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The role of tax-benefit systems in reducing the gender income gap in Latin America
No full textThis paper aims to assess the extent to which cash transfers, direct taxes, and social insurance contributions help to reduce gender income inequalities in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. We apply microsimulation techniques to household survey data and allocate incomes within the household, assuming that each person retains the income they receive (e.g., earnings, benefits targeting mothers) and pays taxes and social insurance contributions on an individual basis according to each country’s rules. Then, we compare gender income ratios based on market (before taxes and benefits) and disposable (after taxes and benefits) income. Our results show that, at the bottom of the distribution, tax-benefit systems significantly reduce gender income disparities in most countries due to the effect of social assistance benefits received by mothers in poor households. Additionally, we find that women have substantially higher poverty rates than men based on individual disposable income. Gender differences in poverty fade away when income is pooled at the nuclear family level and, even more so, at the household level
The wilful rejection of psychological and behavioural interventions
No full textPsychology and behavioural science play a key role in the development, testing, and implementation of interventions aimed at addressing societal challenges. Some of these interventions have been impactful in shaping policy decisions, but their successful real-world implementation is beset by challenges, including a large number of people who might benefit from an intervention choosing to ignore it. However, there is almost no research on why people wilfully reject participating in an intervention: they notice it, consider participation, and decide against it. Addressing this knowledge gap is of critical importance for improving intervention uptake. Drawing on the literature on wilful ignorance, we propose a Bayesian model of the wilful rejection of psychological and behavioural interventions. People's prior beliefs about the relevance of an intervention, its effectiveness, and the goals and reliability of the intervention's source, strongly inform the probability of people wilfully rejecting an intervention when they come across it. Based on this model, we argue that people may downgrade their perceptions of the source's reliability if they perceive the intervention itself to be inefficacious, and that using intervention sources with high perceived reliability among target audiences is key to optimising intervention uptake
Structural properties in the diffusion of the solar photovoltaic in Italy: individual people/householder vs firms
No full textThis paper develops two mathematical models to understand subjects’ behavior in response to the urgency of a change and inputs from governments e.g., (subsides) in the context of the diffusion of the solar photovoltaic in Italy. The first model is a Markov model of interacting particle systems. The second one, instead, is a MeanField Game model. In both cases, we derive the scaling limit deterministic dynamics, and we compare the latter to the Italian solar photovoltaic data. We identify periods where the first model describes the behavior of domestic data well and a period where the second model captures a particular feature of data corresponding to companies. The comprehensive analysis, integrated with a philosophical inquiry focusing on the conceptual vocabulary and correlative implications, leads to the formulation of hypotheses about the efficacy of different forms of governmental subsidies
Advisors with hidden motives
No full textAn advisor discloses evidence about an object to a potential buyer, who doesn't know the object's value or the profitability of its sale (the advisor's motives). I characterize optimal disclosure rules that balance two goals: maximizing the overall probability of sale, and steering sales from lower- to higher-profitability objects. I consider the implications of a regulation that forces the advisor to always reveal her motives to the buyer. I show that whether such policies induce the advisor to disclose more evidence about the object's value hinges on the curvature of the buyer's demand for the object. This result refines our understanding of effective regulation of advisor-advisee communication with and without commitment
Our future health: consent, clinical risk, and industry issues plague the UK’s biggest ever health research programme
No full textThe UK’s flagship health research programme promises breakthroughs, but beneath an NHS branded facade, critics are asking who really benefits from this vast database, heavily backed by industry and government. Margaret McCartney and Deborah Cohen investigat
Safe streets for cyclists? Quantifying the causal impact of cycling infrastructure interventions on safety
No full textLondon's Cycle Superhighways (CS) form a network of cycle routes connecting central London to outer boroughs, introduced in 2010 to promote cycling and improve safety. This paper examines their causal impact on cycling volume and safety using detailed road traffic and road safety data from the UK's Department for Transport. To estimate these effects, we employ propensity score-matched difference-in-differences and panel outcome regression models, comparing two distinct infrastructure types: segregated and non-segregated CS. A key contribution of this study is the development of a novel safety indicator — the normalised collision rate — that accounts for changes in cyclist volume (exposure) while incorporating expected non-linearities in the relationship between collisions and exposure. Our findings indicate that non-segregated CS did not increase cycling volume but led to a substantially higher collision rate. This increase appears to be driven by a post-intervention surge in the proportion of new, inexperienced cyclists along these routes. In contrast, segregated CS effectively increased cycling volume without increasing collision rates. Further, an evaluation of a major segregation upgrade along an existing non-segregated CS route revealed a notable reduction in collision rates. These results highlight the crucial role of segregated infrastructure in not only encouraging cycling but also ensuring it remains a safe and viable urban transport option
Trade penetration, sustainable finance and carbon peak: evidence from China
No full textFollowing the “dual carbon” goals in 2021, which emphasize achieving the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060, China introduced a “dual circulation” strategy to connect domestic and international trade. Leveraging the quantile regression model, this study examines the impact of green total factor productivity, trade penetration, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance on carbon emissions (CO2). Furthermore, a mediating model is established from another perspective to discover the mechanism, respectively, testing how trade, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance affect carbon emissions via green total factor productivity. The findings indicate that green total factor productivity exerts an inverted “U-shaped” effect on carbon emissions within a certain threshold of the total CO2 volume. While the relationship between the green total factor productivity and CO2 becomes a significant “U-shaped” when the total CO2 goes beyond a certain level. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment penetration and sustainable finance contribute positively to carbon emissions reduction, whereas trade penetration notably increases carbon emissions. Transition mechanisms with international cooperation, trade penetration, foreign direct investment penetration, and sustainable finance also affect CO2 through the green total factor productivity channel. As suggested, China should tailor its low-carbon transition strategies, drawing on global insights and considering its unique national development. Broadly, efficiency in the production process and low-carbon transition are preferred (i.e. improved green total factor productivity), which will balance economic development and environmental protection. The adoption and promotion of a consistent framework for sustainable finance are crucial, as they help enterprises in developing countries access more global sustainable finance. This study also notes that participating more in international trade that embodies low-carbon concepts and introducing green foreign direct investment helps developing countries improve resource efficiency and productivity
European countries policy responses against SARS-Cov-2 in the context of vaccinations
No full textNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential tools for containing or mitigating the spread of a novel virus until vaccination becomes available. Given their well-known side effects, NPIs should be employed only as long as necessary and largely replaced by population immunity through vaccination. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, countries adopted various strategies for implementing NPIs and administering vaccinations. While differences in NPIs and vaccination strategies among countries have been descriptively illustrated, they have not yet been quantified. This study aims to quantitatively analyze the differences in NPIs across 10 European countries immediately after vaccinations became available