60853 research outputs found
Sort by
Equilibrium in Keynes: A Note
Get PDFThis paper investigates the elusive notion of equilibrium in Keynes’s General Theory and its implications for subsequent interpretations of his work. Through a formal setup of the core relationships in the first eighteen chapters of the book, I show that Keynes’s model allows for multiple equilibria that critically depend on fixed nominal wages, expectations and confidence. While this structure resembles the IS-LM model, it diverges in its treatment of price flexibility, speculative motives in money demand, and the central role of expectations and confidence. The paper evaluates four possible interpretations of the General Theory, each arising from a different understanding of the notion of equilibrium in Keynes: (1) the neoclassical synthesis view, which relies on nominal wage rigidity; (2) a Tobinian view, in which macroeconomic equilibrium is unique but potentially unstable; (3) a social-norms view, where real rigidities à la Akerlof prevent wage adjustments and therefore multiple equilibria are possible; and (4) a Minskian interpretation that denies the existence of equilibrium altogether. The first interpretation is incompatible with the view expressed by Keynes in the General Theory. The other three, while clearly distinct from each other, are all compatible with Keynes’s argument—although they appear with varying degrees of clarity in the book
The FREEDOM Framework: Linking Multi-Alignment Diplomacy to Macroeconomic Resilience in India
Get PDFThis paper introduces the FREEDOM Framework—a strategic macroeconomic model that integrates India’s multi-alignment diplomacy with Milton Friedman’s monetarist principles. It argues that diplomatic capital, defined as the trust and credibility accumulated through diverse international partnerships, functions as a stabilizing economic resource. By mapping seven key dimensions—Foreign Exchange stability, Resource security, Export competitiveness, Expectations management, Deficit control, Open markets, and Monetary discipline—the framework demonstrates how India’s foreign policy choices directly influence macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation control, exchange rate stability, and growth resilience.
Drawing on Friedman’s emphasis on expectations and credibility, the paper shows that India’s diplomatic engagements act as transmission channels for macroeconomic stability. Strategic energy diplomacy, diversified trade agreements, and multilateral credibility are shown to anchor inflation expectations, attract investment, and buffer external shocks. The FREEDOM compass metaphor positions diplomacy as a directional tool for navigating global volatility, reinforcing that foreign policy is not peripheral but central to economic strategy.
Ultimately, the study offers a multidimensional lens for policymakers, suggesting that sustaining macroeconomic resilience in India requires not only internal discipline but also the strategic deployment of diplomatic capital as a modern complement to monetary polic
AI and the irreplaceability of human effort: an inquiry into labor economies and ethics
Get PDFArtificial intelligence is being touted more and more as something that will supplant human labor, something that inspires some but terrifies most. Giant tech giants are driving this, presenting automation as something inevitable and even desirable. But one would still like to know: can one really dispense with human effort in maintaining the tempo of civilization? This essay contends that while AI can boost productivity and reshape markets, substituting fully for human labor is not feasible or desirable on ethical bases.
The analysis is a mix of three arguments. At the labor economies level, the analysis looks at how automation destroys forms of employment, especially in informal and gig economies where dignity and stability are already weak. At the market level, it asks if AI creates truly new demand or only redistributes value, raising questions about the possibility of limitless growth by means of automatization. At the moral level, it considers dignity, autonomy, and value of service, knowing that work is not merely a way of making a living but also a path of meaning and continuity.
The implications are that human labor is more than a production factor but the foundation of civilization. Care, ritual, and creativity are key to advancement in ways that are not replicable by machines. To turn a blind eye to facts is to risk hollowing out economies and societies. The paper ends by advocating for a balanced way where AI arrives as a tool that supplements and does not substitute human work
From rubble to recovery: capital, labor, and gender in the “economic miracles” of Germany and Japan
Get PDFThis paper analyzes the postwar economic growth of Germany and Japan using the Solow Growth Model and its extensions. By examining historical data on savings, investment, capital accumulation, and labor force dynamics, the study identifies the mechanisms behind rapid convergence toward steady-state output. Extending the model to incorporate human capital and labor heterogeneity, it highlights the role of mass education and gender inclusion in sustaining growth. Differences in female labor participation across East and West Germany and Japan are analyzed using the feminization U-hypothesis. The paper also considers political background and cultural factors shaping labor and capital outcomes. It concludes with policy recommendations for modern developing economies, drawn from the postwar experiences of Germany and Japan, emphasizing inclusive labor use, human capital investment, institutional credibility, and capital deepening
Motivations behind Peer-to-Peer (Counter-)Punishment in Public Goods Games: An Experiment
Get PDFIt is well-known that efficiency often fails to improve in public goods games with peer-to-peer punishment when counter-punishment is possible. This paper experimentally demonstrates, for the first time, that the effects of sanctioning institutions are modest, regardless of the decision-making format (individual or team). In the “team” conditions, subjects are randomly assigned to teams of three, and make joint decisions through communication. Their dialogue provides valuable insights into the motivations behind (counter-)punishment, as well as the resulting behavioral effects. A coding exercise reveals that first-order punishments (and counter-punishments) are primarily emotional responses to peers’ low contributions (and first-order punishments, respectively)
The Effect of Aggregation on Seasonal Cointegration in Mixed Frequency data
Get PDFEconomic time series often show a strong persistency as well as seasonal variations that are appropri
ately modelled using seasonal unit root models in addition to deterministic components. In many cases
di¤erent variables within a vector time series are driven by identical common trends and cycles leading to
cointegration.
This paper investigates the consequences for the properties of vector processes when some components
are aggregated in time. This may involve moving from a fully observed system that is seasonally cointegrated
at a frequency !k = 2 k=S with k = 1;:::;(S 1)=2 where S is the number of seasons per year, to a system
with time series sampled at high sampling rate (HSR) observed for S seasons per year and time series with
low sampling rate (LSR) observed SA seasons per year, such that SA = S=Q and Q is an integer.
The (partial) aggregation has implications on the unit root and cointegration properties: Aggregation
potentially shifts the frequency of the unit roots. This may lead to an aliasing e¤ect wherein common cycles
to di¤erent unit roots become aligned and cannot be separated any more, in turn impacting cointegrating
relations.
This paper uses the triangular systems representations in the bivariate case as well as the state space
framework (in a general setting) to investigate the e¤ect of aggregation on the unit root properties of
multivariate time series.
The main results indicate under which assumptions and in which situations the analysis of the integration
and cointegration properties of time series with mixed sampling rate relates to the same properties of the
underyling data generating process. The results also discuss full aggregation of all components. These results
lead to the proposal of an e¤ective econometric strategy for detecting cointegration at the various sampling
rates, as is demonstrated in a simulation exercise. Finally an empirical application with monthly data of
arrivals and departures of the Mallorca Airport, also illustrate the ndings collected in the present work
Mining Exploration Business Valuation Simulations with Global VMS Deposits Database
Get PDFThis paper presents an example of simulating financial economics for a mining exploration project based on stylized assumptions and real global data. The data comprise all the volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits of the world, according to a 2009 public report from the United States Geological Survey, which contains a database of grade and tonnage models for such deposits. The grade and tonnage parameters help estimate the gross metal value of the deposits, according to some simplifying assumptions. The paper further makes assumptions about the costs and benefits of finding each deposit in the global database. Then it calculates the distributions of economic returns for different approaches to the mining exploration business
Can We Measure from the Bottom Up? Constructing an Index of Gas Station Infrastructure to Identify Regional Economic Development
Get PDFWe develop a methodology that leverages open-source geospatial data on fuel station infrastructure and related services to construct the Gas Station Index (GSI), a novel indicator that augments official and alternative measures of regional economic development. Gas stations serve as consumer-facing infrastructure nodes, and their density and quality reflect local demand, purchasing power, and mobility. Using data on 19,033 stations across 62 regions in nine European countries, the GSI explains 64% of the cross-regional variation in GDP per capita - a notable result for a single-variable indicator. Beyond its statistical fit, the GSI uncovers meaningful economic patterns. It reflects diminishing returns to infrastructure, consistent with core economic theory; it maps spatial inequality both visually and statistically, highlighting clusters of prosperity in capitals, port cities, transit corridors, and tourist destinations; and it classifies regional development typologies through bivariate LISA analysis. The unexplained variation underscores the structural differences between infrastructure-based indicator and GDP per capita, driven by sectoral specialization, mobility patterns, and informal economic activity. The GSI should therefore be viewed not as a substitute for national accounts, but as a complementary indicator particularly relevant at the subnational level. Compared to existing indicators, it offers distinct advantages: GDP per capita is delayed and masks heterogeneity, while night-time lights suffer from saturation and rural undercoverage. By contrast, the GSI provides a ground-level, behaviorally grounded, and real-time measure of economic development. By capturing both infrastructure and consumption dynamics, it complements—and in certain respects surpasses—conventional indicators in tracing regional growth trajectories and spatial inequality
The Reformulation of OxyContin and Availability of Substance Use Treatment Facilities in the United States
Get PDFI examine how the substance use treatment sector responded to the abuse-deterrent reformulation of OxyContin, which contributed to a shift from prescription opioid misuse to heroin and synthetic opioids. First, I document a national increase in substance use treatment facilities after the reformulation and a shift toward outpatient-only care. Medication-assisted treatment with buprenorphine and naltrexone grew strongly throughout the first and second waves of the opioid crisis, while opioid treatment programs providing methadone increased relatively modestly after the reformulation. To isolate the role of exposure to OxyContin’s reformulation, I use variation in states’ pre-reformulation OxyContin misuse rates in a continuous difference-in-differences design. I find that pre-reformulation misuse rates are associated with larger increases in substance use treatment facilities after the reformulation, particularly outpatient-only facilities, with limited evidence misuse rates the availability of medication-assisted treatment services or inpatient care across states. Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act was associated with more substance use treatment facilities and this effect was stronger in states with higher misuse rates, while the expansion of substance use treatment facilities was lower in states with certificate-of-need laws, highlighting the importance of insurance and regulatory barriers in treatment access. Back-of-the envelope estimates suggest the additional SUT facilities averted 2,700-7,800 overdose deaths between 2011 and 2019, corresponding to a value of $36-102 billion
The effective policy framework that helped Greek banks to decrease non-performing loans ratio to single digits.
Get PDFIn early 2010, Greece's financial condition was unsustainable, necessitating the implementation of ambitious economic adjustment programs. The fiscal austerity measures launched by the Greek government in agreement with its official creditors ( IMF, ECB and European member states) led to a rather deep recession as GDP dropped by 25% and unemployment peaked at 25%. Households' income, corporations’ profit, as well as their debt-paying ability decreased significantly leading to a huge amount of non-performing loans (NPLs). This paper provides a complete analysis of the measures introduced by the Greek government to stabilize Greek banks and reduce NPLs ratio at single digits