5357 research outputs found
Sort by
Optimising agronomic management of the pseudocereals buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum Moench.) and quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) for improved yield and nutritional quality
Get PDFPhD ThesisBuckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum Moench.) and quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) are
gluten-free pseudocereals which have shown increasing consumer demand in recent years. Both
crops can provide agronomic benefits to farmers but remain underutilised, particularly in the
UK, because of agroecological limitations and/or limited knowledge/research. The aim of this
study was therefore to identify genetic variation and optimise the agronomic management of
both crops for improved yield and nutritional quality. Field experiments were carried out over
3 seasons (2016-18) at Nafferton Farm in North-east England to evaluate the effects of sowing
date (mid-April vs early-May) and fertilisation (zinc and nitrogen source and rate) on the
performance of four buckwheat and three quinoa genotypes.
There is clear potential to grow buckwheat and quinoa in the UK where early-May sowing
combined with high nitrogen fertilisation rate (150 kg N/ha) are used. The average yields were
about 1 t/ha which was similar to the average global production. Both crops were characterised
by poor germination in all seasons irrespective of sowing date with an average of 58% across
both species in the field trials. The low temperatures in this cool temperate climate leads to an
extended life-cycle of 150 – 190 days, resulting in relatively late harvest with high seed losses.
Genotype × environment interactions indicated that Cebelica (buckwheat) and Atlas (quinoa)
may be suited to the UK agroecological conditions as they produced the highest yields with
relatively high grain quality in terms of protein and minerals. In general, buckwheat and quinoa
showed concentrations of Fe, Zn, total polyphenols and flavonoids approximately 2-3 times
higher than those published for the major cereals wheat, rice and maize. Therefore, despite
relatively low yields, there is the potential to develop a UK supply chain of buckwheat and
quinoa with relatively high grain quality. Both crops show clear potential especially for low
input and organic growers through wider genetic screening programmes, improvements in plant
breeding (with the development of more cold tolerant genotypes) and optimisation of
agronomic management and harvesting techniques.The Angolan Governmen
Anxiety in Children with Intellectual Disability: the Role of Intolerance of Uncertainty
Get PDFDClinPsych ThesisApproximately 2-3% of children worldwide are living with an Intellectual Disability (ID). Anxiety is prevalent in children with ID and can cause considerable distress for the child and wider family. Anxiety in children has been reported to have significant social and emotional impact and has a long-term effect, being predictive of mental health and economic status in adulthood. Despite this, the evidence base is limited with regard to psychological interventions for mental health difficulties in individuals with ID. More specifically, there is a clear gap in the literature pertaining to the evidence for the implementation of psychological interventions for alleviating anxiety in children with ID.
A systematic review was undertaken to evaluate the quality of literature on psychological
interventions for anxiety in children with ID. 17 papers were eligible for inclusion and reported on a range of interventions, including a behavioural approach for specific phobias, and CBT based interventions for generalised symptoms of anxiety. The evidence was highly variable in quality, and when aggregated, no intervention had sufficient empirical support to be considered current or promising evidence-based practice. Further research is therefore suggested in order to develop a strong evidence base from which clinicians can select effective interventions for this population. This research should additionally be clear and transparent in its conceptualisation, measurement and reporting of both anxiety and Intellectual Disability, in order to support the development of the field.
There is a robust body of evidence that the transdiagnostic construct of Intolerance of
Uncertainty (IU) plays a key role in a range of anxiety disorders in the typically developing population. Recent research suggests that IU may be particularly elevated in children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and that this may account for the increased difficulties with anxiety experienced by this population. IU has therefore been proposed as a potential target for intervention in managing anxiety in children with ASD, and interventions such as CUES (Coping with Uncertainty in Everyday Situations) have begun to be successfully implemented to this end. However, a large proportion of children with ASD have a co-occurring ID, and the role of IU in the understanding and management of anxiety in this population had not been explored to date.
An investigation was undertaken to address this gap. The study aimed to explore the
relationships between IU, anxiety and repetitive behaviours (RRBs) in children with ASD and ID, and consider whether CUES can be adapted so that it is suitable for this population. Within the study, parents/carers of children with ASD and/or ID completed measures of anxiety, IU and RRBs online. In this sample, IU was significantly higher in children with ASD and ID than children with ASD only, however there was no difference in anxiety levels between these groups. In children with ASD (both with and without ID), it was observed that IU significantly positively correlated with anxiety and RRBs, and that IU, but not ID-status, was a significant predictor of anxiety. The CUES parent group intervention was then adapted and implemented with parents of five children with ASD and co-occurring ID and was reported to be acceptable and helpful for parents in managing IU in their children. Therefore, findings suggest that IU plays a role in anxiety in children with ASD and ID and may be an appropriate target for intervention for this group
Sodium silicate stabilization of collapsible clayey calcareous soils
Get PDFPh. D. ThesisCollapsible soils have caused infrastructural damages resulting in several economic losses and loss of lives in certain cases. The prerequisite for collapse occurring is an open metastable structure; capable of developing in any soil type given the right placement or aging conditions. Natural and anthropogenic (engineered & non-engineered) collapsible soils exist in many regions of the world. In their unsaturated state, these soils exhibit high enough strength (provided by inter-particle bonds of either suction, clay, calcium carbonate or other salts) but upon wetting and/or loading they undergo repacking due to bond softening/weakening. Despite the large body of research in this subject, there is still poor understanding of the process of softening/weakening and the collapse mechanism of certain bond elements, particularly CaCO3, considering its low solubility in water. Because CaCO3 is common in natural soils, reaching 1-30 % contents in the most commonly known natural collapsible soil (loess), understanding its influence on the collapse phenomenon is crucial for geotechnical characterization of soils in order to design safe and economic earthworks with their long-term serviceability also in focus.
In this thesis, an innovative method of simulating an open structure supported by calcite and/or clay bonding has been developed to study mainly the effect of calcite and clay content on the collapse potential (CP) and rate of collapse of calcareous silty-clay soils analogous to marls. A relationship between unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and CP was also examined. Collapsibility and UCS were examined using single and double oedometer techniques and unconfined compressive test (UCT), respectively. Additionally, the potential for a single-step application of sodium silicate solution (silicatization) to improve the soils was investigated.
Silicatization was carried out by both impregnation of pre-formed specimens and mixing & kneading prior to specimen formation. Treated oedometer specimens were simply heat-cured (45 – 50 0C) for 24 hours whereas, some UCT specimens were heat-cured, and others cured under room ambience for 7, 14, and 28 day to assess the effect of curing method on UCS.
CP was estimated by the percentage decrease in height of an oedometer specimen due to wetting. Different wetting fluids (distilled water and a 5% acid solution (AS)) were used in order to investigate the influence of pore fluid pH on CP. Several wetting stresses were adopted but 300 kPa (roughly equivalent to the self-weight of a 15m high embankment) was the main stress studied.
The research found that UCS and stiffness increase with increasing calcite content and clay content, which is possibly due to an increasing in inter-particle bonding. It also reveals that the magnitude and rate of collapse are controlled mainly by the calcite content, pH of wetting
fluid, clay content, dry density, and wetting stress. Both magnitude and rate of collapse decrease with increasing CaCO3 content and dry density but CP increases with increasing wetting stress: each sample reaching a maximum defined by their initial strength, beyond which CP decreases. Increasing clay content resulted in higher CP for non-calcareous samples but resulted in lower CP for calcareous samples. Wetting with acidic solution demonstrated higher CP and tends to prolong time to reach complete collapse resulting in long-term collapse known as subsidence settlement.
Silicatization was found to reduce stiffness at early curing with minimal increase in UCS, but at later ages both UCS and stiffness progressively increased with curing time and drying. Silicatization was more effective at increasing strength and stiffness of specimens with higher clay and calcite contents. For each curing period, mixing & kneading produced higher UCS than impregnation by between 140% - 356%, 63% - 193%, and 16% - 71% at 7, 14, and 28 days curing, respectively. At 300kPa wetting stress, silicatization and heat-curing reduced CP by between 59% – 73% under distilled water wetting and 70% – 78% under AS wetting.
Key Words: Calcareous, Collapsibility, Unconfined compressive strength, silicatization.The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), Nigeri
Cryptic viruses in Black-grass : Investigating their role in plant stress tolerance
Get PDFPh. D. Thesis.Cryptic viruses are a group of persistent plant viruses characterised by a lack of
disease symptoms, very low virus titer and lifelong persistence in individual hosts.
These characteristics highlight a very close relationship between cryptic viruses and
their hosts and so, our main hypothesis is that they are mutualistic symbionts of their
hosts. Our main aim was to study the effect of viral cryptic infections on the tolerance
of plants to abiotic stress. We worked with three cryptic viruses recently discovered in
black-grass (Alopecurus myosuroides) populations: Alopecurus myosuroides
partitivirus 1 (AMPV1), Alopecurus myosuroides partitivirus 2 (AMPV2) and
Alopecurus myosuroides varicosavirus 1 (AMVV1). We started by characterizing these
viruses. AMPV1 and AMPV2 are widespread in the studied populations and vertically
transmitted. The titer of each virus varies across a wide range, both between and inside
all tested populations. This increases population plasticity, the possible negative and
positive effects of the viruses being distributed at different “strength levels” across the
populations, increasing its survival potential against changing environmental
conditions, and thus, potentially improving population fitness. AMVV1 shows variable
incidence and titer in the populations and vertical transmission. It is possible that this
variability might be due to different levels of resistance to this virus or/and to the
efficiency of the transmission. Bioassays were carried out to analyse the viral effect on
plant tolerance to drought stress. Although no significant effect on tolerance was
observed, different trends were associated with each virus. AMVV1 appears to act as
a conditional mutualist, hindering growth under normal conditions but alleviating these
negative effects under stress. AMPV1 affects the growth pattern of its host regardless
of the environmental conditions, favouring the development of short plants with many
tillers. This could increase the plant’s fitness as it might increase its competitiveness
in grassland. In contrast, AMPV2 acts as an antagonist, negatively affecting the growth
of its host, an effect that is exacerbated under stres
1 Allosteric inhibitors of the Ras-activating exchange factor Sos -- 2 Inhibition of interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4) with drug-like-small-molecules as a useful therapy in lymphoid cancers -- 3 FragLites: Developing new approaches to asses druggability and hit finding -- 4 MDM2-PROTACS for the Androgen Receptors (ARs) as a prostate cancer treatment
Get PDFPh. D. Thesis.SoS protein is responsible for keeping Ras, a key molecular switch involved in cell division,
turned on. In many cancers a mutation in the Ras protein can permanently lock the molecular
switch into the ‘on’ position, leading to enhanced cell division. This problem is especially
relevant to pancreatic cancer, which has a particularly high prevalence of mutant Ras driven
tumours (90%). Inhibiting the ability of SoS to catalyse nucleotide exchange on Ras has the
potential to afford a means of targeting oncogenic Ras signalling.
In preliminary studies, we have identified small molecule compounds that bind to an
unprecedented site on SoS itself and have the potential to inhibit Ras activation via a novel
allosteric mechanism. Currently, we are exploring and modifying the structure of this small
molecule to achieve a more potent and drug-like compound.
Small-molecule inhibitors of interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4)
Interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4) is a transcription factor that has been shown to regulate
the survival of several aggressive lymphoid malignancies. It appears to be a master-regulator
of gene transcription in myeloma, influencing cellular survival, proliferation, metabolism and
differentiation. siRNA knockdown of IRF4 by only 40 – 60% is lethal to myeloma cells. The
possibility of inhibiting IRF4 with drug-like small-molecules could be a useful therapy in a
number of aggressive lymphoid cancers.
High Throughput Screen using Fluorescence Polarization assay for the IRF4 DNA Binding
Domain and a fragment-based screen using SPR and NMR were undertaken. 7 hits were obtained from both screens and 63 close analogues were synthesised to explore SAR and
address physicochemical properties.
FragLites: Bifunctional Halogenated Fragments
Identification of ligand binding sites on proteins is of critical importance for chemical
biology and drug discovery applications. We describe an efficient and comprehensive
approach to mapping interaction sites on a protein using a designed set of bifunctional
halogenated fragments that express hydrogen-bonding pharmacophore doublets. These
fragments are capable of seeking out productive polar interactions and can be identified
unambiguously by X-ray crystallography by the anomalous scattering of their halogen
substituent.
Soaking this set of compounds with CDK2 elucidated previously identified binding sites and
also new ones, which can be used as starting points for fragment growing and drug designMDM2-PROTACS for the Androgen Receptors (AR)
PROTACS (proteolysis targeting chimeric molecules) have been recently disclosed as
chemical tools to target specific proteins for destruction by the proteasome. PROTACS
comprise a ligand for an E3 ligase protein that may be a peptide or small molecule, and a
ligand for the target protein. The advent of highly potent and specific ligands for MDM2 (E3
ligase) offers the opportunity to develop MDM2-PROTACS. Several compounds were
designed to target the Androgen Receptor via Flutamide using two different MDM2 ligands
and a broad variety of linkers We have demonstrated the activity of MDM2 PROTACS for degradation of the AR and
confirmed the importance of the linker length in different in vitro assays. The influence of the
potency of the E3 ligase ligand was also confirmed by SPR experiments
Automated inverse-rendering techniques for realistic 3D artefact compositing in 2D photographs
Get PDFPhD ThesisThe process of acquiring images of a scene and modifying the defining structural features
of the scene through the insertion of artefacts is known in literature as compositing. The
process can take effect in the 2D domain (where the artefact originates from a 2D image
and is inserted into a 2D image), or in the 3D domain (the artefact is defined as a dense
3D triangulated mesh, with textures describing its material properties).
Compositing originated as a solution to enhancing, repairing, and more broadly editing
photographs and video data alike in the film industry as part of the post-production stage.
This is generally thought of as carrying out operations in a 2D domain (a single image
with a known width, height, and colour data). The operations involved are sequential and
entail separating the foreground from the background (matting), or identifying features
from contour (feature matching and segmentation) with the purpose of introducing new
data in the original. Since then, compositing techniques have gained more traction in the
emerging fields of Mixed Reality (MR), Augmented Reality (AR), robotics and machine
vision (scene understanding, scene reconstruction, autonomous navigation). When focusing
on the 3D domain, compositing can be translated into a pipeline 1 - the incipient stage
acquires the scene data, which then undergoes a number of processing steps aimed at
inferring structural properties that ultimately allow for the placement of 3D artefacts
anywhere within the scene, rendering a plausible and consistent result with regard to the
physical properties of the initial input.
This generic approach becomes challenging in the absence of user annotation and
labelling of scene geometry, light sources and their respective magnitude and orientation,
as well as a clear object segmentation and knowledge of surface properties. A single image,
a stereo pair, or even a short image stream may not hold enough information regarding
the shape or illumination of the scene, however, increasing the input data will only incur
an extensive time penalty which is an established challenge in the field.
Recent state-of-the-art methods address the difficulty of inference in the absence of
1In the present document, the term pipeline refers to a software solution formed of stand-alone modules
or stages. It implies that the flow of execution runs in a single direction, and that each module has the
potential to be used on its own as part of other solutions. Moreover, each module is assumed to take an
input set and output data for the following stage, where each module addresses a single type of problem
only.
data, nonetheless, they do not attempt to solve the challenge of compositing artefacts
between existing scene geometry, or cater for the inclusion of new geometry behind complex
surface materials such as translucent glass or in front of reflective surfaces.
The present work focuses on the compositing in the 3D domain and brings forth a
software framework 2 that contributes solutions to a number of challenges encountered in
the field, including the ability to render physically-accurate soft shadows in the absence
of user annotate scene properties or RGB-D data. Another contribution consists in the
timely manner in which the framework achieves a believable result compared to the other
compositing methods which rely on offline rendering. The availability of proprietary
hardware and user expertise are two of the main factors that are not required in order to
achieve a fast and reliable results within the current framework
Benchmarking and evaluation of blockchain systems and applications
Get PDFPh. D. ThesisIn the past ten years, we have witnessed the evolution of cryptocurrencies. With market capitalizations of 19bn respectively in
September 2019, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the world’s most successful
cryptocurrencies. Blockchain, which is a public ledger that is immutable,
is the main innovation behind these cryptocurrencies. In Bitcoin, the
blockchain is introduced to exchange and trade a single asset, whereas in
Ethereum it is used to store and execute a smart contract with a Turing
Complete Machine.
Ethereum’s Gas mechanism, which charges the execution of each operation code, ensures the termination of smart contracts that run in the EVM
(Ethereum Virtual Machine) and to compensate the computational usage.
Thus, the gas awarded should be proportional to the required computational, to ensure aligned incentives and to avoid denial of services attacks.
Currently, in Ethereum, gas awarded is set statically for each opcode in
the smart contract, but it is unknown whether these values are correct for
various computer architectures.
Therefore, in this thesis, firstly, we propose a benchmark approach to
measure the CPU times required to deploy and execute real smart contracts obtained from the Ethereum blockchain and compare it with the
gas award in the PyEthApp client running over a single machine. The
result of our benchmark study shows the collected Gas is not always proportional to the invested CPU for both deploying and executing smart
contracts.
Secondly, we focus more in-depth on the operational codes (opcodes) and
conduct a benchmark study to investigate whether the Gas cost set by
Ethereum for each opcode is aligned with the CPU usage. The experiments are conducted on three Ethereum clients running over different
hardware platforms and operating systems. The results show that the
Gas cost is not always proportional to CPU usage. Finally, we implement and analyze the performance of blockchain and
smart contract technologies in different domains, in particular cloud computing and distributed database management systems. In cloud computing, we create the first smart contract implementation that achieves
both verifiability and cost-efficiency using any two client providers. For
distributed database management systems, we implement the first smart
contract-based two-phase commit protocol in Ethereum’s blockchain. For
both systems, we investigate the cost, the performance and trade-offs
in the blockchain. We tested the implementations of these systems on
Ethereum’s official, test and private networks. We also provide a financial
and computational analysis of their costs
An Examination of the Impact of Using Hybrid MOOCs on Students' Experiences and Achievements within Higher Education in Saudi Arabia: A Case Study of Male Students in Majmaah University
Get PDFEd. D. ThesisGlobally, many universities and colleges have been experiencing a transformation in pedagogy
over the last decade where face to face learning has been integrated with the digital and online.
MOOCs first emerged in 2008 and are platforms that have many online components able to
offer university level courses to very large numbers of learners at no additional charge or
relatively low costs for them. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has not been entirely left
behind in this pedagogical revolution, but MOOCs have not yet been implemented on a country
wide scale. This research attempts to understand whether Hybrid MOOCs (integration of
massive open online courses and in class activities) could affect student academic achievement
in terms of marks obtained. In addition, the thesis investigates the learner experience, attitudes,
and challenges when they study with Hybrid MOOCs. The thesis employs a quasi-experimental
research design, convergent parallel mixed methods (qualitative and quantitative), and multiple
sources of data collection: semi-structured interviews, questionnaires, and pre/post-tests. 81
BSc students (control group =36 /experimental group = 45) who studied the ‘Educational
Technology and Communication Skills’ module at the Majmaah University in the 1st semester
of 2017-2018 participated in this project for a whole 14-week semester. The study found that
there was a statistically significant difference in the grades obtained by the experimental group
when Hybrid MOOCs were deployed which was evident in the substantial difference in Mean
marks obtained between the pre-test and post-test in this group. However, when comparing the
marks obtained by the control group (studying with traditional face to face pedagogy) and
experimental group (studying with Hybrid MOOCs) in their pre-test and post-tests, it was
shown that there was no statistically significant difference (although the experimental group's
marks were slightly better). The thesis results further indicated that the students had preferred
Hybrid MOOCs learning, and particularly video-based instructions. It also revealed that
students’ attitudes changed radically before and after using Hybrid MOOCs, as they were quite
anxious prior to studying with the new teaching method, anticipating it to be complicated and
complex. However, after their engagement, their attitudes and feelings changed significantly,
and they showed positive sentiments towards this mode of studying. Challenges of MOOCs
were largely related to outside issues and not to studying in this new mode. The implications
of this study are significant, especially in regards to Hybrid MOOCs being employed in
developing countries. The study is an important one as the ability of MOOCs to influence
academic grades may be the decisive factor in them becoming a possible alternative to the face
to face classes within KSA higher educational institutions. However, due to the limited scope of the study being conducted at one university in one city and all the participants being male,
further research is needed in order to offer a more comprehensive account of the impact of this
phenomenon on students’ grades.
Keywords: Hybrid MOOCs, Students' Experiences, Academic Achievements, Attitude,
Challenges, Higher Education, Saudi Arabi
Host factors and environmental stimuli that regulate Schizosaccharomyces pombe LTR retrotransposons
Get PDFPh. D. ThesisThe fission yeast, Schizosaccharomyces pombe is host to the Tf2 family of long
terminal repeat (LTR) retrotransposons. Uncontrolled propagation of these elements
is a potential threat to genomic integrity and therefore their expression and
mobilization is subjected to strict control. To analyse the host factors and
environmental stimuli that influence the propagation of Tf2 elements, an assay was
employed that allows the mobilization frequency of a marked endogenous element
(Tf2-12natAI) to be monitored. Using this assay it was determined that a high copy
number of Tf1, a related Ty3/gypsy LTR retrotransposon, can stimulate Tf2
mobilization via a post-transcriptional mechanism that is dependent upon Tf1-encoded
proteins. Indeed, the data suggest that Tf2 can hijack the propagation mechanisms of
a Tf1 for its own use. During these studies it was discovered that the composition of
the growth medium has a major impact upon Tf2 activity. Cell culture in minimal (EMM)
medium, instead of rich (YE5S) medium, resulted in increased Tf2 expression and
mobilization. The increased level of Tf2 activity resulted from some specific
components of EMM medium, namely ammonium (NH4
+
) and phthalate ions. The
finding that the growth medium influences Tf2 activity also prompted analysis of TORC
signalling cascades which are master regulators of cellular responses to environment.
Both the expression and mobilization of Tf2 elements was activated in response to
exposure to rapamycin, a drug that forms a complex with the FKBP12 protein (Fkh1)
and inhibits the activity of the TORC1 complex. This suggested that Tf2 activity is
under the TORC1 control but surprisingly, the inhibition of TORC1 using a tor2
temperature sensitive allele or a direct chemical inhibitor (Torin1) did not activate the
expression of Tf2 elements. Therefore, rapamycin influences the expression of Tf2
elements via a TORC1-independent pathway. This pathway was found to be
dependent upon the FKBP12 protein Fkh1, the forkhead transcription factor Fhl1, a
putative co-activator protein Crf1 and the Pka signalling pathwa
Investigating the impacts of increased uptake of electric vehicles on air quality and health
Get PDFPhD ThesisGlobally, nine million deaths per year are attributed to exposure to air pollution, as estimated
by the Lancet Commission on Pollution and Health (Landrigan et al., 2018). In the UK,
approximately 40,000 deaths per annum are attributed to exposure to PM2.5 and NO2, costing
society nearly £20 billion annually from the health-related consequences of people suffering
diseases and early deaths (Royal College of Physicians, 2016). Road transport emissions are a
major source of air contaminants, and in 2016 they contributed to 12.4% of PM2.5, 11.7% of
PM10 and 33.6% of NOx (DEFRA, 2018); the latter contributing 80% of NO2 concentrations at
roadsides (DEFRA and DfT, 2017a). Additionally, vehicular emissions account for 24% of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (BEIS, 2018a).
To mitigate air quality pollutants and GHGs, the UK government’s Road to Zero strategy plans
to limit the sale of new cars and vans to ultra-low emissions vehicles (ULEVs), mainly focusing
on electric vehicles (EVs), by 2040 with the aim of forming an entire stock of ULEVs by 2050.
Currently, the government is investing £1.5 billion in measures dedicated to increasing the
penetration of ULEVs and optimising their manufacturing and infrastructure. These measures
would result in changes in the vehicle fleet mix and consequently reductions in emissions and
pollutant concentrations. A detailed investigation is needed to quantify their impact. In this
research, the impact of changes in the vehicle fleet with the increased adoption of EV, on air
quality and health was investigated via scenarios that consider different levels of future EV
uptake replacing conventional vehicles in Newcastle and Gateshead.
Road transport network data for 2010 for the study area was acquired and updated to provide
the 2014 Baseline, considering traffic growth for each vehicle class. The Baseline traffic model
was validated following the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges criteria. The resulting
emissions rates were calculated using an emissions model. The dispersion of pollutants was
modelled taking into consideration the effect of meteorological factors. The air quality model
was validated following DEFRA Technical Guidance.
The 2014 Baseline traffic was updated to business-as-usual (BAU) for 2030. Six future
scenarios were developed based on this BAU. These scenarios include:
1. ‘CCC’: Committee on Climate Change proposal for 30% of cars and 38% of vans being
electric;
2. ‘E-Bus’: electrification of all buses;
3. ‘E-Car’: electrification of all cars;
4. ‘E-Car_E-Bus’: electrification of all cars and buses;
5. ‘E-Car_E-LGV’: electrification of all cars and LGVs; and
6. ‘All-EV’: electrification of all vehicles.
Emission and dispersion models were applied to determine changes in air quality in response
to the BAU and the six scenarios. The results indicate that pollution concentrations in 2030
would be reduced to varying extents compared to the 2014 Baseline. The annual mean
reductions at the 66 General Practitioner (GP) sites were averaged for all 2030 scenarios across
the study and showed a drop of 8 µg/m3
in NO2 levels and 3 µg/m3
in PM10 and PM2.5 levels.
The Department of Health recommended dose-response coefficients, which describe the
association between exposure to a certain amount of pollutants and the probabilities of being
admitted to hospital and early mortality, were applied to the pollutant reductions at each GP
site to estimate the number of respiratory hospital admissions at each GP location. Disease
burden estimates suggest that the 2030 BAU will reduce hospital admissions by 1,297,
representing 13% of the 9,693 cases recorded in 2014. It was noted that a large reduction in
hospital admissions would occur due to decreases in NO2 concentrations. In the All-EV
ii
scenario, hospital admissions are expected to be reduced by 1,377, which could also nearly be
achieved either by electrifying all cars and all buses or electrifying all cars and LGVs with a
lower cost in relation to All-EV. Reducing premature mortality is estimated to account for 14
to 16 incidents. This study shows that the EV uptake scenarios will result in significant
reductions in air pollution emissions and concentrations and consequent hospital admissions
compared to BAU taking into consideration the relatively small population of Newcastle and
Gateshead