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The ex-post macroeconomic evaluation of the 2014-2020 European Social Fund, Youth Employment Initiative and REACT-EU labour market interventions
Full text linkWe provide a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the 2014-2020 European Social Fund, the Youth Employment Initiative and the labour market interventions of the REACT-EU programme, using data updated to the end of 2023. We use the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO, modified to include endogenous labour force participation, to analyse the impact of nearly €110 billion in total, showing how GDP, employment, wages and various measures of inequality respond to the policies. The results suggest that the European labour market policy has a substantial positive impact on the regional economies of the Union and on the labour force, with long-lasting positive effects on GDP and employment, and a reduction in regional disparities and macroeconomic educational mismatches
Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Transition
Full text linkWe examine the macroeconomic effects of the energy transition, focusing on the impact of oil prices on GDP, productivity and inflation. We find that energy dependence on fossil fuels increases vulnerability to oil price shocks, negatively affecting Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Using the Solow decomposition and including energy as part of the capital stock, we find two key effects: The Price and Scale Effect, in which higher energy prices increase production costs and reduce TFP; and The Recomposition Effect, in which greater use of domestic renewables boosts TFP by reducing reliance on non-renewable imports. Our findings for Chile between 2001 and 2019 the TFP adjustment for energy factors provides a complementary and enriched view of productivity, especially in periods or contexts with high volatility in energy consumption or prices. Finally, using a New-Keynesian DSGE model calibrated for Chile, we examine the macroeconomic consequences of the energy transition. A counterfactual scenario shows that, without diversification of the energy matrix, the economic impact of higher oil prices would have been more severe, with larger GDP declines, higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and a steeper fall in TFP, highlighting the benefits of Chile's shift to a more renewable energy matrix
AI Agents in the Advertising Industry
Full text linkThis research investigates how artificial intelligence (AI) agents function in the advertising sector. It focuses on the transformation, applications, benefits, and concerns of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the new era of marketing. The research used secondary data from industry reports, academic studies and case studies, on how AI agent enhances ad targeting, campaign optimization, personalization, and predictive analysis.
The main conclusions show that AI agents significantly increase productivity and customer engagement, but there are still issues with algorithmic biases and data privacy. The study highlights the need for a well-rounded strategy for implementing AI, supporting both innovation and moral considerations. To improve the advertising ecosystem, these insights are meant to help marketers and legislators use AI responsibly
Shades of inflation targeting: insights from fractional integration
Full text linkIn this paper, we propose a novel approach to classifying inflation-targeting (IT) economies based on fractionally integrated processes. Motivated by the rising prevalence and diversity of IT strategies, we leverage variation in the persistence of inflation rate series to identify four de facto IT strategies, or ‘shades’ of IT. Moving from negative orders of fractional integration, indicating anti-persistent behaviour, to more persistent long-memory processes, often associated with less credible policy frameworks, we classify countries into average IT, strict IT, flexible IT, and uncommitted IT categories. This framework sheds light on the differences between declarative and actual monetary policy strategies across 36 advanced and emerging market economies. Notably, we demonstrate that while most economies fall into the flexible IT category, extreme cases, including the uncommitted IT category, occur with marked frequency. Furthermore, we link our IT classification to institutional features of national monetary frameworks using ordinal probit models. The results suggest that differences across IT categories are related to variations in the maturity and stability of IT frameworks, with less pronounced connections to central bank independence and transparency
Proximité spatiale, mimétisme et développement entrepreneurial endogène en Afrique : un modèle théorique
Full text linkThis article analyzes the conditions for endogenous entrepreneurial development, understood as the transition from entrepreneurship by necessity to local entrepreneurship by opportunity. The theoretical model that we develop shows that the presence of foreign-owned companies does not hinder local entrepreneurship by opportunity, but rather stimulates it through mimicry, thus triggering a cumulative dynamic of endogenous entrepreneurial development. The spatial proximity linking potential local entrepreneurs and foreign companies produces a cognitive proximity that allows the former to switch to entrepreneurship by opportunity by imitating the latter. The State can support this dynamic through better coordination of reforms: macroeconomic measures (improvement of the business climate, promotion of foreign direct investment, minimum infrastructure) must precede microeconomic measures (strengthening entrepreneurial capacities, financial support)
Biased Information and Opinion Polarisation
Full text linkWhy do people form polarised opinions after receiving the same information? Why does disagreement persist even when public information is abundant? We show that a Bayesian model with potentially biased public signals can answer these questions. When agents are uncertain and disagree about the bias in the signals, persistent disagreement and opinion polarisation can readily emerge. This happens because uncertainty surrounding the bias Induces agents with diverse initial beliefs to form drastically different posterior estimates. Prolonged exposure to these signals can in some cases drive the agents' opinions further away from each other and also further away from the truth
Claudio Napoleoni e la critica del presente
Full text linkThis paper revisits Claudio Napoleoni’s critical legacy by engaging closely with Riccardo Bellofiore’s recent monograph and the broader corpus of Napoleoni’s writings. After arguing for Napoleoni’s status as a “contemporary classic,” it reconstructs his model of “pure” versus “historical” capitalism, showing how he locates rent extraction, alienation, and unproductive consumption at the heart of Italian economic dynamics. Building on his anthropological dialectic, the paper highlights Napoleoni’s vision of human emancipation as liberation “from” and “of” work—a shift from an economistic to a time autonomy paradigm. It then interrogates his ongoing self critique and methodological “back and forth,” which prevented theoretical closure but fueled an open ended critical practice. Turning to Bellofiore’s reinterpretation of Marx’s critique of political economy, the study questions the implicit use of counterfactuals in his comparative method and examines his meta theory of crisis centered on the falling rate of profit and its counter tendencies. Finally, the paper illustrates how integrating non Marxist social science—especially recent contributions on discretionary time, institutional design, and democratic enterprise governance—can enrich and update Napoleoni’s radical questions. In so doing, it proposes a truly interdisciplinary critique of present day capitalism
Transitory minerals fluctuations and the macroeconomy
Full text linkThis paper analyses the transitory relationship between minerals fluctuations and the macroeconomy in South Africa. This was achieved by isolating the cycle component of output of the minerals industry, together with output of disaggregated minerals and comparing their fluctuations with the cycle component of aggregate, or economy wide, output. The results show an insignificant, and predominantly countercyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Mining at transitory, or short term, periodicities. The results further show a positive, or procyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Chromium, Nickel, Other metals and quarrying, a mixed, and predominantly acyclical, relationship between aggregate output and output of Iron ore and Manganese, while they also show a negative, or countercyclical, relationship between aggregate, or economy wide, output and output of Coal, Copper, PGMs, Gold, Diamonds and Other non metals. The paper recommends a comprehensive determination of the temporal relationship between the minerals industry and various macroeconomic indicators to inform targeted policy decision making, where appropriate
The Optimality of Gradualism in Economies with Financial Markets
Full text linkWe develop a model economy with active financial markets in which a policymaker's adoption of a gradualistic approach constitutes a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In our model, the ex ante policy proposal influences the supply side of the economy, while the ex post policy action affects the demand side and shapes market equilibrium. When choosing policies, the policymaker internalizes the impact of her decisions on the precision of the firm-value signal. Moreover, financial markets provide a price signal that informs the government. The policymaker learns about the productivity shocks not only from firm-value performance signals but also from financial market prices. Access to information through both channels creates strong incentives for the policymaker to adopt a gradualistic approach in a time-consistent manner. Smaller policy steps yield more precise information about the productivity shock. These results hold robustly for both exogenous and endogenous information models
The Effect of Virtual Communication Channels on Human Behavior: A Literature Review
Full text linkAs workplaces and social interactions continue shifting toward virtual environments, virtual communication channels like video conferencing and text chats have become fundamental for collaboration and information exchange. However, these channels differ in their capacity to convey information, potentially shaping the impact of communication on behavior through various mechanisms, such as anonymity. This review examines 21 studies to assess how face-to-face and different virtual communication channels affect human behavior. The results suggest that relying exclusively on virtual communication can impair behavior in some situations, such as group cooperation or creativity. This issue can be mitigated using richer communication channels such as video or audio. However, especially in one-way messages, using richer communication channels that convey non-verbal information is not always advantageous and poses some risks. This illustrates the complexity of using different communication channels and highlights the need for future research. The insights from this review have important implications for organizations and individuals, emphasizing the crucial role of using appropriate communication channels in virtual environments. Effective channel selection can enhance cooperation and innovation, thereby contributing to the broader discussion on the future of work in remote and hybrid settings