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Identifying partisan gerrymandering and its consequences: evidence from the 1990 US census redistricting
No full textWe empirically identify politically-motivated redistricting and its consequences, studying the effects of changed electorate composition on US congressional district boundaries and on political outcomes. We exploit the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA),which legalized millions of immigrants, changing local electorates without changing demographics— legalized immigrants were already counted in the census. Where Democrats controlled the 1990 redistricting process, higher IRCA populations were associated with more spatially distorted districts. Consistent with theory, Democrats packed Hispanics(their ardent supporters) into majority-minority districts. House delegations had more Hispanics suggesting that partisan gerrymandering, in this case, increased representation among the historically underrepresented
When composite likelihood meets stochastic approximation
No full textA composite likelihood is an inference function derived by multiplying a set of likelihood components. This approach provides a flexible framework for drawing inferences when the likelihood function of a statistical model is computationally intractable. While composite likelihood has computational advantages, it can still be demanding when dealing with numerous likelihood components and a large sample size. This article tackles this challenge by employing an approximation of the conventional composite likelihood estimator based on a stochastic optimization procedure. This novel estimator is shown to be asymptotically normally distributed around the true parameter. In particular, based on the relative divergent rate of the sample size and the number of iterations of the optimization, the variance of the limiting distribution is shown to compound for two sources of uncertainty: the sampling variability of the data and the optimization noise, with the latter depending on the sampling distribution used to construct the stochastic gradients. The advantages of the proposed framework are illustrated through simulation studies on two working examples: an Ising model for binary data and a gamma frailty model for count data. Finally, a real-data application is presented, showing its effectiveness in a large-scale mental health survey. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work
Conclusions: into the forest
No full textThe editors conclude by underlining the need for enhanced interdisciplinarity rather than arguing for the existence of a distinct subfield. The various submissions have considered positions and powers but also trajectories and have also emphasised indicators and gone beyond typical monolithic administrative concepts. They conclude with some pointers to future research
Future challenges for UK regulation of brain organoid research
No full textOne of this century’s most dramatic scientific developments is the reprogramming of stem cells in order to create organoids, that is, self-organizing 3D models that mimic the structure and function of human organs. This article considers whether brain organoids in particular might raise any new questions for law, now or in the near future. If complex human brain organoids were to become capable of consciousness or sentience, the current regulation of human tissue research, which protects the interests of tissue donors, might need to be supplemented in order to protect the interests of the tissue itself. Human brain organoids can also be implanted into animal hosts, and if this were to result in animals with significantly enhanced cognitive abilities, additional protective measures might become necessary
Political parties
No full textThis chapter examines the constitutional role of parties and partisanship. We begin by sketching a conception of constitutionalism as a mechanism for finding an equilibrium between different social interests. Appealing as this ideal of moderation has long been for many, we highlight its limits as a basis for democracy and progressive change. A desirable constitutional model must make space for political conflict and immoderation, and as we go on to argue, partisans and the associations they form are an important foundation for this. The final section connects these observations to the contemporary political world, in particular to the state of parties today and to some of the misplaced anxieties about ‘polarisation’ they give rise to
Reintegrative retributivism
No full textPessimistic empirical evidence about the reformatory and deterrent effects of punitive treatment poses a challenge for all justificatory theories of punishment. Yet, the dominant progressive view remains that punishment is required for the most serious crimes. This paper outlines an empirically sensitive prospectus for justifying punitive treatment through understanding the importance of reintegration. On this view, punishment can be viewed as a preferred alternative to the rigours of social ostracism, a common way of dealing with offenders in lieu of formal criminal justice. Adopting reintegration as a primary aim encourages taking a longer view which focuses on desistance from criminality rather than only on reform at the point of release from formal punishment. The view outlined in this paper enables a vindication of reintegrative punishment even when it is not the most immediately efficient means of reforming offenders. In making this argument, I develop the modern retributive platform in criminal justice theory, identify various overlooked yet key nuances in the relationship between reintegration and reform, and argue for greater theoretical and practical attention to how the state can make the communities they serve more receptive to reintegrating offenders
Financing and provision of long-term care in Europe: reflections on intergenerational solidarity in care for older people
No full textIncreasing demand for long-term care (LTC) in Europe amid population ageing has challenged how states will evolve to respond to changing needs and questions the younger generations' willingness to support future care for older people. Using novel data from the InCARE survey (September 2021–March 2022), we investigate age-related attitudes towards the family's and state's role in financing and organising LTC, and whether caregiving experience or care regime type mediates these differences. Ordered logistic regressions indicate upward intergenerational solidarity of younger adults towards public responsibility relative to middle-aged individuals across countries, but also a stronger perceived obligation to provide care, despite potential negative career impacts. Caregiving experience mediates attitudes to informal care among mid-aged individuals, driven by intensity in care. Differences in attitudes across care regimes associate with differing levels of state generosity, where individuals in states with less responsibility for LTC are more supportive of the family's role in financing and providing care. Intergenerational differences in attitudes emerge predominantly where state support is less generous and greater responsibility is placed on the family. Our findings suggest the younger generation is generally likely to be supportive of a sustained role of the state in protecting against risks associated with LTC. Support for the state relative to familial obligations is strong among all age groups and across care regimes, suggesting LTC is recognised as a social risk deserving of coverage under social protection schemes and points to the substantial envisioned role of the state in protecting against finance and well-being risks associated with care in future
Five facts about MPCs: evidence from a randomized experiment
No full textWe present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; (3) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; (4) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liquid wealthy; (5) unconditional MPC distribution exhibits large variation. Our findings inform the design of stimulus policies and pose challenges to existing macroeconomic models
The closing longevity gap between battery electric vehicles and internal combustion vehicles in Great Britain
No full textElectric vehicles are increasingly being adopted in Great Britain and other parts of the world, driven by the perception that they offer a cost-effective alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles while reducing emissions. However, a key element that underpins this perception is the longevity of electric vehicles, which remains relatively under researched. Here we show that although early battery electric vehicles (BEVs) exhibited lower reliability than internal combustion engine vehicles, rapid technological advancements have allowed newer BEVs to achieve comparable lifespans, even under more intensive use. Longevity is also found to be impacted by engine size, location and make of vehicle. We provide parameter estimates for life mileage that can be used to update life cycle assessment and total cost of ownership studies of different vehicle powertrains. Our results also shed light on BEV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around BEV battery recycling and second-life options
Explaining the unmet information needs of family carers of people with dementia: a theoretical model of information behaviour
No full textBackground. Family carers of people with dementia often report unmet information needs, despite policy emphasis on the provision of information as key to enabling good care and empowering carers in their role. Although the consequences of unmet information needs are detrimental to both the person being cared for and the carer, a systematic understanding of the causes of unmet information needs is lacking. To address this gap, this article presents a theoretical framework centred on the concept of information behaviour and integrating the information seeking and communication model, candidacy theory, and discrepancy theory. The framework maps information behaviour across six phases (from the identification of an information need to its satisfaction) and three levels (individual, service, system) at which explanatory factors may be observed. Methods. The framework was tested on data collected from 24 in-depth interviews and two focus groups with people with dementia and family carers of someone living with dementia in the North-East of England (UK). Data were analysed thematically to map the factors at play at each phase of the framework that might explain whether needs were met. Results. Unmet information needs are not always the result of a lack of information. Issues such as inadequate support for the user in identifying the need, problems in finding information, the timing of information provision, the amount of information provided, the credibility of the information source and the relevance of the information (given care needs, preferences, personal and family circumstances) can all contribute to unmet information needs. This work shows that meeting an information need ultimately requires progress through the different stages of information behaviour, each of which is influenced by the interplay of individual-, service-, and system-level factors, and depends on both users and providers. Conclusions. This work challenges the rational paradigm in health and care information, which assumes that more information will lead to better care, and contributes to a critical perspective on health and care information that reframes successful information behaviour as a set of complex activities that are relational, emotionally charged, contextually embedded, and require (and produce) situated knowledge. Trial registration. Not applicable