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Predictive modeling the past
No full textUnderstanding long-run economic growth requires reliable historical data, yet the vast majority of long-run economic time series are drawn from incomplete records with significant temporal and geographic gaps. Conventional solutions to these gaps rely on linear regressions that risk bias or overfitting when data are scarce. We introduce “past predictive modeling,” a framework that leverages machine learning and out-of-sample predictive modeling techniques to reconstruct representative historical time series from scarce data. Validating our approach using nominal wage data from England, 1300-1900, we show that this new method leads to more accurate and generalizable estimates, with bootstrapped standard errors 72% lower than benchmark linear regressions. Beyond just bettering accuracy, these improved wage estimates for England yield new insights into the impact of the Black Death on inequality, the economic geography of pre-industrial growth, and productivity over the long-run
Pandemics, capital allocation and structural change
No full textThe economic impact of pandemics is commonly studied using theoretical models that assume constant returns to scale and no factor movements. This article argues that a new economic geography model with increasing returns to scale and capital mobility better explains the effects of pandemics in modern economies. Our model predicts that pandemics shape where investments are made, leading to long-term impacts on economic development. To test this, we examine the consequences of the Great Influenza Pandemic on credit allocation and structural transformation in Spain from 1915 to 1929. Our research shows that credit growth was lower in regions with high mortality. Quantitatively, a one standard deviation increase in flu-driven mortality decreases credit (per capita) by 13.6%. We also document that this flu-driven reallocation of credit resulted in an increase in relative urban GDP in low mortality rate regions. A one standard deviation increase in flu-driven credit raises relative urban GDP by 9.5%
HSD8 A case-study on the implementation of the Population Health Agreement for Inclisiran in England
No full textThe National Health Service (NHS) and Novartis entered into a Population Health Agreement (PHA) to supply Inclisiran to patients in primary care. The drug was recommended for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients unresponsive to statins. The PHA aimed to treat 300,000 patients within three years. We investigate the number of dispensed doses and barriers and enablers to the implementation of the deal
HTA23 Broadening the evidence base: incorporating environmental considerations Into HTAs
No full textThis systematic review explored how environmental sustainability (ES) metrics, particularly carbon footprint (CF) analyses, are incorporated into HTA and research practices. The aim was to identify methods, examine ES applications, and determine how these approaches can enhance clinical and economic evaluations
The exposome of healthy and accelerated aging across 40 countries
No full textProtective and risk factors can drive healthy or accelerated aging, with distinct environments modulating their effects. The impact of the exposome—the combined physical and social exposures experienced throughout life—on accelerated aging remains unknown. We assessed delayed and accelerated aging in 161,981 participants from 40 countries (45.09% female; mean age, 67.06; s.d., 9.85) by measuring biobehavioral age gaps (BBAGs), defined as the difference between estimated age from protective and risk factors and chronological age, in cross-sectional and longitudinal designs. BBAGs predicted chronological age, followed by regional and exposomal factor analyses, linked to accelerated aging. Europe led in healthy aging, while Egypt and South Africa showed the greatest acceleration; Asia and Latin America fell in between (Cliff’s delta (δd) = 0.15–0.52; all P 0.37, P < 0.0001). BBAGs predicted future functional (r (Pearson correlation) = −0.33, P < 1 × 10−15, d = 0.70) and cognitive declines (r = −0.22, P < 1 × 10−15, d = 0.44), and larger BBAGs (P < 0.0001, d = 1.55). Healthy and accelerated aging are influenced by physical, social and sociopolitical exposomes, with considerable disparities across nations
Reconciliation or justice: what role does truth play in Mexico's redress for victims of atrocities?
No full textSince 2018, the concepts of truth, justice, and reconciliation have become increasingly important in the Mexican State’s judicial agenda. In Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidential term, two Truth Commissions were established to investigate cases of mass atrocities that have deeply affected the country’s social fabric. The first Truth Commission was established to look into the “Ayotzinapa Case” —a brutal episode of violence resulting in the disappearance of forty-three students. The second Truth Commission sought historical clarification of the atrocities committed in Mexico between 1965 and 1990, a time of political violence commonly known as the “Dirty War”. Despite sharing the same institutional name (commission) and being based on the same ideal (truth), closer examination reveals a conceptual split in their mechanisms and goals. This article shows that the Truth Commission for the Dirty War (“MEH”) revolves around a reconciliatory view, while the Truth Commission for the Ayotzinapa Case (“COVAJ”) prioritizes a sense of retributive justice. The article demonstrates why the selection of one political objective (e.g., reconciliation) resulted in the exclusion of another (e.g., justice) and how truth works inside each political process
Identity politics of the left and right: an interview with Chetan Bhatt
No full textChetan Bhatt is the Anthony Giddens Professor of Social Theory in the Department of Sociology at the London School of Economics. Chetan’s research has looked at the global rise of religious fundamentalism, the international authoritarian far right, and the power of nationalism and racism historically and in contemporary political movements. Some of this work is discussed in his TED talk: Dare to refuse the origin myths that claim who you are. His most recent book is entitled The Revolutionary Road To Me (2025). This book looks at the way the rise of identity politics, and its underlying form of ‘identitarianism’, has paralysed the Western political Left. He argues that identity politics has divided progressive and Leftist political parties in a highly damaging way, leaving organisations and campaigning groups mired in intractable conflicts. Most importantly, the predominance of identity politics has diverted the Left from its founding political mission – addressing the human misery caused by the vast increases in poverty, inequality and violence across the world, driven as this is by capitalism’s relentless drive for accumulation. He also discusses the way contemporary corporate capitalism has adopted the language of identity politics, transforming what were once genuine demands for addressing discrimination into a corporate branding exercise. The form of identity politics on the Left, in so degrading the capacities of the Left to address people’s real concerns, has created a golden opportunity for Right to respond with their own forms of identity politics based on racist nationalism and misogyny, which is paraded before the populace as though it is they who now represent the interests of ‘ordinary people’ against ‘cultural elites’
Spatial economics for low- and middle-income countries
No full textResearch at the intersection of development and spatial economics is increasingly important to address pressing issues in rapidly-urbanizing cities in low- and middle-income countries. This handbook chapter presents the canonical spatial model and then explores it through the lens of development economics, pointing out the “on-the-ground” facts of missing markets, frictions, and context-specific parameters that are often absent in applications of the model. We then discuss what the existing literature and the spatial model tell us about the optimal allocation of labor across space. We close by highlighting exciting possibilities for future work that integrates the spatial model with the reality of low- and middle-income countries