University of Mannheim

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    DCBM: data-efficient visual concept bottleneck models

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    A protective belt for democracy: How configurations of political institutions can impede democratic backsliding

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    Which political institutions can protect democracies against executive overreach? We argue that it is not individual institutions, but the broader configuration of vertical power division---federalism, decentralization, bicameralism, constitutional courts, and rigid amendment rules---that forms a self-enforcing, multi-layered accountability structure. By fostering negotiation across branches and levels of government, these institutions operate in a complementary and compensatory manner, strengthening deliberative incentives and resisting the concentration of power within the political executive. To test this claim, we develop a Bayesian measurement model that treats vertical power division as a latent institutional configuration. Using a new publicly available dataset covering 61 democracies from 1990 to 2022, we show evidence that the vertical division of power may reduce the risk of executive aggrandizement. Our findings offer important insights into how institutional factors shape the development, decline, and resilience of democracies

    The dynamic impact of refugee immigration on native workers

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    We study how low and medium-skilled refugee immigration affects natives’ labor market outcomes. Using individual-level panel data on the German workforce for 2011-2019 and exogenous regional variation from processing authorities’ distances, we find that a larger inflow of refugees to a district increases the probability of full-time employment for incumbent workers. Fewer outflows of employment drive this effect. The yearly estimates suggest positive labor demand responses in the short run-in occupations that supply services to the refugees - and positive labor supply effects in the medium run-in manufacturing occupations. Wages, job task composition, and job changes remain unaffected, though positive mobility responses are observed

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