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Molecular detection and charcaterisation of biologically relevant free radicals during surgical ischaemia-reperfusion
No full textWeather corrected electricity demand forecasting
Get PDFElectricity load forecasts now form an essential part of the routine operations of
electricity companies. The complexity of the short-term load forecasting (STLF)
problem arises from the multiple seasonal components, the change in consumer
behaviour during holiday seasons and other social and religious events that affect
electricity consumption. The aim of this research is to produce models for electricity
demand that can be used to further the understanding of the dynamics of electricity
consumption in South Wales. These models can also be used to produce weather
corrected forecasts, and to provide short-term load forecasts.
Two novel time series modelling approaches were introduced and developed. Profiles
ARIMA (PARIMA) and the Variability Decomposition Method (VDM). PARIMA is a
univariate modelling approach that is based on the hierarchical modelling of the
different components of the electricity demand series as deterministic profiles, and
modelling the remainder stochastic component as ARIMA, serving as a simple yet
versatile signal extraction procedure and as a powerful prewhitening technique. The
VDM is a robust transfer function modelling approach that is based on decomposing
the variability in time series data to that of inherent and external. It focuses the transfer
function model building on explaining the external variability of the data and produces
models with parameters that are pertinent to the components of the series.
Several candidate input variables for the VDM models for electricity demand were
investigated, and a novel collective measure of temperature the Fair Temperature Value
(FTV) was introduced. The FTV takes into account the changes in variance of the daily
maximum and minimum temperatures with time, making it a more suitable explanatory
variable for the VDM model.
The novel PARIMA and VDM approaches were used to model the quarterly, monthly,
weekly, and daily demand series. Both approaches succeeded where existing approaches
were unsuccessful and, where comparisons are possible, produced models that were
superior in performance. The VDM model with the FTV as its explanatory variable was
the best performing model in the analysis and was used for weather correction. Here,
weather corrected forecasts were produced using the weather sensitive components of
the PARIMA models and the FTV transfer function component of the VDM model
Fire incidence in metropolitan areas: a comparative study of Brisbane (Australia) and Cardiff (United Kingdom)
No full textESRC (Ref No: RES-576-25-0021
Xbox 360: a digital forensic investigation of the hard disk drive
No full textIn recent years an increase in the complexity of games has subsequently demanded an upscale of the hardware in the consoles required to run them. It is not uncommon for games consoles to now feature many pieces of hardware similar to those found in a standard personal computer. In terms of forensics the most significant inclusion in todays games consoles is the storage media, whether they are flash based memory cards, or electro-mechanical hard disk drives. When combined with networks, particularly the internet, this inbuilt storage gives games consoles a host of new features, including the downloading of games, updating of console software/firmware, streaming media from different network locations, activities centred around social networking and usually involving user specific content being saved on the consoles storage media. This paper will look at analyzing the SATA hard disk drive contained in Microsofts Xbox 360 games console.We present our findings and provide suggested basic guidelines for future investigations to be able to recover stored remnants of information from the drive
Defining High-Level Signatures Using the Footprint Mark-up Language (FTML)
No full textThe computer misuse model of intrusion detection focuses upon single events, and attempts to extrapolate from this starting point to identify an attack. It has long been understood that computer intrusions are multifaceted complex entities that evolve over time. Current applications of the computer misuse model are narrow and lack depth when applied to the analysis of complex attacks that cannot be understood simply by examining packets in an isolated fashion without regards of the general context in which they occur. In this paper, a mark-up language that draws upon the state transition model of signatures is presented and extends it in allowing us to express complex and evolving attacks using the concept of a footprint
Linear and geometrically nonlinear analysis of thin rotational shells using the finite element method
No full textThe complete elastic behaviour of rotational shell
structures is investigated in the thesis, being presented in two major parts. Energy principles are implemented throughout - 'for the derivation of matrices utilizing the orthotropic strain energy expression developed by Ambartsumyan
The contribution of Scottish covenant thought to the discussions of the Westminster Assembly (1643-1648) and its continuing significance to the Marrow controversy (1717-1723)
Get PDFThis dissertation aims to examine the development and significance
of covenant doctrine in the Scottish Church during the struggles of the
seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. This development is examined in
its political, historical, social, theological and ecclesiastical
context.
The idea of covenant is central in both the Old and New Testaments;
it mostly denotes God's relationship with his people as distinct from
his relationship to the world. For the Covenanters, it became the
central hermeneutical key for interpreting Scripture. Covenant theology
had been familiar to the Church of Scotland for some time; the Scottish
Covenanters adopted and applied it rigorously to their lives and
situation they confronted. They believed on the basis of covenant that
Scotland should be free in matters both religious and political; church
leaders sought to place the whole nation under a covenant relationship
to God. The covenant concept was the central concern of Scottish
theology from 1643 to 1723 and was a theme zealously preached during the
century after John Knox's Reformation of Scotland in 1560. It had a
powerful impact in promoting and consolidating the Protestant cause.
Unfortunately, covenant thought also gave rise to conflict within the
Church of Scotland
Supporting learning-in-use : some applications of activity theory to the analysis and design of ICT-enabled collaborative work and learning
Get PDFThis thesis discusses some applications of activity theory to the analysis and
design of collaborative work and learning processes either partially or wholly enabled by the
use of information and communication technology (ICT). Activity theory (AT) is a monistic,
materialistic psychological meta-theory comprising several distinct strands of historical and
theoretical development. Founded in the former USSR in the early 1930s, it became a
fundamental approach in Soviet psychology. In the West, AT was first adopted as a
conceptual framework for human-computer interaction (HCI) and information systems design
(ISD) in the late 1980s by researchers associated with the Participatory Design (PD) and
Computer-Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW) movements. Mainly drawing on
Scandinavian interpretations of AT, this work established a distinctive, predominantly
cultural-historical approach to context-aware information technology design now known as
ATIT. ATIT is widely recognised as having made significant contributions to the theory and
vocabulary of HCI and ISD; the principal aim of this thesis is to further develop its usefulness
for ICT design. The research discussed explored the theory, history and development of ATIT
while also applying and evaluating various established and new practical ATIT methods.
These included the breakdown and focus-shifts analysis approach developed by Bødker and
her associates and some novel techniques based on systemic-structural activity theory
(SSAT), a modern, explicitly design-oriented synthesis of the cultural-historical and systemscybernetic
strands within Soviet activity theory.
The empirical investigation involved participatory action research into the uses of ICT at an
adult basic education (ABE) Open Learning Centre in south Wales, UK. A longitudinal study
of an intensive ICT-enabled ABE course, Computer Creative, was carried out between
September 2000 and May 2001 using ethnographic techniques. This was followed-up by a
short video-based study in May 2002. In both cases the aim was to use activity-theoretical techniques to identify ways of improving the use of ICT to support the Centre’s learnercentred,
empowerment-oriented ABE practice. Using the key ATIT notion of breakdown as a
starting-point, a number of factors influencing participants’ effective and creative learning-inuse
of and with the available technologies were identified. Among the most significant of
these was learners’ motivation during the ICT-enabled work-process. Conditions observed to
encourage positive motivation included physical co-location in a material and sociocultural
environment favouring self-regulation and mutual coordination through communicative and
instrumental means and the structuring of ICT-enabled tasks so as to facilitate the formation
and alignment of personally meaningful task-goals. Although user-interface (UI) design
emerged as only one among many task-conditions impacting on motivation, some
applications were persistently associated with recurrent and/or catastrophic breakdown. The
principal UI characteristics identified as likely contributors to such breakdowns were
inadequate provision of task-relevant information and under- or over-representation of task
complexity. Based on these findings, the thesis presents a number of recommendations and
guidelines for researchers and designers on the use of activity-theoretical techniques to create
and evaluate interactive information and communication systems, ICT-enabled workprocesses
and tasks, and ICT use-settings. In doing so it provides further evidence of the
potential applicability of AT to a range of IT-design challenges, while concluding that in
order to more fully realise this potential researchers should consider revising and expanding
the conceptual framework of ATIT to include ideas from SSAT
Cultural safety: an introduction
No full textSummary Cultural safety is one approach to integrating cultural components into nursing care. It is based on a broad definition of culture and on nurses’ analysis of their cultural selves and the impact these have on therapeutic encounters. It is the service user who judges whether the professional relationship feels culturally safe