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Why Rural Residents Do Not Migrate: The Hidden Welfare Costs of Rural-Urban Migration
Get PDFA persistent puzzle in developing economies is why rural households remain in low-productivity agricultural sectors despite the substantial income gaps with non-agricultural opportunities. While existing studies attribute this gap to market frictions, institutional barriers, and differences in human capital, this paper shifts the focus to household-level welfare trade-offs, specifically, the non-pecuniary welfare losses borne by family members left behind when working-age individuals migrate. We develop a theoretical framework to show how such hidden costs affect labor reallocation and how they can be quantified empirically. Leveraging China's Grain for Green (GFG) Program--a nationwide conservation policy that induced farmland retirement in exchange for subsidies, we show that the policy led to significant increases in migration and non-agricultural labor, especially among women and younger individuals. Using revealed preference logic, we estimate that hidden migration costs amount to 10.5--12.6% of total household income for policy-induced migrants. Drawing on rich survey data, we trace these costs to two key sources: disruptions to children's education and reduced caregiving capacity for elderly household members. These findings highlight the need for policies that ease the burden of migrating with dependents, such as removing restrictions on education and healthcare access in destination areas
Semer la croissance: Libérer le potentiel des bourses de produits agricoles en Afrique subsaharienne
Get PDFThe establishment of commodity exchanges offers significant advantages for low-income, agriculturally dependent countries seeking to enhance export performance. A notable example is the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX), which contributed to a substantial increase in coffee exports, benefiting producers through expanded export volumes and diversified market access. Similarly, in May 2025, Côte d’Ivoire launched West Africa’s first agricultural commodities exchange, supported by the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM)—the common securities market for the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Initially, this exchange lists cashew nuts, kola nuts, and maize, with plans to expand trading to cocoa and approximately twenty additional commodities in the future. Africa currently hosts 38 stock exchanges across 29 national capital markets, 22 of which are members of the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA). Among these, 12 countries facilitate agricultural commodity trading: South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Uganda. Commodity exchanges in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) play a pivotal role in strengthening market structures by improving market access, mitigating price volatility, and integrating smallholder farmers into formal economic systems. Despite structural challenges—such as infrastructural deficits and capacity-building needs—these platforms demonstrate considerable potential for fostering sustainable agricultural development in the region. Empirical evidence suggests that while market capitalization negatively impacts agricultural growth, the value of traded stocks exerts a positive influence. Consequently, governments in African emerging economies should prioritize capital market expansion to stimulate growth through agricultural value addition. Policy frameworks that bolster investor confidence via institutional strengthening and stock market development are essential. However, it is equally critical to recognize the potential for cross-market risk transmission, given the continent’s heavy reliance on commodities and the interdependence between stock market performance and macroeconomic stability. Risk transmission arises when information dissemination is delayed or incomplete, leading to contagion effects where adverse market sentiment spreads irrespective of local conditions. Notably, commodity prices and exchange rate fluctuations exhibit bidirectional risk transmission with SSA stock markets, particularly over the long term. Thus, shifts in these variables can significantly influence stock market volatility in the region
Building Financial Power in Small and Medium Enterprises
Get PDFThis paper examines the critical yet underutilized role of financial ratio analysis in enhancing the crisis preparedness and resilience of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Drawing from recent studies, the paper synthesizes evidence showing that when ratio analysis is performed systematically and integrated into daily management, it can act as an early warning system and guide proactive decision-making during economic shocks. While large firms have demonstrated the effectiveness of real-time liquidity, solvency, and profitability monitoring during the COVID-19 pandemic, SMEs often lack the technological and governance capacity to do the same. This research highlights the potential of affordable digital dashboards, sector-specific benchmarking, and governance improvements to close this gap. Policy recommendations emphasize training, ecosystem support, and incentives to promote transparency and regular ratio use. Ultimately, the study underscores that ratio analysis must shift from a static compliance exercise to a dynamic, digitally enabled management practice if SMEs are to build robust resilience in an era of uncertainty
Environmental Performance in Transition: An Empirical Examination of Greece through the EPI Framework
Get PDFThe Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is a widely recognized tool developed by Yale University and Columbia University, in partnership with the World Economic Forum, to assess countries' environmental performance using 58 performance indicators across 11 issue categories. The EPI provides a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating environmental health, ecosystem vitality and climate change. Greece, as a member of the European Union (EU), operates within a complex regulatory framework aimed at promoting sustainable development. Greece's performance in the EPI reflects both its environmental policy efforts and its exposure to regional challenges such as air pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate-related risks. In recent years, Greece has demonstrated progress in areas such as renewable energy development and climate change mitigation, although issues like waste management and air quality continue to require focused policy intervention. Analyzing Greece’s EPI score offers valuable insights into its environmental priorities and the effectiveness of national strategies aimed at promoting sustainability and resilience
Productivity and Productive Capital: Metaphysical Perspectives
Get PDFThe research examines productivity and productive capital formation and the dynamic interplay between various factors of productivity. We attempt to derive a metaphysical perspective on the theory of productivity in relation to human capital formation. A simple model of productivity function has been designed to explain the underlying principles
Corporate Finance and Interest Rate Policy
Get PDFI develop flexible- and sticky-price general equilibrium models that embody endogenous corporate financing decisions affecting firm value due to distortionary taxes. Nominal interest-rate variations impact the costs of debt and equity capital asymmetrically and thereby induce firms to modify the financial structure, altering the gap between the optimization-based weighted average cost of capital and the real interest rate. Under these circumstances, I characterize conditions under which rules-based monetary policies that set the nominal interest rate as an increasing function of the inflation rate induce aggregate stability in the form of a unique stable equilibrium. In contrast to what is commonly argued, I demonstrate that both passive interest rate policies, which underreact to inflation, and mildly active interest rate policies, which overreact to inflation but below a threshold reflecting both tax and capital structures, ensure determinacy of equilibrium. Conversely, excessively aggressive inflation-fighting monetary actions are destabilizing in the presence of price stickiness by generating either multiple equilibria or the nonexistence of stable equilibria. Under the stabilizing monetary regimes, I prove that macroeconomic dynamics following either interest rate normalization or temporary monetary tightening critically depend upon the tax code and the
steady-state debt-equity ratio
The Skill Inside the Task: How AI and Robotics Reshape the Structure of Work.
Get PDFWe examine how exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics reshapes the skill composition of occupations. Using O*NET data from 2006 to 2019, we construct indicators tracking the importance of seven broad skill categories within each occupation over time. We link these indicators to task-based measures of technological exposure at the occupational level. We then focus on the effect of AI and robotics in altering the skill composition of high-, middle- and low-skilled groups of occupations. We find that AI primarily affects high-skill occupations by increasing the importance of Technical and Resource Management skills and decreasing that of Systems and Social skills. Robotics instead boosts Technical skills in middle and low-skill occupations and reduces Process skills in low-skilled ones. Notably, neither AI nor robots affect the importance of Complex Problem Solving skills
Наукастинг и прогнозирование ВВП России и его компонентов с помощью квантильных моделей
Get PDFThe paper examines the quality of probabilistic nowcasts and short-term forecasts of the Russian GDP and its components in constant prices (consumption, investment, exports and imports) based on the standard quantile regression model and its shrinkage modifications, aimed at reducing the risk of overfitting (averages of quantile forecasts, partial quantile regression, regressions with regularization, Bayesian quantile regression). We find that quantile models with predictors are superior to autoregressive and OLS models in terms of CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) metrics in nowcasting exercises for investment and consumption. When forecasting 1-4 quarters ahead, shrinkage models yield the most accurate forecasts of GDP and consumption distributions at all horizons. For investment and imports, shrinkage methods turn out to be the best performers at three forecast horizons out of four. There is no single shrinkage model, which would provide the best probabilistic forecasts of macroeconomic variables much more often than others
Turkish Trade in Eight Service Categories and the Role of Exchange Rate
Get PDFA new strand of literature in international economics is now in the early stages of development, i.e., the impact of exchange rate changes on service trade. We add to this literature by considering the link between the Turkish lira's real effective exchange rate and its trade in services. Since nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate has proven to yield more significant outcomes relative to linear adjustment, we estimate a nonlinear model (assuming the effects are asymmetric) in addition to a linear model (which assumes the effects are symmetric). When we first estimated the models using Turkish aggregate trade in services, we could only find some short-run effects. However, we disaggregated the data into eight service categories to reduce aggregation bias. We then found short-run significant effects in all eight service industries. Short-run effects lasted into long-run effects in six industries. The unaffected industries were construction and transport
Iran's Sustainability Gap: An Economic Analysis
Get PDFIran faces a widening sustainability gap as biocapacity stagnates while the ecological footprint expands. This study investigates how external debt, economic growth, natural resource rents, and renewable energy consumption affect the national load capacity factor—a composite index of biocapacity relative to ecological demand.
Annual data for 1995–2023 were compiled from the World Bank and the Global Footprint Network. After verifying integration orders with Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests and selecting an optimal lag length, Johansen cointegration confirmed the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Long-run coefficients were then estimated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). Model adequacy was evaluated with Hansen and Park cointegration tests, Jarque–Bera normality, and Ljung–Box and ARCH diagnostics.
FMOLS estimates revealed positive elasticities for external debt (0.12) and renewable energy consumption (0.11), indicating that prudent external financing and clean-energy expansion enhance Iran’s load capacity factor. Conversely, economic growth (–0.96) and natural resource rents (–0.12) exhibited negative elasticities, reflecting the resource-curse effect and the economy’s current position on the upward phase of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Diagnostic tests detected no autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or coefficient instability.
managed sovereign borrowing and accelerated investment in renewables can improve Iran’s environmental carrying capacity, provided that growth strategies become less resource-intensive and rent dependence diminishes. Policy measures should include carbon-linked fiscal rules, green load-capacity bonds, a natural-resource-rent stabilization fund, and an inflation-indexed carbon tax whose proceeds support renewable feed-in tariffs