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Nowcasting Malagasy real GDP using energy data: a MIDAS approach
Get PDFIn this paper, we investigate the predictive power of petroleum consumption for Malagasy real GDP using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework over the period 2007-2024. While GDP data are available at a quarterly frequency, petroleum consumption is observed monthly and disaggregated by sectoral use and product type. We use this high-frequency disaggregated data to identify which components deliver the strongest nowcasting performance. Our results show that, at the sectoral level, transportation, aviation and bunkers consistently deliver the most accurate GDP nowcasts over the sample period. The best-performing product-level specifications correspond precisely to the fuels predominantly used in these sectors, namely, gas oil, super-unleaded petrol, aviation gasoline, and jet fuel. The aggregate measure of total petroleum consumption also yields competitive forecasting accuracy across specifications. This supports its use as a broad high-frequency indicator of economic activity. Our findings suggest that forecasters of Madagascar’s GDP can significantly improve predictive accuracy by using appropriately disaggregated energy data, particularly from sectoral categories linked to mobility and trade
Систематизация процессов импортозависимости регионов Приволжского федерального округа
Get PDFЦелью работы является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа.
Методическую основу исследования определяет инструментарий идентификации критического импорта в рамках многоаспектной его аутентификации: объемы импорта, доля его участия в создании добавленной стоимости конечного продукта региона, страновая принадлежность. Объектом исследования выступают субъекты Приволжского федерального округа РФ. Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов ПФО, а особенности его влияния на перспективы устойчивого развития регионов Приволжского федерального округа.
The aim of the work is to develop methodological tools for the identification of critically important commodity items imported from abroad.
The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its multidimensional authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The subjects of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation are the object of the study. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Volga Federal District, and the specifics of its impact on the prospects for sustainable development of the regions of the Volga Federal District
This Candidate is [MASK]. Prompt-based Sentiment Extraction and Reference Letters
Get PDFI propose a relatively simple way to deploy pre-trained large language models (LLMs) in order to extract sentiment and other useful features from text data. The method, which I refer to as prompt-based sentiment extraction, offers multiple advantages over other methods used in economics and finance. In particular, it accepts the text input as is (without preprocessing) and produces a sentiment score that has a probability interpretation. Unlike other LLM-based approaches, it does not require any fine-tuning or labeled data. I apply my prompt-based strategy to a hand-collected corpus of confidential reference letters (RLs). I show that the sentiment contents of RLs are clearly reflected in job market outcomes. Candidates with higher average sentiment in their RLs perform markedly better regardless of the measure of success chosen. Moreover, I show that sentiment dispersion among letter writers negatively affects the job market candidate’s performance. I compare my sentiment extraction approach to other commonly used methods for sentiment analysis: ‘bag-of-words’ approaches, fine-tuned language models, and querying advanced chatbots. No other method can fully reproduce the results obtained by prompt-based sentiment extraction. Finally, I slightly modify the method to obtain ‘gendered’ sentiment scores (as in Eberhardt et al., 2023). I show that RLs written for female candidates emphasize ‘grindstone’ personality traits, whereas male candidates’ letters emphasize ‘standout’ traits. These gender differences negatively affect women’s job market outcomes
The Success Rate Illusion: How Misguided Optimization Undermines Systematic Hedging Strategies
Get PDFThis pedagogical study presents a comprehensive framework for systematic optimization of hedging trading strategies across diverse market regimes. We demonstrate that traditional parameter selection approaches often yield suboptimal results due to constrained search spaces, while systematic exploration reveals non-intuitive optimal configurations. Using a modified geometric Brownian motion process with regime-specific parameters, we generate synthetic market data across six distinct regimes and test a simultaneous long-short hedging strategy with ATR-based position sizing. Our multi-seed validation approach ensures statistical robustness, revealing that optimal parameters (stop-loss multiplier: 1.37, take-profit multiplier: 1.50) achieve 97.2\% hedging success rate, significantly outperforming intuitively selected parameters.
This research emphasizes the importance of broad parameter exploration, proper statistical validation, and the fundamental tradeoff between success frequency and profit magnitude in systematic trading.
\textbf{At the same time and even more importantly pragmatically, our analysis reveals a more fundamental methodological insight:} successful optimization requires alignment between objective functions and practical goals.
While we achieved ``attractive'' success rates, this study demonstrates how even rigorous optimization can yield practically suboptimal results when objectives mismatch real-world priorities. Because what matters is not frequency of success alone, but the fundamental relationship between profit magnitude and loss magnitude across the strategy's entire return distribution.
\textbf{Disclaimer:} This research represents academic simulation work for educational purposes only. All trading involves substantial risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results
Dynamic Spatial Treatment Effects and Network Fragility: Theory and Evidence from European Banking
Get PDFThis paper develops and empirically implements a continuous functional framework for analyzing systemic risk in financial networks, building on the dynamic spatial treatment effect methodology established in \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}. We extend the Navier-Stokes-based approach from \citet{kikuchi2024navier} to characterize contagion dynamics in the European banking system through the spectral properties of network evolution operators. Using high-quality bilateral exposure data from the European Banking Authority Transparency Exercise (2014-2023), we estimate the causal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on network fragility using spatial difference-in-differences methods adapted from \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}. Our empirical analysis reveals that COVID-19 elevated network fragility, measured by the algebraic connectivity of the system Laplacian, by 26.9\% above pre-pandemic levels (95\% CI: [7.4\%, 46.5\%], p0.05), with effects persisting through 2023. Paradoxically, this occurred despite a 46\% reduction in the number of banks, demonstrating that consolidation increased systemic vulnerability by intensifying interconnectedness—consistent with theoretical predictions from continuous spatial dynamics. Our findings validate the key predictions from \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}: treatment effects amplify over time through spatial spillovers, consolidation increases fragility when coupling strength rises, and systems exhibit structural hysteresis preventing automatic reversion to pre-shock equilibria. The results demonstrate the empirical relevance of continuous functional methods for financial stability analysis and provide new insights for macroprudential policy design. We propose network-based capital requirements targeting spectral centrality and stress testing frameworks incorporating diffusion dynamics to address the coupling externalities identified in our analysis
Platforms, information asymmetry and leakage: why disintermediation may not hurt (so much) after all
Get PDFAsymmetric information in markets puts economic transactions at risk, but it may also provide the opportunity for value creation through digital platforms. This paper develops a typology of digital platforms based on the specific information asymmetries they address. We distinguish three archetypes (search platforms, enforcement platforms, and full-service matchmakers) each substituting for different missing market functions. This typology reveals that platforms do not uniformly reduce information asymmetries but rather substitute for specific missing market functions, and that these substitutions determine both their value proposition and vulnerability to disintermediation. Using a formal model of expert service markets, we show how diagnostic and enforcement roles interact when users can bypass the platform after matching. The analysis demonstrates that disintermediation can increase platform value by expanding the user base and strengthening network effects. Subscription fees outperform transaction fees when diagnostic uncertainty dominates, as they monetize matching value while tolerating selective leakage. Platforms’ strategic responses to disintermediation thus depend not on creating artificial lock-in but on addressing the market failures that justify their existence
Education, Human Capital, and Cultural Contexts in Economic Transformation Processes
Get PDFThis paper explores the complex interconnections between education,
human capital formation, and cultural contexts in shaping economic
transformation processes. Building on both classical and contemporary
theories of human capital, the study argues that education is not only
a driver of productivity and innovation but also a social institution
deeply embedded in cultural and institutional frameworks. Using a
mixed-methods approach, the analysis combines cross-country statistical
data with comparative case studies of Finland, South Korea, Vietnam,
and Ghana to examine how cultural values and governance structures
mediate the outcomes of educational investment. The results reveal that
the effectiveness of education in driving transformation depends on its
alignment with societal values and institutional capacity. Countries
where education systems reflect shared cultural norms—such as
discipline, equality, and respect for knowledge—demonstrate higher
returns in innovation and structural diversification. Conversely,
nations where formal education remains detached from local contexts
experience limited developmental impact, even when resources are
substantial. The study concludes that education-led transformation
requires cultural adaptability, institutional integrity, and long-term
policy coherence. By integrating economic, cultural, and institutional
dimensions, this research contributes to a more comprehensive
understanding of how education functions as both a catalyst for growth
and a mechanism of social cohesion in the process of economic
transformation
A Unified Axiomatic Theory of Microeconomics: Market Structure and Equilibrium
Get PDFWe propose a unified microeconomic theory that takes the behavioral rules of firms in real markets as the endogenous mechanism through which market structures are generated, replacing the standard practice of imposing perfect competition, monopoly, and other market forms as exogenous assumptions. Under a set of minimal axioms (consumer utility maximization, firm profit maximization, firm entry/exit mechanisms, and market clearing) and by introducing realistic cost and demand structures (firm-level cost heterogeneity, fixed costs, and demand elasticity, among others), pricing behavior and market structures long treated as exogenous (such as perfect competition and monopoly) are derived endogenously as equilibrium outcomes of firms' profit-maximizing behavior. Within a single framework, the theory nests traditional cost and marginal analysis, game-theoretic approaches to imperfect competition, and the Walrasian general equilibrium model; different regions of the parameter space naturally yield equilibrium outcomes corresponding to perfect competition, monopoly, monopolistic competition, and competitive-fringe structures. Our analysis shows that perfect competition is only a highly symmetric and intrinsically unstable equilibrium point: even small cost differences suffice to push the system toward more common monopoly or oligopoly configurations, while positive feedback mechanisms render these structures stable, helping to explain why market power is not easily competed away. Under empirically observable premises, the theory coherently derives the principal market forms and, in doing so, clarifies the domains of applicability of various classic models. It can also be used to predict which market structures industries will evolve toward under given conditions, providing a unified and operational theoretical foundation for empirical research, industrial policy, and firms' business and competitive strategy decision-making
할당관세 정책이 농산물 소매가격에 미치는 인과적 영향
Get PDFThis study examines the causal effect of Korea's Tariff-Rate Quota on consumer price reduction and stabilization, in contrast to previous foreign studies that focused on the domestic producer price support effects of Tariff-Rate Quotas. Using daily retail price data for 40 agricultural products from 2021 to 2025, this study analyze retail price changes in response to the intensity of tariff reductions using the Local Projection Difference-in-Differences method. The results indicate that while no significant price reduction was observed for leafy and root vegetables, fruits exhibited a causal retail price decline of approximately 0.9% for every one percentage point reduction in tariff rates. This implies that the tariff pass-through rate for fruits is approximately 90%. These findings suggest that when the policy objective is price stabilization, priority consideration should be given to applying Tariff-Rate Quotas to fruits
La ley del descenso tendencial de la tasa de ganancia: Evidencia empírica para la economía española
Get PDFThis article examines the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall in the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2024, considering the organic composition of capital and the rate of surplus value as central variables. Its aim is to determine whether this law, formulated by Marx in Capital (Vol. III), continues to operate in the contemporary context. The methodology consists of transforming orthodox macroeconomic categories derived from the Spanish National Accounts (CNE), available in BDMACRO, into Marxist variables: constant capital (c), variable capital (v), and surplus value (pv). Based on these, historical series of the organic composition of capital (q), the rate of surplus value (pv'), and the rate of profit (g') are constructed, adjusted to constant prices to ensure temporal coherence and comparability. The results show a sustained increase in q and a slight decrease in pv', generating a tendential decline in g' with cyclical fluctuations associated with specific crises. The conclusions empirically confirm the validity of the law in Spain, highlighting the historical limits of capitalism and providing quantitative evidence on the structural dynamics of profitability