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Get PDFThis paper develops a theory of growth with self-learning AI. I decompose “technologies” into a non-self-learning component T(t) and a recursive self-learning term (S(t) D(t))(t), where (t) = 0 + log(S(t) D(t)) links capability gains to deployed self-learning technologies S and data D. I present two complementary production functions. Version 1 highlights distributional channels by separating AI-complementary vs. AI-substitutable labor and human capital. Version 2 is measurement-oriented, mapping the self-learning stock to AI-specific physical capital, labor forces, and human capital, thereby operationalizing S. The model yields sharp regime conditions: with small/approximately constant (t), the economy exhibits a balanced growth path (BGP); when θ(t) becomes large enough to push effective returns above one, growth accelerates. A log-space recursion implies a quadratic bound for log((SD)(t)), establishing no finite-time singularity. The framework produces testable predictions—notably the need for both linear and quadratic terms in log(SD) in empirical specifications—and clarifies bottlenecks: insufficient AI-specific capital or low-quality data can hold down θ(t) and prevent acceleration even with advanced systems. Policy implications follow directly: scale compute and energy, raise HAI, LAI, and improve data governance/quality. The contribution is conceptual and theory-only, positioning the mechanism for subsequent empirical work while providing a tractable structure for cross-country comparisons in an economy increasingly driven by recursive, autonomous innovation
Balancing Workshare and Profitability within the Modern Universal Growth Theory (MUGT) Framework
Get PDFThis paper examines the dynamic behavior of the capital-labor-mix parameter α in CES production functions within the framework of the Modern Universal Growth Theory (MUGT). While traditional growth models don’t show openly the dynamic behavior of α, we show that under marginal profit optimization, α has to adapt continuously to remain on a balanced growth path (BGP). This adjustment leads to a redefinition of α at each basepoint—denoted αₘ—highlighting its role as a stabilizing variable. In practice, αₘ appears remarkably stable, suggesting the presence of market or institutional mechanisms that counterbalance the change of the capital-labor-mix α by technical progress.
Growth, without counterbalance of the capital-labor-mix α and with elasticity of substitution σ≠1, always leads in the long run to a labor-only or capital-only production function.
We further explore whether policy should focus on stabilizing workshare ws or on maintaining profitability r
Le déficit de gouvernance en Afrique : Comment les sociétés réagissent face aux défaillances de l'État
Get PDFEconomic governance is measured by economic freedom, while political governance is measured by the electoral competitiveness index. How can political instability and poor governance in SSA be coped with? This is often seen as the overarching problem that exacerbates many others. Systemic corruption at all levels deprives the state of much-needed revenue, increases the cost of doing business and undermines public trust in institutions. In addition, weak institutions, such as an inefficient judiciary, inadequate public administration and barely existing public services, hinder development. Poor governance, reflected in a lack of rule of law, property rights, a regulatory burden, political violence and ineffective government, impedes growth in per capita revenue. In African politics, neo-patrimonialism appears to be the default setting, described as the 'moral economy of corruption' or the 'economics of affection’. Even with the support of the donor community, governments may develop ambitious plans to improve governance and strengthen institutions, yet fail to improve the standard of living of their citizens. Since the Second World War, Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, has had the poorest economic performance of any region in the world. By the end of the 20th century, incomes per capita had barely improved since independence, and in some cases had worsened considerably. The main problem was the failure to improve the efficiency of resource use. In contrast to many other developing countries, total factor productivity was static or negative for much of the time. With few exceptions, African countries have lacked a sound social and political foundation conducive to growth and development, and this foundation has tended to deteriorate over time. Good governance practices are supported by institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Good governance practices are also supported by such institutions. In order to receive development aid, states must apply and accept the principles of good governance. If they neglect to do so, African states risk not receiving financial aid. Accountability is a positive aspect of good governance. However, African states have developed a 'new culture', especially after decolonisation. There is a significant difference in perspective between Africans and Westerners regarding governance. The clientelist forms of politics that define postcolonial states do not stem from a class project, but are a contemporary manifestation of a dynamic national, African and ethnic culture
Estimación de la informalidad económica en Paraguay con el índice Tanzi–Feige. Periodo de análisis marzo 2020 a noviembre 2024
Get PDFThis study estimates a monthly index of economic informality for Paraguay using the currency-demand shadow economy framework (Tanzi–Feige). We specify a log-linear cash demand function that includes the real interest rate, the price level (CPI), economic activity (GDP), and tax pressure.Series are transformed (logs and first differences where appropriate) based on ADF/KPSS tests; we also control for seasonality and outliers to support robust inference. The model’s unexplained component is interpreted as a monetary proxy for informality and is normalized to construct the index. Unlike simple accounting ratios (e.g., currency/M2), this approach adjusts for income, prices, and the opportunity cost of holding cash, isolating deviations attributable to the shadow economy.
As an extension, we assessed including cooperative credit (CAC) to capture channels parallel to the formal banking system; we found no severe multicollinearity with tax pressure but (at most) moderate correlation, but we excluded CAC from the main specification due to heavy tails and heteroskedasticity. The results yield a parsimonious and stable index across sensitivity exercises (alternative specifications and diagnostic validation), and we discuss policy implications for tax design and payment traceability, together with limitations and avenues for future research
Teletrabajo y desplazamientos: Modelización teórica y evidencia empírica para Estados Unidos
Get PDFThis paper examines the household decision to work from home (WFH) using the collective labor supply framework, which accounts for intrahousehold bargaining in time allocation across market work, domestic tasks, and telework. The model incorporates the joint budget constraint, domestic production, and relative bargaining power, allowing decisions to be understood as interdependent between spouses. Based on this framework, a system of simultaneous equations is derived and estimated through different econometric strategies (OLS, fixed effects, SUR, and SUR-IV). Results reveal a negative income effect on labor supply, significant cross-spousal interactions, and clear gender asymmetries: women’s domestic time substantially reduces their labor supply, while men’s impact remains marginal. The findings suggest that telework may enhance work–life balance but also risks reinforcing inequalities if not accompanied by redistributive and responsibility-sharing policies
Theoretical Modeling of Macroeconomic Stability under Austerity: The Roles of FDI, Consumption Volatility, and Wage Financing
Get PDFThis study examines the persistence of investment in a closed economy under austerity conditions, focusing on the interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI), public expenditures, and payroll financing. We develop a dynamic model where investment volatility follows a FIGARCH process, capturing long-memory effects, while household consumption and investment interact through adaptive expectations. Policy implications suggest that strategic fiscal interventions can mitigate the adverse effects of economic contractions, supporting long-term investment flows and financial stability
Effect of cash conversion cycle on financial performance of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria
Get PDFThis study examined the effect of cash conversion
cycle on financial performance of listed consumer
goods firms in Nigeria. The specific objectives were
toascertain the effect of accounts receivable
turnover ratio on return on assets of listed consumer
goods firms in Nigeria, to determine the effect of
account payable turnover ratio on return on assets of
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria and to assess
the effect of inventory turnover ratio on return on
assets of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria
The study adopted an ex-post facto research design
and utilized a panel data of one hundred and fifty
(150) pooled observations gathered from fifteen (15)
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria over a ten
(10)-year period (2014-2023). It also employed a
panel multiple regression technique to analyze the
data via E-views 10.0 statistical package. The study
findings revealed that account receivable turnover
ratio has a significant positive (Coeff.
=0.0778{0.0012}) effect on return on assets of listed
consumer goods firms in Nigeria while account
payable turnover ratio has a non-significant negative
(Coeff. =-0.0590{0.7897}) effect on return on assets
of listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria. It also
revealed that inventory turnover ratio has a
significant positive (Coeff. =1.5166{0.0472}) effect
on return on assets of listed consumer goods firms in
Nigeria. It was thus concluded that cash conversion
has a significant effect on financial performance of
listed consumer goods firms in Nigeria. The
recommendations made included that listed
consumer goods firms in Nigeria should prioritize
efficient accounts receivable management by
implementing effective credit policies, credit monitoring, and debt collection strategies for
enhanced financial performance
Mining Revenues and Institutional Weakness: The Political Economy of the DRC’s 0.3% Community Development Fund
Get PDFThis paper analyzes the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) legal requirement that mining companies allocate 0.3 percent of annual turnover to local community development. Drawing on the 2025 audit of forty-four community development funds by the Court of Auditors, the study reveals systematic underreporting of revenues, delayed or missing payments, weak financial management, and the absence of sanctions between 2018 and 2023. Using institutional economics and principal–agent theory, it shows how asymmetric information, misaligned incentives, and political interference undermine the system’s effectiveness. Comparative evidence from Peru’s canon minero and Ghana’s Mineral Development Fund demonstrates that success depends less on legal design than on credible verification, coordination, and community oversight. The paper proposes reforms to strengthen enforcement, transparency, and accountability in the DRC’s mining governance framework
Fairness, ambiguity, wage markups and disinflation costs
Get PDFThe notion that much of the reduction in disinflation costs in recent decades is due to better anchoring converges with the proposition of Dow, Simonsen and Werlang's (1993) that part of the sacrifice ratios of poorly anchored economies may be caused by coordination problems, which they modeled as ambiguity. The present paper associates ambiguity in disinflation with fairness in the labor market, but modeling it without an effective reduction in effort, and with inflation persistence, thus presenting similarities with Driscoll and Holden (2004). Bayesian inference with North American data with the model shows that the pattern here associated with ambiguity and fairness was especially pronounced during the Volcker disinflation, had local peaks after the oil shocks during the great inflation, did not happen following the wave of adverse productivity shocks after Volcker's macroeconomic anchorage, nor did it happen in the disinflation immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic. To make this inference, this paper models wage markup shocks by including in them factors such as an ambiguity premium, in contrast with the format that restricts them solely to shocks in the elasticity of substitution between different kinds of labor. This provides an explanation for the results of some well-known works with evidence compatible with the idea that increases in the (wide concept of) wage markups were a major cause of the increase of the unemployment rate and of the decrease in output during the Volcker disinflation. The paper concludes by briefly discussing ambiguity in disinflations of high and moderate inflations under both inflation targeting and exchange rate anchors
Does the Rise of Anthropic Signal a Sustainable AI Economy or Another Technological Bubble?
Get PDFThe recent ascent of Anthropic, a United States-based artificial-intelligence company founded in 2021 by former OpenAI executives, has reignited the debate over whether the global AI boom represents sustainable technological transformation or a new financial bubble. With a private valuation surpassing 180 billion USD and projected annualized revenue exceeding 20 billion USD by 2026, Anthropic embodies both the promise of rapid innovation and the risks of speculative exuberance. This paper examines the firm’s growth within the theoretical frameworks of Schumpeterian innovation, Minskyan financial cycles, and contemporary analyses of digital-economy concentration. Drawing on publicly available financial data, corporate disclosures, and secondary literature, it interprets Anthropic’s trajectory as a case study in the financialization of cognition. The discussion highlights how alliances with Amazon and Google have turned frontier AI into an infrastructure-dependent oligopoly, while unresolved issues of data ownership and legal accountability question the durability of such valuations. The study concludes that Anthropic’s rise illustrates the dual nature of modern technological capitalism: the capacity for exponential value creation tempered by systemic fragility and institutional lag