60853 research outputs found
Sort by
Portfolio Management in the selected Middle East countries: New evidence of Iran-Israel War
Full text linkMiddle Eastern countries, due to their natural and financial resources, occupy a strategic position in the global economy. Despite this, portfolio management of their financial markets remains largely unexplored amid political and geopolitical crises. This study investigates return spillovers among eight selected currencies, analyzing total connectedness (TCI), net transmitters and receivers of risk, dynamic optimal weights, hedge effectiveness, cumulative returns, and Sharpe ratios using MVP, MCP, and MCOP approaches. Findings based on Broadstock et al. (2022) approach, show that the UAE and Saudi Arabia currencies are the main risk transmitters, while Lebanon is the primary receiver. The Israeli shekel exhibits the lowest network connection, making it a suitable asset for portfolio diversification. TCI surged to 65% during the Russia-Ukraine war, reducing diversification opportunities, then rose again during the Israel-Hamas conflict and the 12-day Israel-Iran war, ultimately reaching 50% by the study’s end. Optimal weights and hedge effectiveness indicate that currency selection depends on market conditions and the applied approach; for example, the Qatari stock market offers significant risk management potential, while the MCP approach achieves the highest cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios. Overall, the study highlights that effective risk management in the Middle East requires attention to geopolitical dynamics and structural market changes, providing practical insights for investors and policymakers to optimize asset allocation and enhance financial stability in high-risk environments
Teletrabajo y bienestar de los trabajadores en Finlandia
Full text linkThis study analyzes the influence of various factors on the probability of being a teleworker, experiencing
depression, maintaining a satisfactory work–family balance, and the overall well-being of Finnish workers. The
analysis is based on data from the 2021 European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) and uses cross-sectional
models. Specifically, probit models are estimated for discrete dependent variables and Ordinary Least Squares
(OLS) models for continuous dependent variables. These models aim to explain individuals’ choices between
two possible alternatives, coded as 1 and 0, according to a set of exogenous variables.
The results show that the probability of being a teleworker is mainly determined by having higher education
and being male. In the case of depression, the most relevant factors are living in a rural area and having
a partial teleworking arrangement. Regarding work–family balance, full telework and university education
significantly increase the likelihood of reporting a good work–life balance. Finally, workers’ well-being is
primarily determined by age (in logarithms) and by being young, suggesting a non-linear relationship between
age and well-being
A Novel Deep Learning Framework for Economic Video Analysis and Tactical Insight Extraction
Full text linkThis paper presents a novel deep learning framework for video analysis focused on automated key object detection and tactical action recognition within economic activity contexts. The proposed system integrates enhanced motion estimation for robust tracking of functional objects and state-of-the art 3D pose estimation to extract participant postures relevant to economic decision-making behavior. A deep semantic tactical ontology is employed to model the complex relationships between individuals, objects, and their actions, enabling interpretable and rule-based tactical insight extraction for
economic interaction patterns beyond conventional classification. Evaluations conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate high accuracy with approximately 91% in object detection and 96% in action recognition, highlighting the framework’s applicability to dynamic economic environments involving multi-agent interactions. Comparative analysis against baseline methods shows the effectiveness of the framework in handling complex scenarios with occlusions and rapidly changing economic behaviors. Future work will focus on enhancing preprocessing techniques, automating ontology rule learning, and extending the approach to a wider range of economically oriented domains. This research contributes to advancing intelligent analytics by bridging deep learning with semantic reasoning, fostering improved real-time tactical feedback and decision support in economic environments
Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring
Full text linkGeopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global critical-mineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc, is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Using monthly data from 1995–2025 and a structural VAR-local projection framework, we estimate the dynamic effects of exogenous shocks to the US-China Political Relations Index (PRI) on mineral markets. We find that geopolitical deterioration systematically induces significant precautionary stockpiling. We then construct a multidimensional friend-shoring index incorporating reserves, alignment, regime type and distance, showing that only a narrow set of United States partners, primarily Australia and Canada, offer feasible pathways for refining diversification. The policy recommendation stemming from our findings is that the United States should make strategic stockpiling of refined critical minerals, rather than raw ores, the centerpiece of its strategy to build supply chain resilience, while negotiating long-term bilateral packages for the supply of refined critical minerals with Australia and Canada
Legal Origins, Labor Regulations, and Labor Market Outcomes
No full textUsing data from 50 economies, we re-examine the role of legal origins in shaping labor regulations and explore the consequences of these regulations on labor market outcomes. We find that civil law countries tend to adopt more protective labor regulations while common law countries emphasize flexible employment regulations. We document that de jure protective labor regulations create barriers to labor market entry while de facto flexible employment regulations have adverse informal employment and labor productivity consequences. Our results suggest that flexible employment regulations without adequate labor protection laws can encourage labor exploitation, reduce labor productivity, and are insufficient to draw firms and workers into the formal sector
Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia
No full textThis study examines the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic growth in Tunisia from 1980 to 2011, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The analysis incorporates key macroeconomic variables, including initial GDP per capita, investment, public expenditure, trade openness, and human capital, to assess their impact on economic performance. The results indicate that real exchange rate depreciation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on growth. While depreciation may enhance external competitiveness and stimulate exports, its impact remains contingent on import costs and inflationary pressures. Conversely, trade openness and human capital have positive and statistically significant effects, reinforcing the argument that economic liberalization and investment in human capital are crucial drivers of growth. Public expenditure, however, shows a negative and significant relationship with growth, suggesting potential inefficiencies in fiscal policy. These findings highlight the importance of exchange rate management, investment policies, and trade liberalization in fostering economic development. Policymakers should prioritize structural reforms, technology transfer, and private investment to enhance long-term growth prospects. The study’s insights are particularly relevant for other developing economies seeking to optimize exchange rate policies and economic strategies to achieve sustainable growth
A Proposal for a Unified Forecast Accuracy Index (UFAI): Toward Multidimensional and Context-Aware Forecast Evaluation
No full textForecast accuracy evaluation is a cornerstone in fields as diverse as finance, public health, energy, and meteorology. However, traditional reliance on single-error metrics—such as MAE, RMSE, or MAPE—offers only a fragmented view of a model’s performance, often obscuring critical dimensions like systematic bias, volatility, directional behavior, or shape fidelity. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes the Unified Forecast Accuracy Index (UFAI), a multidimensional and composite metric that consolidates several facets of forecasting quality into a single, interpretable score. UFAI integrates four normalized sub-indices—bias, variance, directional accuracy, and shape preservation—each capturing a distinct performance characteristic. The framework accommodates multiple weighting schemes: equal weighting for simplicity, expert-informed weighting to reflect domain-specific priorities, and data-driven weighting based on statistical principles such as Principal Component Analysis and entropy measures. This flexibility enables users to adapt the index to diverse forecasting objectives and application contexts. The article details the mathematical formulation of each sub-index, discusses the theoretical soundness and practical implications of different weighting strategies, and demonstrates the utility of UFAI through comparative model evaluations. Emphasis is placed on the index’s normalization, interpretability, robustness to outliers, and extensibility to future use cases such as multi-horizon and probabilistic forecasts. By offering a more integrated and context-aware assessment tool, the UFAI marks a significant advancement in forecast evaluation methodology, supporting more reliable model selection and ultimately enhancing decision-making in data-driven environments
Macroeconomic Drivers of Foreign Capital Inflows: Revisiting Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment Nexus in Pakistan
No full textForeign direct investment plays a critical role in the economic development of emerging economies, including Pakistan, by fostering job creation, industrialization, and the transfer of technology. Tax policy is a central determinant in shaping investor confidence and influencing the inflow of foreign direct investment. This study examines the impact of taxation policy on foreign direct investment in Pakistan, while also considering gross domestic product growth, exchange rate, and domestic interest rate as control variables. Annual time-series data from 1975 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank, the Economic Survey of Pakistan, and the State Bank of Pakistan, are utilized for empirical analysis. The findings reveal that both the tax rate and exchange rate exert statistically significant and negative effects on foreign direct investment inflows, indicating that higher tax burdens and unfavorable exchange rates act as deterrents to foreign investors. In contrast, the domestic interest rate exhibits a strong positive association with foreign direct investment, while gross domestic product growth does not show a significant impact. Diagnostic tests confirm the robustness of the model and indicate the absence of major econometric issues. The results underscore the pivotal importance of an investor-friendly tax regime in attracting and sustaining foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Policymakers are therefore encouraged to reduce the overall tax burden and maintain macroeconomic stability to enhance Pakistan’s attractiveness as an investment destination on the global stage
Disbalances in inefficient equilibrium states in “vertical” relationships of agents
Full text linkThe problem of identification of efficient economic conditions, arising from the «vertical» agents’ relationship, is considered. It’s shown that the application of classical concepts of market failure to estimate the intracorporate relationships is inexpedient. The application of the principal-agent theory using the concept of disbalances is considered. A number of examples of the interaction between economic agents, the eventual failure of whose can be proved by disbalances given. The pattern of evolutionary transformation of relationship, characterized by coordinating or strategic disbalance, is described for Pareto inefficient conditions and norms
Home Production and Gender Gap in Structural Change
Full text linkWe document that the gender gap in non-agricultural work in developing countries exists primarily among rural married workers, not singles. Married women spend more time on home production, making them less likely to pursue non-agricultural employment. We extend a general equilibrium Roy model to incorporate the joint labor supply decisions of rural married couples, accounting for gender-specific labor distortions and entry barriers to non-agriculture. Calibrating the model to China, we find that the gender gap in non-agricultural employment can be largely explained by gender differences in home production and labor market distortions. Furthermore, within-household specialization among married couples greatly amplifies the effects of gender-specific labor distortions, and changes in entry barriers to non-agriculture widened the gender gap in China between 2000 and 2010. Enhancing public services such as childcare facilities can effectively induce more married women to work in non-agriculture. Extrapolating our model globally, it explains a quarter of the variation in the gender gap across countries