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    Identifying fallers among ophthalmic patients using classification tree methodology

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    To develop and validate a tool aiming to support ophthalmologists in identifying, during routine ophthalmologic visits, patients at higher risk of falling in the following year.A group of 141 subjects (age: 73.2 ± 11.4 years), recruited at our Eye Clinic, underwent a baseline ophthalmic examination and a standardized questionnaire, including lifestyles, general health, social engagement and eyesight problems. Moreover, visual disability was assessed by the Activity of Daily Vision Scale (ADVS). The subjects were followed up for 12 months in order to record prospective falls. A subject who reported at least one fall within one year from the baseline assessment was considered as faller, otherwise as non-faller. Different tree-based algorithms (i.e., C4.5, AdaBoost and Random Forests) were used to develop automatic classifiers and their performances were evaluated by the cross-validation approach.Over the follow-up, 25 falls were referred by 13 patients. The logistic regression analysis showed the following variables as significant predictors of prospective falls: pseudophakia and use of prescribed eyeglasses as protective factors, recent worsening of visual acuity as risk factor. Random Forest ranked best corrected visual acuity, number of sleeping hours and job type as the most important features. Finally, AdaBoost enabled the identification of subjects at higher risk of falling in the following 12 months with a sensitivity rate of 69.2% and a specificity rate of 76.6%.The current study proposes a novel method, based on classification trees applied to self-reported factors and health information assessed by a standardized questionnaire during ophthalmological visits, to identify ophthalmic patients at higher risk of falling in the following 12 months. The findings of the current study pave the way to the validation of the proposed novel tool for fall risk screening on a larger cohort of patients with visual impairment referred to eye clinics

    Highly sensitive measurements of disease progression in rare disorders: Developing and validating a multimodal model of retinal degeneration in Stargardt disease

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    variants (> 900 identified to date) and modifying factors is virtually unique. It accounts for the vast phenotypic heterogeneity including variable rates of functional and structural progression, thereby potentially limiting the ability of phase I/II clinical trials to assess efficacy of novel therapies with few patients. To accommodate this problem, we developed and validated a sensitive and reliable composite clinical trial endpoint for disease progression based on structural measurements of retinal degeneration., 0.872). We subsequently ran a two-year trial simulation with the composite endpoint, which detected a 25% decrease in disease progression with 80% statistical power using only 14 patients.These results suggest that a multimodal endpoint, reflecting structural macular changes, provides a sensitive measurement of disease progression in Stargardt disease. It can be very useful in the evaluation of novel therapeutic modalities in rare disorders

    Mediterranean spotted fever in Spain, 1997-2014: Epidemiological situation based on hospitalization records

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    . In Spain, deficiencies in the official reporting result in misreporting of this disease. This study aims to describe the clinical and temporal-spatial characteristics of MSF hospitalizations between 1997 and 2014.We performed a retrospective descriptive study using the Hospitalization Minimum Data Set (CMBD). All CMBD’s hospital discharges with ICD-9 CM code 082.1 were analyzed. Hospitalization rates were calculated and clinical characteristics were described. Spatial distribution of cases and their temporal behavior were also assessed.A total of 4,735 hospitalizations with MSF diagnosis were recorded during the study period, out of which 62.2% were male, mean age of 48. Diabetes mellitus, alcohol dependence syndrome, and chronic liver disease occurred in 10.8%, 2.4% and 2.8% hospitalizations, respectively. The median annual hospitalization rate showed a decreasing trend from a maximum of 12.9 in 1997 to a minimum rate of 3.1 in 2014. Most admissions occurred during the summer, showing a significant annual seasonal behavior. Important regional differences were found.Although MSF hospitalization rates have decreased considerably, it remains a public health problem due to its severity and economic impact. Therefore, it would be desirable to improve its oversight and surveillance

    Urinary metabolomics reveals glycemic and coffee associated signatures of thyroid function in two population-based cohorts

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    Triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) as the main secretion products of the thyroid affect nearly every human tissue and are involved in a broad range of processes ranging from energy expenditure and lipid metabolism to glucose homeostasis. Metabolomics studies outside the focus of clinical manifest thyroid diseases are rare. The aim of the present investigation was to analyze the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of urinary metabolites with serum free T4 (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH).H-NMR spectroscopy. Linear or mixed linear models were used to detect associations between urine metabolites and thyroid function.Cross-sectional analyses revealed positive relations of alanine, trigonelline and lactic acid with FT4 and negative relations of dimethylamine, glucose, glycine and lactic acid with log(TSH). In longitudinal analyses, lower levels of alanine, dimethylamine, glycine, lactic acid and N,N-dimethylglycine were linked to a higher decline in FT4 levels over time, whereas higher trigonelline levels were related to a higher FT4 decline. Moreover, the risk of hypothyroidism was higher in subjects with high baseline trigonelline or low lactic acid, alanine or glycine values.The detected associations mainly emphasize the important role of thyroid hormones in glucose homeostasis. In addition, the predictive character of these metabolites might argue for a potential feedback of the metabolic state on thyroid function. Besides known metabolic consequences of TH, the link to the urine excretion of trigonelline, a marker of coffee consumption, represents a novel finding of this study and given the ubiquitous consumption of coffee requires further research

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