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Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023:a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Get PDFBackground Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality—are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study—part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023—aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. Methods We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950–2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5–14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15–49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0–61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59–4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2–38·4) over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8–67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5–14 years, 25–29 years, and 30–39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5–14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950–2021 period) and for females aged 15–29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6–51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4–48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2–76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3–71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6–74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2–69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0–76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2–71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. Interpretation This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950–2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world
Interventions supporting people from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic groups in the United Kingdom with musculoskeletal disorders: a scoping review
Get PDFBackground: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) significantly impact quality of life, particularly among Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic communities in the UK, who face disproportionate burdens and barriers to care. Despite growing recognition of ethnic health disparities, there is limited understanding of interventions tailored to these populations. This scoping review aimed to map the existing literature on interventions for MSDs among Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic groups in the UK, identifying key approaches, gaps, and opportunities for culturally appropriate healthcare delivery. Method: A scoping review was conducted following the Population–Concept–Context (PCC) framework. Seven databases (PubMed Central, CINAHL, Scopus, Medline Full-text, Web of Science, PsycInfo, and Cochrane) were systematically searched up to April 2025. Studies were included if they assessed MSD interventions among Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic individuals in the UK. Both qualitative and quantitative studies were considered. Data were synthesised narratively using thematic analysis supported by NVivo v.11 software. Findings: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Three primary themes emerged: (1) language and communication initiatives, such as multilingual resources and telephone helplines; (2) pharmacological and dietary interventions, particularly addressing vitamin D deficiency and rheumatoid arthritis management; and (3) peer-support and educational initiatives, including community-based and culturally tailored programmes. A significant underrepresentation of Black African and Black Caribbean populations was identified alongside a noticeable lack of participatory or qualitative research approaches. Conclusion: There is a critical need for ethnically inclusive, culturally tailored MSD interventions in the UK. Future research should prioritise holistic, community-based approaches and actively address structural inequalities to improve health outcomes and ensure equitable care across all ethnic groups.</p
Seven tips to turn teaching practices into scholarship outputs
No full textWhat are universities looking for when they ask for examples of scholarship outputs? Find out what could provide evidence of this work and how it can enhance your academic career
Tap the mine of library data to help enhance your courses
No full textUniversity libraries offer a rich well of data for course enhancement teams, on everything from student engagement to which resources they’re using most. Here’s how to make the most of it
Five actions to drive your career forward in the third space
No full textThird spaces professionals can often find themselves excluded from traditional academic promotion or career development opportunities. Here’s how to carve your own path
Community Research Projects Evaluation (Wassif, H. S.,2025) A combined evaluation of four programme projects: Communities of Practice, Health Coaching, Deep End Network, and the Community Research Programme, undertaken as part of the Buckinghamshire Prevention & Health Inequalities Community Projects
No full textThe effects of deductive, inductive, and a combination of both types of grammar instruction in pre-sessional classes in higher education
Get PDFThe purpose of this paper is to investigate students’ grammar performance and attitudes toward inductive and deductive approaches to teaching grammar in English. A mixed-method study in higher education tested the effectiveness of inductive, deductive, and a combination of both approaches on student performance on grammar tests using eight grammatical structures. To collect data, a quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used, which included interviews, observations, questionnaires, and diaries. As indicated by the results, there were significant differences between the grammar performances of the different groups in favour of the deductive approach. Students’ grammar performance was also slightly improved when deductive grammar instruction was used or when both types were combined for university L2 students. Also, the study suggested using inductive instruction with simpler grammatical structures and deductive instruction with more complex grammatical structures. As a result, the study highlights the importance of practicing both types of instruction.</p
One-word university ratings are fool’s gold
No full textRather than designating England’s universities gold, silver or bronze the TEF should promote deeper understanding of teaching quality, says Steve Briggs <br/
Safe uncertainty:rethinking consent and relational intimacies in adolescent post-digital cultures
Get PDFThis article explores the concept of ‘safe uncertainty’ as a guiding principle for understanding and supporting adolescent relational intimacies in an era shaped by pervasive digital connectivity and shifting norms. Drawing on research into young people’s sexual and relational practices and insights from the Reimagining RSE pilot programme, the article argues that dominant educational approaches to consent often present legalistic and over-simplistic binary frameworks of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ that fail to reflect the complexities of adolescent experiences. In contrast, the concept of safe uncertainty offers a more nuanced lens that engages with ambivalence, power dynamics and ethical challenges inherent in contemporary relational contexts. The article situates safe uncertainty within broader discussions of risk, safety and relational wellbeing, illustrating how it can engender critical reflection, emotional literacy and adaptive decision-making among young people. Based on the principles of safe uncertainty, the article advocates pedagogical practices that embrace complexity, encourage open dialogue and move beyond prescription. In doing so, the article argues that promoting safe uncertainty does not entail abandoning safety but rather reimagining it as a dynamic, relational process that supports young people’s development of meaningful, ethical and pleasurable intimate relationships.</p
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