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Mathematical modeling approaches for seasonal exacerbations of bacterial meningitis
No full textThe 3rd BEYOND 2023: Computational Science, Mathematical Modeling and Engineering Conference TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara-Turkey, 19-20 October 2023The seasonal, periodic or momentary increase in the incidence of an infectious disease, corresponding to seasons or different time periods within the year, is an important process from a public health perspective and characterizes the dynamics of the spread of many infectious diseases. Mathematical modeling techniques are used to understand the multilayered structure of seasonal exacerbations of an infectious disease, and the tools of dynamical systems theory are used to analyze these models. In this talk, after an overview of some approaches in the literature on mathematical modeling of periodic exacerbations of infectious diseases, I will present a mathematical modeling approach for periodic exacerbations of bacterial meningitis and simulations of different scenarios for a possible bacterial meningitis outbreak
State Practices as a New Motivation for Terrorism: the Case of Isis
No full textThis study is written on the purpose of evaluating the possibility of the emergence of state practices as a new motivation for terrorism. It has been tried to examine the place of exhibiting state practices in the dominated territory in the way of developing spheres of influence that are important for terrorist organizations. For this purpose, within the scope of this study, primarily motivations for terrorism and war were determined, compared, and evaluated. Then, the cases of FARC, LTTE, Al Qaeda, and ISIS were examined and compared in terms of financial, military, ideological, and spheres of influence, then the relationship between state practices and spheres of influence in terms of these organizations was revealed. In order to measure the influence of the organizations, the potential to attract foreign terrorist fighters was determined as a reference point and comparisons were made between organizations according to these potentials. The starting point of this study is to reveal whether the high potential of attracting foreign terrorist fighters of ISIS has a relationship with the state practices it implements. As a result of the study, it has been observed that although the state practice is not sufficient on its own, it creates a multiplier effect on the spheres of influence of terrorist organizations when it is applied under certain conditions. Key Words: Terrorism, State Practice, Foreign Terrorist Fighters, ISIS, Al QaedaBu çalisma, devlet pratiklerinin yeni bir terör motivasyonu olarak ortaya çikabilme ihtimalini degerlendirmek amaciyla kaleme alinmistir. Terör örgütleri için büyük önem arz eden etki alanlarini gelistirme yolunda hakim olunan alan içerisinde devlet pratikleri sergilemenin yeri incelenmeye çalisilmistir. çalismanin çikis noktasi ise ISID terör örgütünün sahip oldugu yüksek yabanci savasçi çekme potansiyelinin uyguladigi devlet pratikleriyle bir iliskisi olup olmadigini ortaya koymaktir. Bu amaçla çalisma kapsaminda öncelikle terör ve savas motivasyonlari belirlenmis ve karsilastirilarak degerlendirilmistir. Ardindan FARC, LTTE, El Kaide ve ISID vakalari finansal, askeri, ideolojik ve etki alanlari açilarindan incelenerek karsilastirilmis ve bu örgütler açisindan devlet pratikleri ve etki alanlari arasindaki iliski ortaya konulmustur. Örgütlerin etki alanini ölçmek amaciyla yabanci terrorist savasçi çekme potansiyelleri referans noktasi olarak belirlenmis ve bu potansiyellere göre örgütler arasi karsilastirmalar yapilmistir. Çalismanin sonucunda devlet pratiginin bu hususta tek basina yeterli olmasa da belirli sartlar altinda uygulandiginda örgütlerin etki alanlari üzerinde bir çarpan etkisi yarattigi gözlemlenmistir
Economic Interaction Between the Greek Orthodox Church and the Ottoman State in the Seventeenth-Century Ottoman Documents
No full textBu tez, 17. yüzyılda Rum Ortodoks Kilisesi'nin, Osmanlı Devleti karşısındaki ekonomik faaliyetlerinin, arşiv kaynaklarının eksikliği nedeniyle tarihçiler tarafından sıklıkla ihmal edilen doğasını incelemektedir. Bu çalışma hem dini hem de dini olmayan konuları kapsayan kayıtları içeren Atik Şikâyet Defterleri ve Mühimme Defterleri gibi iki önemli arşiv koleksiyonunu sistematik bir şekilde tarayarak, 1650-1690 yılları arasındaki etkileşimlerinin mali yönlerine ilişkin hükümlerin incelenmesi ve analizi yoluyla bu zorlukların üstesinden gelmeye çalışmaktadır. Kilise mensupları ile Osmanlı devlet idaresi yetkilileri arasında gelişen dinamikleri ortaya çıkaracaktır. Bu kaynaklardaki dilekçe sahiplerinin dini, hukuki, mali ve sosyal dinamikleriyle birlikte incelenmesi, ikincil literatürde genellikle kriz olarak nitelendirilen bu dönemin mali değişimlerine ışık tutacaktır. Aralarındaki mali ilişkilerin krizle birlikte daha karmaşık bir hal aldığını ve bazı alanlarda bunun iş birliğine dönüştüğünü de göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, bulgular Osmanlı ve kilise çalışmaları alanına önemli bir katkı sağlamayı ve önemli ancak yeterince araştırılmamış bir dönemin zengin kaynakları aracılığıyla kapsamlı bir şekilde anlaşılmasını vaat etmektedir.This thesis examines the nature of the financial activities of the Greek Orthodox Church vis-à-vis Ottoman State during the 17th century that has often been neglected by the historians due to the lack of archival sources. It proposes to overcome these challenges by systematically scanning two important archival collections, namely the Atik Şikâyet Defters and Mühimme Defters, which contain registers covering both ecclesiastical and non-ecclesiastical matters through an examination and analysis of the orders (hüküms) on financial aspects of the ecclestical matters between 1650 and 1690. This research will unveil the evolving dynamics between the church members and the Ottoman officers. Analysis of the orders in these registers with the religious, legal, financial and social dynamics of the petitioners sheds light on the financial changes of the period that is often characterized by almost exclusive crisis in the secondary literature. This thesis shows that the financial relations between them were more complex and that the crisis also included several cases of financial cooperation. Consequently, the findings promise to make a significant contribution to the field of Ottoman and ecclesiastical studies, providing a rich and comprehensive understanding of an important but under-explored period
Histopathology of Chironomids Exposed To Fly Ash and Microplastics as a New Biomarker of Ecotoxicological Assessment
No full textIn the last few decades, industrial pollution has gained extensive attention in terms of its effect on the aquatic environment. This imposes the need to develop sensitive biomarkers for early detection of pollutant toxicity in ecotoxicological assessment. The advantages of histopathological biomarkers are many, including quick reaction to the presence of contaminants, and the small number of individuals needed for efficient analysis. The present study analyzed the negative effect of lignite coal fly ash (LCFA) and microplastic particles (MPs) on Chironomus riparius, a suggested model organism by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This study aimed to perform histological analyses of larval tissues and target potential changes in treated groups that could serve as promising histopathological biomarkers of the contaminant's negative effects. Following that, other known sensitive sub-organismal biomarkers were analyzed and paired with the histopathological ones. Histological analysis of larvae showed a significantly decreased length of microvilli in midgut regions II and III in both treatments. Treatments with MPs affected oxidative stress parameters: thiobarbituric acid reactive sub-stances (TBARS), advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and hemoglobin levels, while LCFA significantly affected all tested sub-organismal biomarkers (DNA damage, levels of AOPP, SOD, and hemoglobin), except catalase (CAT) and TBARS. When observing histological slides, a significant shortage of brush border length in the posterior parts of the midgut was detected in all treatments. In the case of LCFA, the appearance of intensive vacuolization of digestive cells with inclusions resembling apoptotic bodies, in mentioned regions was also detected. This study demonstrated high sensitivity of brush border length to the MPs and LCFA exposure, complementary to other tested sub-organismal biomarkers. Revealing the great potential of this histopathological biomarker in ecotoxicological studies contributes to the international standard ecotoxi-cology assessment of emerging pollutants.European Commission [101072777]; Serbian Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation, Republic of Serbia [451-03-47/2023-01/200124, 451-03-47/2023-01/200007]; Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [101072777] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)This research was supported by the European Commission-HORI-ZON-MSCA-2021-DN-01, Grant no. 101072777, Integrated Cross-Sectoral Solutions to Micro-and Nanoplastic Pollution in Soil and Groundwater Ecosystems - Plastic Underground. This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation, Republic of Serbia, Grant no. 451-03-47/2023-01/200124 and Grant no. 451-03-47/2023-01/200007
Through Myths, Attitudes, or Norms? the Relationship Between Low Self-Control and Sexual Aggression
No full textThis study tested the direct and indirect effects of low self-control on sexual aggression and violence, mediated through rape myth acceptance, date rape attitudes, and promiscuous sexual norms among college-aged men. Self-report data were collected from 369 male college students attending a large university in the southeastern United States. The final model with all three mediators indicated significant mediated effects through date rape attitudes as well as promiscuous sexual norms on sexual aggression; it explained 16% (Cox ; Snell) and 23% (Nagelkerke) of the variance. Study findings support the importance of low self-control on sexual aggression among male college students
Factors Affecting Operative Morbidity and Long-Term Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Presacral Tumours: a Multicentric Cohort Study From the Turkish Collaborative Group for Quality Improvement in Colorectal and Pelvic Surgery
No full textArticle; Early AccessAim Data regarding the operative management of presacral tumours present various dilemmas due to their rarity and heterogeneous nature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the management strategy, factors associated with operative morbidity and long-term postoperative outcomes in a large group of patients undergoing surgery for presacral tumours.Method This study was designed as a multicentre retrospective cohort study. Records of patients who underwent surgery for presacral tumours at 10 tertiary colorectal centres between 1996 and 2017 were evaluated.Results One hundred and twenty seven patients (44 men) with a mean age of 46 years and body mass index of 27 kg/m(2) were included. Fifty eight per cent of the patients had low sacral lesions (below S3). The operative approaches were transabdominal (17%), transsacral (65%) and abdominosacral (17%). The postoperative morbidity was 19%. Thirty per cent of the patients had a malignant tumour. Longer duration of symptoms (p = 0.001), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score (p = 0.01), abdominosacral operations (p = 0.0001) and presacral tumours located above S3 (p = 0.004) were associated with an increased risk of postoperative morbidity. Overall long-term postoperative recurrence and mortality were 6% and 5%, respectively, within a 3-year mean follow-up period in patients with presacral malignant tumours.Conclusion Reduced physical condition, omission of symptoms prior to surgery, combined resections and high sacral tumours are the risk factors associated with postoperative complications in patients undergoing surgery for presacral tumours. Meticulous planning of the operation and intensified perioperative care may improve the outcomes in high-risk patients
New Techniques for Jet Calibration With the Atlas Detector
No full textA determination of the jet energy scale is presented using proton-proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of root s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb(-1) collected using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed using the ATLAS particle-flow method that combines charged-particle tracks and topo-clusters formed from energy deposits in the calorimeter cells. The anti-kt jet algorithm with radius parameter R = 0.4 is used to define the jet. Novel jet energy scale calibration strategies developed for the LHC Run 2 are reported that lay the foundation for the jet calibration in Run 3. Jets are calibrated with a series of simulation-based corrections, including state-of-the-art techniques in jet calibration such as machine learning methods and novel in situ calibrations to achieve better performance than the baseline calibration derived using up to 81 fb(-1) of Run 2 data. The performance of these new techniques is then examined in the in situ measurements by exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object. The b-quark jet energy scale using particle flow jets is measured for the first time with around 1% precision using gamma+jet events.CERN; ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW; FWF, Austria; ANAS; CNPq; FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC; CFI, Canada; NSFC, China; MEYS CR, Czech Republic; DNRF; DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS; CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; BMBF; MPG, Germany; RGC and Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT; JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MEiN, Poland; FCT, Portugal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS; MIZS, Slovenia; MICINN, Spain; Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; DOE; NSF, United States of America; BCKDF; CANARIE; CRC, Canada [PRIMUS 21/SCI/017, UNCE SCI/013]; Czech Republic; ERC; ERDF; Marie Skodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d'Avenir Labex, Investissements d'Avenir Idex; ANR, France; DFG; AvH Foundation, Germany - EU-ESF; Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF; NCN; La Caixa Banking Foundation; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya; PROMETEO; Generalitat Valenciana, Spain; Goran Gustafssons Stiftelse, Sweden; Royal Society; Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom; NDGF (Denmark, Norway, Sweden); KIT/GridKA (Germany); INFN-CNAF (Italy); NL-T1 (Netherlands), PIC (Spain); ASGC (Taiwan); BNL (USA)We thank CERN for the very successful operation of the LHC, as well as the support staff from our institutions without whom ATLAS could not be operated efficiently. We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Armenia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azerbaijan; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; ANID, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; Minciencias, Colombia; MEYS CR, Czech Republic; DNRF and DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS and CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, HGF and MPG, Germany; GSRI, Greece; RGC and Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Israel; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MEiN, Poland; FCT, Portugal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZS, Slovenia; DSI/NRF, South Africa; MICINN, Spain; SRC and Wallenberg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TENMAK, Turkiye; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, individual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, CANARIE, Compute Canada and CRC, Canada; PRIMUS 21/SCI/017 and UNCE SCI/013, Czech Republic; COST, ERC, ERDF, Horizon 2020 and Marie Skodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d'Avenir Labex, Investissements d'Avenir Idex and ANR, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia programmes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF and MINERVA, Israel; Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2014-2021, Norway; NCN and NAWA, Poland; La Caixa Banking Foundation, CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya and PROMETEO and GenT Programmes Generalitat Valenciana, Spain; Goran Gustafssons Stiftelse, Sweden; The Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom. The crucial computing support from all WLCG partners is acknowledged gratefully, in particular from CERN, the ATLAS Tier-1 facilities at TRIUMF (Canada), NDGF (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), CC-IN2P3 (France), KIT/GridKA (Germany), INFN-CNAF (Italy), NL-T1 (Netherlands), PIC (Spain), ASGC (Taiwan), RAL (UK) and BNL (USA), the Tier-2 facilities worldwide and large non-WLCG resource providers. Major contributors of computing resources are listed in Ref. [69]
Forecast Combination Approach With Meta-Fuzzy Functions for Forecasting the Number of Immigrants Within the Maritime Line Security Project in Turkey
No full textIn this study, forecasting the number of immigrants on the Turkey's maritime line for use in a national security project carried out by Turkish Government within the scope of fight against uncontrolled immigration is discussed for the first time. Handling with the immigration problem is one of the biggest concerns of Turkey as unsupervised immigration can adversely affect the demographic and economic structure of the country. Precautions are needed as the short-, medium- and long-term impacts of undetected immigrants on the country's ecosystem are unpredictable, but due to the uncertainties inherent in immigration, the cost of using government resources such as patrol vehicles to capture undocumented immigrants can be extremely high. In order to both minimize the expenditure problem and keep immigration under control by providing a proper scan, forecasting the number of immigrants on the maritime line route is seen as an important problem and studied by probabilistic and non-probabilistic models. Since the data for 2020 and 2021 could not be attained yet due to COVID-19, in order to obtain forecasts and compare actual observations for 2019, which is the primarily focus of the research in this study, the dataset of interest on the number of daily immigrants between years 2016 and 2019 is obtained from Turkish Coast Guard Command within Ministry of Interior of Republic of Turkey. To obtain the most accurate forecasts, seven distinguished forecasting methods, from simple to complex, are implemented. Then, the forecast combination approach with meta-fuzzy functions which combines all methods is proposed. Consequently, the forecasting results are acquired and evaluated by using R. The evaluation of the results is made by using widely considered measurement accuracy metric root mean square error. According to the final assessments, the proposed approach gives more accurate forecasting results for the expected number of immigrants on the Turkey's maritime line and these results become an input to the national security project.Ministry of Interior of Republic of Turkey and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK)I would like to thank to Turkish Coast Guard Command within Ministry of Interior of Republic of Turkey and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for their support