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Adaptation to extreme climate events at a regional scale
Full text linkA significant increase of the frequency, the intensity and the duration of extreme climate events in Switzerland induces the need to find a strategy to deal with the damages they cause. For more than two decades, mitigation has been the main objective of climate policy. However, due to already high atmospheric carbon concentrations and the inertia of the climate system, climate change is unavoidable to some degree, even if today’s emissions were almost completely cut back. Along with the high uncertainty concerning future climate change policies, this fact has focused attention towards adaptation strategies. The increased interest in efficient and effective adaptation strategies motivates the three aims of this thesis: (1) to better understand the economic impacts of extreme climate events in Europe and especially Switzerland; (2) to develop policy recommendations for financially funding adaptation measures; and (3) to analyze the drivers of both.
In chapter 2, co-authored with Stefan Boes, we address the projected increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in Europe over the coming years. We estimate a non-market damage function for heat waves using climate and mortality data for 27 European countries from 1960 to 2009. We translate heat wave caused fatalities into monetary units using the value of statistical life approach. Since non-market damages are positive only when a heat wave occurs, we specify an exponential hurdle model that separates the modelling of zero damages from the conditional-on-positives part. Our results indicate that the population density and age ratio are positively associated with non-market damages, whereas the climate variables, GDP and the degree of urbanisation are insignificant in the conditional damage function.
Chapter 3 takes a computable general equilibrium approach to analyze direct and indirect effects of heat waves in Switzerland as well as strategies to adapt to them. It aims to answer two main research questions: (1) What is the order of magnitude of general equilibrium impacts of a 2003-like heat wave on the Swiss economy? (2) If adaptation to heat waves is a public good, what are the diverse economic effects of policies for financially funding optimal adaptation to heat waves? We develop a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model which zooms into one single period of a standard Auerbach-Kotlikoff model. While we observe private and instantaneous adaptation in reaction to price changes, we explicitly model adaptation as a public good with financial funding realized through taxing either labor, capital, consumption or inheritance. Our approach has three main advantages: first, as it accounts for secondary effects, we are able to differentiate between welfare losses and damage in the output. Secondly, it makes it possible to do a regionally differentiated analysis without requiring regional input-output tables. Thirdly, it enables us to compare different strategies to fund the provision of the public good adaptation.
We are able to show that heat waves impact cohorts utility in an unadapted economy in substantially different ways. While young and less vulnerable cohorts profit (in welfare terms) from heat waves, vulnerable but surviving cohorts’ welfare decreases substantially. Thus, without adaptation, vulnerable cohorts are worse off and might have fewer possibilities to invest in private adaptation. These results support the findings of chapter 2, where we see that adaptation measures should mainly target the vulnerable groups of the population.
In chapter 4, co-authored with Gunter Stephan, we address the problem of an increase in the frequency, intensity and the duration of water-related extreme events in Switzerland. We aim (1) to gain a better understanding of the direct and indirect economic impacts of floods, (2) to analyze the issue of efficient flood adaption as well as the issue of financing adaptation in a federalist system, where local and national governmental authorities interplay in the provision of local public good adaptation. Our numerical thought experiments are based on a dynamic, spatial differentiated Ramsey type Computable General Equilibrium Model. Regions are determined by exposure and vulnerability to floods and are not identical with territorial units. Our results indicate: (1) general equilibrium effects caused by flood damages in vulnerable regions lead in regions of low vulnerability also to considerable welfare and GDP losses. (2) Providing local public good adaptation can, at low economic costs, significantly reduce negative impacts on welfare, GDP as well as the allocation of resources between regions and sectors. (3) Funding adaptation by imposing a regional land tax should be preferred to a national output tax or a combination of both with transfers from national to regional governments
Beware of the mad hatter. Mental illness stigma and healthcare utilisation for mental problems
Full text linkMental disorders cause high individual and societal costs and burden. Although they are
treatable and potentially preventable, healthcare utilisation is often delayed or completely
absent. Important barriers of healthcare utilisation are mental illness related stigmatising
attitudes. Stigma is not a unitary concept but covers several aspects whose single
contributions to delay or absence of healthcare utilisation are so far unclear. The first aim
of this PhD thesis was to examine associations between different aspects of stigma and
healthcare utilisation in a meta-analysis, providing more robust and aggregated evidence to
the growing body of literature in this field. Stigmatising attitudes are not independent of
each other and are influence by other factors, an important one being knowledge about
signs and treatment of mental disorders, i.e. mental health literacy (MHL). In particular
persons’ causal or etiological explanations for a mental illness were associated with
stigmatising attitudes before. The second aim of this PhD thesis was to examine
associations between persons’ causal explanations for mental disorders and stigma, and
between stigma and healthcare utilisation in the general population. Using structural
equation modelling and a comprehensive set of variables in order to elucidate complex
relations between the latent constructs, makes this work stand out from majority of
previous research. The main findings of this PhD will be discussed in the light of earlier
studies and social psychological research and theories. Furthermore, suggestions for future
studies and for campaigns promoting healthcare utilisation via improving MHL and
stigmatising attitudes will be derived
Der Zusammenhang zwischen Spatial-Suppression, Mental-Speed und psychometrischer Intelligenz
Full text linkSpatial-Suppression beschreibt das Phänomen, dass die Bewegung eines visuellen Stimulus mit zunehmender Stimulusgrösse schwieriger zu erkennen ist. Gemäss Melnick, Harrison, Park, Bennetto und Tadin (2013) steht Spatial-Suppression in starkem positiven Zusammenhang mit psychometrischer Intelligenz (r = .64 und .71). Sie konnten zeigen, dass intelligentere Personen die Bewegung von kleinen Stimuli schneller wahrnehmen (einen höheren Mental-Speed aufweisen) und die Bewegung von grossen Stimuli langsamer wahrnehmen (stärker unterdrücken) als weniger intelligente Personen. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, zu prüfen, ob sich die Befunde von Melnick et al. mit einer grossen Stichprobe (N = 177) bestätigen lassen und inwiefern Spatial-Suppression eine neuartige Erklärungsmöglichkeit für Intelligenzunterschiede liefert, welche nicht bereits der Mental-Speed-Ansatz bietet. Während die Analysen auf manifester Ebene die Resultate von Melnick et al. nicht bestätigen konnten (r = .00), zeigte sich auf latenter Ebene ein schwacher bis mittlerer negativer Effekt zwischen der Spatial-Suppression-Aufgabe und psychometrischer Intelligenz (β = -.23). Weiterführende Analysen haben darauf hingedeutet, dass nicht wie von Melnick et al. vermutet das Ausmass an Spatial-Suppression mit psychometrischer Intelligenz zusammenhing, sondern die grundlegende Geschwindigkeit, mit der bewegte Stimuli wahrgenommen werden. Diese grundlegende Geschwindigkeit hing dabei nicht mit Mental-Speed zusammen und konnte einen eigenständigen Varianzanteil in psychometrischer Intelligenz erklären. Die vorliegenden Resultate stehen im Gegensatz zu den Annahmen und Ergebnissen von Melnick et al., weshalb zukünftige Untersuchungen zeigen müssen, ob der Spatial-Suppression-Ansatz zur Erklärung individueller Intelligenzunterschiede geeignet ist oder nicht
Einfluss des Einschleifens auf die Oberflächenrauheit von CAD/CAM-Lithiumdisilikatkeramik Kronen
Full text linkInfective endocarditis
Full text linkThe term ‘predisposing heart condition’ is used as an indication of antimicrobial prophylaxis to prevent infective endocarditis (IE) and as a criterion for diagnosing IE according to the modified Duke criteria. Whereas the use of the term for antimicrobial prophylaxis is well defined, the criterion for diagnosing IE is not.
The general objective of this thesis is to narrow the definition of a predisposing heart condition in ‘native’ valves for the diagnosis of IE. Therefore, we reviewed the literature and the evidence about specific heart conditions reported to be a risk factor for IE. In parallel, we reviewed the imaging technique available at the time these studies were published and compared the results with imaging from today’s perspectives and current definitions of a specific heart condition (i.e. valvular disease). Finally, we evaluated the knowledge and opinion of clinicians about the term predisposing heart condition.
Our literature review included 207 studies, the vast majority of which were descriptive. Only a few studies investigated valve pathology as a risk factor for IE via analytical statistics. In addition, three-quarters of all included studies involved patients who presented with IE prior to the publication of the modified Duke criteria.
Studies focussing on mitral valve prolapse (MVP, 116 publications), prior IE (96 publications), and bicuspid aortic valve (BAV, 78 publications) provided the most data. The odds ratio of developing IE for a patient who had previously experienced an episode of it was approximately 2.5. The mean proportion of patients with IE plus a history of previous IE was 8.3% (median 7.1%, interquartile range [IQR] 4.9%–10.2%). One study associated BAV with a higher risk of IE (hazard ratio 6.3). In 77 descriptive studies, a median of approximately 6% of patients with IE had BAV as an underlying condition. Our literature review on the evolution of imaging methods indicated, however, a considerable influence of medical progress on the diagnosis of MVP. Six analytical studies and 90 of the 110 descriptive studies included patients prior to the publication of the modified Duke criteria in 2000. For many years, MVP was diagnosed via auscultation only, and echocardiographic means for diagnosis were used in the late 90s. Therefore, both the risk of developing IE and the proportion of patients with IE and MVP as a predisposing factor could not be quantified.
The literature review on mitral valve stenosis (MS, 23 publications) and pathologies involving the pulmonary valve (18 publications) and the tricuspid valve (nine publications) provided little data. These publications had inconsistent results and low proportions of patients with IE had these valve pathologies.
The significance of aortic valve stenosis (AS, 46 publications), mitral valve insufficiency (MI, 41 publications), and aortic valve insufficiency (AI, 39 publications) as a predisposing heart condition
was difficult to assess from today’s perspective because of the progress made in imaging methods; of these studies, 75.6%, 78.6%, and 79.5%, respectively, included patients prior to the publication of the modified Duke criteria in the year 2000. In addition, except for AS (1989), the categorisation of mild, moderate, and severe valve pathology was established in 1998 or 2006. The publications had considerable heterogeneity with a wide distribution of results. An observational study indicated that with an increased incidence of AS, the risk of developing IE rises. Only one of these 126 publications for these three valve pathologies used analytical statistics. Congenital AS was associated with a higher risk of IE (hazard ratio of 4.9).
The results from the literature review parallel those from a survey that we performed to evaluate the knowledge and opinion of clinicians on the term predisposing heart condition. The survey indicated that there is significant uncertainty among clinicians regarding what is considered to be a Duke minor criterion for a predisposing heart condition in a native valve. The results from 318 questionnaires with responses from specialists in the fields of internal medicine, infectious diseases, and cardiology provided a wide range of answers. Their answers also showed that what the participants believed to be a current Duke minor criterion and what they thought should be a minor criterion had a median accordance of 33%.
Taken together, these findings demonstrate that there is uncertainty about what is considered a predisposing heart condition for the diagnosis of IE. This uncertainty is demonstrated in our extensive literature review and reflected in our survey among clinicians. The vast majority of studies used only descriptive statistics and included patients prior to the publication of the modified Duke criteria (2000). The tremendous progress in imaging methods and categorisation of valve pathologies since then makes it difficult to interpret the literature review analyses from today’s perspective. Nonetheless, studies on MVP, a prior episode of IE, and BAV had the highest representation in the literature. Among these three pathologies, MVP is most likely to be affected by the evolution of imaging methods, and therefore its risk cannot be quantified. Sensitivity analyses and mathematical models performed on the data obtained in this systematic review may help to further narrow the definition of a predisposing heart condition
Methoden zur Abschätzung extremer Hochwasser
Full text linkAbschätzungen für extreme Hochwasser quantifizieren je nach Definition äusserst seltene Ereignisse (HQ10 000), oder gar das vermutete maximal mögliche Hochwasser (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF). Das Verständnis der in diesem Fall ablaufenden Prozesse ist aufgrund fehlender Referenzereignisse stark eingeschränkt, und für vorgenommene Schätzungen gibt es keine direkten Validierungsmöglichkeiten. Die Abschätzung extremer Hochwasser stellt deshalb eine grosse Herausforderung dar, und die dabei angewandten Methoden bedürfen einer ständigen Weiterentwicklung und Evaluation. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden zwei Teilaspekte der PMF-Hochwasserabschätzung vertieft behandelt: Die räumlich-zeitliche Verteilung eines Extremniederschlages, und die Herleitung eines PMF-Hochwassers aus dem Extremniederschlag mittels Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modellierung.
Der ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit beinhaltet ein neues Verfahren zur räumlich-zeitlichen Verteilung des vermuteten maximal möglichen Niederschlages (Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP). Der vorgestellte Monte-Carlo-Ansatz ermöglicht die Herleitung einer Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Niederschlagsverteilungen unter Berücksichtigung physikalischer Plausibilitätskriterien, und schliesslich die Identifikation der folgenreichsten, sprich hochwassermaximierenden räumlich-zeitlichen Verteilungen. Die Resultate zeigen auf, dass sich ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz zur Identifikation von worst-case-Szenarien eignet. Zusätzlich erlaubt die Anwendung des Verfahres eine erste grobe Abschätzung des PMF-Hochwassers.
In einem zweiten Teil wird aus den generierten Niederschlagsszenarien ein PMF-Hochwasser abgeschätzt. Dabei kommen zwei verschiedene Modellierungsansätze zur Anwendung: Ein deterministisches hydrologisches Modell und ein gekoppeltes hydrologisch-hydraulisches Modell. Die Resultate belegen, dass eine Kopplung von hydrologischen und hydraulischen Modellen im Vergleich zur herkömmlichen hydrologischen Modellierung eine dämpfende Wirkung auf die modellierte PMF-Schätzung hat. Für die Abschätzung von Hochwasserereignissen, welche die Bemessungsgrössen von Schutzbauten entlang des Gerinnes womöglich deutlich übertreffen, bringt die damit einhergehende Berücksichtigung grossflächiger Überflutungs- und Retentionsräume einen deutlichen Mehrwert.
In den letzten Jahren sind im wissenschaftlichen wie auch im privatwirtschaftlichen Umfeld zahlreiche PMF-Abschätzungen vorgenommen worden. Die gewählten Methoden zur räumlich-zeitlichen Repräsentierung des PMP-Niederschlages und zur anschliessenden Modellierung sind dabei sehr unterschiedlich. Die Wahl der Methoden kann jedoch einen relativ grossen Einfluss auf die resultierende Abschätzung haben. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit werden verschiedene Methoden zur räumlich-zeitlichen Niederschlagsverteilung und verschiedene Modellierungsansätze hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung für die Abschätzung des PMF-Hochwassers systematisch getestet. Die Resultate zeigen auf, dass die Wahl der Methode zur räumlich-zeitlichen Niederschlagsverteilung und die Wahl des Modellierungsansatzes aufeinander abgestimmt sein müssen, um eine markante Über- oder Unterschätzung des PMF-Hochwassers zu vermeiden
On the Plumbing Structure of Fibre Surfaces
Full text linkThis thesis is situated in the mathematical field of low-dimensional topology and is concerned with a particular class of knots and links known as fibred links. A link L in the three-sphere is fibred if its complement admits a fibration over the circle with fibres the interiors of Seifert surfaces for L. These surfaces, called fibre surfaces, are our main objects of study. For example, all torus links and all positive braid links are fibred. The simplest example of a fibred link is the Hopf link; its fibre surface is an annular band with a full twist. Using a geometric operation called plumbing, Hopf bands can be glued together so as to form more complicated fibre surfaces. The reverse operation, deplumbing, consists in removing a Hopf band from a fibre surface. It amounts to cutting that fibre surface along a proper arc.
By a theorem of Giroux and Goodman's, every fibre surface has a plumbing structure: it can be obtained from the standard disk by plumbing and deplumbing some number of Hopf bands. Our main results concern the (non-)uniqueness of the plumbing structure of a given fibre surface. Specifically, we study the cases of torus links and positive arborescent Hopf plumbings. Among these, we characterise the links arising from simple plane curve singularities by the finiteness of proper arcs that correspond to deplumbing a Hopf band
A Grammar of Garifuna
Full text linkThis dissertation is a grammatical description of Garifuna, and is the first booklength treatment of the entire grammatical system of this language. The language is spoken in Central America and belongs to the Arawak language family, which is the largest in South America. The book consists of 15 chapters, with Chapter 1 being an introduction to the study, the language and its speakers, fieldwork carried out by the author and the database upon which the analyses are based. The book is structured in a similar way to most grammatical descriptions, starting with phonology (Chapter 2), moving on to morphology (chapters 3-10), and lastly syntax (Chapters 11-14) with Chapter 15 treating the special issue of genderlects. There is also an appendix containing three texts transcribed, glossed and translated.
The grammar makes important constributions in at least two ways: Garifuna is an endangered language, and its description and documentation will help preserve knowledge of the language for the future benefit of speakers and their descendants, as well as language scholars. Secondly, Garifuna displays a number of linguistic features which are cross-linguistically rare, and will be of interests to language typologists, and to linguists more generally, including: gendered speech (or genderlects), possessive classifiers encoding the relationship between possessor and the possessed, verb forms underspecified for tense and aspect accounting for the majority of verb tokens, suppletive verb forms (high frequency items) based on borrowed verbs
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