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Unions, Growth and Inequality in a Schumpeterian Economy
Get PDFThis paper explores the dynamic effects of labor unions on economic growth and income inequality in a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous households and endogenous market structure. Income inequality arises from an unequal distribution of wealth and heterogeneous labor productivity. In the short run, increasing union bargaining power reduces both growth and inequality when the union is wage-oriented.
In the long run, stronger unions continue to lower inequality without affecting the steady-state growth rate. The model identifies the channels through which unions shape inequality: an income-share shift from asset income to labor income, wage compression, and changes in the wealth-wage correlation. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, we find that increasing union bargaining power significantly reduces long-run income inequality
Воспроизводство, Циклы и Критика СНС: Переосмысление Проблемы Воспроизводства
Get PDFThe monograph is devoted to a theoretical rethinking of the processes of simple, expanded, and contracted reproduction in a market economy and to a critique of the methodological foundations of the System of National Accounts (SNA). It shows that the inclusion of depreciation in gross product, as established in the SNA, is a methodological error that distorts macroeconomic indicators. As an alternative, the study substantiates the necessity of calculating gross product on the basis of net capital formation. On the basis of Smith’s Dogma and a reconstruction of K. Marx’s schemes, the conditions of equivalent exchange are formulated with clarifications: rent is treated as an independent form of income, profit is divided into consumed and saved parts, and depreciation is interpreted as redistribution rather than newly created value. Special attention is given to the problem of unfinished capital goods production. The key result of the research is the application of the Symmetric Model, which extends the principle of interaction between the two departments in Marx’s schemes to the entire set of branches, including households. The model is built on the methodological foundations of second-order dialectics, second-order cybernetics, and social constructivism. It helps explain the nature of cycles and crises as immanent forms of the reproduction process under the conditions of spontaneous self-regulation of a competitive economy. A separate chapter is devoted to reproduction under monopolization and financialization. It shows that the concentration of profit and the redistribution of resources in favor of the financial sector undermine the circular organization of the economy, distort the equivalence of exchange, and reinforce structural imbalances. Monopolization, inequality, and financialization are considered as factors that drive the market economy into systemic crisis. The concluding part of the monograph discusses the possibilities of mathematical formalization of reproduction processes. The Symmetric Model provides a foundation for constructing dynamic systems that describe interactions between sectors and factors of production. This enables stability analysis, the identification of endogenous sources of cycles, and the design of regulatory methods based on simulation modeling. The Appendices include AI Commentaries, which demonstrate new possibilities for analyzing and interpreting complex economic problems with the assistance of AI. This format combines rigorous theoretical argumentation with elements of additional verification and methodological validation provided by AI.
The work is intended for researchers and practitioners in economic theory, macroeconomics, and institutional analysis, as well as all those interested in reproduction, crises, and the reform of the SNA
Penalized regression methods for exchange rate forecasting: evidence from the U.S. dollar index
Get PDFThis paper examines the effectiveness of penalized regression techniques in forecasting exchange rate movements. Using daily data for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in 2016, we compare the performance of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with Ridge and Lasso regression models. The predictors include gold and silver returns, the S&P 500 Index, short- and long-term Treasury yields, and the EURUSD exchange rate. Results show that while OLS suffers from instability due to multicollinearity, Ridge regression improves coefficient stability and predictive accuracy. Lasso regression provides the best overall performance, with the highest explanatory power and the lowest prediction error, by selecting only the most relevant variables. These findings underscore the value of penalized regression in financial econometrics and highlight its potential for robust exchange rate forecasting
Discrepancias metodológicas en las estadísticas de inversión extranjera directa en Paraguay: Un análisis BCP–CEPAL
Get PDFThis article analyzes the methodological differences in the estimation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Paraguay, comparing the approaches used by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). It discusses how the statistical approach of the BCP—which incorporates the directional principle to calculate net FDI flows—contrasts with ECLAC’s approach based on assets and liabilities (gross FDI inflows). These methodological divergences have resulted in significant discrepancies in the reported FDI figures for Paraguay in recent years. The article examines concrete examples of these differences, their causes (such as the availability of definitive data), and their implications for economic analysis and policymaking. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of harmonizing criteria and understanding the definitions used when interpreting FDI statistics, in order to improve decision-making in international economics and investment policy
Counterfactual Simulation of Corporate Costs for Public Companies
Get PDFThis paper shows ways to simulate financial economic models for a mining exploration company. Two types of data are used: a time series of annual financial statements for a particular company and the stock exchange listing requirements for mining exploration companies in general. I describe how Kermode Resources Ltd.'s audited financial statements reflect different eras of leadership within the company over time and show how key corporate costs can vary as leadership and strategy change. I show a toy model of the costs of running a public company based on the constraints from the TSX Venture Exchange as a hypothetical company running on the edge of the listing requirements. I compare the bare-minimum cost profile of the hypothetical company under the listing requirements with similar corporate costs observed in Kermode Resources' financial statements over time
The Economics of Strategic Learning in Trade Wars: Evidence from the Trump -Xi Natural Experiment. -- Conditional Reciprocity and Behavioral Synchronization in US-China Trade Wars--
Get PDFHow do rival leaders learn to retaliate without trust or treaties? This paper exploits a rare “same leaders” natural experiment to trace strategic learning in bilateral economic conflict. We analyze two periods of the Trump–Xi trade war — “Trump–Xi 1.0” (2017 2020) and “Trump–Xi 2.0” (2025) — in order to isolate how experience shapes escalation in tariff retaliation. We introduce the Bilateral Learning Strength Index (BLSI). This novel metric captures two behavioral dimensions: conditional reciprocity—how predictably one side responds in kind—and behavioral synchronization—how closely rivals mirror each other’s timing and intensity across repeated trade actions.
Using data on 37,098 U.S.–China trade actions, we find that escalation in Trump–Xi 2.0 is substantially more constrained. Retaliatory responses are both more disciplined and far more synchronized, with a correlation coefficient of 0.884. These results suggest that through repeated interaction, adversarial leaders converge toward implicit rules of engagement—thresholds for retaliation that stabilize conflict dynamics even in settings devoid of formal treaties or mutual trust.
The framework has potential applications well beyond trade wars, including central bank coordination, oligopolistic competition, and international monetary spillovers—any environment in which actors engage repeatedly without binding agreements.
The BLSI also lays the groundwork for "Quantified Conflict Studies”, which could enable strategic forecasting, AI-assisted diplomacy, and real-time monitoring of conflict behavior in trust-deficient settings. By making strategic learning empirically measurable, this paper contributes to understanding not only how conflict escalates but also how it may evolve toward patterned stability rather than chaos
Minimum viable relationships (MVR): a relational readiness framework for African ventures
Get PDFStartups that import MVP-first logics into high-context African markets frequently stall not because products lack utility, but because ventures lack permission to operate. This paper proposes Minimum Viable Relationships (MVR) as a relational-readiness gate that precedes MVP in such contexts. MVR formalizes the conditions under which counterparties (customers, distributors, institutions) grant access without triggering social or organizational sanction. I define the construct, situate it against adjacent ideas (design thinking, diffusion of innovations), and argue that in markets where social sanction outweighs functional risk, relationship viability must be validated before product experiments can be considered valid.
The paper contributes three artifacts: (1) a seven-dimension MVR diagnostic with go/no-go thresholds that scores embeddedness, trust, guardian vouches, and channel permission; (2) an MVR Investment Memo template that enables funders to assess relational risk alongside financial and operational risk; and (3) a practical “design lab” of field tools for earning permission (pilot site commitments, data-sharing agreements, compliance pathways, and referral loops). Comparative case vignettes (e.g., SafeBoda, KOKO Networks, Wave vs. Dash, Sendy) illustrate how early permission artifacts correlate with durable traction.
The framework reframes early venture due diligence in Africa from “Can the product work?” to “Are we allowed to make it work here?” and offers testable propositions for founders, investors, and ecosystem builders. Limitations and avenues for empirical study are discussed
Prefix-Based Collection Auction: A Mechanism against Market Power and Collusion
Get PDFWe introduce a new collection auction mechanism for selling multiple identical
items to a single winner—the Prefix-Based Collection Auction. The auction restricts
the winner to a prefix of their bids and imposes a payment rule based on both an
internal prefix sum and an external second price. This dual structure offers strong
protection against both market power and bidder collusion, while maintaining intuitive and truthful bidding behavior. The mechanism is robust, simple to implement,
and has potential applications in art-collection markets, online advertising, and other
environments where bundle demand is critical
Endogenous Innovation in the Tech Cold War Era
Get PDFThis review revisits endogenous innovation as a co-evolutionary process of dynamic capabilities amidst the global techno-nationalist Tech Cold War. Integrating micro organisational and macro institutional perspectives, it articulates a triple-staged capability growth chain: technology exploration, market exploitation, and ecosystem orchestration to capture the innovation-oriented adaptive ambidexterity by which emerging tech firms transition from component supplier to supply-chain ecosystem orchestrator. Proposing a research agenda of innovation ecosystem, mega-science infrastructure, regional cluster, and organisational culture, this research offers an alternative analytical approach to endogenous innovation in fractured environments across firm, regional, and national dimensions
Monetary and fiscal policies as public goods: rethinking individual policies as well as their coordination for economic growth and employment
Get PDFThis chapter redefines monetary and fiscal policies through the lens of public goods, arguing that their non rival and economy wide benefits require coordinated management to foster inclusive economic growth and employment. Drawing on post Keynesian theory, it shows how money, as a social technology, and fiscal policy, through infrastructure and investment programmes, shape expectations, stimulate private investment, and enhance welfare. Integrating theoretical insights with historical and contemporary evidence, including the COVID 19 policy response, the chapter underscores the importance of strategic coordination to overcome uncertainty, stabilize long term investment and strengthen macroeconomic resilience. It challenges conventional approaches that treat policies in isolation, advocating instead their design as complementary instruments for sustainable development and shared prosperity