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Transhumanism is quietly influencing UK tech policy
Get PDFAs the UK positions itself as a leader in AI and frontier tech, ideas rooted in transhumanism are starting to influence national policy. From research centres to Whitehall, visions of how technology can integrate with the human body are gaining traction, often without public debate. As trade talks and regulatory decisions unfold, Laurence Radford argues that more transparency and democratic accountability is needed to control these powerful emerging technologies
When cybertroopers shape the crowd: online conformity in Indonesia
Get PDFCyber troop operations in Indonesia don’t persuade citizens with facts — they manufacture consensus through visibility, secrecy, and conformity. Drawing on a field experiment with over 900 Instagram users in Bogor City, Moses H. Siregar (recipient of the 2024/25 SEAC Student Dissertation Fieldwork Grant) explains how buzzers subtly shift online behaviour and why this matters for democratic accountability
Institutions and economic development on the northern frontier: the economic history of colonialism in Canada
No full textCanada is typically classified as a settler economy, similar to other European offshoots such as the United States and Australia. Development patterns in these economics have been connected to the establishment of inclusive institutions in the colonial period that facilitated the emergence of sustained economic growth. This chapter considers the evidence on institutional frameworks and development trajectories in Canada prior to Confederation in 1867. Canada’s colonial origins were dominated by resource-intensive staple extraction, which delayed the development of institutions supporting permanent settlement. When settlement did take root in New France, seigneurial land tenure was introduced, and the chapter explores whether these potentially coercive arrangements were a drag on development. Finally, the chapter examines how institutions and economic development under colonialism interacted with Canada’s Indigenous populations
Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Get PDFComprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality—are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study—part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023—aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950–2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5–14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15–49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0–61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59–4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2–38·4) over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8–67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5–14 years, 25–29 years, and 30–39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5–14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950–2021 period) and for females aged 15–29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6–51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4–48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2–76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3–71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6–74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2–69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0–76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2–71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950–2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world. Gates Foundation
How undocumented people override a marginalized immigrant status through entrepreneurship
No full textDrawing from a qualitative dataset of 41 in-depth interviews with undocumented immigrant entrepreneurs in California and 819 applications to a state-funded entrepreneurship grant program, we investigate why individuals marginalized by legal and social barriers pursue entrepreneurship despite its inherent risks. While existing research highlights the economic motivations and consequences of entrepreneurship, the role of social status motivations and implications remains underexplored. Our study addresses this gap by examining how social status shapes entrepreneurial activity among undocumented immigrants. Findings reveal that undocumented immigrants use entrepreneurship to engage in the process of “immigrant status overriding,” employing it to counteract stigma, gain social recognition, and earn respect within their communities and broader society. Organizational support and access to resources are critical enablers of this process, while participants’ motivations transcend economic survival, reflecting a profound desire for dignity and social status. By framing entrepreneurship as both an economic and socially transformative activity, this study contributes to the literature on marginalized entrepreneurship, social mobility, and status characteristics theory
The short-term effects of regional investment tax credits: early evidence from energy communities
No full textThe political economy of industrial policy depends on how investment-oriented policies affect economic outcomes within a political cycle. We provide new evidence on the short-term economic impacts of regional investment policy through the first empirical analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy community tax credit. We find that the credit had limited effects on unemployment, wages, and labour force participation in its first two years, although effects increase late in the sample and are stronger in communities experiencing the highest levels of investment ex post. Our findings suggest that the tangible short-run economic benefits of investment credits may be limited
My neighbor the gringo: commercialized intimacies and newcomer hospitality in a Rio de Janeiro favela
Get PDFDuring the past two decades, foreigners have acquired housing stock in many of Rio de Janeiro's oldest and most iconic favelas, or self‐built neighborhoods, and invested in capital improvements, with an eye toward turning private residences into lodging accommodations. These new arrivals, mainly from the Global North, have altered social milieus and property values. The proliferation of favela hostels has signaled a market‐led displacement of residents and a reproduction of the urban periphery. The present essay asks what an anthropology of hospitality looks like amid these emergent spaces of commodified culture and transnational mobilities. This curious social arrangement wherein newcomers play the role of hosts inflects debates over favelas' economic trajectories and shifting status in the cultural imaginary. Newcomer hosts both aestheticize and monetize a presumed generosity, vitality, and promiscuity of working‐class residents. Hospitality as cultural rule meets the favela as unruly culture. The essay explores ethnographically how the concept of convivência, or living together, comes to describe an aspiration to rework urban change amid class and racial anxieties about place‐belonging and identity. The emergence of foreigner‐owned accommodations in Rio's favelas reveals a confluence of global slum imaginaries and global real estate interests, and how resident hosts and traveler guests experience the attendant contradictions in the everyday
Ruptures as imagined and theorized: symbolic resources for dealing with the unexpected
Get PDFWhat is the relationship between our theories of rupture (which view it as a basis for learning and development) and narratives of rupture (myths, novels, films, etc.)? On the one hand there are striking convergences. Both entail a variant of the following sequence: steady state, breach, crisis, and resolution or transformation. But, on the other hand, there are important differences. Narratives are multi-functional: they allow us to approach our fears, be entertained, pre-imagine crises, and they can become symbolic resources within crises, helping us to navigate ruptures. We argue that, rather than being mirrors of rupture, narratives of rupture are help us to navigate ruptures. This is formalized in model that shows how narratives enable us to pre-imagine ruptures, identify the early warning signs of a rupture, support our problem-solving, and subsequently narrate our rupture experiences. The model emphasizes the limits of narratives as symbolic resources within ruptures. Narrative guidance can fail, canalizing and constraining semiotic mediation in unhelpful ways. Due to inherent limitations of narratives as resources for ruptures, we propose that narratives also often provide meta-cultural guidance to ignore cultural guidance
Diverging views on healthcare co-creation: the social representations of telemedicine in the Italian press
Get PDFRecent technological progress has led to several telemedicine services and tools. However, telemedicine is still in its early stages, and its potential has yet to be fully exploited. This study aims to analyse how telemedicine is represented by the Italian press, gauging its relevance in public discourse and investigating the frames used to communicate about telemedicine in the press. The methodology comprised qualitative and quantitative text analyses: (1) identifying the total number of Italian newspaper articles (1990–2022) on the topic through a salience analysis; (2) analysing 5,205 representative headlines from six Italian newspapers using frame analysis. Salience analysis shows that telemedicine remains an emerging topic, often discussed in correspondence with specific issues (e.g. COVID-19). Framing analysis shows that telemedicine is represented through eight frames predominantly represented in terms of both clinical and economic advantages. Emerging representations of telemedicine within the Italian press emphasize its advantages, portraying it positively. However, as it often happens with emergent technologies, telemedicine encounters possible antecedents for resistance. Thus, the identified frames highlight how a segment of public opinion considers telemedicine as a tool that improves collaboration through patients, healthcare professionals and providers to co-create value for the socio-cultural environment
Global evidence on the income elasticity of willingness to pay, relative price changes and public natural capital values
Get PDFWhile the global economy continues to grow, ecosystem services tend to stagnate or decline. Economic theory has shown how such shifts in relative scarcities can be reflected in project appraisal and accounting, but empirical evidence has been sparse to put theory into practice. To estimate relative price changes (RPCs) for ecosystem services to be used for making such adjustments, we perform a global meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies to derive income elasticities of marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem services to proxy the degree of limited substitutability. Based on 735 income-WTP pairs from 396 studies, we find an income elasticity of WTP of around 0.6. Combined with good-specific growth rates, we estimate an RPC of ecosystem services of around 1.7% per year. In an application to natural capital valuation of forest ecosystem services by the World Bank, we show that natural capital should be uplifted by around 40%. Our assessment of aggregate public natural capital yields a larger value adjustment of between 58 and 97%, depending on the discount rate. We discuss implications for policy appraisal and for estimates of natural capital in comprehensive wealth accounts