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Bolivia: una nueva mirada al rol de los recursos naturales en el crecimiento económico
No full textWe present a quantitative analysis of the relationships between economic growth in Bolivia and the price dynamics of the most important export natural resources in 1970-2013, namely tin, zinc, silver, gold and gas. Based upon a historical analysis, we identify the time periods where each one of these natural resources was closely related to the country’s economic performance. We find that the price trends of tin in 1970-1986 and gas in 2000-2013 allow to reproduce the economic growth trend with mean squared errors of 1.25 and 0.5, respectively. Variations in the price trends of these resources account for 89% of the variability in the economic growth trend. These strong relationships go on to show the power of these price trends as predictors of economic growth. We also find that in 1987-1999, price trends of zinc, silver and gold are unable to act as similarly precise predictors of the economic growth trend
Engaging citizen scientists to build healthy park environments in Colombia
No full textColombia’s Recreovía program offers community-based free physical activity (PA) classes in parks. We evaluated built and social environmental factors influencing Recreovía local park environments, and facilitated a consensus-building and advocacy process among community members, policymakers and academic researchers aimed at improving uptake and impact of the Recreovía program. We used a mixed-methods approach, with individual and contextual PA measurements and a resident-enabled participatory approach (the Our Voice citizen science engagement model). Recreovía participants were likely to be women meeting PA recommendations, and highly satisfied with the Recreovía classes. Reported facilitators of the Recreovía included its role in enhancing social and individual well-being through PA classes. Reported barriers to usage were related to park maintenance, cleanliness and safety. The Our Voice process elicited community reflection, empowerment, advocacy and action. Our Voice facilitated the interplay among stakeholders and community members to optimize the Recreovía program as a facilitator of active living, and to make park environments more welcoming
The Suffragist peace
No full textPreferences for conflict and cooperation are systematically different for men and women: across a variety of contexts, women generally prefer more peaceful options and are less supportive of making threats and initiating conflict. But how do these preferences affect states’ decisions for war and patterns of conflict at the international level, such as the democratic peace? Women have increasingly participated in political decision making over the last century because of suffragist movements. But although there is a large body of research on the democratic peace, the role of women's suffrage has gone unexplored. Drawing on theory, a meta-analysis of survey experiments in international relations, and analysis of crossnational conflict data, we show how features of women's preferences about the use of force translate into specific patterns of international conflict. When empowered by democratic institutions and suffrage, women's more pacific preferences generate a dyadic democratic peace (i.e., between democracies), as well as a monadic peace. Our analysis supports the view that the enfranchisement of women is essential for the democratic peace
Rapid spectral evolution of steep surface wave groups with directional spreading
No full textWe have investigated steep three-dimensional surface gravity wave groups formed by dispersive focusing using a fully nonlinear potential flow solver. We find that third-order resonant interactions result in rapid energy transfers to higher wavenumbers and reduced directional spreading during focusing, followed by spectral broadening during defocusing, forming steep wave groups with augmented kinematics and a prolonged lifespan. If the wave group is initially narrow-banded, quasi-degenerate interactions arise, characterised by energy transfers along the resonance angle, ±35.26∘, of the Phillips ‘figure-of-eight’ loop. Spectral broadening due to the quasi-degenerate interactions facilitates non-degenerate interactions, characterised by oblique energy transfers at approximately ±55∘ to the spectral peak. We consider the influence of steepness, finite depth, directional spreading and the high-wavenumber tail on spectral evolution. Steepness is found to augment both the quasi-degenerate and non-degenerate interactions similarly. However, a reduction in depth is found to weaken the quasi-degenerate interactions more severely than the non-degenerate interactions. We observe that increased directional spreading reduces spectral evolution, partially because wave groups with more spreading focus for a shorter duration due to linear dispersion. However, we also find that directional spreading reduces the peak rates of energy transfer. Inclusion of the high-wavenumber tail of the Joint North Sea Wave Project spectrum further reduces rates of energy transfer compared with a Gaussian wavenumber spectrum. Thus, directional spreading and the high-wavenumber tail may be integral to a form of spectral equilibrium that reduces rapid energy transfers during a steep wave event
Calibrating agent-based models with linear regressions
No full textIn this paper, we introduce a simple way to parametrize simulation models by using regularized linear regression. Regressions bypass the three major challenges of calibrating by minimization: selecting the summary statistics, defining the distance function and minimizing it numerically. By substituting regression with classification, we can extend this approach to model selection. We present five example estimations: a statistical fit, a biological individual-based model, a simple real business cycle model, a non-linear biological simulation and heuristics selection in a fishery agent-based model. The outcome is a method that automatically chooses summary statistics, weighs them and uses them to parametrize models without running any direct minimization
The impact of social structure on breeding strategies in an island bird
No full textThe social environment is a key factor determining fitness by influencing multiple stages of reproduction, including pair formation, mating behavior and parenting. However, the influence of social structure across different aspects of breeding is rarely examined simultaneously in wild populations. We therefore lack a consolidation of the mechanisms by which sociality impacts reproduction. Here we investigate the implications of the social environment before and during breeding on multiple stages of reproduction in an island population of the ground nesting shorebird, the Kentish plover (Charadrius alexandrinus). We utilise information on mating decisions, nest locations and nesting success across multiple years in combination with social network analysis. Sociality before breeding was connected with patterns of pair formation. In addition, site fidelity and personal breeding experience was associated with the spatial organisation of breeding pairs. Our results provide evidence that, while differential social interactions at localised scales influence patterns of reproductive pairing, site fidelity and personal breeding experience influence the structure of populations at the landscape scale. Our results underline the tight link between the social structure of populations and patterns of mating while revealing that the relative influence of sociality, breeding experience and local ecology are dynamic across different facets of reproduction
Amphioxus (Branchiostoma floridae) superTranscriptome: Modified transcriptome from IncDNA-BF
No full textAmphioxus (Branchiostoma floridae) cDNA superTranscriptome assembly BfsuperV5 was downloaded from the IncDNA-BF (Integrative cDNA library for Branchiostoma floridae) database (http://139.129.29.118/IncDNA) made available by Prof. Zhiliang Ji and Dr. Yangmei Qin of the School of Life Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China ([email protected]). Hox genes were then assembled manually to remove and correct an artefactual fusion between 6 distinct Hox genes and a lncRNA (giving 215,495 sequences). The version deposited here includes this adjustment. Use of these data should acknowledge the IncDNA-BF (Integrative cDNA library for Branchiostoma floridae) database (http://139.129.29.118/IncDNA) and the publication cited in this ORA-Data entry.
Files included:
BfsuperV5_fix.fa
= fasta file of all sequences
BfsuperV5-4_FIX.gtf
= tab-delineated text file in gtf format giving feature coordinates and putative identities of transcripts within superTranscripts. Tabs are: (1) seqname [equivalent to contig ID or gene name in Supplementary Data]; (2) source [superTrancript]; (3) feature [transcript, exon or CDS (coding sequence)]; (4) start of feature; (5) end of feature; (6) score [dot]; (7) strand [+]; (8) frame [dot]; (9) attribute [gene_id; transcript_id; gene_Name = example blast hit, uniprot code; Note = putative gene name from uniprot blast hit blast only
Specialised early intervention teams for recent-onset psychosis
No full textBACKGROUND: Psychosis is an illness characterised by the presence of hallucinations and delusions that can cause distress or a marked change in an individual's behaviour (e.g. social withdrawal, flat or blunted effect). A first episode of psychosis (FEP) is the first time someone experiences these symptoms that can occur at any age, but the condition is most common in late adolescence and early adulthood. This review is concerned with first episode psychosis (FEP) and the early stages of a psychosis, referred to throughout this review as 'recent-onset psychosis.' Specialised early intervention (SEI) teams are community mental health teams that specifically treat people who are experiencing, or have experienced a recent-onset psychosis. The purpose of SEI teams is to intensively treat people with psychosis early in the course of the illness with the goal of increasing the likelihood of recovery and reducing the need for longer-term mental health treatment. SEI teams provide a range of treatments including medication, psychotherapy, psychoeducation, and occupational, educational and employment support, augmented by assertive contact with the service user and small caseloads. Treatment is time limited, usually offered for two to three years, after which service users are either discharged to primary care or transferred to a standard adult community mental health team. A previous Cochrane Review of SEI found preliminary evidence that SEI may be superior to standard community mental health care (described as 'treatment as usual (TAU)' in this review) but these recommendations were based on data from only one trial. This review updates the evidence for the use of SEI services.
OBJECTIVES: To compare specialised early intervention (SEI) teams to treatment as usual (TAU) for people with recent-onset psychosis.
SEARCH METHODS: On 3 October 2018 and 22 October 2019, we searched Cochrane Schizophrenia's study-based register of trials, including registries of clinical trials.
SELECTION CRITERIA: We selected all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing SEI with TAU for people with recent-onset psychosis. We entered trials meeting these criteria and reporting useable data as included studies.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We independently inspected citations, selected studies, extracted data and appraised study quality. For binary outcomes we calculated the risk ratios (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For continuous outcomes we calculated the mean difference (MD) and their 95% CIs, or if assessment measures differed for the same construct, we calculated the standardised mean difference (SMD) with 95% CIs. We assessed risk of bias for included studies and created a 'Summary of findings' table using the GRADE approach.
MAIN RESULTS: We included three RCTs and one cluster-RCT with a total of 1145 participants. The mean age in the trials was between 23.1 years (RAISE) and 26.6 years (OPUS). The included participants were 405 females (35.4%) and 740 males (64.6%). All trials took place in community mental healthcare settings. Two trials reported on recovery from psychosis at the end of treatment, with evidence that SEI team care may result in more participants in recovery than TAU at the end of treatment (73% versus 52%; RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.97; 2 studies, 194 participants; low-certainty evidence). Three trials provided data on disengagement from services at the end of treatment, with fewer participants probably being disengaged from mental health services in SEI (8%) in comparison to TAU (15%) (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.79; 3 studies, 630 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was low-certainty evidence that SEI may result in fewer admissions to psychiatric hospital than TAU at the end of treatment (52% versus 57%; RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00; 4 studies, 1145 participants) and low-certainty evidence that SEI may result in fewer psychiatric hospital days (MD -27.00 days, 95% CI -53.68 to -0.32; 1 study, 547 participants). Two trials reported on general psychotic symptoms at the end of treatment, with no evidence of a difference between SEI and TAU, although this evidence is very uncertain (SMD -0.41, 95% CI -4.58 to 3.75; 2 studies, 304 participants; very low-certainty evidence). A different pattern was observed in assessment of general functioning with an end of trial difference that may favour SEI (SMD 0.37, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.66; 2 studies, 467 participants; low-certainty evidence). It was uncertain whether the use of SEI resulted in fewer deaths due to all-cause mortality at end of treatment (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.20; 3 studies, 741 participants; low-certainty evidence). There was low risk of bias for random sequence generation and allocation concealment in three of the four included trials; the remaining trial had unclear risk of bias. Due to the nature of the intervention, we considered all trials at high risk of bias for blinding of participants and personnel. Two trials had low risk of bias and two trials had high risk of bias for blinding of outcomes assessments. Three trials had low risk of bias for incomplete outcome data, while one trial had high risk of bias. Two trials had low risk of bias, one trial had high risk of bias, and one had unclear risk of bias for selective reporting.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that SEI may provide benefits to service users during treatment compared to TAU. These benefits probably include fewer disengagements from mental health services (moderate-certainty evidence), and may include small reductions in psychiatric hospitalisation (low-certainty evidence), and a small increase in global functioning (low-certainty evidence) and increased service satisfaction (moderate-certainty evidence). The evidence regarding the effect of SEI over TAU after treatment has ended is uncertain. Further evidence investigating the longer-term outcomes of SEI is needed. Furthermore, all the eligible trials included in this review were conducted in high-income countries, and it is unclear whether these findings would translate to low- and middle-income countries, where both the intervention and the comparison conditions may be different
A single administration of the antibiotic, minocycline, reduces fear processing and improves implicit learning in healthy volunteers: analysis of the serum metabolome
No full textMinocycline has shown therapeutic promise in pre-clinical animal models and early phase clinical trials for a variety of psychiatric disorders. Previous studies on minocycline have shown its ability to suppress microglia activity and reduce inflammatory cytokine levels, and its amelioration of depressive-like behaviour in animals and humans. However, the underlying mechanisms that lead to minocycline’s psychotropic effects are not clear. In this study, we investigated the psychological and biochemical effects of an acute dose of minocycline or placebo in 40 healthy adult volunteers. Psychological changes in emotional processing, implicit learning, and working memory were assessed. Plasma inflammatory markers, measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and serum metabolites, measured with proton nuclear magnetic resonance combined with multi-variate analysis techniques, were also studied. Results showed that minocycline administration decreased fear misclassification and increased contextual learning, which suggested that reducing negative biases and improving cognition, respectively, may underlie the antidepressant actions of this agent. An examination of serum metabolites revealed higher levels of lipoproteins, particularly cholesterol, in the minocycline group. Minocycline also decreased circulating concentrations of the inflammatory marker C-Reactive Peptide, which is consistent with previous research. These effects highlight two important psychological mechanisms that may be relevant to the efficacy of minocycline reported in clinical trials, and also suggest a possible largely unexplored lipid-related biochemical pathway for the action of this drug