12560 research outputs found
Sort by
Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023:a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Full text linkBackground Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality—are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study—part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023—aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. Methods We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950–2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5–14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15–49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0–61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59–4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2–38·4) over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8–67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5–14 years, 25–29 years, and 30–39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5–14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950–2021 period) and for females aged 15–29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6–51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4–48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2–76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3–71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6–74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2–69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0–76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2–71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. Interpretation This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950–2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world
Stepwise AI interpretive approach for multimodal data fusion
No full textIn recent years, Artificial Intelligence technology has excelled in various tasks and is taking the world by storm. However, the various transformations in neural networks make it difficult to make sense of the reasons why decisions are made. For this reason, trustworthy AI techniques have started gaining popularity. AI interpretability serves as an anchor point in the field of data fusion for multimodal AI, providing in-depth insights. The paper proposed a Stepwise AI Interpretative (SAII) approach using different pairing methods of 'one-To-one' and 'many-To-many' in an attempt to illustrate/demonstrate the interpretability of the process of pairing images and text. A counterfactual instantiation method was used to compare the whole-local relationship between a set of images and their associated descriptive text. The approach was evaluated via 'task performance'
Experimental evaluation of radio-aware semantic map with 5G-enabled mobile robots
Full text linkWith the rapid development of 5G technology and the increasing demand for autonomous mobile robots, there is a trend to leverage the ultra-low latency, high data rates, and reliable wireless connectivity offered by 5G to improve the perception and navigation of robots in unknown environments. This paper presents a novel approach for creating and exploiting radio-aware semantic maps to empower 5Genabled mobile robots operating within an unknown environment. The proposed solution allows for smart offloading of robotic applications and task processing onto the edge systems while facilitating real-time data exchange, and enables robots to gather environment data from both onboard sensors and the mobile network for more efficient robot operation and resource orchestration decisions. A radio-aware semantic mapping framework is introduced, which combines radio signal quality information with semantic mapping techniques to create a comprehensive understanding of the environment, which may evolve over time. The semantic map, enriched with radio quality measurement data, enables mobile robots to make timely informed decisions by considering real-time radio quality variations. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of adopting radio semantic maps to enhance real-time robot operations on navigation and task offloading in unstructured environments. © 2025 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works
The mechanisms by which a whole-school intervention might improve sexual health:qualitative realist research nested in a trial in English secondary schools
Full text linkWhole-school interventions go beyond classroom education, promoting health by modifying school environments. These can be effective in delaying sexual debut and increasing contraception use but mechanisms are poorly understood. Qualitative research within realist evaluation can explore mechanisms via building 'context-mechanism-outcome configurations', describing how interventions trigger mechanisms that interact with context to generate outcomes. We explored these for the Positive Choices whole-school sexual health intervention within the intervention arm of a randomised trial conducted 2021-2025. Using 'dimensional analysis', we analysed 52 interviews with teachers and 40 focus-groups involving 266 students from 22 English secondary schools. Our results suggest seven mechanisms through which whole-school interventions might 'work': improving knowledge using diverse pedagogies; improving confidence and ability to talk by normalising talk about sexual health; changing gender attitudes through challenging stereotypes and providing insights and empathy with others' perspectives; promoting access to sexual health and other services via helping students understand their needs and entitlements; building school engagement by providing new student roles on decision-making groups; increasing inclusion of sexual-minority students by normalising consideration of non-heterosexual identities and practices; and reducing sexual harassment and abuse by helping students understand consent and when to intervene in harassment. Contextual contingencies included: high initial student needs; teacher skills and commitment; and school commitment and capacity. Our research suggests novel mechanisms via which whole-school interventions might promote sexual health. Quantitative analyses will now be conducted to examine these mechanisms and contingencies.</p
Sexual harassment in early adolescence:findings from a cross-sectional survey in secondary schools in England
Full text linkThere is little research on sexual harassment among younger adolescents or on how rates vary by gender and other student/school characteristics. Drawing on data from 50 English schools, we explored the prevalence and patterning of victimization in the past year among students aged 12-13. Of 7,060 participants, almost a tenth had experienced sexual harassment. Girls, non-binary students, and sexual-minority students reported the highest rates. Student commitment to school was associated with reduced victimization, particularly among straight students and in higher-attaining schools. Sexual harassment is a priority area for intervention, particularly for students facing the highest risk.</p
Impact of breakfast consumption timing v. breakfast omission on post-lunch glycaemia and insulinaemia in adolescent girls:A randomised crossover trial
Full text linkAdolescent girls often skip breakfast due to time constraints and reduced morning appetite. This study examined the acute impact of breakfast consumption timing versus breakfast omission (BO) on glycaemic and insulinaemic responses to lunch in infrequent breakfast-consuming girls. Fifteen girls (13.1±0.8 years) completed three conditions in a randomised crossover design: early-morning breakfast consumption (EM-BC; 8:30), mid-morning breakfast consumption (MM-BC; 10:30), and BO. A standardised lunch was provided at 12:30, followed by a 2-h post-lunch observation period. Blood and expired gas samples were collected periodically. Linear mixed models with Cohen's d effect sizes compared outcomes between conditions. Pre-lunch glucose and insulin incremental area under the curve (iAUC) were higher in the breakfast conditions versus BO (P≤0.009), with no differences between breakfast conditions. MM-BC reduced post-lunch glucose iAUC by 36% and 25% compared with BO and EM-BC, respectively (P<0.001, d=0.92-1.44). A moderate, non-significant 15% reduction in post-lunch glucose iAUC was seen with EM-BC versus BO (P=0.077, d=0.52). These reductions occurred without changes in post-lunch insulinemia (P≥0.323) and were accompanied by increased post-lunch carbohydrate oxidation compared with BO (P≤0.018, d=0.58-0.75); with no differences between EM-BC and MM-BC. MM-BC lowered glycaemic response over the experimental period compared with BO (P=0.033, d=0.98) and EM-BC (P=0.123, d=0.93), with no difference between EM-BC and BO. Compared with BO, both breakfast conditions lowered post-lunch glycaemic responses with mid-morning breakfast eliciting a greater second-meal effect than early-morning breakfast. These findings indicate the breakfast-to-lunch meal interval may be a crucial factor affecting postprandial glycaemia in infrequent breakfast-consuming girls
Accomplishing choral and collectively performed multi-modal self-defence actions
Full text linkThis article examines multi-modal self-defence actions in personal safety training classes for girls and women. The actions have linguistic and embodied components. An example is shouting “back off” at an imagined attacker while assuming a self-defensive stance position. An additional distinctive aspect of the phenomenon of interest is that it is done collectively as a multi-person party. Our work builds on and extends prior research in multimodal conversation analysis which has shown the ways language and bodily actions fit together. Using a collection of 200 cases drawn from more than 50 hours of video footage, two broad kinds of recurrent practices are described the support the class to achieve the collective, co-production of multi-modal self-defence actions. One is the projective, embodied syntactic structures instructors use to demonstrate the action and co-ordinate its execution. The other is the grammar of the verbal component that scaffolds the timing of physical techniques, especially ones where there is a combination of moves. By examining how linguistic and embodied components of multi-modal self-defence actions are brought together and done by multiple participants at the same time, we find empirical support for the innovative theoretical idea that syntax can be emergent and embodied rather than predominantly hierarchical and psycholinguistic. Data is in New Zealand English
A coach’s guide to understanding and measuring stiffness Part 1: Biomechanical concepts
Full text linkAbstract: The general concept of the stretch and recoil of elastic tissue during ground contact, storing and releasing energy to enhance the propulsive phase of an action is well understood. However different stiffness measures are frequently used incorrectly and interchangably, leading to ineffective monitoring of stiffness changes, limiting the impact of training designed to enhance stiffness. The aim of this narrative review is to discuss how different structures react to ground contacts, how this behaviour can be modeled and how stiffness impacts performance. Hill’s three-compartment model highlights the need for tendon compliance and muscle stiffness in efficient force generation. However, this does not really explain slow stretch shortening cycle (SSC) actions, were both muscle and tendon stretch and recoil. Different models are used to describe a bodies ground impact behaviour, including the spring-mass model which describes centre of mass movement, the torsional spring model which describes leg fuction, with three torsional springs representing the ankle, knee and hip. These models generally link an increase in stiffness to an increase in performance in high intensity action, with vertical stiffness a predictor of high intensity sporting actions independent of sex, age or maturation. Leg stiffness initially increases with running velocity, before remaining constant at high running velocities. When joint function is reviewed ankle stiffness is linked to fast SSC actions, with knee stiffness linked to slow SSC actions. It is concluded that different measures of stiffness should not be used interchangably as different aspects of stiffness impact performance independantly
Using motigraphs to investigate the temporalities of motivation: illustrating contrasting approaches
Full text linkFactors that affect the ability to maintain motivation to learn a language are known to vary across individuals and periods of learning. The temporality of language learning motivation is therefore inherently intertwined with learners’ ability to identify and achieve their language-related goals. A motigraph is a tool that can be used to collect individual data on the temporal dynamics of language learning motivation. Through motigraphs, data is elicited from participants by asking them to self-assess their levels of motivation in real-time as a means of visualising their language learning journeys. Participants are then asked to explain and reflect on their motigraphs in follow-up interviews. In this article, we illustrate contrasting examples of how motigraphs can be used to collect data with participants at different life stages in two longitudinal qualitative studies. In the first example, the participants are adult migrants in England, where the researcher used motigraphs to elicit reflections on the participants’ past education, current struggles in a new country and often-delayed future plans. In the second example, the participants are Chinese school children, whose concept of time is still developing and whose goals are to be achieved far into the future. We discuss how each age group utilised motigraphs to explain their individual relationships with time and motivation, along with the challenges and affordances of such an approach. We conclude with suggestions for future directions for using motigraphs as a qualitative data collection tool in applied linguistics research
Women entrepreneurs as cultural custodians in tourism: a social feminism theory perspective
Full text linkThis study, grounded in social feminism theory, examines how women entrepreneurs in Cyprus use tourism enterprises to preserve and transmit cultural knowledge. Drawing on 26 semi-structured interviews, the research examines how participants balance economic goals with cultural responsibilities. The analysis identifies five interrelated themes, cultural identity, integration, advocacy, collaboration, and resilience, that inform a conceptual framework explaining how entrepreneurial agency is shaped by gendered social roles and expectations. By positioning women entrepreneurs as agents of transformative change, this study extends social feminism theory to include the preservation and transmission of cultural knowledge as a critical dimension of entrepreneurial agency. By linking entrepreneurship to cultural stewardship, the study offers insights into how women deal with structural constraints while engaging in locally meaningful forms of sustainability. These findings offer implications for policymakers and development practitioners who seek to support gender-responsive, culturally rooted entrepreneurship in marginalised tourism contexts
Data sources:
Access Repository Dashboard
Do you manage University of Bedfordshire Repository? Access insider analytics, issue reports and manage access to outputs from your repository in the CORE Repository Dashboard!