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Elasticidad de los precios de viviendas frente a regulaciones urbanas: Evidencia por el lado de la oferta en Santiago, Chile
Full text linkThis study presents causal evidence elucidating the impact of urban regulations on housing prices through two opposing mechanisms: land value capitalization and construction cost efficiencies. Utilizing instrumental variables and transaction-level data, the research reveals that a 1% increase in building height results in a 0.10% reduction in prices, whereas the floor-area ratio leads to a 0.25% increase. Additionally, density (-0.16%) contributes to price reductions, aligning with efficient land utilization, while lot coverage operates as a price-increasing variable (0.13%). These effects demonstrate significant heterogeneity across urban contexts, with complete sign reversals contingent upon location and income. For example, the price-reducing effect of height is predominantly observed in low-value land and areas with high accessibility, yet it reverses to a price-increasing effect in peripheral locations. The study identifies notable complementarities among regulations, emphasizing developers’ strategic packaging of norms, particularly in the triple interaction between height, lot coverage, and floor-area ratio. The findings challenge uniform regulatory approaches, suggesting that policies aimed at affordability should advocate for strategic combinations of height and density, tailored to local market contexts
Industrial Policy, Trade Rules, and Security Sovereignty: Navigating WTO and Preferential Trade Agreements in Africa
Full text linkThis paper explores the growing tension between Africa’s industrial policy aspirations and the constraints imposed by global trade rules and preferential trade agreements. It investigates how the World Trade Organization (WTO) and regional or bilateral trade agreements restrict the tools African states can use to support local industry. The paper also reconsiders national and economic security definitions in the African context and examines how these evolving concepts can justify a broader policy space. The study argues that Africa’s development objectives require a rebalancing of trade commitments with industrial and security imperatives, proposing practical approaches for greater autonomy in policymaking
The market impact of inflation surprises in South Africa
Full text linkInflation surprises are expected to change market expectations of how the central bank’s policy settings will change, and cause repricing of short term rates and risk premia, which should affect the market value of a variety of assets. This note assesses the
sensitivity of the South African rand and sovereign yield curve to inflation surprises. Though impacts are generally small in absolute terms, we show that the currency tends to appreciate after positive headline inflation surprises, while the currency has tended to
depreciate after positive core inflation surprises. Contrary to expectation, we show that positive headline and core surprises have tended to be associated with a flatter curve. Our results suggest that the impact of inflation surprises tend to be swamped by external
shocks or spikes in domestic idiosyncratic risk. We note, for example, that the largest day-to-day shifts in the yield curve and currency on days of consumer price data releases have been associated with external shocks or spikes in South Africa-specific risks
Determinants of Building-Sector CO₂ Emissions in the EU: A Combined Econometric and Machine Learning Approach
Full text linkThis paper evaluates the structural, environmental, and climatic factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions from the building sector (CBE) in 27 European Union member states from 2005 to 2023. This analysis uses panel data from the World Bank and four econometric models—Random Effects, Fixed Effects, Dynamic Panel GMM, and Weighted Least Squares—coupled with machine learning and clustering to provide a robust analysis of emissions. The econometric models show that all models support a negative relationship between agriculture, forestry, and fishing value added (AFFV) and forest area (FRST), suggesting that a robust rural economy and substantial natural carbon sinks are accompanied by lower emissions in the building sector. On the other hand, water stress (WSTR), PM2.5 pollution, heating and cooling degree days, and nitrous oxide emissions (N2OP) are found to significantly, yet positively, affect CBE. Tests of diagnostic analyses support Fixed Effects and Weighted Least Squares models, whereas results from GMM models are limited by instrument validity violations. In machine learning analysis, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) models are found to be most diagnostic, with all performance metrics being improved, establishing a prominent role for coal electricity, water stress, agricultural intensities, and climatic factors. Subsequently, a solution with 10 clusters, selected using Bayesian Information Criteria and silhouettes, identified a set of environmental and economic characteristics based on differences between low- and high-emission groups. High-emitting groups result from agricultural intensification, pollution, and low energy efficiency, while low-emitting groups are associated with renewable energy, low pollution, and a favorable climate. This analysis, hence, presents a multifaceted assessment of building sector emissions, with climatic, structural, and energy transition patterns as driving factors for meeting decarbonization targets for the European Union
Informal cross-border trade by MSMEs in East Africa: Opportunities, challenges, and gendered experiences at Cyanika, Mpondwe, and Vvura border areas
Full text linkThis paper examines the opportunities and challenges facing Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) engaged in informal cross-border trade (ICBT) at three strategic border locations: Cyanika (Rwanda-Uganda), Mpondwe (DRC-Uganda), and Vvura (DRC-Uganda). Using primary data from stakeholder consultations and secondary data from official trade statistics, we analyze trade flows, operating models, and the unique constraints confronting women traders, who constitute over 70% of the informal trading population. The study reveals that Mpondwe and Vvura collectively account for 33.2% of Uganda's informal export revenue ($188.6 million in 2023), with fish, agricultural products, and manufactured goods dominating trade flows. While the Simplified Trade Regime (STR) and One-Stop Border Posts (OSBPs) have improved formalization rates, significant challenges persist including customs compliance burdens, inadequate infrastructure, regulatory inconsistencies, and gender-based vulnerabilities. Our empirical analysis employs a structural gravity model to estimate trade facilitation effects, demonstrating that behind-the-border costs reduce trade volumes by 23-35%. We find that women traders face disproportionate barriers including sexual harassment, limited access to market information, and inadequate childcare facilities. The paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations for gender-responsive trade facilitation, including mobile testing laboratories, digital trade platforms, and strengthened cross-border trader associations
Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in ECOWAS countries
No full textUnemployment is a major issue in ECOWAS countries and its determinants are not well-known. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in ECOWAS countries using data from 1993 to 2021. The data were analysed using the panel fixed effect and random effect regression methods. It was found that real GDP growth and central bank asset to GDP ratio are significant macroeconomic determinants of unemployment while inflation rate and domestic private credit have an insignificant effect on unemployment in ECOWAS countries. It was also found that higher domestic private credit significantly decreases unemployment during periods of economic expansion while periods of deflation decrease the rate of unemployment in ECOWAS countries. Positive economic growth is associated with low unemployment in ECOWAS countries
US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025)
No full textBahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and Southwest border crossings. We show that his conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle–Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper’s approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar’s approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration
The Joule Standard: A Thermodynamic Theory of Monetary Evolution and Civilizational Collapse
No full textStandard economic models often treat money as a social construct independent of physical laws. This paper proposes a unified thermodynamic theory of value, positing that monetary systems are information protocols evolved to maximize entropy production in dissipative structures (civilizations).
By analyzing 10,000 years of economic history—from the Neolithic
era to the Digital Age—we demonstrate a strict linear relationship (R2 = 0:9934) between the Real Cost of Energy (E) and the Granularity of Money (G). We derive the Equation of Value, G / E, where the value of the accounting unit scales directly with the energy cost of labor. This framework resolves historical anomalies such as the collapse of the Roman Denarius and the failure of the 20th-century Gold Standard, interpreting them not as policy errors, but as thermodynamic phase transitions. The theory predicts that the current decline in the marginal cost of energy (via AI and renewables) necessitates a transition to a monetary substrate with near-infinite divisibility and zero friction
Integration of the US goods market, 2001–2015
Full text linkA spatially dispersed market for a tradable good is deemed integrated if there are no barriers to trade between its spatial segments (except for geographical barriers, namely distances between the segments). However, perfectly integrated markets are not a common case; real markets deviate to some extent from this ideal state. Therefore, estimating a degree of integration is more helpful then an answer of the type “all or nothing” (whether the market is integrated or not integrated). In an integrated market, price for a good is determined in the national market as a whole, not depending on demand in its spatial segments. Hence, a dependence of local price on local demand (controlling for transportation costs) indicates a deviation from perfect integration, and its “strength” can measure the degree of market integration. Based on this idea, we estimate the annual integration degrees of the US market for an aggregated good (grocery basket) over 15 years, 2001–2015. The spatial segments are cities; our sample covers 66 cities from 39 states of the US. The results suggest that the US market is not perfectly integrated; however, the integration degree of the US market is fairly stable over time. We also compare results for the US with results of a similar study for Russia. With a reservation that the empirical material is not fully comparable, we can conclude that the US market is integrated more strongly than the Russian market and that the integration degree in Russia is more volatile
Defending Deep Democracy. Three elections - three surprises - three lessons
Full text linkThe goal of this paper is to use the experiences of three surprising election results in 1930, 1916 and 2024 to explain which lessons can be drawn for further development of humanity’s evolution. It turns out that deep changes in the organisation of self-governance will be needed to master the evolving crises of global capitalism, which, over the last years, has been morphing into authoritarian, global, absolute capitalism