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Making the invisible visible: the impact of revealing indoor air pollution on behavior and welfare
No full textExposure to ambient air pollution has been shown to be detrimental to human health and productivity, and has motivated many policies to reduce such pollution. However, given that humans spend 90% of their time indoors, it is important to understand the degree of exposure to Indoor Air Pollution (IAP), and, if high, ways to reduce it. We design and implement a field experiment in London that monitors households’ IAP and then randomly reveals their IAP in real-time. At baseline, we find that IAP is worse than ambient air pollution when residents are at home and that for 38% of the time, IAP is above World Health Organization standards. Additionally, we observe a large household income-IAP gradient, larger than the income-ambient pollution gradient, highlighting large income disparities in IAP exposure. During our field experiment, we find that the randomized revelation reduces IAP by 17% (1.9 µg/m3 ) overall and 34% (5 µg/m3 ) during occupancy time. We show that the mechanism is households using more natural ventilation as a result of the feedback (i.e., opening up doors and windows). Finally, in terms of welfare, we find that: (i) households have a willingness to pay of £4.8 ($6) for every 1 µg/m3 reduction in indoor PM2.5; (ii) households have a higher willingness to pay for mitigation than for full information; (iii) households have a price elasticity of IAP monitor demand around -0.75; and (iv) a £1 subsidy for an IAP monitor or an air purifier infinite marginal value of public funds, i.e., a Pareto improvement
Beneath the trees: the influence of natural capital on shadow price dynamics in a macroeconomic model with uncertainty
No full textWe investigate the impact of incorporating natural capital dynamics on optimal allocation in an economy subject to uncertainty. We present new estimates on climate damages to natural capital and elasticities of substitution between natural capital and other production inputs. Using these estimates, we examine how shadow prices vary across model specifications and parameter calibrations. Our findings indicate that the social cost of carbon is 12 percent higher in a model incorporating natural capital compared to a standard DICE-type model. Furthermore, the social cost of carbon is highly sensitive to the elasticity of substitution in the final output production f unction. Accounting f or t he stochastic nature of productivity further increases the social cost of carbon by 0.13 percent to 39 percent, depending on the inclusion of habit formation
Association of psychological resilience and its trajectories with frailty in middle-aged and older populations: a prospective cohort study
No full textBackground: Whether frailty risk is affected by psychological resilience (PR) and its long-term progression remains unclear. We aimed to estimate associations between them in middle-aged and older populations. Methods: Prospective cohorts were constructed of adults aged ≥50 years from 2006 to 2022 in the Health and Retirement Study. PR was measured by the simplified resilience score. PR trajectories were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling. Frailty was assessed by the Fried frailty phenotype. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate the associations. Results: 15,110 participants were included (median [interquartile range] age = 63 [56–73] years; 8717 [57.69 %] females). Compared with the Q 1 level of PR, its Q 2, Q 3, and Q 4 decreased the risk of frailty by 17 % (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.83, 95 % confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.75–0.91), 32 % (HR = 0.68, 95%CI: 0.61–0.76) and 48 % (HR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.45–0.58), respectively, with a significant age-PR interaction effect. 4783 participants were included to model trajectories of PR over an eight-year period, identifying three trajectories: low resilience (5.83 %), moderate resilience (33.45 %), and high resilience (60.72 %). Compared with high resilience, moderate resilience and low resilience increased the risk of frailty by 43 % (HR = 1.43, 95 % CI: 1.22–1.68) and 104 % (HR = 2.04, 95 % CI: 1.59–2.63). Conclusions: Higher levels of psychological resilience were associated with a reduced risk of frailty. Middle-aged individuals with lower psychological resilience may be important target populations for frailty prevention and management. Monitoring trajectories of psychological resilience is important for early frailty screening, prognosis assessment, and intervention
What is the impact of natural disasters on sovereign risk? Expect the unexpected!
No full textUsing a rich high-frequency and a cross-country panel of daily sovereign CDS spreads, we employ local projections to estimate the dynamic response of sovereign risk to the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that climatological and, to a lesser extent, hydrological events have a small and short-lived effect on the sovereign CDS spreads. We also explore whether anticipatory effects arise before a disaster unfolds, and confirm that the expectations of imminent disasters do not substantially affect CDS pricing. On the other hand, we show that the sovereign risk is dominated by regional and global financial spillovers, thus reflecting the systemic nature of the sovereign credit markets. Our results also suggest that governments may benefit from developing disaster-specific risk reduction and fiscal resilience strategies, as well as early-warning models that integrate disaster forecasting into risk monitoring frameworks. Sovereigns’ coordination and risk-pooling mechanisms may also be essential in times of regional calamities. Moreover, portfolio hedging strategies should include short-term protective positions in the vulnerable sovereigns during known disaster seasons. Disaster-integrated ESG strategies could also enhance the portfolio resilience
The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom
No full textThis paper examines the macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom (UK). We use individual-level data to estimate how diagnoses of six major diseases affect labor market transitions and combine these with a tractable growth model with age-specific productivity and labor force participation to quantify the impact of chronic disease on UK economic growth. Using a novel machine learning approach to classify National Health Service (NHS) cost data, we also provide new estimates of disease-specific treatment costs. Our findings indicate that a 20% reduction in disease incidence would increase annual GDP by 0.99% after five years and 1.51% after ten years. Most of the gains are due to increased participation in the labor force, especially among workers aged 50 to 65 years. Reductions in mental health conditions and musculoskeletal conditions contribute the most to these effects. Our analysis points to three important features of preventative health policies: (1) the potential welfare gains are substantial and manifest themselves in terms of both improved population health and increased output growth, (2) only around 40% of long-term effects appear after five years, and (3) the 50–65 age group experiences the largest labor force participation gains. This last feature is due to two factors: improved health at those ages prevents transitions into health-related inactivity and a larger share of workers reaches this age band as a result of reduced transitions into inactivity at earlier ages. This compounding effect underscores the importance of targeting prevention efforts at earlier ages
The origins of dual malapportionment: long-run evidence from Argentina
No full textLegislative malapportionment often results from a credible commitment between elites from core urban regions and peripheral rural regions that favors the latter. Research shows that such agreements typically arise at critical junctures like the birth of federations, constitutional conventions, and transitions to democracy. But why do elites in core regions, often the most populous and prosperous, accept to be persistently underrepresented? Why do these elites not renege and try to reverse their fortunes in the legislature? We argue that core region(s) may become overrepresented in the executive cabinet as a compensation mechanism. We evaluate this argument leveraging a novel dataset of all ministers and legislators in Argentina (1860–2015). We confirm that legislative malapportionment has existed since the 1800s and has underrepresented large provinces, notably Buenos Aires. However, we show that existing literature has overlooked cabinet malapportionment—Buenos Aires has historically been overrepresented in the executive, balancing its legislative underrepresentation. We argue that “dual malapportionment” facilitated state formation by lowering the risk of interregional conflict in the 19th century. In the 20th, we provide evidence suggesting that Buenos Aires’ demographic and economic dominance, as well as its dense elite networks, facilitated the persistence of its cabinet dominance. Our findings highlight the informal dynamics of inter-branch compensation mechanisms among elites, which may enable the emergence and maintenance of heterogeneous polities over time
Long-term care needs and fuel poverty among older people: beyond energy consumption and affordability
No full textBoth financial disadvantage and poor housing conditions are recognised as social determinants of poorer health and health inequalities across and within countries. In the UK and some other nations, low income and housing problems in interaction manifest as ‘fuel poverty’—a measure of a household’s ability to keep their homes warm. In these countries, tackling fuel poverty has become a priority, not least because of the known negative effects on health. Nevertheless, there is no gold standard measurement of fuel poverty, and there is also, more importantly, scant evidence on the relationship between fuel poverty and the development of long-term care needs among older people, which is important as understanding this relationship could inform preventative policy interventions aimed at reducing care needs and associated costs. Older people spend a larger proportion of their time indoors and the role of fuel poverty has wider health and social care impacts that go beyond immediate household hardship. This paper i) develops a data-driven measure of fuel poverty that goes beyond household income and energy consumption, ii) explores whether fuel poverty is associated with the development of care needs, an increase in care needs, and/or a decline in mental health among older people, and iii) whether there are any inequalities in the role played by fuel poverty across more potentially vulnerable groups. We use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a large representative sample of people aged 50 or over. Structural Equation Modelling was used to provide a latent and comprehensive definition of fuel poverty. We found that fuel poverty is associated with a greater risk of developing long-term care needs and worse mental health. We also found that fuel poverty is multidimensional and as such, influences the development of care needs from many fronts. We provide evidence on the importance of reducing fuel poverty as a potential prevention mechanism of higher (or development of) care needs, and is particularly relevant in the current energy and cost-of-living crisis context in many countries
Introduction to the Handbook on Philanthropy and Social Policy
No full textPhilanthropy at scale has re-emerged as an influential global force within social policy design and programmes. This chapter describes the emerging interest in the academic study of ‘Big Philanthropy’ and highlights the lack of dedicated analysis of philanthropy from a social policy lens, to which the present Handbook is a response. The chapter provides an initial conceptual underpinning for the chapters that follow. It explores the contested and contextual idea of philanthropy and introduces the Handbook's focus on monetary giving at large scale by the wealthy elite. It specifies the boundaries of ‘social policy’ applied in this volume, which encompasses a broad range of activities, fields, and actors. It introduces a set of current debates and arguments about the role of philanthropy within social policy and within democratic societies more generally – debates that have become more frequent and significant with the global expansion of philanthropy. The chapter concludes with short overviews of the remaining 23 chapters in this volume
An international validation of the Stigma Impact Scale with people with dementia
No full textObjective: A robust psychometric instrument is imperative to measure the devastating impact of self‐stigma in dementia to adequately inform policy and practice. Our objective was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Stigma Impact Scale in a global sample of people with dementia. Method: Data were analysed from the World Alzheimer Report including 710 participants in 42 countries who completed the SIS. Detailed psychometric analyses of the SIS included estimating reliability, convergent validity with the Warwick‐Edinburgh mental Well‐being Scale (WEMWBS) and the Dementia Quality of Life instrument (DQoL), the factor structure of the measure (through both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis). Results: The SIS and its subscales had ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ internal consistency (Cronbach's Alpha: 0.883–0.943). However, convergent validity correlations were not in the predicted direction; no significant correlations were noted between the SIS and the WEMWBS and DQoL. Factor analysis suggested marginal improvements in global fit indices for the observed model compared to the theoretical model, though none met the thresholds for acceptable fit. The final proposed model had three factors: rejection and secrecy, loneliness and belonging and perceived social isolation. Most SIS items were strongly endorsed by participants. Conclusion: The SIS is the most robustly tested instrument measuring self‐stigma in dementia. The SIS has good to excellent reliability and relevance to the target population, however future work is required to improve the factor structure of the scale. Further the results of the validity testing pose a number of theoretical and empirical questions for future research
Early vs. deferred catheter ablation of ventricular tachycardia in patients of ischaemic substrate: systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical outcomes
No full textAims: Ventricular tachycardia (VT) ablation has been shown to reduce the recurrence of VT episodes, but the timing of performing VT ablation (early; at the time of implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation) or (deferred: after the patient has received ICD shocks) remains controversial. The objective is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of published data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) with the aim of comparing outcome of VT ablation stratified by procedural timing. Methods and results: We conducted a meta-analysis of seven landmark RCTs which included patients with ICM who were either at a high risk of VT or experienced VT/ICD shocks. The primary outcome of VT recurrence was compared according to the timing of performing VT ablation (early vs. deferred). In addition, we also compared the secondary outcome of cardiac mortality. Following a comprehensive search strategy, a total of seven RCTs were included within the final analysis. Based on a pooled analysis, early VT ablation was associated with a significant reduction in the primary outcome [pooled odds ratio (OR) of 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.55–0.95, P 30% vs. those with LVEF 30% amongst this ICM cohort