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    Modelling Anti-Ov16 IgG4 Antibody Prevalence as an Indicator for Evaluation and Decision Making in Onchocerciasis Elimination Programmes

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    -specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling.The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model.Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity).Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA

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    Predicting floods with Flickr tags

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    Excess of genomic defects in a woolly mammoth on Wrangel island

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    Intensive versus Guideline Blood Pressure and Lipid Lowering in Patients with Previous Stroke: Main Results from the Pilot ‘Prevention of Decline in Cognition after Stroke Trial’ (PODCAST) Randomised Controlled Trial

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    Stroke is associated with the development of cognitive impairment and dementia. We assessed the effect of intensive blood pressure (BP) and/or lipid lowering on cognitive outcomes in patients with recent stroke in a pilot trial.In a multicentre, partial-factorial trial, patients with recent stroke, absence of dementia, and systolic BP (SBP) 125–170 mmHg were assigned randomly to at least 6 months of intensive (target SBP <125 mmHg) or guideline (target SBP <140 mmHg) BP lowering. The subset of patients with ischaemic stroke and total cholesterol 3.0–8.0 mmol/l were also assigned randomly to intensive (target LDL-cholesterol <1.3 mmol/l) or guideline (target LDL-c <3.0 mmol/l) lipid lowering. The primary outcome was the Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R). p<0·01). The ACE-R score during treatment did not differ for either treatment comparison; mean difference for BP lowering -3.6 (95% CI -9.7 to 2.4), and lipid lowering 4.4 (95% CI -2.1 to 10.9). However, intensive lipid lowering therapy was significantly associated with improved scores for ACE-R at 6 months, trail making A, modified Rankin Scale and Euro-Qol Visual Analogue Scale. There was no difference in rates of dementia or serious adverse events for either comparison.In patients with recent stroke and normal cognition, intensive BP and lipid lowering were feasible and safe, but did not alter cognition over two years. The association between intensive lipid lowering and improved scores for some secondary outcomes suggests further trials are warranted

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