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The money-currency puzzle: monetary policy and silver trade dominance in early modern Europe, 1575-1680
No full textEconomists often consider that international monetary systems evolved from barter to commodity money, to fixed-exchange rate, to fiat and managed-floating exchange rate regimes. Following this metallic theory of money, scholars characterise early modern Europe as a quasi-silver standard vulnerable to exogenous commodity shocks, where monetary policy was impossible. However, coinage traded at a non-commodity-based market premium, and the Spanish silver real de a ocho held dominant currency status. This dissertation draws on the eight largest European countries’ (Castile, Dutch Republic, England, France, Genoa, Milan, Venice, and Portugal) monetary legislation, mint ownership and foreign exchange rates for the period 1575-1680. This research posits four main findings. First, early modern countries employed exchange-rate and currency price level targeting monetary policies, driven by commercial motivations. The separation between the money of account and coinage (“moneycurrency puzzle”) enabled countries to implement expansionary monetary policies when facing currency scarcity and adverse monetary depreciation. Second, the Spanish real de a ocho’s international currency status was maintained due to Castile’s non-devaluation strategy and merchants’ involvement, ensuring a stable and abundant supply to foreign traders who valued network effects. Third, monetary non-transmission to the foreign exchange and exchange rate misalignment in the long run enabled merchants from countries with exchange-rate targeting policies (France, the Dutch Republic) to acquire Spanish silver more efficiently. Conversely, other merchants had to rely on out-of-market purchase arrangements. Fourth, the international monetary system functioned without central banks, as private actors absorbed metallic shocks and facilitated the global circulation of Spanish currency, which allowed commercial growth. This non-commodity monetary system endured until the 1680s, when the Genoese bankers’ power over the minting of Spanish coins ceased. These findings shed light on the European reversal of trade, as Northwestern merchants displaced former trade powerhouses (Portuguese and Venetian). The 16th- and 17th-century European monetary system marked a departure from both medieval metallic standards and the 18th-century metallist system, suggesting a non-linear evolution of international monetary systems
Ethical governance of artificial intelligence for defence: normative tradeoffs for principle to practice guidance
Get PDFThe rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the defence domain raises challenges for the ethical governance of these systems. A recent shift from the what to the how of AI ethics sees a nascent body of literature published by defence organisations focussed on guidance to implement AI ethics principles. These efforts have neglected a crucial intermediate step between principles and guidance concerning the elicitation of ethical requirements for specifying the guidance. In this article, we outline the key normative choices and corresponding tradeoffs that are involved in specifying guidance for the implementation of AI ethics principles in the defence domain. These correspond to: the AI lifecycle model used; the scope of stakeholder involvement; the accountability goals chosen; the choice of auditing requirements; and the choice of mechanisms for transparency and traceability. We provide initial recommendations for navigating these tradeoffs and highlight the importance of a pro-ethical institutional culture
Business applications of Artificial Intelligence: a framework to categorise AI use cases
Get PDFA significant barrier to AI adoption in the business world is the scarcity of clear, accessible information on how to leverage AI to enhance organisational productivity. Understanding the practical applications of AI is a prerequisite for companies to identify relevant opportunities and develop a strategy to operationalise them. To address this need, the AI Governance and Regulatory Innovation team at The Alan Turing Institute is pursuing a research project to illuminate how businesses in the four BridgeAI priority sectors of agriculture, forestry and fishing, construction, creative industries, and transportation and storage can leverage AI to be more productive. The first milestone of this project is the publication of a framework for categorising and analysing business applications of AI and a brief analysis of sector-specific AI use cases. Our findings are published as a series of five documents: four sector-specific briefings complemented by this paper presenting a framework to categorise and analyse AI use cases. The sector-specific briefings can be accessed from here. The paper on the framework presents the tool that we developed to categorise and analyse AI use cases in a business context. In addition to providing the hermeneutical structure underpinning our research, this tool provides a valuable resource for businesses trying to identify relevant AI opportunities. Companies can use this framework as a starting point to build on and develop their bespoke methodology to identify, select, and implement the right AI solutions. The second milestone of this project will be to refine the framework based on feedback collected after the publication of this first exploratory version and expand its scope to include information about the risks connected to each AI use case and the mitigation strategies that can be adopted to address those risks in that specific context
Cypriot identity as an alternative: grassroots perspectives on Cypriotness and nationalism
No full textThis article examines how Greek Cypriots involved in grassroots pro-peace, left-wing, and anti-authoritarian political initiatives perceive Cypriot identity. Drawing on qualitative surveys conducted between September 2020 and December 2021, thematic analysis was utilised to explore participants’ responses around Cypriot identity. Findings reveal a rejection among participants of Greek and Turkish national identities in favour of a claimed pluralistic Cypriot identity that emphasizes inclusivity and cultural heterogeneity. This Cypriot identity is framed as counter-hegemonic, challenging dominant nationalist narratives, yet remains ambiguously defined, often articulated in terms of what it excludes rather than what it affirms. While most participants viewed Cypriot identity as a potential pathway to intercommunal reconciliation, some participants also raised concerns regarding the possibility of oversimplifying deeper complexities
Violence, race, and imperialism of the European Union's border regime: implications for the EU theory
No full textThis paper explores the border regime of the European Union (EU). It examines how the EU’s ‘southern’ border draws new lines of inclusion/exclusion on distant shores in Africa and shapes the political identity of the EU. ‘The paper brings together several academic disciplines. It works within European Studies, where theorizing of the EU takes place. It also draws on critical border studies, migration studies, and post-colonial scholarship, where the views from the South, Africa in particular - migrant experiences, impact of bordering on foreign states, economies and social relations - are explored. The paper historicises the causes behind Europe-bound migration and argues that the EU border regime is driven by colonial logic and racial violence. The EU border/ing has denigrated African states and their populations through policy, discourse, and practice. It has re-enacted the old colonial dynamics of the EU member states, former empires, and re-entrenched them in a hierarchical global order of the present. Theoretically, the paper brings race, violence, hierarchy, and coloniality into the discussion of European integration. These issues, largely ignored by mainstream EU theories, destabilise our understanding of European Union. Hence, the paper offers a more accurate understanding of the EU that can inform scholarship and practice
Theoretical frameworks on water and society
Get PDFThe natural and social sciences have generated multiple theoretical frameworks on the interplay of water and society. As we will show in this chapter, these theoretical frameworks differ in their focus on specific aspects of this relationship, but they all conceptualize water and society as coevolving. In other words, while biological evolution focuses on a single species' development over time, coevolution proposes that coupled systems change in tandem because of mutual interactions and feedback (Sivapalan & Blöschl, 2015). Drawing from these different perspectives, we will use the term “coupled human-water systems” (CHWSs) to refer to all manifestations of the complex relations between human and water systems, including all processes where water and society coevolve over (potentially multiple) spatial and temporal scales. The approaches have different goals—to understand system behavior, to recommend a course of action, or critique the objective itself. They may seek to explain how the system may have evolved in the past, understand the system as it is today, or predict how the system might evolve in the future. Finally, they focus on different outcomes
Digital health-enabled monitoring strategies for atrial fibrillation detection after embolic stroke of undetermined source: a cost-effectiveness analysis of implantable loop recorders, wearable devices, and usual care
Get PDFIntroduction: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is frequently attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF), yet remains undetected when episodes are brief or asymptomatic. Digital health-enabled cardiac monitoring offers novel pathways for secondary prevention. Implantable loop recorders (ILRs) provide continuous long-term rhythm surveillance, while wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) devices offer greater accessibility but with uncertain diagnostic yield and economic value. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ILR versus wearable AF monitoring and usual care in ESUS. Methods: A cohort-based Markov model simulated 1,000 ESUS patients (mean age 65 years) over a 10-year horizon from the German statutory health insurance perspective. Clinical inputs included AF detection rates (ILR: 15–25%; wearables: 5–10%), risk reduction in ischemic stroke with oral anticoagulation (OAC), and mortality/disability utilities. Costs (EUR 2,024, 3% discount) captured device acquisition, implantation, follow-up, stroke care, and OAC therapy. Outcomes included incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit at willingness-to-pay thresholds of EUR 20,000, EUR 30,000, and EUR 50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, including expected value of perfect information (EVPI), were performed. Results: ILR yielded 0.23 additional QALYs compared with wearables at an incremental cost of EUR 2,160, resulting in a base-case ICER of EUR 9,391/QALY. In a high-risk subgroup, the ICER decreased to EUR 5,520/QALY. Probabilistic analysis demonstrated >90% probability of cost-effectiveness at EUR 30,000/QALY, with moderate EVPI. These findings align with meta-analytic evidence (RR 3.88 for AF detection; RR 0.75 for stroke reduction) and indicate that prolonged monitoring (≥12 months) maximizes yield. Conclusion: Digital health-enabled ILR monitoring is likely cost-effective for AF detection after ESUS, particularly in high-risk patients. Wearables may serve as an adjunct but deliver lower value. Results support targeted ILR implementation in post-ESUS care pathways and integration into digital health-driven guideline and reimbursement frameworks
Scaling up investments in mangrove livelihoods for healthy people and the planet
Get PDFAs part of 2025’s ‘Harmony with nature and sustainable development’ theme for the International Day for Biodiversity, Alice Bian and Elizabeth Robinson discuss how financing the blue economy, specifically in relation to the protection and restoration of mangroves, a vital part of the Earth’s natural capital, could lead to broad health and livelihood benefits for all
