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Zambian Poverty Dynamics and Climate Resilience: A Growing Policy Agenda Through a Period of Crises
No full textThis report synthesises the key research findings of the Zambia Poverty Dynamics programme since the last national report in 2021, whose key findings and recommendations are summarised in Box 1.1. Many dimensions have remained the same; however, the main changes include: (1) a dramatic reversal in urban poverty reduction; (2) a very significant increase in new policy developments, especially in human development, although not yet in ‘growth from below’, but significant progress was achieved in fisheries with the return of fishing ban periods each year on major rivers and lakes to allow fish stocks to recover, laying the foundation for income growth in fishing.This report starts by laying out which policy interventions have become significantly more visible and impactful since the last report, presenting the evidence from quantitative and qualitative research, and focusing on governance and implementation issues. Policy interventions are even more critical to poverty reduction and climate resilience in the Zambian context, it is argued, because of the ‘enclave’ nature of the dominant mining sector, which leads economic growth, at least when commodity prices are high (Pijuan Sala and Tudela Pye 2024), and which the current government wishes to grow rapidly. The majority of Zambians are employed or self-employed in comparatively low-productivity sectors, agriculture and services, which are generally disconnected from mining and other formal sectors such as tourism. Resulting high levels of inequality do not generate the market demand for micro- and small businesses’ outputs and services, leaving these with low investment and productivity. But they do generate the need and potential for redistribution through taxation, even if fiscal resources are for the moment heavily constrained by debt servicing.As a result of these high inequalities, growth has not carried everyone with it. Therefore, only interventions will assist poor and vulnerable people to improve their life chances, until the pattern of growth changes and begins to make a contribution. So far the most successful interventions have been in human development. Their success has been extremely valuable but has not yet laid the foundations for more inclusive growth from below, which is necessary if poverty is to be sustainably reduced. Both of these – human development and growth from below – are required to enable sustained escapes from poverty or ‘graduations’, which are the objective of anti-poverty policy.The report goes on to briefly assess the effects of the multiple crises that have assailed Zambia in the past five years, with an analysis of impacts on urban populations, and differentiating between extremely poor and moderately poor households, and men- and women-headed households. It also looks at policy responses to these crises, including disaster risk management, and raises the question of how to respond in the likely event that such crisis-prone times continue. This is followed by a closely related discussion on whether and how more widespread resilience to climate change might be achieved. The analysis is gendered throughout, and concludes with key policy and programming recommendations.</p
How Cities Source Their Food: Spatial Interactions in West African Urban Food Supply
No full textIn West Africa, increasing rural–urban flows of food, driven by growing urban populations, require functional, efficient links between cities and production areas. However, underlying mechanisms of urban food sourcing in West Africa are poorly understood. This study deepens understanding of spatial interactions between cities and production areas by examining the effects of settlement size, geographical distance, and agricultural suitability on food inflows to four West African cities. The analysis was informed by theoretical spatial models and data on food flows, road network, agricultural suitability, and settlements. Results showed that food travelled further from larger supplying settlements, and towards the two larger destination cities. This supports the idea of a hierarchical system, where food provisioning area and upstream supply chain length increase with settlement size. Overall, towns with fewer than 100,000 inhabitants, often representing aggregation centres, were among the major suppliers to the cities. Complementary agricultural suitability between origin and destination shaped food flow direction and length, but poor road access and international borders impeded trade. Spatial models did not fully explain food flows: they were also influenced by historical factors shaping certain settlements’ importance as sources. Study cities were supplied by a diversity of more and less concentrated food sources, representing production sites or aggregating markets, which should theoretically support food supply resilience. Improvements to storage and road infrastructure, and removing trade barriers, could improve food supply to cities, and producer and trader livelihoods. Emerging research on urban food systems governance could support understanding of how best to do this.</p
Banco de preguntas sobre fiebres hemorrágicas virales (FHV): preguntas cualitativas para conocer mejor la dinámica de transmisión y las experiencias asistenciales
No full textLas fiebres hemorrágicas virales (FHV) son un conjunto de enfermedades graves causadas por virus que afectan a diferentes aparatos orgánicos y dañan el sistema cardiovascular. Entre las FHV se incluyen la enfermedad por el virus del (EVE) y la enfermedad por el virus de Marburgo. Existen grandes variaciones en la forma en que se diagnostican las FHV, su capacidad infecciosa, su distribución geográfica, sus reservorios conocidos (es decir, los animales, o insectos que propagan la enfermedad) y la disponibilidad de vacunas o tratamientos para combatirlas. Al utilizar este banco de preguntas en el marco de una emergencia de salud pública específica orientada a una FHV identificada, tenga en cuenta estos factores junto con el análisis contextual actualizado del país y la progresión clínica de la enfermedad entre las poblaciones en situación de riesgo.El desarrollo de este banco de preguntas se ha basado en más de 10 años de extensas investigaciones en el ámbito de las ciencias sociales realizadas durante brotes de FHV y otras emergencias de salud pública relacionadas con enfermedades infecciosas. Muchas de las áreas temáticas que aborda este banco de preguntas serán relevantes para los brotes de FHV en los que la transmisión entre personas se ha identificado como un factor contribuyente importante para la propagación del brote y en los que deban conocerse mejor las experiencias asistenciales para ofrecer una respuesta centrada en la comunidad. Las preguntas deberán adaptarse a la FHV específica, el contexto del país y la población encuestada.</p
Banque de questions sur les fièvres hémorragiques virales : Questions qualitatives visant à comprendre la dynamique de transmission et les expériences de soins
No full textLes fièvres hémorragiques virales (FHV) regroupent un ensemble de maladies graves causées par des virus qui affectent plusieurs systèmes d’organes et portent atteinte au système cardiovasculaire. Les FHV comprennent la maladie à virus Ebola et la maladie à virus Marburg. Il existe des variations importantes dans la manière dont les FHV sont diagnostiquées, leur caractère pathogène, leur répartition géographique, leurs réservoirs connus (c.-à-d. les animaux ou les insectes qui propagent la maladie) et la disponibilité des vaccins ou des traitements. Lorsque vous utilisez cette banque de questions pour une urgence de santé publique spécifique liée à une FHV identifiée, tenez compte de ces facteurs en complément d’une analyse contextuelle actualisée à l’échelle nationale et de la progression clinique de la maladie parmi les populations à risque.L’élaboration de cette banque de questions s’appuie sur plus de 10 ans de recherches approfondies en sciences sociales menées lors de flambées épidémiques de FHV et d’autres urgences de santé publique liées à des maladies infectieuses. De nombreux domaines thématiques couverts par cette banque de questions seront pertinents pour les flambées épidémiques de FHV lorsque la transmission interhumaine a été identifiée en tant que facteur important de propagation de l’épidémie et que les expériences des patients en matière de soins doivent être comprises pour une riposte centrée sur les communautés. Les questions doivent être adaptées à la FHV spécifique, au contexte national et à la population des personnes interrogées.</p
Beyond the Tax Bill: Measuring Tax Compliance Costs for Ugandan Firms
No full textFor low-income countries looking to enhance revenue mobilisation without harming firm growth, understanding the full burden of taxation, beyond just tax liabilities, is crucial. This paper documents the substantial and often regressive tax compliance costs faced by small and medium-sized firms in Uganda. Using original survey data from nearly 2,000 taxpaying firms across Uganda, matched to administrative tax returns data, I show that compliance costs are significant, equivalent to two per cent of turnover for the median firm, with smaller firms bearing a disproportionate burden. Moreover, total compliance costs often exceed firms’ tax liabilities. Breaking down cost components, I find that labour time spent on tax compliance activities is the largest component, with tax compliance consuming a median of 34 hours of labour time per month, and approximately 20 per cent of firm owners’ working hours. I show that the majority of firms outsource at least part of their tax obligations to a tax agent, often to compensate for limited tax knowledge. These agents are relatively expensive, costing a median of US$54 per month. Adopting compliance technologies does not significantly reduce reported compliance costs or time, although firms perceive that technology makes compliance easier. Finally, I use a survey experiment to test how sensitive compliance costs measures are to the measurement strategy, finding significant divergence between estimates obtained through a detailed set of questions and a more aggregate question. Discrepancies between estimates are reduced when respondents are primed with the detailed set of questions first, suggesting that simple aggregate questions might not capture compliance costs in a consistent manner.</p
Energy Transition in the Context of Crisis: A Comparative Analysis of Lebanon and Sudan
No full textIn this report, Muez Ali and Rasha Akel examine the challenges and opportunities of transitioning to renewable energy in both countries amidst economic and political turmoil. Lebanon and Sudan face severe energy sector crises due to financial mismanagement, conflict, and reliance on fossil fuel imports. The report highlights how these crises have inadvertently accelerated the shift towards decentralized renewable energy solutions, particularly solar energy, as a means of survival rather than planned policy shifts. It also discusses governance issues, the role of international donors, and regulatory gaps that hinder large-scale renewable energy adoption. Despite challenges, the transition to renewable energy in both countries presents opportunities for greater energy security, economic stability, and reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels.Arabic version available.</p
Powering the Future of MENA – Energy Transition Country Profiles: Review of Data and Literature
No full textThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region stands at a critical crossroads in its energy transition. As home to between 48.3% and 58% of the world’s oil reserves and over 43% of global gas reserves, MENA countries have long depended on fossil fuel exports for economic stability. However, with increasing global commitments to decarbonization, declining oil and gas demand, and mounting climate change vulnerabilities, the region must rapidly adapt. Despite policy commitments to renewable energy (RE), the region’s RE share remains critically low, contributing only 0.4% to the total primary energy mix, with non-hydro renewables making up just 6% of total energy generation. Many MENA economies have not fully leveraged their fossil fuel wealth to develop diversified, resilient economies. Instead, they remain rentier states, highly dependent on external markets for revenue. Energy demand across MENA is rising at an annual rate of 1.9%, creating an urgent need to expand renewable energy infrastructure to meet future consumption needs sustainably.A key driver of the energy transition in MENA is the role of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which make up 90% of businesses in several countries and play a significant role in economic activity, employment, and innovation. MSMEs can be instrumental in advancing RE adoption, particularly in decentralized energy systems such as solar microgrids, energy efficiency technologies, and distributed power generation. Their contributions extend beyond economic benefits, as they help reduce dependence on fossil fuels, lower carbon emissions, and create sustainable employment opportunities. However, despite their potential, MSMEs in MENA face substantial barriers, including limited access to climate finance, regulatory inefficiencies, and inadequate infrastructure. Without targeted policies and financial mechanisms to support them, their role in the transition will remain constrained.The study finds that the MENA region faces significant challenges in its energy transition, including an over-reliance on fossil fuels, inadequate grid infrastructure, high regulatory and financial barriers, and growing electricity demand, particularly for space cooling and desalination. However, it also identifies opportunities for transformation, such as the region’s abundant solar and wind resources, declining costs of RE technologies, and increasing international support for green investments. While some countries, such as the UAE, Egypt, and Morocco, have demonstrated leadership in RE development, others lag behind due to political instability, weak governance, or financial constraints.</p
Rapid Scoping Review 2025: Nigeria
No full textNigeria’s socio-political and economic environment presents significant challenges for women’s rights and for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, and more (LGBTQI+) rights. Women also face discriminatory practices, such as in the northern Kano state, where civil service rules penalise women for pregnancy-related training interruptions. In March 2022, the National Assembly rejected five gender bills that sought to enhance women’s representation in politics by creating reserved seats and mandating significant female representation in political appointments. This setback reflects ongoing challenges in achieving gender equality in Nigeria. Expressions of homosexuality/same-sex sexual activity are criminalised in Nigeria. For this brief, a total of 16 organisations, individuals, and smaller groups were analysed, providing a comprehensive perspective on efforts to counter rollback. It explores the context of rollback, the landscape of anti-rollback actors, counter-rollback strategies, and gaps and areas for future research and work.</p
Rapid Scoping Review 2025: South Africa
No full textSection 9 (3) of the Bill of Rights in South Africa’s Constitution, introduced in 1996, prohibits unfair discrimination on the grounds of ‘race, gender, sex, pregnancy, marital status, ethnic or social origin, colour, sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, conscience, belief, culture, language and birth’. This legal framework offers protection, and formal recognition as equal citizens, to women and to lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, and more (LGBTQI+) people. It also positions South Africa as an important regional place of refuge for LGBTQI+ Africans, despite the country’s high rates of gender-based violence (GBV) and xenophobia. Conversely, South Africa is also a ‘launchpad’ for backlash actors, and has hosted a number of regional convenings of (for example) Family Watch International (FWI) and the World Congress of Families (WCF). Anti-rights actors active in the country include affiliates of the WCF such as the Family Policy Institute, a ‘pro-life, pro-family think-tank. Two of South Africa’s political parties, the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and Al Jama-ah, a Muslim conservative organisation, are explicitly anti-LGBTI. This brief explores the context of rollback, the landscape of anti-rollback actors, counter-rollback strategies, and gaps and areas for future research and work.</p
Water Resource Management in Jordan: An Annotated Bibliography
No full textThis rapid bibliography reviews academic and grey literature to provide an overview of Jordan’s water resources, issues which inform inequalities and inequity in water access, principal water resource management strategies, and transboundary water resources and issues influencing regional water politics.</p