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A Gender Gap in Attitudes Towards Monetary Policy? The Case of Satisfaction with the Bank of England
Full text linkThis paper investigates the existence and extent of a gender gap in satisfaction with the Bank of England’s performance in controlling inflation. Descriptive data and previous research report gender gaps in attitudes towards monetary institutions and outcomes. Much of this research, however, disregards potential biases arising from women’s lower propensity to express an opinion, and to answer “don’t know” instead. Using the Bank of England’s Inflation Attitudes survey (2001-2025), and modelling selection into substantive answers, I find a statistically significant –yet, substantively small and not persistent– gender gap in satisfaction with the Bank of England. This gender gap remains after controlling for inflation perception and monetary knowledge. I also find that women do not overestimate inflation, and they do not seem to “punish” more harshly the Bank for high inflation or deflation. Therefore, variance in this gender gap can be attributed to a different propensity to report more “extreme” opinions, and to different reactions to high inflation or deflation. These findings highlight gendered dimensions for the understanding of monetary institutions and finance, contributing to the literature on satisfaction with the performance of institutions
A Theoretical Framework for Crude Oil Price Evolution: Insights from the Financial Crisis and Beyond
Full text linkThis study develops a theoretical model to understand the dynamics of crude oil prices, integrating Keynesian insights on imperfect competition and long-memory volatility through the FIGARCH framework. The model incorporates both demand and supply-side factors, with a particular focus on firm expectations and production costs, to explain price fluctuations. By calibrating the model to historical oil price data, we examine how demand dynamics, driven by expectations of future demand and current production costs, influence oil price movements. The study highlights the limitations of relying solely on demand as a predictor for price changes, particularly in the context of global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results reveal that the exclusion of supply-side factors, including production costs and geopolitical risks, leads to significant discrepancies in price predictions, especially during periods of crisis. The findings emphasize the need for a more comprehensive approach to modeling oil prices, incorporating both demand and supply dynamics, to better capture market behavior during times of global shocks
Uma Breve Interpretação das Diferentes Reações de Japão e China, a Partir do Século XIX, ao Desafio do Ocidente
Full text linkWhat makes a country grow and develop while another languishes in stagnation or regression? What kinds of decisions are made that lead to this divergence? This article seeks to illustrate this question through two examples of very close nations: China and Japan. It aims to compare the largely successful example of Japan with the failure of the former Chinese empire to withstand Western pressures, which became stronger following the attainment of industrial and military supremacy after the British Industrial Revolution and its imitation and subsequent surpassing by other European countries and the USA. This failure would only be reversed in the Chinese case in the 20th century, starting with the Revolution of 1949 and, more decisively, after the economic reforms initiated in 1978. The contrast between China’s ineffective response to the Western challenge and Japan’s effective and incredibly rapid response will be explained in the article, along with some of the reasons for these different reactions. It will be demonstrated how Japan undertook something entirely different by changing the Emperor and initiating the so-called Meiji Revolution, in place of the Tokugawa Era (1603-1867). This also resulted in Japan’s modern industrialization occurring nearly a century earlier than that of its Asian neighbors, including China
Making the Violation Fit the Punishment? Mandatory Disclosure, Discontinuous Penalties, and Inspector Behavior
Full text linkMandatory disclosure can regulate product quality, but also motivate manipulation of disclosed information. While information collection by regulatory agents prevents direct manipulation, indirectly, firms may persuade those agents to manipulate. Los Angeles County food-service health inspections are numerically scored—violations deduct from 100—but only letter grades are disclosed. Dubious bunching of scores at 90—the A-grade threshold—has long been evident. In 2017, the county responded with a new rule: committing multiple 4-point violations in an inspection incurs an additional 3-point penalty. While most health-code violations are prescribed a single deduction, a subset carry 2- or 4-point penalties depending on severity. Before the new rule, severity under-reporting in response to letter-grade implications is evident. Among otherwise very similar inspection performances, the new rule introduces letter-grade implications in some contexts, but not others, and difference-in-differences estimates suggest these new letter-grade implications caused a 46% relative increase in lesser-deduction propensity—i.e., severity under-reporting not only persists, it appears to adapts in opposition to the new rule's apparent intent. Response heterogeneity reveals inspectors whose reporting is highly sensitive to, and some whose reporting is insensitive to, letter-grade implications. Interestingly, while the highly-sensitive types exhibit bias favoring firms when letter-grade implications exist, they appear to be the more stringent inspectors, generally. The insensitive types assess the lesser deduction at relatively high frequencies irrespective of letter-grade implications, and comparisons suggest the highly-sensitive types may be more reliable reporters of non-compliance overall
Interest Rates and Pension Fund Risk-Taking: New Cross-Country Evidence
Full text linkThis paper studies the impact of low interest rates on pension fund risk-taking. I assemble a new cross-country dataset encompassing portfolio holdings of over 100 large pension funds. The data reveal that pension funds increased their exposure to riskier asset classes, such as equities and alternatives, in the low interest rate period after the global financial crisis. Using an instrumental variables approach, I estimate that pension funds increase their exposure to risky assets when domestic interest rates fall. A 25 basis point decline in interest rates is associated with a 0.51 percentage point increase in pension funds’ share of risky assets. This behavior is most pronounced for mature and underfunded pension funds, facing greater pressure to generate returns
Mechanism Design for Queueing with Capacity-Constrained Shifts
Full text linkWe study a single-server queue with fixed-length shifts where service of unit length jobs is non-pre-emptive; residual time shorter than one job, namely fractional part of , at boundaries is lost. Agents have constant private unit waiting costs. The efficient rule partitions agents into feasible shifts, orders shifts by the sum of members' costs, and orders agents within each shift by their costs. We show, by \citet{Holmstrom} and \citet{Suijs} type arguments, that only Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) transfers implement efficiency in dominant strategies. We then delineate when efficiency and DSIC implementation can be combined with budget balance (first-best mechanisms). If shifts are of unit-capacity ( is non-integral (so each shift can host at least two agents but leaves residual slack), no first-best mechanism exists. The proof uses a the cubical-array lemma of \citet{Walker} adapted to our setting
The Synergistic Effects of Digitalization and Financial Capital on Inclusive Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa - A Panel PMG-VECM Analysis
Full text linkThis study examines the synergistic effects of digitalization and financial development on inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a balanced panel from 13 countries (2000–2022) and the Pooled Mean Group Vector Error Correction Model (PMG-VECM), we establish a robust long-run equilibrium. Findings reveal digitalization (Internet penetration) and institutional quality as the strongest drivers, with elasticities of 0.084 and 0.424, respectively. Financial development shows a moderate positive effect (0.075), while investment and trade openness present counterintuitive negative coefficients, suggesting structural inefficiencies. A significant error correction mechanism confirms convergence towards long-run equilibrium at a 19.5% annual speed. As the first comprehensive application of PMG-VECM to this nexus in SSA, this study provides methodologically robust evidence that distinguishes short-run dynamics from long-run effects. The results underscore the necessity for integrated, long-term policies that simultaneously advance digital infrastructure, financial sector deepening, and institutional quality to foster inclusive growth
International Remittances and Intra-Household Risk-Sharing
Full text linkA large body of research has established the importance of international remittances as an insurance mechanism against income shocks in developing countries. However, households have additional self-insurance mechanisms, including precautionary savings, labor supply adjustments, and multiple earners. This paper develops a model with heterogeneous two-member households and endogenous international remittances to study the relationship between remittances from overseas workers and other self-insurance mechanisms. I calibrate the model with data from the Dominican Republic, and then use the model to decompose the relative importance of the self-insurance mechanisms used by non-migrant households and households with overseas workers. I find that the response of household behavior (remittances, labor supply, and savings) differs greatly depending on whether the household is a migrant or non-migrant household and on whether the shock hits the overseas worker (usually male) or the left-behind family member (usually female). Allowing for correlated wage shocks within non-migrant households further highlights the insurance benefits of migration by reducing joint exposure to local shocks and altering the composition of self-insurance mechanisms
Beyond homogeneous production functions
Full text linkStandard production functions, being homogeneous, have unchanging returns to scale. Therefore, it remains unclear to students where the U-shape average-cost curves come from. This article considers non-homogeneous production functions that have variable returns to scale and can produce such curves, providing a specific example. The article also discusses the link between economies/diseconomies of scale and market structures, showing that economies of scale are incompatible with perfect competition. They are peculiar to monopolies and oligopolies, whereas in a perfectly competitive market there are no economies of scale, diseconomies of scale being a quite normal phenomenon
AI-EcoSCM: A Lean and Agile Framework for Economic Excellence
Full text linkThis paper explores the emerging framework of AI-driven Economic Supply Chain Management (EcoSCM), which adapts industrial supply chain optimization and artificial intelligence (AI) principles to the management of economic systems and institutions. EcoSCM emphasizes the systematic coordination of financial, administrative, and technological processes to deliver efficient, adaptive, and data-driven economic ecosystems. The study highlights how Lean principles (waste elimination, continuous improvement) enhance operational efficiency, while Agile principles promote flexibility and responsiveness to rapidly changing market and policy environments. In addition, AI integration—through predictive modeling, data analytics, and intelligent automation—provides real-time insights, informed decision-making, and enhanced economic intelligence. The paper proposes Lean, Agile, and AI Scoring Models to evaluate institutional maturity across efficiency, adaptability, and intelligence dimensions. By aligning Lean efficiency, Agile flexibility, and AI-driven intelligence, EcoSCM establishes a Smart Leagile paradigm capable of sustaining innovation, quality assurance, and digital transformation in the economic sector.
Keywords: Economic Supply Chain Management (EcoSCM); Lean–Agile Economy; Artificial Intelligence (AI); Smart Economics; Sustainable Growth