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SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties
Declines in an augur buzzard Buteo augur population in a region of increasing human development
As with many areas in Africa, Kenya has witnessed rapid human development in recent decades, including an increase in urbanization and an intensification of agriculture. The impact of these land use changes on wildlife populations have, however, rarely been examined. The Augur Buzzard is a widespread raptor species, thought to adapt relatively well to human alterations of habitat. In this study, we explore trends in Augur Buzzard (Buteo augur) territory occupancy over nearly two decades around Lake Naivasha, Kenya, in relation to land-use changes, particularly expansion in human housing and flower farms. We hypothesized that these changes would cause population declines in this species within our study area. Using remote-sensed satellite imagery, we found that human development (agriculture and human settlement) increased from 9 to 24% of the study area from 1995 to 2014. We found a 47% decline in active territories over this same time period, representing an annualized decline of 3.1%. Based on the length of three generations this would qualify this species to be uplisted to at least Vulnerable in our study area, raising our concerns that the same pattern may be occurring across the species’ range. We then explored whether abandonment of individual territories was associated with either (i) the current amount or (ii) the change in human development within a range of buffer circles of varying radii (0.1–5.0 km). Contrary to our expectations, no associations were found between human development and territorial abandonment, and thus we could not attribute specific territorial abandonment to these broad scale anthropogenic land cover changes. We encourage further research to investigate whether territorial abandonment may be associated with either finer resolution (habitat specific) changes, or sources of direct mortality, for example human persecution or electrocutions. These factors might explain the decline in this population better than broader scale increases in anthropogenic land cover
The relationship between alexithymia and theory of mind: a systematic review
Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to represent the mental states of oneself and others, is an essential social skill disrupted across many psychiatric conditions. The transdiagnostic nature of ToM impairment means it is plausible that ToM impairment is related to alexithymia (difficulties identifying and describing one’s own emotions), as alexithymia is seen across psychiatric conditions. Whilst many studies have examined links between alexithymia and ToM, results are mixed. Therefore, the purpose of this systematic review is to provide a taxonomy of ToM tests and assess their relationship with alexithymia. Tests are grouped according to whether they assess propensity to engage spontaneously in ToM or accuracy of ToM inferences, with tests further subdivided into those that do, and do not, require emotion recognition. A review of 63 suitable studies suggests that alexithymia is often associated with reduced ToM, and inaccurate ToM when tasks require emotion recognition. This latter finding appears due to impaired emotion recognition, rather than ToM impairment per se. Further directions and considerations for future research are discussed
The infertility trap: The fertility costs of group-living in mammalian social evolution
Mammal social groups vary considerably in size from single individuals to very large herds. In some taxa, these groups are extremely stable, with at least some individuals being members of the same group throughout their lives; in other taxa, groups are unstable, with membership changing by the day. We argue that this variability in grouping patterns reflects a tradeoff between group size as a solution to environmental demands and the costs created by stress-induced infertility (creating an infertility trap). These costs are so steep that, all else equal, they will limit group size in mammals to ∼15 individuals. A species will only be able to live in larger groups if it evolves strategies that mitigate these costs. We suggest that mammals have opted for one of two solutions. One option (fission-fusion herding) is low cost but high risk; the other (bonded social groups) is risk-averse, but costly in terms of cognitive requirements
Mucosal immune responses in COVID19 - a living review
COVID-19 was initially characterized as a disease primarily of the lungs, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the SARS-CoV2 virus is able to infect many organs and cause a broad pathological response. The primary infection site is likely to be a mucosal surface, mainly the lungs or the intestine, where epithelial cells can be infected with virus. Although it is clear that virus within the lungs can cause severe pathology, driven by an exaggerated immune response, infection within the intestine generally seems to cause minor or no symptoms. In this review, we compare the disease processes between the lungs and gastrointestinal tract, and what might drive these different responses. As the microbiome is a key part of mucosal barrier sites, we also consider the effect that microbial species may play on infection and the subsequent immune responses. Because of difficulties obtaining tissue samples, there are currently few studies focused on the local mucosal response rather than the systemic response, but understanding the local immune response will become increasingly important for understanding the mechanisms of disease in order to develop better treatments
Differentiated service delivery for people using second-line antiretroviral therapy: clinical outcomes from a retrospective cohort study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Introduction
Evidence is needed to guide the inclusion of broader groups of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in differentiated service delivery (DSD) programmes. We assessed treatment outcomes among PLHIV on second-line regimens in a community antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery programme, compared to those who remained at clinics.
Methods
Using data from 61 public clinics, we did a retrospective cohort study among PLHIV receiving second-line ART following rollout of the Centralized Chronic Medicines Dispensing and Distribution (CCMDD) programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We included PLHIV from the timepoint when they were first eligible, though not necessarily referred, for community ART within CCMDD and followed them for 18 months. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare 12-month attrition and viraemia between clients referred for community ART and those remaining in clinic care.
Results
Among 209,744 PLHIV aged ≥ 18 years who collected ART between October 2016 and December 2018, 7511 (3.6%) received second-line ART. Of these, 2575 (34.3%) were eligible for community ART. The median age was 39.0 years (interquartile range 34.0–45.0) and 1670 (64.9%) were women. Five hundred and eighty-four (22.7%) were referred for community ART within 6 months of meeting eligibility criteria. Overall, 4.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0–6.6%] in community ART and 4.4% (95% CI 3.5–5.4%) in clinic care experienced attrition at 12 months post eligibility for community ART. Two thousand one hundred and thirty-eight (83.0%) had a viral load recorded 6–18 months after becoming eligible, and of these, 10.3% (95% CI 7.7–13.3%) in community ART and 11.3% (95% CI 9.8–12.9%) in clinic care had viraemia > 200 copies/ml. In separate regressions adjusted for age, gender, district, time on second-line ART, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone and year of eligibility, no differences in the odds of attrition [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.02, 95% CI 0.71–1.47] or viraemia (aOR 0.91, 95% CI 0.64–1.29) were observed between those in community ART and those remaining in clinic care.
Conclusions
We found good outcomes among PLHIV who were stable on second-line regimens and referred for community ART. Efforts to expand DSD access among this group should be prioritized
Antagonistic effects of long- and short-term environmental variation on species coexistence
Assessing the impact of environmental fluctuations on species coexistence is critical for understanding biodiversity loss and the ecological impacts of climate change. Yet determining how properties like the intensity, frequency or duration of environmental fluctuations influence species coexistence remains challenging, presumably because previous studies have focused on indefinite coexistence. Here, we model the impact of environmental fluctuations at different temporal scales on species coexistence over a finite time period by employing the concepts of time-windowed averaging and performance curves to incorporate temporal niche differences within a stochastic Lotka–Volterra model. We discover that short- and long-term environmental variability has contrasting effects on transient species coexistence, such that short-term variation favours species coexistence, whereas long-term variation promotes competitive exclusion. This dichotomy occurs because small samples (e.g. environmental changes over long time periods) are more likely to show large deviations from the expected mean and are more difficult to predict than large samples (e.g. environmental changes over short time periods), as described in the central limit theorem. Consequently, we show that the complex set of relationships among environmental fluctuations and species coexistence found in previous studies can all be synthesized within a general framework by explicitly considering both long- and short-term environmental variation
Social Outcomes Contracting (SOC) in social programmes and public services: a mixed-methods systematic review protocol
Background: Across a range of policy areas and geographies, governments and philanthropists are increasingly looking to adopt a social outcomes contracting (SOC) approach. Under this model, an agreement is made that a provider of services must achieve specific, measurable social and/or environmental outcomes and payments are only made when these outcomes have been achieved. Despite this growing interest, there is currently a paucity of evidence in relation to the tangible improvement in outcomes associated with the implementation of these approaches. Although promising, evidence suggests that there are risks (especially around managing perverse incentives).[1] The growing interest in SOC has been accompanied by research of specific programmes, policy domains or geographies, but there has not been a systematic attempt to synthetise this emerging evidence. To address this gap, this systematic review aims to surface the best evidence on when and where effects have been associated with SOC.
Methods: This mixed-methods systematic review protocol has been prepared using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol (PRISMA-P) guidelines (Additional File 2) (Shamseer et al., 2010). The review aims to consult policymakers throughout the evidence synthesis process, by adopting a user-involved research process. This will include the establishment and involvement of a Policy Advisory Group (PAG). The PAG will consist of a large, diverse, international group of policy makers who are or have been actively involved in funding and shaping social outcomes contracts (Additional File 3). The following electronic databases will be searched: ABI/INFORM Global, Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA), Scopus, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), PAIS Index, PolicyFile Index, Proquest Dissertations and Theses, ProQuest Social Science, Social Services Abstracts, Web of Science, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts and PsycINFO. We will also conduct a comprehensive search of grey literature sources. Studies will be imported into Covidence and screened (after de-duplication) independently by two reviewers, using explicit inclusion/exclusion criteria. We will conduct risk of bias and quality assessment using recommended tools and we will extract data using a pre-piloted, standardised data extraction form. If meta-synthesis cannot be conducted for the effectiveness component, we will carry out a descriptive narrative synthesis of the quantitative evidence, categorised by type of intervention, type of outcome/s, population characteristics and/or policy sector. The qualitative studies will be synthesised using thematic content analysis (Thomas and Harden 2008). If possible, we will also analyse the available economic data to understand the costs and benefits associated with SOC. Finally, we will conduct a cross-study synthesis, which will involve bringing together the findings from the effectiveness review, economic review and qualitative review. We recognise that the proposed conventional effectiveness review method may lead to inconclusive or partial findings given the complexity of the intervention, the likely degree of heterogeneity and the under-developed evidence base. We see a traditional systematic review as an important foundation to describe the evidence landscape. We will use this formal review as a starting point and then explore more contextually rooted review work in future.
Discussion: We will use the systematic review findings to produce accessible and reliable empirical insights on whether, when, and where (and if possible, how) SOC approaches deliver improved impact when compared to more conventional funding arrangements. The outputs will support policymakers to make informed decisions in relation to commissioning and funding approaches.
Systematic review registration: This systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), on 20th November 2020 and was last updated on 21 January 2021: (registration number PROSPERO CRD42020215207).
[1] A perverse incentive in an outcomes-based contract is an incentive that has unintended and undesirable results. For instance, a poorly designed welfare-to-work scheme could create incentives for service providers to prioritise clients who are easier to help and to ‘park’ those who are harder to assist (NAO 2015)
Do journals raise their impact factor or SCImago ranking by self-citing in editorials? A bibliometric analysis of trauma and orthopaedic journals
Background
Impact factor (IF) is widely accepted as a measure of a journal's quality but it can be influenced by self-citation. However, the SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) is based on journal prestige, excludes self-citation and considers quality of citations of a journal. This study aimed to investigate journal editors' use of self-citation and whether this correlated with IFs or SJR in trauma and orthopaedic (T&O) journals.
Methods
T&O journals on the SJR database were identified. From each journal, data including country of publication, number of annual issues, IF, SJR indicator and citable articles were extracted. The editorial(s) of each issue in 2018 were reviewed. The total number of times the editors cited their own previous work or their journal (in the preceding 2 years, 2016–2017) were identified. Regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of editorial self-citation with journal IF or SJR indicator.
Results
Of the 270 journals identified, 43 T&O journals with 151 editorials were included in the final analysis. A positive correlation between journal self-citation in the editorial and IF (P = 0.02) and SJR indicator (P = 0.02) was found. Citation by editors of their own publications within editorials also positively correlated with IF (P = 0.04) but not for SJR indicator (P = 0.19). There was a positive linear relationship between journal IF and SJR indicators (