Göteborgs universitets publikationer - e-publicering och e-arkiv
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Deep Learning Cocoa Price Prediction with Weather Data
No full textMSc in EconomicsClimate-induced volatility in global cocoa markets poses significant challenges to producers and stakeholders, notably evidenced by the severe price surge in late 2024 following adverse weather events. This thesis investigates whether integrating weather variables, specifically temperature and precipitation, with historical cocoa futures prices can enhance predictive accuracy using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. Leveraging daily price data from the ICE Futures U.S. exchange (1980–2025) and comprehensive meteorological data from the ERA5 dataset across key cocoa-producing regions, multiple LSTM models, including global and localised scales, were developed and evaluated. This deep learning approach to cocoa price prediction, incorporating meteorological inputs, addresses a gap in existing forecasting literature.
Contrary to prior studies and expectations, models incorporating detailed weather indicators did not improve forecasting accuracy over a baseline model relying solely on historical prices, which achieved a notably high predictive performance (R² ≈ 0.998). A global-scale model using average climate indicators matched the baseline model's predictive power (R² ≈ 0.986), while more localised models underperformed significantly. Robustness tests, including permutation importance analyses, confirmed that historical price data predominantly drove the levels of predictive power, respectively, with weather variables providing minimal incremental value. This lack of improvement suggests that weather impacts may already be priced into market trends due to market efficiency or were too complex to capture with the utilised naive LSTM model.
These results highlight methodological limitations, particularly the absence of cocoa yield data, which likely restricted the ability to capture the indirect economic impacts of weather conditions accurately. Future research incorporating this cocoa yield data within a structured causal framework, such as the DeepIV method, has the potential to more precisely model the economic transmission from climate impacts to the global cocoa market pricing
THE PERSUASIVE POWER OF GREEN: A 2x2 Experimental Study on Colour and Persuasion Knowledge in Environmental Policy Communication
No full textThis study investigates the persuasion effect of colour, specifically green, on environmental policy
advocacy in political communication. Although business research has shown that colour can
influence consumer behaviour and attitudes, there is a lack of systematic research on whether it has
a similar effect in political communication. To fill this research gap, the researcher uses the
Persuasion Knowledge Model (PKM) and colour congruence as a theoretical basis to examine
whether green can enhance people's attitudes and support towards environmental policies. This
experiment adopted a 2 (background colour: green vs. grey) × 2 (persuasion knowledge level: high
vs. low) design and collected responses globally through an online survey. The result showed that
although green is considered to have a higher congruence with environmental messages, it does not
significantly increase people's advertisement attitude and policy support. Persuasion knowledge has
a stable effect on attitude, while there is no significant interaction between it and the background
colour. The findings suggest that it is challenging to drive changes in attitudes and behaviours and
use green in the political field, despite its symbolic connotations with the environment. The result
also challenges the colour persuasion theory in political communication
NYHETSUNDVIKANDE OCH POLITISKT SJÄLVFÖRTROENDE. En kvantitativ analys av sambandet mellan nyhetskonsumtion och politiskt självförtroende, baserad på befintliga enkätdata från SOMinstitutet år 2023
No full textToday, copious amounts of national and international news are only a click away. With the
large-scale change in the media environment, we are witnessing a fundamental shift in the way
we consume news. Even though traditional media is not completely dead, a large portion of it
has been replaced by digital media platforms such as online news outlets, digital newspapers
and social media. Even though these platforms provide an accessible and constant flow of news
scholars have found that more and more people tend to avoid news, or at the very least, consume
less.
This change has puzzled scholars who through research have identified two main types of news
avoidance: intentional avoidance based on negative emotional reactions to news and
unintentional avoidance based on algorithms filtering out news or simply because other media
content is more interesting. One of many variables that studies have found to impact the levels
of news avoidance is internal political efficacy – one’s belief in their ability to understand and
participate in politics. Others argue that the reasoning behind avoidance should be of secondary
focus suggesting instead that focus should be on the fact that people consume low amounts of
news, not why they do. Therefore, not many studies have focused on how news avoidance or
levels of news consumption impact other parts of the individual’s perceived self – even though
many scholars highlight the damaging risks of low news consumption to both the individual
citizen and to democracy.
Since internal political efficacy’s explanatory effects on news avoidance mainly has been
studied in an international context and as a smaller part of broader studies on news avoidance,
we wish to flip the relationship and analyze whether levels of news consumption can explain
levels of internal political efficacy in a swedish context. In this study, levels of news
consumption will act as an indicator on news avoidance, as some previous studies has measured
it in that way. To achieve the purpose of our study, we formulated one main research question:
What is the relationship between news consumption and internal political efficacy
in a swedish context?
We based our study on the theoretical framework of news avoidance. The theory is a suitable
choice for this thesis since it brings clarity on why, how and when people choose to avoid news. In addition to the theoretical framework, we have also included previous research conducted on
news avoidance, levels of news consumption and internal political efficacy.
To answer the research question, we conducted a quantitative analysis based on existing data
from the 2023 national SOM-survey constructed by the SOM-institute. The survey consisted of
seven different forms, each answered by different people. In this study form number six was
used as material for the analysis, it consisted of 58 questions, and it was answered by 1,752
people ranging from ages 16-90. The form included questions about both news consumption
and internal political efficacy which is why it was selected as the material for this study. To
analyze the relationship between our two variables we created two index scales, one for news
consumption and one for internal political efficacy and then compared the two to one another.
A high score on the news consumption index indicated high levels of news consumption while
a high score on the internal political efficacy index indicated low levels of internal political
efficacy. We also included age and gender as control variables to see if the studied relationship
persisted when controlling for age and gender.
The results show a statistically significant negative correlation between news consumption and
internal political efficacy. Meaning that the respondents with low levels of news consumption
also reported low levels of internal political efficacy. A conducted regression analysis also
confirm that the relationship persists when controlling for age and gender. We also found that
both women and younger individuals were overrepresented among the respondents who showed
low levels of internal political efficacy, gender being the variable with a slightly stronger effect.
Since the used data is cross-sectional no definitive causal conclusions can be drawn from the
material. However, since strong implications was found, future research should consider
moving forward with trying to assess whether the relationship is causal or not. It should also
try to assess possible bidirectional effects.
Our findings align with previous research on news avoidance and internal political efficacy but
brings a unique contribute to the field by studying the relationship in a swedish context via
consumption frequency instead of self-reported motives. We therefore have studied news
avoidance as a habitual behavior rather than something intentional. Finding out how this
behavior relates to individuals’ belief in their political capacity is crucial for many reasons –
mainly democratic ones
Leading Across Borders: Navigating Cultural Differences in Multinational Organizations
No full textMSc in ManagementOrganizations increasingly rely on multinational teams in today's globalized business
environment to maintain competitiveness and drive innovation. While cultural diversity presents
opportunities for enhanced creativity and problem-solving, it challenges communication,
leadership, and organizational integration. This study explores how leaders in multinational
corporations (MNC) experience and discuss cultural differences and communication barriers in
multinational organizations. A qualitative research design was used by conducting
semi-structured interviews with 26 respondents with experiences from working as leaders in
various industries. From this, insights were provided showing how leaders experience cultural
differences and communication barriers and how they discuss this within their teams. The
findings show that leaders who are open, humble, and willing to learn are more suitable for
leading multinational teams. The collected data also shows the importance of team building and
open communication for leaders in international corporations through team-building activities at
the beginning of a project and flexible communication strategies. These strategies formed by the
team leaders are especially valuable in the increasing use of hybrid working models. This
research contributes to understanding how leaders experience and discuss cultural differences
and communication barriers in multinational organizations
The Art of Serial Acquisitions A study of the Swedish Serial Acquiring Elite’s Post-Acquisition Integration
No full textMSc in International Business and TradeAcquisitions are a widely used strategic tool for organizational growth in numerous sectors and
industries. The Swedish serial acquirers have developed the business model into a dual engine model
with organic and acquired growth through a series of annual acquisitions in a decentralized
management structure. The purpose of this study is to explore the factors influencing post-acquisition
integration, the extent to which subsidiaries are integrated, and how subsidiaries are strategically
acquired and utilized by the Swedish Serial Acquirers. The analysis is guided by transaction cost
economics, the resource-based view, knowledge transfer and absorptive capacity and dynamic
capabilities theory. The Swedish Serial Acquirers operates with a business model to grow both
organically and through acquisitions, organically, the organization cannot maintain the targeted goal
towards its shareholders, therefore acquisitions to grow. The post-acquisition integration process
varies with regards to the nature of the acquisition, platform or add-on acquisition. The Swedish serial
acquirers conduct acquisitions to achieve a scalable growth of the organization that would be to
challenging to reach organically, the vast majority, has set targets of growth rates within the range of
10–20%. This communicated targets towards the shareholders drives a deliberate and constant
business model where new firms are incorporated as wholly owned subsidiaries under a decentralized
corporate structure. The return on invested capital (ROIC) sets the pace at which the organization can
grow, since capital is compounded effectively into new subsidiaries. The level of integration varies with
regards to acquisition, whether it’s a platform acquisition or an add-on acquisition
AI och matchningseffektivitet på arbetsmarknaden- Undersöker sambandet mellan AI-använding och matchningseffektiviteten på den europeiska arbetsmarknaden
No full textThe recent developments in artificial intelligence are bound to change established work processes and in turn labor markets. One dimension – which AI impacts – is the labor market matching efficiency. The net effect of increased AI usage on the matching quality is ambiguous, as it affects several dimensions of the matching process. Using data from Eurostat, OECD and other national statistical bureaus, the relationship between AI and matching efficiency in Europe is estimated. Applying the Beveridge curve to measure matching efficiency, no relationship between increased AI usage and matching efficiency is found. If anything, using a broader measurement than unemployment – labor market slack – AI is correlated with improved matching efficiency. Findings also show industry heterogeneity, where job vacancies are impacted differently by AI depending on the industry. Regardless, the aggregated job vacancy is not correlated with increased AI usage. As such, findings suggest that net gains made from AI adoption are unlikely to come at the expense of a worse matching quality in Europe
Sitter det i väggarna? En kvalitativ studie om kultur och jargong på studentdrivna företag ur ett jämställdhetsperspektiv
No full textWomen and men's equal, or unequal treatment has long been a topic of conversation and the workplace is a place where the topic has been and continues to be in question. This study examines the jargon and culture within student-run companies in Gothenburg from a gender equality perspective, focusing on female and male perceptions. The study poses the research question: What does the culture and jargon look like in student-run companies in Gothenburg from a gender equality perspective? The choice of method for the study has been qualitative semi-structured interviews, which has been performed on current and former employees from several student-run companies in Gothenburg. The results show, on average, that the jargon and culture are perceived as relatively equal, but that there can be considerable variation across different areas. For example, in areas such as expectations and treatment in the workplace, women report feeling more negatively treated compared to their male colleagues. The conclusion is that the jargon and culture, generally is perceived as equal. The culture was considered friendly and the jargon was generally perceived as informal. There was however, some equality discrepancy in certain areas, for example, the self-assessment regarding their own performance differed between the women and men. This highlights the importance of continued research in the area and the need to better understand perceptions and equal treatment between women and men
Democratic Erosion and the News Media - An Exploratory Case Study of Sweden and the Freedom of Religion
Get PDFThis thesis explores the symptoms of early democratic erosion in the news media and the
role the news media may play in the process. As of now, there has yet to be any
contemporary research on that subject.
The thesis focuses on the process of democratic erosion within the aspect of civil liberties
and how symptoms of early democratic erosion can be visible in the media. Through
deductive reading of literature on democratic erosion and the normative roles of the news
media in a healthy democracy, the thesis identifies potential drivers of early democratic
erosion as jeopardizing civil liberties, especially those of minorities or a particular group.
More specifically, the symptoms of early democratic erosion in the news media are the
normalization of hostile discourse, the provision of a platform for anti-democratic ideas, the
normalization of political intolerance, the targeting of one group in the news media and the
use of propaganda or misinformation to manipulate the public. While the news media are not
solely responsible for democratic erosion, it is found that they can either counteract or
contribute to it. The news media contribute to the phenomenon by failing their normative
roles in a democracy and undermining democratic values. This can have different
dimensions, such as publishing anti-democratic discourse without challenging it or polarized
presentation of political issues or minorities without providing alternative perspectives.
Complicity of the news media, characterized by the news media simply echoing statements
from political actors, is part of this failure and subsequently contributes to democratic
erosion. However, the news media can also counteract democratic erosion by resisting such
polarization, publishing fact-checked information, and challenging anti-democratic statements
made by political actors. When the news media fulfill their normative roles dutifully, they can
create an environment in which healthy discussion flourishes and minority voices are
included equally, without hate speech and intolerant discourse dominating the public sphere.
These results are generalizable to liberal democracies and highlight the importance of the
news media adhering to their normative roles to safeguard and protect democracy.
To find out what these theorized symptoms and roles look like in reality, a case study of
Sweden over the years 2016 to 2023 is conducted. Two major news outlets (Aftonbladet and
Svenska Dagbladet) are analyzed regarding their presentation of Islam. The reason for this is
the previously established jeopardizing of civil rights as a main driver for democratic erosion
and the subsequent symptoms in the media. Islam’s exposure was chosen to represent how
freedom of religion is treated in the Swedish news media as the ascertained symptoms often
affect a particular group. In this case, Islam was selected because of recent Swedish history,
which saw a rise in the popularity of right-wing parties that deliberately attack Muslims
verbally. Additionally, crimes such as Quran burnings and Mosque attacks have increased in
the past years. Yet, Sweden is considered a stable and liberal democracy with freedom of
religion anchored in its constitution, making it an interesting case to analyze regarding early
democratic erosion and the role of the news media.
The reason for including a tabloid and a broadsheet is to compare the patterns over the
selected time frame in the analysis. The empirical analysis uses a mixed-methods approach
that examines Islam’s portrayal in the news media. First, a quantitative content analysis of
687 articles in total is conducted. While collecting that data, some articles that represent
respective symptoms were chosen and presented qualitatively alongside the results of the
quantitative analysis. The findings show that both news outlets display several symptoms of
early democratic erosion and have contributed to democratic erosion by being a microphone
for political actors in several instances over the past years. SvD is more committed to factful
informing of the public than AB, highlighting that tabloids are more drawn to sensationalist
reporting. Nonetheless, an increasing pattern of positive developments by SvD and AB can
be observed, especially in the year 2023, where both news outlets fulfill their normative roles
as watchdog more consistently and challenge the opinions of the elite more actively. This
enables an optimistic prediction for the future in the Swedish case. The Swedish news media
have the potential to play an essential role in safeguarding Swedish democracy by adhering
to their normative roles
Using digital tools in the treatment of diabetes in primary health care
Get PDFAbstract
Background: The use of digital tools in healthcare is increasing, particularly in the care of
individuals living with chronic conditions such as diabetes. Research indicates that digital
solutions can enhance patient participations, independence, and continuity of care, while also
facilitating improved self-care and health monitoring. However, challenges such as limited
usability, disparities in digital literacy, and healthcare professionals' attitudes towards
technology have been identified. Digital tools may serve as an important complement to faceto-
face encounters, contributing to patient's experience of participating and security with the
care relationship. Aim: The aim of this thesis is to highlight nurses’ experiences of using digital
tools in the care of patients with type 2 diabetes in primary health care. Method: A systematic
integrative literature review was conducted according to Whittemore & Knafl, with the database
searches conducted in CINAHL and PubMed. The results are presented based on eleven
articles. Results: The thesis identified two main categories and six subcategories. The first
category was The importance of care relationship, which includes the following three
subcategories: Opportunities and challenges in the digital care relationship, Increased
understanding and holistic perspective, and Continued need for physical meetings. The second
category was Organizational factors are perceived to influence the work, consisting of the
subcategories: Digital tools as support for collaboration, accessibility and competence
development, Time as a factor in digital healthcare work and Leadership and organization.
Conclusion: The findings highlight that a strong nurse-patient relationship is essential when
using digital tools. Moreover, having sufficient time, organizational support, and effective
teamwork are prerequisites for successful implementation. Digitalization was also found to
contribute to person-centered care, and there remains continued need for physical meetings.Bakgrund: Användandet av digitala verktyg inom hälso- och sjukvården ökar, särskilt inom
omvårdnaden av personer med kroniska sjukdomar såsom diabetes. Forskning visar att digitala
lösningar kan främja patienters delaktighet, självständighet och kontinuitet i vården, samtidigt
som de möjliggör förbättrad egenvård och hälsomonitorering. Samtidigt identifieras
utmaningar såsom bristande användarvänlighet, ojämlik digital kompetens samt
vårdpersonalens attityder till tekniska hjälpmedel. Digitala verktyg kan utgöra ett viktigt
komplement till fysiska möten och bidra till att stärka patientens upplevelse av delaktighet och
trygghet i vårdrelationen. Syfte: Syftet med examensarbetet är att belysa
sjuksköterskors erfarenheter av att använda digitala verktyg vid vård av patienter med typ 2
diabetes i primärvården. Metod: Systematisk integrativ litteraturöversikt enligt Whittemore &
Knafl där sökningen gjordes i databaserna CINAHL och PubMed. Resultatet presenteras utifrån
elva artiklar. Resultat: I examensarbetet framkom det två huvudkategorier samt sex
subkategorier. Den första huvudkategorin var Vårdrelationens betydelse och består av tre
subkategorier: Möjligheter och utmaningar med den digitala vårdrelationen, Ökad förståelse
och helhetsperspektiv och Fortsatt behov av fysiska möten. Den andra huvudkategorin var
Organisatoriska faktorer anses påverka arbetet och består av tre subkategorier: Digitala
verktyg som stöd för samarbete, tillgänglighet och kompetensutveckling, Tid som faktor i det
digitala vårdarbetet och Ledarskap och organisation. Slutsats: Det framkom att en god
relation med patienten är viktig vid användandet av digitala verktyg, att få tid avsatt, bra stöd
från organisationen och gott teamarbete är en förutsättning för att lyckas. Likaså att
digitalisering leder till personcentrerad vård och det finns ett fortsatt behov av fysiska möten
Svensk biståndspolitik: ett skifte från humanitär välvilja till strategiska intressen?
Get PDFThe purpose of this study is to examine whether the primary motive behind Swedish foreign
aid policy has shifted from humanitarian principles to national strategic interests between
2002 and 2024. Previous research points to a global trend that gained momentum after the
September 11 attacks in 2001, where states increasingly prioritize their own strategic interests
at the expense of humanitarian concerns. Given Sweden’s long tradition of providing
substantial foreign aid rooted in humanitarian principles, the country represents a least likely
case, which makes it a particularly relevant subject for analysis. The study applies a
qualitative motive analysis to all five foreign aid policy strategy documents presented by
Swedish governments during the 2000s. The documents were analyzed using a framework
informed by previous research and the theories of liberalism, neorealism, and soft power. The
findings indicate that there has been a shift in the leading motive from humanitarian
principles to strategic interests during the period. Two additional conclusions can also be
drawn: the shift occurred later than in other Western countries, but once it began, it
progressed more rapidly. The change was not gradual but rather abrupt, becoming clearly
visible in the 2023 strategy document. Possible explanations for these developments include
Sweden’s strong humanitarian legacy, which may have required a more radical change in
direction, and the war in Ukraine, which profoundly transformed Sweden’s security policy
context. The results suggest that even foreign aid policies historically grounded in
humanitarian principles can be swiftly redirected in response to geopolitical developments