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Impact de Trump 2.0 sur l'Afrique subsaharienne
Get PDFAs Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratising sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts, for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA
Measuring Currency Risk Premium: The Case of Turkey
Get PDFThis study examines the determinants of the change in currency expectations with different maturities (1-month, 3-month, and 1-year) in the Turkish Lira (TL) versus the US dollar. The risk premium is estimated using the interest rate differential and a latent component called the missing risk premium. The empirical model is extended to break down the risk component further using other explanatory variables, such as currency swap agreements, credit default risk (CDS), foreign reserves, and the VIX (Volatility Index). This study used a state-space model to deal with unobserved variables or parameters. The empirical model is evaluated between January 2005 and March 2023 with daily and weekly frequencies. The study's findings do not support the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. Instead, they favour the outcome of Fama's (1984) exchange rate prediction regressions. Our findings indicate interest rates and swaps explain most of the variation in the currency risk premium in the TL.
Moreover, we found a significant increase in both the level and volatility of the missing risk premium for long maturities after 2018. The coefficient of the missing risk premium and its long-lasting impact of the shock is significantly reduced when observable variables are added. Overall, this study sheds light on the complex interplay between changes in monetary policy, exchange rate, and risk premia in an emerging market context
Управление на снабдяването със земя и води в българските ферми
Get PDFThe study identifies dominant modes, factors, and efficiency of land and water supply in Bulgarian farms. It incorporates the New Institutional Economics methodology and new representative data collected through a survey of farm managers of different types and location
Metodología de descomposición sectorial para la integración de los flujos de la materia prima secundaria proveniente de Residuos Sólidos Urbanos en la Matriz Insumo-Producto visión Matriz de Contabilidad Social y equilibrio macroeconómico.
Get PDFEn este artículo se presenta una propuesta metodológica para el ingreso de los residuos y la materia prima secundaria en la matriz insumo producto visión matriz de contabilidad social que permita la evaluación de la política de gestión residuos. Para el efecto se utilizó como marco teórico la demanda agregada de Kalecki, la metodología para elaborar una MIP y las estimaciones porcentuales de residuos industriales y municipales. Con esta información se alcanzó el objetivo planteado y confirmó el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda agregada y las dos condiciones de consistencia macroeconómica necesarias para este modelo
Irrigation Investments and Agricultural Productivity: Unveiling the Mechanisms and Impacts under Climate Change
Get PDFLeveraging exogenous government irrigation investments and longitudinal household survey data over 15 years, we investigate how irrigation affects agricultural productivity under climate change. We find that the irrigation investment increased the share of irrigated farmland by 11.0%, which, in
turn, increased per-area output by 14.9%, net agricultural income by 15.6%, agricultural TFP by 13.7%, and per-labor output by 36.2%. These effects are driven by four key mechanisms: increased use of high-productivity inputs, expanded cultivation area, labor reallocation from farm work to off-farm work, and mitigation of drought damage. The induced land expansion and labor reallocation explain the much larger increase in per-labor output. A cost-benefit analysis suggests a high rate of return to irrigation investment, with about half of the return stemming from labor reallocation that increased off-farm income. This study highlights the policy relevance of irrigation investments in improving agricultural productivity and accelerating rural transformation under climate change
Financial Ratios for Mining Exploration Public Company Kermode Resources, 2005-2024
Get PDFFinancial statistics can be used to compare a mining exploration company’s performance over time or to other companies. For example, how much money was spent on exploration relative to the total amount of financing? These statistics can be helpful for investors who want to find management teams that prioritize exploration spending, an essential ingredient for success in mining exploration.
Engineering Economics, Mining, Royalties, Financ
Reconsidering the Relationship between CBI and FIX
Get PDFThis research note reconsiders the question of whether central bank independence (CBI) and fixed exchange rates (FIX) function as substitutes or complements. We argue that these monetary institutions have neither served as substitutes nor performed as complements for either inflation control or exchange rate stability. In terms of their substitutability, our statistical evidence shows that while CBI has been used for inflation control, FIX has been more directed towards exchange rate stability using updated datasets with these monetary institutions measured both on a de jure and de facto basis with nearly global country/year coverage from 1970 to 2020. In terms of their complementarity, our results also demonstrate that CBI was not more effective at reducing inflation when paired with greater FIX and FIX was not more effective at promoting exchange rate stability when paired with greater CBI. If anything, both are less effective when paired with the other monetary institution. These results suggest a “third generation” framework for studying CBI and FIX together with a focus on macroeconomic objectives beyond just domestic price stability
Evaluating seasonal weather risks on cereal yield distributions in southern India
Get PDFClimate change poses significant threats to Indian agriculture, markedly through its impact on crop yields. While most existing research focuses on climate-sensitive crops like rice, relatively climate-resilient cereals such as sorghum, maize and finger and pearl millets have received less attention. This study uses district-level data from four southern states over 26 years to conduct a moment-based analysis of the effects of various climatic and non-climatic factors on these crop yields. The research offers nuanced insights into how different weather patterns influence crop yields, yield variability (risk) and downside yield risks. The study disaggregates climate variables into seasonal effects, showing that winter maximum temperatures positively affect the yields of maize and sorghum but negatively impact rice. In contrast, summer maximum temperatures generally reduce yields across all crops except finger millet, which thrives due to its heat tolerance. Monsoon rainfall boosts the yields of pearl millet, although excessive rainfall during the monsoon season increases downside risks for maize and rice. Evapotranspiration shows mixed effects, while wind speed tends to negatively affect yields, especially during the summer and monsoon seasons. Additionally, the study finds that excessive irrigation can harm rainfed crops like maize and pearl millet, while technological advancements such as HYV seeds and fertilisers positively impact yields. These findings underscore the urgent need to promote climate-resilient crop varieties, restructure irrigation subsidies and provide targeted support to smallholder farmers to enhance food security in the face of increasingly erratic seasonal conditions
The Taylor Rule and Inflation Targeting in Moldova
Get PDFThis paper analyzes the implementation, effectiveness, and challenges of the inflation targeting framework in the Republic of Moldova. It explores the theoretical foundations of inflation targeting, reviews Moldova’s historical transition from high and volatile inflation to a structured monetary policy framework, and examines the National Bank of Moldova's strategies for achieving price stability. Empirical analysis of policy performance, including Taylor Rule estimates and responses to economic shocks, is presented. The study highlights the strengths of inflation targeting, such as enhanced credibility and anchored inflation expectations, while also addressing challenges related to external shocks, structural constraints, and data limitations. Finally, the paper provides perspectives for improving Moldova’s monetary policy framework, emphasizing forecasting, communication, and institutional capacity, thereby contributing to sustainable economic stability and growth
Prefix-Based Collection Auction: A Mechanism against Market Power and Collusion
Get PDFWe introduce a new collection auction mechanism for selling multiple identical
items to a single winner—the Prefix-Based Collection Auction. The auction restricts
the winner to a prefix of their bids and imposes a payment rule based on both an
internal prefix sum and an external second price. This dual structure offers strong
protection against both market power and bidder collusion, while maintaining intuitive and truthful bidding behavior. The mechanism is robust, simple to implement,
and has potential applications in art-collection markets, online advertising, and other
environments where bundle demand is critical