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Determinantes del cierre de proyectos de inversión pública en Perú: Un enfoque jerárquico ponderado
No full textThis study analyzes the determinants of public investment project completion in Peru, using a weighted hierarchical logit model to control for heterogeneity at the macro-regional and institutional function levels. The dependent variable is project completion, while the explanatory variables include selection in the Transitory Complementary Provision (DCT), financial progress, project typology, level of government, use of Form 12B, and the Multiannual Investment Programming (PMI).
The results show that financial progress and the use of Form 12B significantly increase the probability of project completion, with marginal effects of 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. In contrast, selection under the DCT and the existence of the PMI are associated with lower probabilities of completion, indicating that planning or resource allocation alone does not guarantee effective execution. Additionally, projects under the National and Regional governments have a higher likelihood of completion compared to local government projects, while smaller projects, such as PIP Minor and Investment Projects, face greater challenges in successfully reaching completion. IOARR projects, on the other hand, show completion outcomes comparable to PIP Major projects, without statistically significant differences.
These findings highlight the importance of financial execution, management tools, and institutional capacity for the success of public investment projects, providing relevant empirical evidence for improving project management and investment prioritization within the framework of Peru’s public investment system
Climate finance challenges and investment gaps: the case of Madagascar
Get PDFMadagascar, highly vulnerable to climate change, faces a significant climate finance deficit, securing only USD 385 million in 2022 against the USD 13.4 billion needed by 2030, as outlined in its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2). This study examines the barriers limiting Madagascar’s access to global climate finance, including weak institutional and technical capacities, a global bias favoring mitigation over adaptation, and heavy reliance on multilateral donors like the World Bank, which contributed 55\% of 2022 funding. Analysis of financial flows from 2015–2022 reveals volatile funding patterns, with peaks driven by large-scale projects and troughs reflecting institutional constraints. The energy sector dominates allocations, marginalizing critical adaptation needs in agriculture and water management. To bridge this gap, the paper proposes strengthening institutional capacity through centralized coordination, advocating for equitable global finance at forums like COP, and scaling innovative mechanisms such as local-currency green bonds and partnerships with PROGREEN and PROBLUE. Enhanced regulatory frameworks and transparency are critical to attract private investment and ensure equitable resource distribution. These systemic reforms, combining domestic action and international cooperation, are essential for Madagascar to achieve resilient, sustainable development amidst escalating climate risks
Statistical Economic Perspectives on Urban Inequality: A Systematic Review of GIS-Based Methodologies and Applications
Get PDFUrban inequality, as reflected by uneven spatial allocations of resources, services, and opportunities, has arisen as a major topic for quantitative research and policy intervention. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide a solid framework for quantifying, analyzing, and visualizing these disparities; nevertheless, the many statistical approaches used in different studies have not been completely pooled. This analysis looks at 201 peer-reviewed articles published between 1996 and 2024, obtained from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, that use GIS-based approaches to investigate intra-urban differences. Eligibility was limited to English-language, peer-reviewed research that focused on urban settings, with the screening technique following the PRISMA methodology. The review identifies five key theme domains: accessibility, green space, health-related disparity, socioeconomic status, and open space provision. In the literature, statistical and network-based approaches, such as spatial clustering, regression analysis, and bibliometric mapping, are critical for identifying patterns and driving thematic synthesis. Although accessibility remains the core focus, the subject has expanded to include a variety of indicators such as environmental justice and health vulnerability, aided by advances in data sources and spatial analytics. Ongoing methodological issues include spatial concentration in industrialized countries and the limited use of longitudinal or composite measurements. The report concludes by outlining research priorities and practical recommendations for improving statistical rigor, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration, and assuring policy relevance in GIS-based urban inequality studies
Separate needs for the leisure-consumption choice
Get PDFThis paper explores the labour supply and consumer demand equations derived from a utility function created by adding two S-shaped utilities.
An S-shaped cardinal utility for a commodity represents the individual’s experience of fulfilment of a need – deprivation (increasing marginal utility (MU)), subsistence (a point of inflection), sufficiency (diminishing MU), and either satiation at finite consumption with the possibility of surfeit, or satiation at infinite consumption.
The utilities of commodities fulfilling the same need are weakly separable (multiplicative) and those of two commodities fulfilling different needs are strongly separable (additive).
Functional forms are derived from a utility function created by adding two normal distribution functions with satiation at infinity, the parameters of which have meaningful psychological interpretations. The indifference map, demand and Engels curve diagrams are explored.
The main outcomes:
• Concave- (dysfunctional poverty) and convex-to-the-origin indifference curves are separated by a straight-line indifference curve, (an absolute poverty line).
• Budget movements on the indifference curve map reveal: corner solutions and disequilibrium associated with dysfunctional poverty; optimisation occurs elsewhere, even with deprivation in one or other need.
• The derived functional forms are functions of only the real wage rate and endowments of unearned consumption.
• The derived functional form diagrams display: involuntary unemployment, disjointed curves, sticky wages and prices, wage- and price-elasticity associated with deprivation in a need, inferior normal and inferior-Giffen responses, and envelope curves.
• The slope of the straight-line indifference curve, (defined by the relative-intensities-of-need), and its intercept on the endowment axis, play significant and dramatic roles in both Engels diagrams
Production Function as a Set of Discrete Options: Neoclassical, Net Zero, and Climate Neutrality
Get PDFThis study examines the relationship between the neoclassical, net-zero, and climate neutrality perspectives, an area that has received limited attention in formal economic analysis. Adopting the concept of factor substitution, we model the production function as a set of discrete, substitutable options to explore the properties and interactions of these three perspectives. The findings demonstrate that each perspective yields a non-empty subset of solution options. Climate neutrality solutions are situated between neoclassical and net-zero solutions, exhibit discrete convexity, and are influenced by the level of GHG credit costs. Lower GHG credit costs tend to favour neoclassical solutions, while higher costs shift preference toward net-zero solutions. This highlights the importance of GHG credit pricing in guiding the transition to a low-emissions economy. Moreover, the framework enables the categorization of new climate mitigation options based on their effects, whether they are irrelevant, complementary, or disruptive. Overall, the proposed model provides an alternative formal approach that enhances the economic analysis of climate change mitigation strategies
Influence by omission: The IMF’s lending capacity and central bank design
Get PDFA large literature explores how loan conditionalities and policy recommendations embedded in International Monetary Fund lending programs influence country behavior and policy choices. We argue that the IMF’s influence extends beyond these intentional efforts. This paper shows that the growth in the IMF’s lending capacity has failed to keep pace with financial globalization, and that this has incentivized emerging and developing economies to strengthen their domestic institutions for financial stability, particularly, their central bank’s capabilities to act as a lender of last resort. We conceptualize this as influence by omission, whereby the IMF shapes behavior not through direct engagement but through its declining ability to serve as an effective financial backstop. Using original data coding central bank lender of last resort powers for 60 developing countries between 1994 and 2020, we find that countries with relatively limited access to IMF resources are significantly more likely to strengthen their central banks’ lender of last resort authority. This finding is robust across a range of model specifications, instrumental variable analyses, and dynamic estimations. An event study of countries’ response to the Covid shock reveals that countries with stronger lending of last resort capabilities were much more likely to manage the crisis without drawing on IMF resources. Importantly, this effect is specific to lender of last resort powers and does not extend to other aspects of central bank governance such as independence or transparency, suggesting that distinct international and domestic incentives shape different reform trajectories
Role of Uzbekistan in the Rare Earth and Critical Minerals Economy
Get PDFCritical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are emerging as strategic resources driving the global energy transition and digital transformation, with demand projected to rise sharply over the coming decades. This paper examines Uzbekistan’s growing role in the critical minerals economy, analyzing its mineral endowments, policy reforms, and positioning within shifting geopolitical supply chains. It reviews global strategies of major powers, assesses Uzbekistan’s assets, governance challenges, and foreign investment patterns, and identifies risks related to environmental standards and overreliance on single partners. The study argues that Uzbekistan can leverage its resource base to advance green industrialization and economic diversification if it adopts transparent governance, strengthens domestic processing capacity, and pursues a balanced, multipolar partnership strategy. Policy recommendations are offered to integrate the sector into sustainable development objectives and avoid the pitfalls of resource dependency
Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short-and long-term effects
Get PDFWeather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, farmland use and intensity in Odisha, India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a panel autoregressive distributive lag model, we assess long-and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative yield elasticity to rainfall deviation, ranging from-0.16 for wheat to-0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, elasticity is positive for some pulses (green gram, urad) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Rainfall deviation and maximum temperature adversely affect the rate and intensity of farmland use but enhance crop diversification in both the short and long term
On Unitization as a Way of Addressing Water Pollution in the Ganges in Kanpur, India
Get PDFWe study water pollution in the Ganges River caused by tanneries in Kanpur, India. We analyze the merits of a recent claim that unitizing or merging the polluting tanneries can improve water quality in the Ganges. We first describe the n≥2 polluting tanneries in Kanpur as a Cournot oligopoly and derive the equilibrium output of leather and profits. Second, we permit m<n tanneries to merge and determine the cost function, when the m tanneries can use their production facilities, and there are no other efficiency gains from unitization. Third, we examine when the m-tannery unitization is profitable to the unitized entity and to the non-unitized tanneries. Fourth, we discuss our conclusions about the profitability of the unitized and the non-unitized tanneries and comment on what our findings mean for improved water quality in the Ganges. Finally, we discuss some key regional dimensions of the Ganges water pollution problem caused by tanneries in Kanpur
Estimation of the Unemployment Rate in Moldova: A Comparison of ARIMA and Machine Learning Models Including COVID-19 Pandemic Periods
Get PDFThis study investigates the estimation of the unemployment rate in the Republic of Moldova, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two forecasting approaches are compared: the traditional ARIMA model and several machine learning models. The performance of these models is evaluated based on prediction accuracy metrics over pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. Results indicate that while ARIMA captures general trends effectively, machine learning models can better adapt to sudden shocks, such as those induced by the pandemic