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The developing flood rich period:Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place-based socio-ecological solutions?
Get PDFFlood-related policies for England are reviewed, updating needs in the light of recent flood-rich decades and in recognition of future climate trends. This review updates one we published in 2021—a significant year for extreme floods in Europe that were part of a continuing trend; governments now require fast-track adaptation and resilience policies. Currently, the event signals that increasing spatial and temporal variability of impacts are insufficiently incorporated in hazard/risk assessments. We advocate a transformative policy change towards place-based strategies, based on the fast-emerging evidence from three sciences: hydroclimatology, hydrology and hydromorphology. It is vital that policy actions recognise factors such as atmospheric rivers, surface water flooding, and the role of eroded and transported sediments in localised hazards and risks. Located vulnerabilities require local strategies. Attribution of extreme events to climate change, and the recognition and specification of genuinely vulnerable sites, need further refinement and extension into public decision making. Risk assessment needs reform, both from science but also for institutions and individuals, with accompanying reform of flood risk management expenditure. Data analysis of rainfall and river flows need more disciplined clarity; standard sets are needed together with their variable spatial/temporal application. We further recognise sediment hazards (and other entrained debris spread in flood flows) as new and important components for the located risk of present and emerging ‘hot spots’.</p
Manipulating Friends:Mossad's Covert Operations and Disinformation in Europe
Get PDFAlongside targeted killing operations, intelligence agencies often organize disinformation campaigns to cast doubts about who is behind the murders. While there is a large body of literature that researches intelligence agencies’ efforts to influence the views of an enemy (such as propaganda or disinformation campaigns), this article looks at it differently: how does a disinformation campaign look like to influence the views of friendly counties or allies? The article focuses on specific reports sent by Mossad to European intelligence agencies during the early 1970s when Mossad was running a targeted assassination campaign in Europe. The reports that Mossad shared with its European partners provided alternative ways of interpreting Mossad assassinations. The article identifies two purposes of these cables beyond exchanging information: they allowed Mossad to feed disinformation to European agencies to deflect responsibility for the killings away from Israel. Later, they allowed European governments to plausibly deny knowledge of Israeli responsibility for Palestinian deaths and to continue to share intelligence with Mossad about Palestinian terrorist groups. This article advances current understandings of how states try to manipulate other states’ behaviour, and how friendly relations can be abused to foster one's own interests.</p
Exploring Travellee Agency:Local Perceptions and Uses of a Colonial Propaganda Mission in 1920s Indochina
Get PDFTravel studies heavily relies on the travelogue as source. This essay endeavours to decentre the travelogue and the traveller through a case study of travellees’ responses. When a group of French female students were sent on a colonial propaganda trip to Indochina in 1924, the “travellees” (those who are “travelled upon”) employed several strategies to exert agency. In direct encounters and newspaper articles, different Vietnamese groups in France and in Indochina emphasised their “travellee identity” to address Indochinese representation in France, call attention to French attitudes towards the colonised, the corruption of colonial elites, and to challenge the epistemological basis of European colonisation
Machine Learning-Based Stacking Ensemble Model for Prediction of Heart Disease with Explainable AI and K-Fold Cross-Validation:A Symmetric Approach
Get PDFOne of the most complex and prevalent diseases is heart disease (HD). It is among the main causes of death around the globe. With changes in lifestyles and the environment, its prevalence is rising rapidly. The prediction of the disease in its early stages is crucial, as delays in diagnosis can cause serious complications and even death. Machine learning (ML) can be effective in this regard. Many researchers have used different techniques for the efficient detection of the disease and to overcome the drawbacks of existing models. Several ensemble models have also been applied. We proposed a stacking ensemble model named NCDG, which uses Naive Bayes, Categorical Boosting, and Decision Tree as base learners, with Gradient Boosting serving as the meta-learner classifier. We performed preprocessing using a factorization method to convert string columns into integers. We employ the Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique (SMOTE) and BorderLineSMOTE balancing techniques to address the issue of data class imbalance. Additionally, we implemented hard and soft voting using voting classifier and compared the results with the proposed stacking model. For the Artificial Intelligence-based eXplainability of our proposed NCDG model, we use the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique. The outcomes show that our suggested stacking model, NCDG, performs better than the benchmark existing techniques. The experimental results of our proposed stacking model achieved the highest accuracy, F1-Score, precision and recall of 0.91, 0.91, 0.91 and 0.91, respectively, and an execution time of 653 s. Moreover, we have also utilized K-Fold Cross-Validation method to validate our predicted results. It is worth mentioning that our prediction results and their validation strongly coincide with each other which proves our approach to be symmetric
An ‘obligation which we are not entitled to get rid of’:Competing Notions of Empire and the British Opposition to the Colonial Appeasement of Germany
Get PDFThe Treaty of Versailles saw the defeated Germany’s colonies in Africa and the Pacific redistributed as ‘mandates’ of the League of Nations amongst the victors. Henceforth, the traditional notion of colonialism as an inherently exploitative endeavour would be substituted in these mandates by ‘trusteeship’. The British Empire was at its largest extent, but also saw the establishment of formal, institutional oversight of its treatment of those now under its control. The rise of Hitler in 1933 changed this entirely, with British ministers famously going to great lengths to reach a lasting settlement with Nazi Germany. Inevitably, they reached towards these mandates as a cheap way of easing Germany’s way into a permanent European peace settlement. Rooted in a fundamental misunderstanding of the Nazi outlook, this attempt at colonial appeasement was met by vociferous opposition in among British imperialist Conservative MPs. By 1939, with the launch of the Colonial League, their numbers counted members of all parties, for a variety of reasons, as well as opposition groups in the colonies themselves. Largely understudied, a full analysis of this movement in Britain and the African colonies offers a fresh perspective on the changing rhetoric and conception of empire in the inter-war period.</p
Remaining in rural areas:Towards a rural entrepreneur's analysis framework
Get PDFThis research employs an empirical approach to understand aspects defining why young people remain in their rural territories. Utilising a rural region of Caldas, Colombia as a case study and based on an agricultural education program for entrepreneurship, information from 368 rural young people was obtained. The study explored a conceptual model shaped by four dimensions and 34 variables. Using a Probit method, we identify significant variables regarding permanence in rural areas. We identify 11 key variables that determine the categories of socio-demographic profile, profile of entrepreneur characteristics, and category of motivations and territory. Our study contributes to literature on rural entrepreneurship from an empirical approach. Additionally, we propose a new analytical framework to address major problems in agriculture and rural territories, particularly in developing countries, such as Latin America.</p
Validation of two swabbing methods to sample DNA for genotyping Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)
No full textIn fisheries, genetic based assignment of individuals to their population of origin can benefit efforts aimed at monitoring and managing stocks. Assignment combined with knowledge of the migration history of individuals can provide powerful insights into mechanisms of genetic mixing, for which refined sampling methods are required to minimise any impacts. In this study we tested two minimally invasive swabbing techniques for sampling DNA when attaching electronic satellite tags to Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) for migration studies. First, DNA was sampled by skin swabbing (hereafter skin swabs) individuals from which there were corresponding fin clip samples. Second, swabs were taken from the applicator poles used to attach electronic tags (hereafter pole swabs). Quantification of DNA from the different sources revealed decreasing yields moving from fin clips, to skin swabs, to pole swabs. The utility of the DNA obtained by both swabbing methods for individual genotyping was then assessed by sequencing of the mtDNA control region and genotyping of six microsatellite loci. In all cases successful genotyping was achieved. For mtDNA an 868 bp fragment was successfully amplified in all samples with 775 bp aligned across individuals revealing 26 haplotypes (overall haplotype diversity = 0.987). All six microsatellites were successfully amplified including a largest allele size of 291 bp. mtDNA and microsatellite genotypes for the skin swabs matched with the corresponding fin clip samples. Although no tissue replicates were available for the pole swab samples the genotypes obtained were unambiguous, consistent across repeated PCRs, and reported no evidence of PCR issues such as large allele drop out. Overall, the genetic data suggested high variability among individuals sampled, comparable to levels of genetic diversity seen within the species' Atlantic range. The study demonstrates that non-invasive sampling can be used to obtain DNA for population assignment studies and that valuable material can be sampled from tagging equipment.</p
The effect of light exposure on the thermoluminescence signal from calcitic opercula
No full textRecent work has suggested that the thermoluminescence (TL) signal of opercula from the gastropod Bithynia tentaculata can be used to date the formation of calcite by the organism when it was alive. The two TL peaks of interest for dating are located at ∼250 °C (Peak 2) and ∼350 °C (Peak 3) when measured at a heating rate of 0.5 °C.s−1. This paper assesses whether these peaks are altered by exposure to visible light, as this is important for how samples are collected in the field, and handled in the laboratory prior to measurement. Neither peak shows systematic change for exposures in a solar simulator of less than 24 h in duration. For longer exposures in the solar simulator the intensity of Peak 2 increases, possibly due to phototransfer. In contrast, the TL signal from Peak 3 is not affected by light exposure in the solar simulator for periods of up to 60 h, or by exposure to natural daylight with the UV-component removed for periods of up to ∼26 d. One experiment which exposed an operculum to natural daylight for ∼5.5 months led to a reduction in the TL signal from Peak 3 by 16 %, but such long exposures are unlikely in sampling and sample preparation. The lack of impact of daylight exposure on Peak 3 indicates that opercula-bearing samples can be collected and processed in normal daylight conditions, and that museum specimens are suitable for TL dating provided an associated sediment sample is available for dose rate calculations. However, as a precaution it is still recommended that light exposure is minimised where possible
Hierarchical Neutral and Non-Neutral Spatial Genetic Structuring in the European Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) Revealed by Genomic Analysis:Implications for Management
Get PDFThe European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) sustains some of the most important East Atlantic fisheries and is exhibiting pronounced phenotypic and distributional changes linked to environmental changes. The application of high-resolution genomic methods is recommended to provide insights into population demographics and patterns of ecological and evolutionary diversification. This study performed genome wide SNP analysis of samples collected across understudied NE Atlantic waters as well as geographical outgroup samples from Morocco and the Western Mediterranean. The data revealed pronounced differentiation of three regional groups (NE Atlantic, Morocco, and Western Mediterranean) that can be linked to glacial vicariance and contemporary dispersal limitations. Structuring was also apparent at outlier loci adding to evidence that genome architecture and non-neutral processes are influencing sardine populations at various spatial scales. The highly resolved Morocco group may be a previously undescribed and localized lineage and confirms complex stock structure along the North African coast. Among the NE Atlantic samples, genome wide patterns confirm restricted gene flow between Biscay and North Sea sardine with signatures of isolation by distance. FST, individual assignment, and introgression tail analyses of outlier loci revealed further structuring and identify a North Sea-Eastern Channel group distinct from a Bay of Biscay-Celtic Sea-Western Channel group. This pattern contradicts current management boundaries and indicates that increasing sardine numbers in the North Sea reflect an expansion of an eastern English Channel-North Sea fringe population. While this confirms the ability of the species' northern peripheral populations to expand in response to changing conditions, the genetically differentiated southern populations may differ in this regard. Overall, this study adds to a developing genetic framework for understanding sardine biocomplexity and provides resources for management
Rewetting alongside biochar and sulphate addition mitigates greenhouse gas emissions and retain carbon in degraded upland peatlands
Get PDFPeat soils store significant amounts of carbon (C) globally, and increased C sequestration into peatlands could play a role in offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As such, there is a need to find and assess optimal greenhouse gas removal (GGR) interventions to minimise GHG losses, protect current C stocks, and promote further C sequestration. This mesocosm study assessed the additional C storage potential of different C-rich substrates (Juncus straw or Juncus-derived biochar) and/or FeSO4 amendments, with a low water table (LW; −15 cm) and high-water table (HW; 0 cm) in intact soil columns (20 cm diam. x 25 cm deep) extracted from degraded upland peat. GHG fluxes, soluble nutrients, changes in microbial community structure and enzyme activity were measured over a one-year period to evaluate the net C storage and their overall GGR potential. HW reduced CO2 emissions by 28 % compared to LW, while CH4 emissions increased, ultimately contributing 61 % of the overall CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) GHG emissions in HW cores with no amendments. Organic amendments had a significant effect on CO2 and CH4 emissions with the highest cumulative emissions being from the Straw-HW (26.2 t CO2eq ha−1 yr−1) and the lowest cumulative emissions being from the Biochar + FeSO4+HW (7.9 t CO2eq ha−1 yr−1). Biochar + FeSO4+HW led to the strongest net gain in soil C, suppressing decomposition of the native peat-C as well as CH4 emissions. The application of FeSO4 significantly reduced CO2eq GHG emissions by preventing methanogenesis through alternative electron acceptors. The Biochar + HW treatment suppressed Ascomycota abundance by 22 %. The combination of a high-water level, biochar addition and availability of alternative electron acceptors (e.g., FeSO4) can increase net C accumulation and GGR via both abiotic and biotic mechanisms, including i) increased C input, ii) modulation of soil microbiome to reduce peat turnover; and iii) suppression of CH4 and N2O emissions.</p