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Leonides of Alexandria’s isopsephic poetry:An astronomical art?
Get PDFThis chapter examines the isopsephic poems of Leonides of Alexandria, who practised the isopsephic composition of epigrams, where letters of the Greek alphabet are read also according to their numerical value and where poems yield couplets of equal value. As I demonstrate in my recent monograph, Poetry and Number in Graeco-Roman Antiquity, Leonides’ poems mobilise allusions to earlier poetry to positively characterise his counting compositions. Building on that work, I follow up here my suspicion about the connection Leonides intimates between isopsephy and astronomy. I first consider two iambic poems that evidence isopsephy in poetry being understood as connected to the study of the skies. I then turn to Leonides’ poems which make explicit and implicit references to astronomy. This analysis will reveal that Leonides presents his isopsephic poetry as a quintessentially “astronomical art” through self-reflexive references to his poems and their composition, as well as through learned literary allusion
Power system benefits of simultaneous domestic transport and heating demand flexibility in Great Britain’s energy transition
Get PDFThe increasing share of variable renewables in power generation leads to a shortage of af- fordable and carbon neutral options for grid balancing. This research assesses the potential of demand flexibility in Great Britain to fill this gap using a novel linear optimisation model PyPSA-FES, designed to simulate optimistic and pessimistic transition pathways in National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios. PyPSA-FES models the future power system in Great Britain at high spatiotemporal resolution and integrates demand flexibility from both smart charging electric vehicles and thermal storage-coupled heat pumps. The model then optimises the trade-off between reinforcing the grid to align charging and heating profiles with renewable generation versus expanding dispatchable generation capacity. The results show that from 2030, under optimistic transition assumptions, domestic demand flexibility can enable an additional 20-30 TWh of renewable generation annually and reduce dispatchable generation and distri- bution network capacity by approximately 20 GW each, resulting in a total cost reduction of around £5bn yearly. However, our experiments suggest that half of the total system cost reduc- tion is already achieved by only 25% of electric vehicles alone. Further, the findings indicate that once smart electric vehicle charging reaches this 25% penetration rate in households, minimal benefits are observed for implementing smart 12-hour thermal storages for heating flexibility at the national level. Additionally, smart heating benefits decrease by 90% across all metrics when only pre-heating (without thermal storages) is considered. Spatially, demand flexibility is often considered to alleviate the need for north-south transmission grid expansion. While neither confirmed nor opposed here, the results show a more nuanced dynamic where generation capacities are moved closer to demand centres, enhancing connectivity within UK sub-regions through around 1000 GWkm of additional transmission capacity.<br/
Miniatures:A Reader in the History of Everyday Life
Get PDFThis book is the first of its kind to present readers with the rich and innovative source base deployed by scholars studying everyday life in the modern era. Twenty-eight researchers from diverse intellectual and disciplinary standpoints each present a favourite primary source for studying the history of everyday life, accompanied by a reflective commentary on the benefits, challenges, and potential pitfalls of using their chosen material.The sources included range from ego documents (diaries, memoirs, letters), oral testimonies, ethnographic fieldnotes, newspapers, magazines, and official documents to photographs, film, maps, floor plans, drawings, material objects, and instant messages. They cover topics and themes as varied as individual mentalities, emotions, identities, sense of place, sexuality, and agency; experiences of space, violence, war, childhood, humour, the body, and the senses; and the history of nationalism, diplomacy, political activism, youth culture, tourism, memory, dictatorship, colonialism, and race and racism.This book demonstrates not only the texture and fascination of people’s everyday lives, but also what a critical reading of this microscale can reveal about the broader sweep of history. It will be an invaluable resource for researchers and students alike interested in everyday life, in micro- and local-scales of analysis, and in the study of history and society ‘from below’
Up to half of companies would be behind on their climate targets under stricter scope 2 accounting rules
Get PDFCompanies have been accused of overstating their scope 2 emission reductions through purchases of ineffective renewable energy certificates (RECs). Therefore, several actors have proposed stricter accounting rules targeting additionality and deliverability. In this paper we explore how such restrictions would quantitatively affect the scope 2 emissions and target progress reported by companies. We consider three accounting restrictions: geographical proximity, facility age, and power purchase agreement. The study involves adjusting the market-based scope 2 emissions reported by 206 companies based on the portion of their purchased RECs that would become invalid under the proposed accounting restrictions. We find that the sample companies have more than doubled their purchases of RECs between their base year (typically 2019) and 2022, including an increase in RECs that would be invalid under the proposed accounting restrictions. The introduction of all three accounting restrictions would entail that the combined scope 2 emission reduction reported by the sample companies falls from 21% to 17%. Similarly, the share of sample companies that were behind on their climate target in 2022 would increase from 28% to 50% under all three accounting restrictions. However, a small subset of the company sample has over time replaced potentially invalid RECs with valid RECs, and the accounting restrictions would lead to improved target performance for these companies. Our findings can inform the revision of the greenhouse gas protocol and emerging accounting standards around renewable fuels.</p
Glycine-to-aspartic acid mutation at codon 51 in Snca disrupts the synaptic localisation of α-synuclein and enhances its propensity for synucleinopathy
Get PDFPoint mutations in the SNCA gene, which encodes α-synuclein (αSyn), are a known cause of familial Parkinson’s disease. The glycine-51-aspartic acid (G51D) mutation causes early-onset neurodegeneration with complex, wide-spread αSyn pathology. We used CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing to introduce the G51D point mutation into the endogenous rat Snca gene. Our goal was to investigate whether the G51D αSyn mutation gives rise to synucleinopathy and neurodegenerative phenotypes in rats. Co-localisation immunostaining studies with synaptic proteins revealed that αSynG51D protein fails to efficiently localise to synapses. Furthermore, biochemical isolation of synaptosomes from rat cortex demonstrated a significant depletion of αSyn in SncaG51D/+ and SncaG51D/G51D rats. Unbiased proteomic investigation of the cortex identified significant synaptic dysregulation in SncaG51D/G51D animals. Finally, we compared the propensity for synucleinopathy of Snca+/+ and SncaG51D/G51D rats by stereotaxically delivering αSyn pre-formed fibrils (PFFs) into the pre-frontal cortex. At an early time-point, 6 weeks post-injection, we observed discrete Lewy pathology-like structures positive for phosphoserine-129-αSyn (pS129-αSyn) only in SncaG51D/G51D brains. At 26 weeks post-injection of PFFs, SncaG51D/G51D brains exhibited intense, discrete pS129-αSyn-positive structures, while Snca+/+ brains exhibited diffuse pS129-αSyn immunostaining. In summary, G51D mutagenesis of the endogenous Snca rat gene caused reduced synaptic localisation of αSyn, proteomic evidence of early synaptic dysfunction, and enhanced propensity for αSyn pathology
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Get PDFSeasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning (ML) models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet they have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) streamflow forecasting system to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train a quantile regression forest model on dynamical precipitation and temperature forecasts from a multimodel ensemble of 196 members (eight seasonal climate forecast models) from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016, with up to 4 months' lead time. We show that the large-sample (multi-site) ML model trained on pooled catchment data together with static catchment attributes is narrowly but significantly more skilful compared to single-site ML models trained on data from each catchment individually. Considering all initialisation months, 60 % of stations show positive skill (CRPSS > 0) relative to climatological reference forecasts in the first month after initialisation. This falls to 41 % in the second month, 38 % in the third month, and 33 % in the fourth month
Accelerating the development of a psychological intervention to restore treatment decision-making capacity in patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder:An umbrella trial
Get PDFIntroduction: Many individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (‘psychosis’) lack capacity to make decisions about psychiatric treatment (‘incapacity’), however we lack robust evidence from clinical trials on interventions to improve it. To accelerate their development, we tested whether an ‘umbrella’ trial was feasible. This involved running multiple randomised controlled ‘interventionist-causal’ trials (IC-RCTs) concurrently. Each tested the effect on incapacity of targeting an individual psychological mechanism. Methods: We did 3 assessor-blind, multi-site, pilot IC-RCTs. Each compared 6 sessions of psychological therapy for either self-stigma (SS), low self-esteem (SE) or the jumping-to-conclusions (JTC) bias, to 6 sessions of collaborative assessment of the causes of incapacity (control). Adults with psychosis, incapacity and ≥1 target mechanism could participate. Primary outcomes were recruitment feasibility, and data retention on the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool-Treatment (MacCAT-T). Results: We recruited 57 participants and performed 60 randomisations (3 patients participated in 2 trials); 82 % provided post-treatment data. Standardised mean differences (Hedges' g) for MacCAT-T ‘understanding’ were g = 0.35 (SS; 95 % CI −0.51, 1.22), g = 0.41 (JTC; −0.55, 1.38) and g = 0.74 (SE; −0.73, 2.21), with positive values favouring treatment. For ‘reasoning’, they were −0.20 (SS; −1.05, 0.66), 0.79 (JTC; −0.20, 1.79) and 0.79 (SE −0.69, 2.27). For ‘appreciation’ they were −0.39 (SS; −1.25, 0.48), 1.76 (JTC; 0.62, 2.90) and 0.57 (SE; −0.87, 2.02). Four control participants had 9 serious adverse events between randomisation and post-treatment; two intervention participants had 2. Discussion: An umbrella trial of psychological interventions to improve capacity in psychosis is feasible. A definitive trial is warranted. Trial pre-registration: NCT04309435.</p
Smoking cessation for people accessing homeless support centres (SCeTCH):comparing the provision of an e-cigarette versus usual care in a cluster randomised controlled trial in Great Britain
Get PDFBACKGROUND: Smoking rates are exceptionally high among people experiencing homelessness. We aimed to test the effectiveness of an e-cigarette (EC) intervention designed to help people accessing homeless support services to stop smoking.METHODS: A two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial. We recruited 32 homeless centres (clusters) across Great Britain. Participants were aged 18 + and known by centre staff to smoke. Randomisation of clusters (1:1; using various block sizes) to EC or usual care (UC) was generated in Stata by the trial statistician, concealed from researchers. Participants in EC clusters received a refillable EC, 4-week supply of e-liquid, and a fact sheet. UC participants received very brief advice on smoking, a support leaflet, and signposting to the stop smoking service. Interventions were delivered by centre staff. The primary outcome was sustained abstinence from smoking from 2 weeks post-baseline through to 24 weeks, verified by carbon monoxide (CO) measurements below 8 ppm. Secondary outcomes included CO-verified 7-day point prevalence abstinence. Analysis was intention-to-treat.RESULTS: Between February 22, 2022, and June 22, 2023, 16 centres were randomised to EC (n = 239 participants) and 16 to UC (n = 238 participants). In UC, one participant died, and one withdrew consent. Final sample analysed: n = 239 (EC); n = 236 (UC). Sustained 24-week CO-validated smoking cessation rates were 5/239 (2.1%) with EC vs. 2/236 (0.8%) with UC (aRR: 2.43, 95%CI: 0.51-11.64). Seven-point prevalence abstinence was 15/239 (6.3%) in the EC arm vs. 5/236 (2.1%) in UC (aRR: 2.95, 95%CI: 1.05-8.29). Four adverse events were reported in the EC arm; three deemed EC-related and not serious; one serious and not EC-related.CONCLUSIONS: EC did not support sustained smoking abstinence for 24 weeks. Seven-day point prevalence abstinence rates suggest that cessation is possible, but more support may be needed to sustain this.TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was preregistered on the ISTCTN registry #18566874. Registration date: 12/10/2021.</p
Increasing book-talk and extending reading experiences among children with reading difficulties:The role of augmented reality books
Get PDFShared reading and book talk are common activities used to engage elementary school readers, yet can be anxiety provoking for those with reading difficulties. Identifying whether, and how, new technologies can foster more positive reading experiences for children with reading difficulties is therefore essential. This study compared children’s book-talk and reading experiences with an Augmented Reality (AR) and non-AR (matched in content) book. In total, 32 COUNTRY children (aged 8–10) with reading difficulties participated in dyads in two shared book reading sessions (AR/non-AR book, counterbalanced), with book-talk after each session, followed by a general discussion to learn of the similarities and differences in their AR/non-AR reading experiences. AR books significantly increased the quantity of children’s book talk (number of words spoken and sentence length) and many similarities and differences found in children’s experiences with the AR and non-AR book. Results are discussed in full, in addition to educational implications.</p
Comparative judgement as a research tool: a meta-analysis of application and reliability
Get PDFComparative judgement (CJ) provides methods for constructing measurement scales, by asking assessors to make a series of pairwise comparisons of the artefacts or representations to be scored. Researchers using CJ need to decide how many assessors to recruit and how many comparisons to collect. They also need to gauge the reliability of the resulting measurement scale, with two different estimates in widespread use: scale separation reliability (SSR) and split-halves reliability (SHR). Previous research has offered guidance on these issues, but with either limited empirical support or focused only on education research. In this paper, we offer guidance based on our analysis of 101 CJ datasets that we collated from previous research across a range of disciplines. We present two novel findings, with substantive implications for future CJ research. First, we find that collecting ten comparisons for every representation is generally sufficient; a more lenient guideline than previously published. Second, we conclude that SSR can serve as a reliable proxy for inter-rater reliability, but recommend that researchers use a higher threshold of .8, rather than the current standard of .7
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