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Could Reform UK’s surge in the polls translate into power?
No full textA number of recent polls place Reform UK at first or second place. The electoral system makes it difficult for this surge to translate into power, but the volatility of the electorate makes it possible. Laura Sera and Jenevieve Treadwell highlight the gender and age dynamics of Reform’s would be voters
A review of off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning
No full textReinforcement learning (RL) is one of the most vibrant research frontiers in machine learning and has been recently applied to solve a number of challenging problems. In this paper, we primarily focus on off-policy evaluation (OPE), one of the most fundamental topics in RL. In recent years, a number of OPE methods have been developed in the statistics and computer science literature. We provide a discussion on the efficiency bound of OPE, some of the existing state-of-the-art OPE methods, their statistical properties and some other related research directions that are currently actively explored
Reforming the funding of long-term care for older people: costs and distributional impacts of planned changes in England
No full textReforms to the means tests in England for state-financed long-term care were planned for implementation in 2025. They included a lifetime limit (cap) on how much an individual must contribute to their care, with the state meeting subsequent care costs. We present projections of the costs and distributional impacts of these reforms for older people, using two linked simulation models which draw on a wide range of data. We project that by 2038 public spending on long-term care for older people in England would be about 14% higher than without the reforms. While the main direct beneficiaries of the lifetime cap would have been the better off who currently receive no state help with their care costs, the reforms also treated capital assets more generously than the current system, helping people with more modest incomes and wealth. When analysing the impacts of the reforms it is therefore important to consider the whole reform package. Our results depend on a range of assumptions, and the impacts of the reforms would be sensitive to the levels of the cap and other reformed parameters of the means test on implementation
Valentin Jeutner, The reasonable person: a legal biography, Cambridge University Press, 2024, 252 pp, hb £95.00
No full textBook Review. Waiting for the revolution to end: Syrian displacement, time and subjectivity, by Charlotte Al-Khalili
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Beyond leading by example: enhanced EU-LAC climate cooperation—the case of Brazil, Chile and Mexico
No full textThis article analyses the impact of the European Green Deal (EGD) on the EU’s claim to climate leadership, the extent to which this affects cooperation between the EU and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and how the EDG could help enable the net-zero transition. The EGD restates the EU’s quest for climate leadership which has heretofore been prominently ideational and exemplary (directional). However, the EGD’s implementation is expected to have a significant impact on partner countries. Both conflict and cooperation could arise amid shifting geopolitical alliances and insufficient climate action. Building on the literature on the EU’s climate and EGD diplomacy, expert analyses, closed-door working groups and elite interviews, this article contends there is scope for the EU to transcend directional climate leadership and deepen entrepreneurial (coalition-led) and structural leadership, both through coercion and assistance, and makes the case for expanding cooperation with Latin America. The main conclusions are: (1) for the EU to retain its climate leadership it needs an overarching green deal diplomacy strategy that helps LAC countries adapt to the European decarbonisation strategy; (2) Enhanced entrepreneurial (diplomatic) and structural leadership (through assistance) can result from strengthening climate governance in areas such as climate laws, scientific advisory boards, citizens participation and policy instruments including taxonomies and emission trading systems; (3) structural leadership through assistance could also be strengthened by ramping up climate finance (e.g. via a revised Global Gateway), furthering climate-proof trade agreements and supporting just transition initiatives
Medium and long-run trends in interest rates: causes and implications for monetary policy
No full textR-star is a useful benchmark for the real interest rate. Sometimes, it refers to the steadystate equilibrium rate where savings equal investment (m), other times to the long-run value for the yield on safe government bonds (y), other times to the counterfactual return earned by inputs when the level of output is at potential (ρ), and some other times to the neutral monetary policy rate at which inflation is at its target value (i). This paper first documents the differing trends of these four R-stars in the quarter-century before the pandemic. Then, it proposes a general framework to make sense of their joint evolution, together with how they affect inflation. Looking ahead, if the steep rise in y and the slight fall in m observed since the pandemic until 2023 become new trends, the framework points to what will be the new challenges facing fiscal and monetary policy
From the margins to the center of global environmental governance: international business at the Stockholm (1972), Rio (1992), and Johannesburg (2002) conferences
No full textThis chapter examines the evolution of international business engagement in global environmental governance from the 1972 Stockholm Conference to the 2002 Johannesburg Summit. It traces how business actors moved from a marginal position in early environmental diplomacy to become central partners in sustainable development initiatives by the early 2000s. The analysis focuses on three pivotal UN environmental summits—Stockholm (1972), Rio (1992), and Johannesburg (2002)—as key temporal focal points. Drawing on archival materials and recent scholarship, this chapter develops a periodization of business involvement that highlights the shift from initial marginalization and reactive stances to proactive engagement and growing influence. It argues that business leaders learned important lessons from their exclusion at Stockholm, leading them to strengthen ties with the UN, develop more sophisticated lobbying strategies, and promote business-friendly approaches, such as voluntary initiatives and partnerships. By the 1992 Rio Summit, industry had gained prominence in shaping the sustainable development agenda. The 2002 Johannesburg Summit then cemented business’s central role through public-private partnerships. This analysis provides a framework for understanding the long-term patterns of corporate influence and the private sector’s journey from the margins to the center of global environmental governance
