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Carbon pricing, compensation, and competitiveness: lessons from UK manufacturing
No full textCarbon pricing is often paired with compensation to carbon-intensive firms to mitigate the risk of carbon leakage. This paper empirically examines the effects of indirect carbon cost compensation on UK manufacturing firms. Using administrative microdata, we combine difference-in-differences and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to exploit firm-level eligibility criteria and identify the causal impact of compensation. We find that compensation reduces output contraction but also increases electricity consumption and emissions. These findings highlight a key policy trade-off – while compensation can help protect firms’ competitiveness and reduce leakage risks, it may also delay industrial decarbonization and increase the overall cost of achieving national emission targets
Winning hearts and minds? How the United States reassured during the Russo-Ukrainian war
No full textDecades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 24 countries on six continents. Our novel data, which cover rarely surveyed publics, illuminates conditions under which restraint or resolve reassure. We introduce theoretical mechanisms that predict individuals’ propensity to be reassured by resolve or restraint: prior beliefs about the use of force and geopolitical positioning. The results challenge dominant scholarly narratives. Respondents worldwide were reassured by restraint. Forgoing direct intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian War strengthened the U.S.-led order, successfully balancing NATO members’ interests with those of U.S. Indo-Pacific and Global South partners
The effects of low-carbon transitions on labour productivity: analysing UK electricity, heat, and mobility with a techno-economic simulation model
No full textThe low-carbon transition is generally portrayed as involving costs to the economy through lower productivity and generating benefits through avoided impacts of climate change. This mainstream economic narrative hinges on two critical assumptions that stem from an allocation perspective: that low-carbon technologies are more expensive than high-carbon ones, and that low-carbon investment displaces resources from their optimal allocation. However, evidence increasingly suggests that neither assumption may be true. Drawing on evolutionary and complexity economics and making different, empirically-supported, assumptions about innovation dynamics, structural change, and the endogenous creation of finance, this paper examines the impacts on UK labour productivity of a low-carbon transition in the power, transport and heat sectors using a coupled macro-econometric and technology model (E3ME-FTT). Using realistic assumptions, the model results show moderate but positive productivity increases in the transition that stem from technological learning-by-doing and productivity growth in specific sectors, which induces investments that ultimately lead to expanded economic capacity across the economy
How Africa eats: trade, food security and climate risks
No full textWhy do images and reports of starving and malnourished Africans appear so often in the media? What are the actual dimensions of the problem? What has trade and climate got to do with it? In How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, award-winning author David Luke and a team of researchers seek to answer these questions, to explain why Africa struggles with food security and what can be done about it. The intersection between trade, agriculture policies, and climate risks is fundamental to this enquiry. Using a data-led approach, this book examines in detail what Africa eats and where and how it is produced. It investigates how finance, investment, foreign aid, institutions, actors and capacities interact with policies in holding Africa back from becoming an agricultural powerhouse despite having 60 per cent of the world’s arable land area. The book evaluates how climate change exacerbates the continent’s challenges and scrutinises the sustainability of production systems in the face of environmental volatility. Experts in trade policy, international law and development unpack the barriers that currently limit the growth of intra-African food trade, including the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and model the expected impact of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agricultural trade. The extent of food deprivation in Africa is sobering. The United Nations estimates that a fifth of the African population is undernourished, and a quarter live with the day-to-day experience of severe food insecurity. How Africa Eats provides a vital, open access resource for academics, policymakers and trade experts seeking to address the continent’s food insecurity in the face of urgent threats from climate change, trade barriers and complex policy challenges
Food security in the African Continental Free Trade Area legal framework
No full textThis chapter reviews the provisions in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on non-tariff barriers. The first part of the chapter highlights where the AfCFTA Agreement, protocols and annexes explicitly refer to food security and agriculture and what these provisions entail. Comparisons are made with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, which is discussed in Chapter 9. The second part of the chapter turns the spotlight on NTB provisions in the AfCFTA legal instruments. Finally, in line with an underlying theme of this book that considers the intersection between trade, food security and climate, the third part of the chapter considers environmental provisions in the AfCFTA legal framework
What is the case fatality rate of smallpox?
No full textThis paper uses population smallpox mortality rates in eighteenth-century Sweden and the death toll from the 1707-9 smallpox epidemic in Iceland to estimate plausible ranges for the case fatality rate (CFR) of the deadly form of smallpox, Variola major, in both its endemic (Sweden) and epidemic (Iceland) form. We find that smallpox CFRs could be extremely high (40-53%) when smallpox was epidemic and attacked a population where both children and adults were susceptible as in Iceland. However, where smallpox was endemic and therefore a disease of childhood, as in Sweden, a better estimate of the CFR is 8-10%. This is far lower than the consensus CFR of 20% to 30%. Part of the differences between the CFRs studied here could be due to differences in the inherent virulence of smallpox in the two contexts. However, we argue that social factors are more likely to explain the differences. Where both adults and children were susceptible to smallpox, smallpox epidemics fundamentally disrupted household tasks such as fetching water and food preparation and prevented parents from nursing their sick children, dramatically increasing the CFR. Thus, when historians and epidemiologists give CFRs of smallpox, they should consider the population and context rather than relying on an implausible intrinsic CFR of 20% to 30%
HTA92 Diffusion and launch sequencing of cell and gene therapies across the USA, Europe, Canada and Australia
No full textCell and gene therapies (CGTs) represent a significant advancement in healthcare, providing potential cures for previously untreatable conditions. However, they often carry high prices and their availability across settings remains mixed. This study examines the diffusion of FDA approved CGTs in Canada, Australia, France, Germany, England and Scotland
China defenders from abroad: exploring pro-China foreign political influencers on X/Twitter
No full textPolitical influencers are social media users who attempt to shape others’ political attitudes and behaviors through personal influences. While prior research has mainly examined political influencers in Western democracies, this study shifts attention to an international context, focusing on the self-presentation strategies and discursive frames used by non-Chinese political influencers who support China on Twitter (X). Through a thematic analysis of online profiles and a frame analysis of 3000 tweets by 10 influencers, we identified two self-presentation strategies: “the explorer,” which highlights the influencer’s attractiveness, closeness, and passionate authenticity, and “the expert,” which emphasizes expertise and intellectual authenticity. We further propose a typology of four frames used by the influencers to defend or promote China: “Western Hypocrisy,” which criticizes Western double standards; “Western Threat,” which presents the West as a major threat to global security and growth; “System Superiority,” which promotes China’s political model against Western models; and “Common Destiny,” which envisions a prosperous future shared by China’s global partners. We argue that although the political affiliations of these influencers remain ambiguous and difficult to determine, they have become de facto contributors to China’s quest for global reputation in a digital age
The local injustice of bankruptcy: geographical variation in access to debt relief in England
No full textPersonal insolvency law offers a vital safety net for individuals in financial difficulty. Nonetheless, disparities arise in access to the benefits of debt relief offered by insolvency law. In a context of geographical inequality and local gaps in access to justice, our original empirical study explores the substantial variation in personal insolvency rates across English local authority districts (LADs) – both in terms of total personal insolvencies, and of the proportion of insolvencies composed of longer‐term, expensive repayment plans (individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs)) compared to rapid debt discharge procedures (bankruptcy and debt relief orders). Our model explains much of the local variation in total insolvencies and finds higher insolvency rates in LADs with lower median income levels. Crucially, however, economic variables do not explain local variation in the proportion of insolvencies composed of IVAs. Despite IVAs being designed for higher‐income ‘can pay’ debtors, the IVA proportion is higher in LADs with lower median income levels. These findings imply that IVAs are not ‘rationally sorted’ based on economic conditions and add important evidence to the case for reforming personal insolvency law to address apparent inefficiencies and unfairness
Community involvement and socioeconomic achievement gap in 14 sub-Saharan African Countries
No full textAs a global trend, sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have increasingly received reforms from international organizations (IOs) to improve learning achievements for marginalized groups by promoting community involvement in school governance. The idea is to mobilize local resources and lessen the ‘burden’ on the central government. This paper examines the association between community involvement in school affairs and inequality in achievement by socioeconomic status (SES) using data from the Program for the Analysis of Education Systems (PASEC) 2019 survey of 14 Francophone SSA countries. Results suggest that community involvement is not significantly associated with the SES math achievement gap and does not substantially explain the gap. Contrarily, school resources substantially explain achievement gaps between lower- and higher-SES students. Our findings remain similar in several specifications, including using different inequality measures. We argue that involving local communities may not fully address the challenges of insufficient school resources and individual-level poverty in SSA