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Revisiting Central Bank Independence in the World: An Extended Dataset
Get PDFHow has central bank independence (CBI) changed over time and across countries? This paper introduces the most comprehensive dataset on de jure CBI, including country-year observations covering 192 countries between 1970 and 2023. The dataset identifies statutory reforms affecting CBI, their direction, and codes four dimensions of CBI (personnel independence, central bank’s objectives, policy formulation, and limits on lending). It includes two CBI indices and a regional diffusion variable. The broader coverage of this dataset has important implications. First, although this dataset coding decisions are generally consistent with previous research, countries included only in this dataset tend to have lower CBI and differ in other dimensions with those previously coded. This suggests that systematically missing data in other data sources may have effects on inferences. Second, extended temporal coverage allows analyzing the evolution of central bank governance for more than a decade since the Global Financial Crisis. Finally, the data show that although there is a global tendency towards more CBI, there is significant variance across and within regions, including numerous reforms reducing CBI in the past two decades. This data contribution is important for research beyond the study of monetary institutions and their effects
Impact de Trump 2.0 sur l'Afrique subsaharienne
Get PDFAs Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratising sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts, for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA
Impact of Trump 2.0 on Sub-Saharan Africa
Get PDFAs Trump takes aim at global norms and institutions, the question of what parts of the post-Cold War order can be saved, and for whom, needs urgent attention. Moving away from these positions will require major changes. Trump 2.0 has generated optimism in Africa. South Africa, in particular, was initially optimistic. But later, bilateral relations with South Africa deteriorated as the Trump administration, including his economic advisor, South African-born Elon Musk, openly sided with the white SA establishment, at least for the next four years. Prospects for democratic transitions were also dashed, as Trump did not care about democratizing sub-Saharan Africa (SSA),but rather supported African autocracies, such as in Biya's Cameroon, Gnassingbé's Togo, and the Central African Republic and Ivory Coast. Trump's intention to dismantle USAid threw all its contractors into disarray. Fear, pain and hunger were the terrible consequences of US funding cuts,for example in Kenya and war-torn Sudan. The US was the largest ODA donor in SSA. In fiscal year 2023/2024, the US had donated nearly $3.7 billion. Jihadism in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and beyond is likely to intensify and spread. The isolationist US Africa policy under Trump could further reduce Western influence. Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs and withdrawal from multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), have affected developing countries' access to the US market. This is particularly true in SSA, which relies heavily on exports of commodities, textiles and manufactured goods to the US market. The imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminium and other manufactured goods further increased the cost of exports from these countries, leading to reduced competitiveness and a decline in trade volumes. African countries benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) have seen their benefits diminish, as the Trump administration has de-prioritised AGOA
Modelling Sustainable Energy Transition in BRICS+ Countries: A Smoothed Common Correlated Effects Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression Approach
Get PDFThe collective goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the coming decades has sparked considerable debate in recent years. The nature of the energy transition in fossil fuel-dependent economies suggests the presence of both implicit and explicit gaps in country-level commitments to the transition. Utilizing data from 1996 to 2019 from the BRICS+ bloc, this study investigates the heterogeneous effects of key economic and environmental factors on energy transition across the distribution of energy transition levels using a smoothed quantile instrumental variable regression model with common correlated effects (CCE) adjustments. The analysis incorporates macroeconomic, environmental and governance variables, while addressing endogeneity through instrumental variables, such as fossil fuel reserves and temperature anomalies. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in the relationships across quantiles. Specifically, CO2 emissions exhibit a consistently negative impact on energy transition, with the effect fluctuating across the distribution. GDP and population growth negatively influence energy transition, with stronger effects at higher quantiles, indicating structural constraints in high-transition countries. Notably, the heterogeneity of inflation effects, though insignificant, suggests dynamic economic pressures at varying energy transition levels. These findings underline the importance of targeted, quantile-specific policy interventions to accelerate energy transition, emphasizing decarbonization and market reforms. The CCE adjustments ensure robustness by accounting for cross-sectional dependence, and sensitivity analyses confirm the validity of the results. This study contributes to the growing literature on sustainable energy by providing novel insights into the distributional dynamics of energy transition drivers
Exploring Intentions to Convert into Organic Farming in Small-Scale Agriculture: Social Embeddedness in Extended Theory of Planned Behaviour Framework
Get PDFCONTEXT. The European Union actively supports and promotes the development of more sustainable and resilient farming systems and contributes to the significant expansion of organic farming. Despite the considerable growth of the organic agricultural sector, this process faces several structural challenges, especially in countries with fragmented agriculture, such as Romania, where small-scale farming dominates. Small-scale farmers are quite reluctant to transition to organic farming even despite financial incentives.
OBJECTIVE. This study aims to understand small-scale farmers’ reluctance to adopt organic farming by combining embeddedness theory, which links economic activities to social structures, with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB).
METHODS. A survey of 150 small-scale farms in Romania's Centru region was conducted in 2023 using semi-structured face-to-face questionnaires. The research framework combines embeddedness theory and the extended TPB using structural equation modelling and simultaneous confirmatory factor analysis.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS. It was demonstrated that network embeddedness exerts the most significant influence on pro-ecological behavioural intentions when considered in the context of other TPB constructs. However, this positive impact is partially offset by the negative impact of embeddedness at the farm level. Our research results suggest that changing the approach of small-scale farmers to organic farming requires strengthening network embeddedness through workshops, training sessions, rallies, and meetings that would highlight the benefits of organic farming.
SIGNIFICANCE. We shed more light on the behavioural drivers of adopting organic practices in small-scale framing and argue that the relational embeddedness construct represents a significant extension of the TPB framework for agri-environmental studies
Estimating the Size and Dynamics of Informal Economy in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Countries: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach
Get PDFThis paper uses a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that deterministically accounts for the trends among time-series variables to estimate the size of the informal economy for 15 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from 1990 to 2019. Among the countries, Mauritius, on average, maintains the smallest informal economy at 23 percent of GDP, followed by South Africa, averaging 25 percent of GDP, while the largest informal economies as a percent of GDP are Zimbabwe and Tanzania at 60.8 percent and 53 percent, respectively. In addition, this paper explores the determinants of this informal economy measure using a panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR), and the nonlinear relationships among dependent variables from the impulse-response functions show that, on average, countries with larger real GDPs, higher levels of control of corruption, higher regulatory barriers, and higher levels of economic freedom have smaller informal economies. While countries with higher tax burdens, on average, exhibit increasing informal economies. Hence, this confirms the dynamics of informality vary across SADC countries, and their governments should relax some restrictions, enforcements, and projections based on the dynamics of the informal sectors
Economic crises in Latin America
Get PDFThis article analyzes economic crises in Latin America (LA) from the 1970s to the 2000s, focusing on two major waves: the "lost decade" of the 1980s and the crises of the 1990s and early 2000s. Both waves followed periods of strong capital inflows, a common feature in developing countries facing financial turmoil. LA’s early integration into international capital markets and frequent crises offer a unique opportunity for comparative analysis. The paper also explores the absence of major crises during the early 2000s, despite intensified capital inflows, and examines the role of fiscal policy and sound macroeconomic management in mitigating vulnerabilities
Investigating the Relationship of eWOM with Consumers’ Purchase Intentions: Moderating Role of Website Characteristics
Get PDFThe rapid advancement in internet technologies has led to a surge in electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) phenomena, particularly through online reviews. This study investigates the relationship between review characteristics and consumer purchase intentions, with a specific focus on the moderating role of website characteristics. Data were collected from 240 respondents via a structured questionnaire and analyzed using regression techniques. Results reveal that information characteristics and reviewer characteristics significantly influence purchase intentions. Additionally, website characteristics moderate these relationships, enhancing or diminishing their effects. These findings underscore the importance of managing review and website attributes to influence consumer behavior. Implications for marketers and online retailers are discussed, highlighting strategies to optimize e-WOM and website design to drive purchase intentions
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with GARCH for Short-Term Interest Rates
Get PDFThis paper introduces a novel Bayesian time series model that combines the nonparametric features of an infinite hidden Markov model with the volatility persistence captured by the GARCH framework, to effectively model and forecast short-term interest rates. When applied to US 3-month Treasury bill rates, the GARCH-IHMM reveals both structural and persistent changes in volatility, thereby enhancing the accuracy of density forecasts compared to existing benchmark models. Out-of-sample evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of our model in density forecasts and in capturing volatility dynamics due to its adaptivity to different macroeconomic environments
Customer Satisfaction in Home Delivery Service in Vietnam: The Impact of Service Quality, Perceived Value, and the Mediating Role of Trust
Get PDFIn the rapidly expanding global e-commerce landscape, ensuring customer satisfaction in home delivery services has become a critical priority, particularly in emerging economies like Vietnam. High-quality delivery services, enhanced perceived value, and strengthened customer trust are key drivers shaping satisfaction levels. This study investigates the relationships between service quality, perceived value, and customer satisfaction, with trust playing a mediating role. Using data from an online survey of 385 respondents in Binh Duong province - one of Vietnam's prominent industrial and economic hubs, the study employs Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS 4 for analysis. The findings reveal that service quality, perceived value, and trust significantly and positively influence customer satisfaction, with trust acting as a powerful mediator. By extending the SERVQUAL model to include perceived value and grounding the analysis in Expectation Disconfirmation Theory (EDT), this study offers meaningful insights for home delivery service providers. The results highlight actionable strategies to optimize service performance, build trust, and elevate customer experiences in the competitive e-commerce market