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High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
No full textRobust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced.
The first phase of HighResMIP (HighResMIP1) was successful in producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions of order 1-degree typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis for a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and others that were used for impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models.
The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP.
Therefore, we propose an updated HighResMIP2 to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now made possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various Digital Twin initiatives, as well as having the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast evolving Machine Learning climate models
Modelling emission and transport of key components of primary marine organic aerosol using the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3
No full textPrimary marine organic aerosol (PMOA) contributes significantly to the aerosol loading over remote oceanic regions, where sea spray dominates aerosol production in the lower troposphere, and plays an important role in aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. The sea-atmosphere transfer of organic components depends on their abundance at the ocean surface and their physicochemical characteristics. We introduce a novel approach for representing the ocean concentration of the most abundant organic groups in seawater that are relevant to aerosols. By apportioning the phytoplankton exuded dissolved organic carbon, modelled in the biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3, three biomolecule groups are computed (dissolved carboxylic acidic containing polysaccharides (PCHO), dissolved combined amino acids (DCAA), and polar lipids (PL)). The transfer of these marine groups to the atmosphere is represented by the OCEANFILMS (Organic Compounds from Ecosystems to Aerosols: Natural Films and Interfaces via Langmuir Molecular Surfactants) parameterization which is implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 to represent the emission and transport processes in the atmosphere. The concentration of biomolecules in the ocean serves as the bottom boundary condition for the PMOA simulation within the aerosol model. Among the simulated organic groups in seawater, modelled PCHO is the most prevalent, followed by DCAA and PL. Conversely, PL contributes the most to the organic matter in aerosols, given the high air-seawater affinity of lipids compared to the other groups. Biomolecules exhibit minor variations in Equatorial waters, whereas strong seasonal patterns are observed towards the polar regions. The global aerosol model simulations indicate that PMOA emission fluxes are primarily influenced by marine biological activity and surface wind conditions. Based on the most comprehensive evaluation to date, the computed levels of biomolecules in the ocean and species-resolved PMOA concentrations are compared with ground-based measurements across the globe. The comparison shows a strong agreement, given the uncertainties in model assumptions and measurements. Since PMOA is emitted together with sea salt, model biases in the representation of the marine organic aerosol groups are caused by uncertainties in the simulated sea salt concentrations. A comparison with a set of long-range in-situ aircraft measurements indicates that by including PMOA in the model, the representation of organic aerosols in the Southern Oceans is significantly improved
Movement in 3D: Novel Opportunities for Understanding Animal Behaviour and Space Use
No full textAnimals move in three spatial dimensions, but many animal movement tools have only focused on the use of 2D coordinates for modelling space use, habitat selection, behavioural classification, social interactions and movement. Here, we submit that many common movement ecology analyses can and should be extended to consider all three spatial dimensions to make more robust inferences about ecological processes. We provide an overview of how home range analysis, network analysis and social network analysis, hidden Markov models, resource selection and step selection functions and hierarchical linear and additive models are used for studying animal movement in two dimensions. Then, we explain how the third dimension, z, can be used within these existing frameworks to consider how depth and altitude affect key ecological inferences drawn from animal tracking data. Our position builds on empirical and theoretical work about how three-dimensional methods can contribute to stronger inferences in movement ecology. Key limitations to operationalisation of this framework include calibration of uncertainty in pressure sensors used to measure depth and altitude, visualisation and rendering of three-dimensional data to make them interpretable and understandable to end-users and generally more conventional and accepted methods for using three dimensions when conducting standard animal movement analyses
Assessment of potential eutrophication in coastal waters of Gran Canaria: Impact on plankton community under CO2 depletion
No full textPopulation growth in coastal tourist areas is leading to enhanced waste production, raising concerns about potential nutrient release increases and the resulting impact on marine ecosystems through eutrophication. Knowledge of the specific impacts of eutrophication on plankton communities in many of these regions is limited, highlighting the need for further research and appropriate environmental management strategies. To help address these gaps, we conducted a 30-day mesocosm study in the coastal waters of Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, a major European tourist destination, and the third most densely populated autonomous community in Spain. With the aim of assessing the effects of nutrient input on biomass, primary production (PP) and recycling processes by phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacterioplankton, we simulated three nutrient discharge intensities (Low, Medium, and High), with daily additions of 0.1, 1, and 10 μmol L−1 of nitrate, respectively, along with phosphate and silicate. We observed that PP, chlorophyll a (Chl-a), and biomass increased linearly with nutrient input, except in the High treatment, where CO2 depletion (2500 μmol L−1) resulted in reduced PP. Despite limitations in nitrogen (Control, Low, and Medium) or carbon (High) availability across treatments, which led to stabilized or decreased PP rates and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, bacterial degradation remained active in all treatments. This microbial activity resulted in an accumulation of recalcitrant chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), indicating the resilience of carbon recycling processes under varying nutrient conditions. Furthermore, a clear succession was evident in all enriched treatments, transitioning from an oligotrophic condition dominated by pico- and nanophytoplankton to a eutrophic state primarily composed of diatoms. However, under CO2 depletion, diatoms experienced a decline in the High treatment, leading to the proliferation of potentially mixotrophic dinoflagellates. Microzooplankton was less sensitive than mesozooplankton to the decrease in prey availability and high pH caused by CO2 depletion. Interestingly, the Medium treatment showed high efficiency in terms of PP, despite reaching CO2 levels near of 1.0 μmol L−1 by the end of the experiment. PP rates increased from 10 to 100 μg C·L−1·d−1 during the first week and remained stable as diatoms predominated throughout the study period. These findings provide valuable insights into the responses of plankton communities to varying nutrient inputs and emphasize the importance of considering the effects of DIC depletion, along with changes in total alkalinity, in eutrophication scenarios as well as in ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions
Assessing the potential for seaweed cultivation in EU seas through an integrated modelling approach
No full textThe potential of large-scale seaweed cultivation to contribute to achieving ambitious EU-wide objectives, such as food security, energy independence, carbon neutrality and ecosystems restoration, is widely recognized. However, there is a lack of information on the suitability of EU marine regions for the installation of floating macro-algae cultivation infrastructures. In this study, we utilize the World Offshore Macro Algae Production Potential (WOMAPP) model in conjunction with state-of-the-art coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models, to assess the environmental suitability of EU marine regions for seaweed cultivation. Our analysis reveals that the EU Atlantic regions are the most suitable areas for seaweed cultivation, particularly for cold-water and intermediate-water species. The potential cultivation area is extensive, spanning over 1 million km2, and even taking a precautionary approach by occupying only 1% of that area could yield a yearly production of over 30 million tonnes dry weight. Adding logistical constraints (water depth and distance to coast) further limit the potential production to 5 million tonnes per year, only considering EU member states' waters. Furthermore, we discuss the opportunity to use integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), to increase the potential for seaweed cultivation
Gap Analysis on the Biology of Marine Fishes Across European Seas
No full textThis review evaluates the current knowledge of essential biological traits (diet, fecundity, maturity, length-weight relationships, spawning, growth, lifespan, and natural mortality) of marine fishes across European and adjacent waters. These traits are crucial for ecosystem modeling and stock assessments. Using data from FishBase, the largest and most comprehensive database on fishes, a gap analysis was performed to identify areas of research focus and the corresponding gaps that require further study. Biological data coverage is strong in the Baltic and North Seas but moderate in the Adriatic, Aegean, Biscay, Celtic, Levantine, and western Mediterranean Seas. Well-documented species include the European conger (Conger conger), thornback ray (Raja clavata), and transparent goby (Aphia minuta) which are reported from all areas. The narrowest knowledge gaps concern length-weight relationships, followed by spawning and growth, while natural mortality and fecundity are the least studied biological characteristics. Regional variations exist, particularly for protected species. Future research should focus on filling gaps by addressing overlooked species (bycatch and discarded species) and traits such as natural mortality and fecundity, with special attention to vulnerable groups like sharks and rays. Expanding biological data coverage will reduce uncertainties in stock assessments and improve ecosystem models, two widely used tools for sustainable fisheries management and marine conservation
Unveiling the carbon fixation potential of marine Prokaryotes using MarMAGs, a novel user-friendly database with over 130 thousand metagenome assemble genomes
No full textNew findings on sub-seabed storage of carbon dioxide: The six most important outcomes of AIMS³ research
No full textIn the CDRmare research consortium AIMS³, experts have spent the past three years
investigating under which conditions carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolved in seawater could be
stored in the young basalt crust south of Iceland. In addition, they have developed new,
deep-sea-capable sensors and monitoring systems for measuring the mineralisation of the
stored CO2 and assessing the environmental soundness of such a potential deep-sea
storage project
Wissenschaftlicher Beirat des Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW) / Mitglied
No full textPhysicochemical controls on seawater
No full textThe overriding physicochemical controls in seawater discussed here are the chemical composition and the state of master variables including temperature, pressure, salinity, pH and redox status. Dissolved Organic Matter also plays a major role, but since its properties are not sufficiently well quantified it is described as an emergent master variable at this stage. The theoretical basis for the treatment of equilibrium chemistry and kinetics is presented, together with projections of the future development of seawater chemistry resulting from climate change.
Key points
• Composition of seawater
• Master variables (temperature, pressure, pH, oxygen/redox state)
• The role of Dissolved Organic Matter
• Equilibrium chemistry
• Kinetics
• The consequences of ongoing global change