Archivio istituzionale della ricerca - Università degli Studi di Venezia Ca' Foscari
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Multiple Equilibria and the Phillips Curve: Do Agents Always Underreact?
Get PDFWe study a New Keynesian Phillips curve in which agents deviate from the rational expectation paradigm and forecast inflation using a simple, potentially misspecified autoregressive rule. Consistency criteria à la Hommes and Zhu (2014) between perceived and actual laws of motion of inflation might allow for multiple expectational equilibria. Unfortunately, multiple equilibria models pose challenges for empirical validation. This paper proposes a latent Markov chain process to dynamically separate such equilibria. Moreover, an original Bayesian inference approach based on hierarchical priors is introduced, which naturally offers the possibility of incorporating equilibrium-identifying constraints with various degrees of prior beliefs. Finally, an inference procedure is proposed to assess a posteriori the probability that the theoretical constraints are satisfied and to estimate the equilibrium changes over time. We show that common prior assumptions regarding structural parameters favor the separation of equilibria, thereby making the Bayesian inference a natural framework for Markov-switching Phillips curve models. Empirical evidence obtained from observed inflation, output gap, and the consensus expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters supports multiple equilibria, and we find evidence of temporal variation in over-and under-reaction patterns, which, to the best of our knowledge, have not been previously documented. Specifically, we observe that agents tend to underreact to shocks when inflation is high and persistent, whereas they behave substantially as fully informed forecasters when the inflation level is low and stable, i.e., after the mid-nineties. We also find that the model does not suffer from the missing disinflation puzzle during the Great Recession
Il ms. Paris BnF It.440: studio filologico e linguistico del Volgarizzamento salentino del 'Tresor' di Brunetto Latini - Edizione capp. 25-200
Get PDFIl progetto di ricerca portato avanti nel corso dei tre anni di dottorato ha visto la realizzazione di un’edizione critica (anche in ambiente digitale) del primo libro dell’Adattamento salentino del Tresor di Brunetto Latini (ms. N= BnF it. 440) con l’obiettivo di valutarne l’effettiva dipendenza da un gruppo di manoscritti di area francese che tramandano l’opera. L’edizione è corredata da un commento linguistico (in particolare, fonetica e morfologia), realizzato a partire dallo spoglio integrale dei tre libri che compongono il Tresor, che ha messo in evidenza connotazioni di varia provenienza, distinguendo le caratteristiche genericamente ascrivibili all’area panitaliana da quelle tipiche dell’area del Mezzogiorno e da quelle provenienti dell’estrema area linguistica salentina.The research project carried out over the course of the three years of the doctorate focused on the realisation of a critical edition (also in a digital environment) of the first book of the Adattamento salentino del Tresor by Brunetto Latini (ms. N= BnF it. 440) with the aim of assessing its effective dependence on a group of manuscripts from the French area that have handed down the work. The edition is accompanied by a linguistic analysis (in particular, phonetics and morphology), carried out from the integral counting of the three books that make up the Tresor, which has highlighted connotations of various origins, distinguishing features generically ascribable to the Pan-Italian area from those typical of the Mezzogiorno area and those from the extreme linguistic area of Salento
Past wave climate reconstruction through paleo shoreline analysis
Get PDFBeach ridges serve as physical records of predominant wave direction. Along the
Patagonian coast of Argentina, changes in relative sea level have preserved sequences of beach ridges on Last Interglacial and Holocene terraces. At Bahía Laura, a reference site in Patagonia, we use open source software, MeePaSoL, to estimate dominant wave approach angles for modern, mid-Holocene, and Last Interglacial shorelines. We then use XBeach software to run a suite of numerical simulations aimed at identifying offshore wave conditions capable of generating the inferred nearshore wave patterns. The most plausible model scenarios provide insights into how regional wave climate may have changed over millennia. This approach helps us investigate past climate drivers and contributes to understanding future wave-climate dynamics in a changing world
Il Progetto ASS.IT – Associazioni di Insegnanti di Lingua italiana a Stranieri
No full textThe paper presents the ASS.IT project, which has been working to connect associations that serve teachers of Italian for foreigners around the world for the last 5 years. Thanks to the project’s website, an annual online conference, and the publication of reports by association representatives, the goal
of the project is to build a network that can enhance skills, experiences, and people involved in Italian for Foreigners associations spread throughout the world
100 idee per Venezia
Get PDFIl volume è il frutto del contributo di circa 250 cittadini, coinvolti in Ri-Pensare Venezia, un percorso partecipativo iniziato nel 2023 e che ha dato forma ad una visione nuova e originale della città. Attraverso analisi e proposte, delinea il progetto di una Venezia giovane, verde, attrattiva e attenta. Il testo arriva ad immaginare una “città arcipelago”, le cui politiche valorizzano le specificità e le vocazioni delle singole zone urbane, componendole in un disegno unitario che guarda al futuro.
Con il supporto di dati e di esperienze, si racconta un approccio visionario ma non utopico o velleitario. Alla base vi è l’idea che sia importante lavorare sulle opportunità, soprattutto se si vuole
mobilitare la partecipazione dei cittadini e coinvolgerli nei processi ideativi e deliberativi della città, con l’obiettivo di creare una piattaforma di confronto in cui i problemi vengono affrontati e approfonditi nella loro possibilità di divenire occasioni di riscatto e cambiamento.
In due anni di lavoro si sono succeduti workshop, relazioni, tavoli, seminari, organizzati attraverso call aperte rivolte a tutta la cittadinanza. Tanti spazi e diversi strumenti di lavoro in cui ognuno ha potuto dire la propria, prima sul fronte dell’analisi e poi su quello della proposta. Un percorso che ha consentito un cambio di registro tra questo volume e il primo report, “Venezia come stai?”, pubblicato nel 2024, che ha rappresentato uno strumento di lavoro fondamentale per la crescita del progetto. In questo nuovo volume le analisi aprono la strada alle proposte e alle idee per costruire una città capace di progettare il futuro affrontando le sfide del presente
Second-order accurate likelihood inference for meta-analysis of comparative studies with binary outcomes
No full textWe apply modern likelihood asymptotics to one-step methods for meta-analysis of comparative studies with binary outcomes. This approach requires a complete statistical model for the original data, rather than just a model to combine the summary statistics of individual studies as in two-step methods.
We illustrate the advantages of calculating accurate confidence intervals in the
common case where meta-analysis combines a limited number of studies and thus ordinary first-order accurate likelihood methods may yield incorrect inferential conclusions
Una storia di periferia. Luoghi, contesti e attori dell’antimperialismo italiano
No full textThis editorial situates Italian anti-colonialism within a long, transnational tradition of radical internationalism stretching from fin-de-siècle anarchism to the post-1945 era. It traces symbolic and material continuities - from Pietro Gori’s Stornelli d’esilio, rooted in the exile networks of nineteenth-century anarchists, to the anti-imperialist cultural production of groups like Cantacronache during the Algerian War. Highlighting decolonisation as a catalyst for new forms of political imagination, the text argues that Third World liberation movements reshaped global geographies, generating unprecedented circulations of people, ideas, and practices. The issue of «Zapruder» proposes to reassess these dynamics by moving beyond top-down approaches focused on party leaderships, instead privileging encounters, grassroots initiatives, and everyday militant experiences. Emphasising spatial approaches and microhistorical methods, it analyses how actors located in “peripheral” yet influential sites contributed to anti-colonial and anti-imperialist struggles. Ultimately, the dossier seeks to reveal how seemingly marginal or exceptional cases illuminate broader transformations in the political cultures of the Global 1960s and 1980s
ON THE SYNTACTIC REPRESENTATION OF CO-SPEECH GESTURES IN EXPRESSIVE LANGUAGE
No full textLanguage is assumed to be a multimodal system in which
prosody, manual and non-manual gestures, and body positioning interact
with syntactic structure in systematic ways. While gestures have often been
analyzed from a semantic perspective, recent work has shown that they can
be integrated into the syntactic architecture of the clause. We adopt this
perspective and propose an analysis of co-speech gestures in expressive
contexts, focusing on emotional meanings such as surprise and disapproval.
Data from typologically diverse languages are considered. The discussion
addresses three main questions: (i) What triggers the use of gesture in
expressive utterances? (ii) Are these gestures language-specific or universal?
(iii) What is their role within the grammar? We argue that a formal model
integrating syntax, prosody, and gestures is required to account for the
structural properties of expressive phenomena and to advance a theory of
language as a fundamentally multimodal architecture
