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K4DD Conflict Evidence and Discourse Summary November 2025
No full textK4DD’s monthly Conflict Evidence and Discourse Summaries aim to signpost FCDO and others to the latest relevant evidence and discourse on conflict. This summary is organised by geographical region. </p
Fragmented Adaptive Social Protection in Contexts of Climate-Induced Displacement in Pakistan
No full textAs climate shocks intensify in the global South, social protection systems face growing challenges. In Pakistan’s Chitral district, where climate vulnerability intersects with poverty and displacement, adaptive social protection is urgently needed. This study uses Q methodology to explore displacement-affected people’s perceptions of state and non-state responses to climate-induced displacement. Findings reveal fragmented governance, elite capture, and gendered disparities in aid, with informal networks and non-governmental organisations often filling gaps left by formal systems. The study highlights the coexistence and tensions between formal and informal support, arguing for more integrated, inclusive, and context-sensitive social protection in fragile, climate-vulnerable settings.</p
Digital-ID in Côte d’Ivoire: Country Report
No full textThis report analyses the current state of digital-ID using the Centre for Internet and Society (CIS) framework. It assesses the legitimacy of use and governance of digital-ID in Côte d’Ivoire through three checks: rule of law, rights-based, and risk-based tests. The report begins with a brief history of ID in Côte d’Ivoire, followed by a general overview of its digital-ID system. The discussion then delves into analysis of the law and policies around digital-ID in Côte d’Ivoire using the three tests.</p
Targeting Social Assistance in Protracted Crises: Lessons from Ethiopia, Niger and Nigeria
No full textThis paper presents findings from three case studies, covering Ethiopia, Niger and Nigeria that examine the issue of targeting social assistance in contexts of protracted crisis. The primary focus of the studies comprises quantitative analysis of household budget survey microdata to identify the shock-affected populations and then analyse welfare dynamics pertaining to particular groups of interest. The second part of the analysis comprises a modelling exercise to simulate the performance of different targeting approaches in each country. A discussion of community-based targeting is also included, based on the literature. The paper concludes by considering the implications for social assistance policies.</p
Amplifying Voices from the Frontlines in the Global Politics of Energy Transition
No full textHow do the everyday politics of frontline struggles over energy relate to global debates about just transitions? This article reflects on how ‘local’ struggles can best be amplified and heard in ‘global’ policy debates, and the kind of alliances that might need to be formed for them to be heard. The state is the key intermediary between local struggles and global institutions and the designated entity and vehicle for representing citizens in global fora and enforcing rights, but is also frequently a rights violator and defender of the interests of private capital over collective welfare. There is a critical dissonance, therefore, between the roles that states are expected to perform in just transitions and the reality for many of them of limited capacity – or interest – in playing such roles. It is here that citizen action seeks to fill the gaps left by state inaction, negligence, and political and financial constraints.¿Cómo se relacionan las políticas cotidianas de las luchas locales por la energía con los debates globales sobre transiciones justas? Este artículo reflexiona sobre cómo las luchas “locales” pueden ser amplificadas y escuchadas en los debates de política “globales”, y qué tipo de alianzas deben formarse para que esto suceda. El Estado aparece como el intermediario clave entre las luchas locales y las instituciones globales, así como la entidad designada para representar a los ciudadanos en foros internacionales y hacer cumplir sus derechos.Sin embargo, a menudo incurre en violaciones de derechos y actúa como defensor de los intereses del capital privado por sobre el bienestar colectivo. Existe, por lo tanto, una disonancia crítica entre los roles que se espera que los Estados desempeñen en las transiciones justas y la realidad de muchos de ellos, caracterizada por capacidades limitadas, o falta de interés, en asumir tales funciones. Es en este vacío donde la acción ciudadana busca llenar los espacios que dejan la inacción estatal, la negligencia y las restricciones políticas y financieras.De que forma se relacionam as políticas quotidianas das lutas na linha da frente sobre energia com os debates globais acerca das transições justas? Este artigo reflecte sobre como as lutas ‘locais’ podem ser melhor amplificadas e ouvidas nos debates de política ‘globais’, bem como sobre o tipo de alianças que podem ser necessárias formar para que essas vozes sejam escutadas. O Estado surge como o principal intermediário entre as lutas locais e as instituições globais, sendo a entidade designada e o veículo para representar os cidadãos em fóruns internacionais e para fazer cumprir direitos, mas é também frequentemente um violador desses mesmos direitos e um defensor dos interesses do capital privado em detrimento do bem-estar colectivo. Existe, portanto, uma dissonância crítica entre os papéis que se espera que os Estados desempenhem nas transições justas e a realidade de muitos deles, marcada por uma capacidade limitada – ou mesmo pela falta de interesse – em assumir tais papéis. É neste espaço que a acção cidadã procura colmatar as lacunas deixadas pela inacção, negligência e constrangimentos políticos e financeiros do Estado.</p
Essential but Unseen: Women Frontline Workers in Yemen
No full textWomen frontline workers in Yemen are crucial for delivering cash transfers and responding to the needs of women and girls. They take on both substantial responsibilities and personal risk, operating in a context of enduring conflict, deep poverty and unequal norms. Many juggle paid roles with heavy domestic duties. Their pay is inadequate and unpredictable, while their contracts are short-term and insecure, with few opportunities for promotion. Moreover, their personal well-being is largely overlooked. Improving social assistance in Yemen requires better pay, leadership opportunities, and targeted occupational safety, mental health support and training for women frontline workers.</p
Serious Organised Crime in Ethiopia
No full textThis rapid literature review explores the main serious and organised crime (SOC) markets, actors, and dynamics in Ethiopia. There is limited data and literature available on organised crime and criminal markets in Ethiopia in part due to Ethiopia’s focus on transnational trafficking, as well as relatively recent reforms. Some of this focus is also due to the fact that Ethiopia has recently undergone a conflict, a transition, and is the location of numerous terrorist organisations. Some of these organisations have complicated interfaces with organised criminal groups, but it is both the conflict and terrorist organisations that have garnered the plurality of international academic focus.</p
Disability Inclusion in the MENA Region
No full textThis rapid evidence review collates available evidence on disability inclusion in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The review draws upon an expanding evidence base that includes academic and grey literature.</p
Factors Shaping Adolescent Snack Choices in Urban Bangladeshi Schools: A Mixed Methods Study
No full textResearch on adolescents’ snack choices in school food environments has predominantly focused on high-income countries, leaving gaps in low- and middle-income contexts. This study addresses these gaps by examining snack choices and their individual, social and environmental influencing factors among adolescents in 20 urban high schools in Bangladesh using a mixed-methods approach guided by a conceptual model informed social cognitive theory (SCT) and an ecological perspective. Quantitative data were collected through surveys with 975 adolescents (ages 11–17), while qualitative data included focus group discussions with 60 adolescents. Adolescents frequently purchased energy-dense, non-nutritious snacks during school breaks, spending 10–20 Bangladeshi Taka (0.1–0.2 USD) daily. Individual factors such as taste were not widely prioritised in the quantitative survey but emerged as a central influence in the qualitative FGDs, often overriding health or hygiene considerations. While health considerations were frequently reported across both data sources, adolescents typically defined healthy food in terms of safety from contamination and chemical adulteration, rather than nutritional content. Many viewed home-cooked meals as compensating for less healthy snacks. Social peer influences were perceived as secondary in the survey data, yet qualitative findings revealed that peers exerted a significant influence through shared routines, group preferences, and subtle conformity. Environmental factors, including cost, availability, and hygiene, were cited less frequently in the survey but featured prominently in the FGDs. Adolescents often selected snacks based on affordability, accessibility, and perceived cleanliness, highlighting the influence of the school food environment on their choices. Interventions should generate demand for nutritious snacks, address food safety concerns, challenge compensatory health beliefs, and consider adolescents’ psycho-emotional stressors. Policies must reshape school food environments to ensure safe, affordable, and nutritious snacks.</p
Has the Philippines Reversed its Democratic Decline?
No full textThe Philippines offers a case study of the difficulties of determining whether a sustainable reversal of a country’s ‘regime trajectory’ is under way. President Rodrigo Duterte’s tenure (2016–22) witnessed an assault on liberal norms and institutions. To the surprise of many, his successor, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, has taken actions that suggest the rule of law might be making a comeback. But what evidence is there that the authoritarian tide has ebbed? And what can recent history reveal about the dynamics of democratic backsliding and the potential to insulate policymaking from such trends? While Marcos has curtailed Duterte’s most egregious practices, accountability institutions continue to be systematically subverted. Two decades of regime uncertainty have not, however, prevented successive presidents from pursuing liberal approaches in two policy areas: peace-building in the war-torn Bangsamoro region and promoting gender equality. Continuity amid illiberal headwinds was in both cases facilitated by the creation of specialised institutions that draw civil society into policymaking.</p