Policy Documentation Center

Major changes in the labour market, 1st Quarter of 2009 (Statistical reflections)

Financing GHG emission reduction projects in agriculture in Ukraine - use options for markets related to the Kyoto Protocol

 
June 2009 1 
BELARUSIAN MONTHLY 
ECONOMIC REVIEW 
• New trends in Belarus-Russia relations. 
• Financial results of the enterprises worsen. 
• Belarus keeps on external borrowings. 
• Decrease of the consolidated revenues. 
Politics: New trends in Belarus-Russia relations 
In May, a session of the Council of Ministers of the Union state 
of Belarus and Russia took place. For the Belarusian side the 
access of the Belarusian commodities at the Russian market 
and obtaining the last tranche of the Russian loan of USD 500 
m were the issues of priority interest. For the Russian side the 
issue of access to the privatisation to the Belarusian milk-
processing enterprises was the key one. The parties failed to 
find a compromise on these issues, which resulted in a series 
of slashing statements by each of them. Later on, the Russian 
side prohibited the supply of the Belarusian milk products to its 
market, officially explaining it by the violation of the sanitary 
and epidemiological norms. The tensions between parties were 
mitigated during the session of the EvrAzES council in the be-
ginning of June. The member countries established an anti-
crisis fund of USD 10 bn and Russian Minister of Finance 
A. Kudrin stated that it might be a source for providing the ar-
gued tranche of USD 500 m to Belarus. However, the main 
outcome of the sitting was the agreement of Belarus, Russia 
and Kazakhstan to start the functioning of the custom union 
among them starting from January 1st, 2010. Furthermore, 
Russian Prime-Minister V. Putin stated that the countries are 
going to quit from the national negotiations on joining the WTO 
and are going to join it as the entire custom union. The latter is 
still rather doubtful, while, for instance, the chair of the WTO 
P. Lamy expressed his anxiety about this decision of the coun-
tries and admitted absence of such precedents. Furthermore, 
this step means postponing for an unspecified period of time 
joining the WTO for Russia and Kazakhstan that are rather 
close to finishing their negotiations, which is rather ambiguous 
for them from an economic point of view. For Belarus, this for-
mat of WTO negotiations might be desirable economically, but 
political tensions with Russia may hamper this scenario. For 
instance, in the middle of June Belarus ignored the session of 
the Organization of Agreement of Collective Defense, protest-
ing against Russia’s measures against its supply of milk prod-
ucts. At the moment the political relationships between Belarus 
and Russia seem to be at the crossroads, and the future of 
these relationships is rather unclear. 
Real sector: Financial results of the enterprises worsen 
In Jan-Apr, real GDP grew by 1.2% yoy that is by 0.1 per-
centage points more than in the 1st quarter. Agriculture (grew 
by 6.6% yoy) and trade and catering (grew by 5.5% yoy) 
became the “drivers” of the growth. In industry, the output 
dropped by 3.6% yoy, while the transport branch shrank by 
16.2% yoy. The depth of the fall in industry did not corre-
spond to the extent of the demand fall on the Belarusian 
goods. It resulted in the growth of the inventories by BYR 2.1 
trn in Jan-Apr (5.5% of the output during this period.) 
At the background of the positive growth rates, the financial 
results of the enterprises were deteriorating. The decrease of 
the net profits in Jan-Mar amounted to 37.8% yoy, while in 
industry separately it was 65.9% yoy. This considerable drop of 
profits undermines investment opportunities of the enterprises 
and leads to the decrease of the consolidated revenues, which 
might restrict the possibilities of stimulating economic growth. 
 
 
 
No. 6 (81) 
June 2009 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Population: 9.67 m 
Industry / GDP: 28.1% 
Agriculture / GDP: 8.4% 
Investment / GDP: 27.9% 
Export destination: Russia 32%, EU 44% 
Import origin: Russia 60%, EU 22% 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Real GDP growth 
5.8
4.7 5.0
6.8
11.4
9.4 9.9
8.2
10.0
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
% yoy
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Analysis. Forecast 
for 2009: IPM Research Center. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
IPM Research Center 
 
German Economic Team 
in Belarus  
 
50Б Zakharova St., Minsk 220088, Belarus 
Tel./fax (+375 17) 210 0105 
E-mail: bmer@research.by 
Internet http://research.by/ 
 
 
© IPM Research Center, 2009 
 
Belarusian Monthly Economic Review №6 (81) 
 
 
 
June 2009 2 
Structural trends: Belarus keeps on external borrowings 
In May, A. Lukashenka informed that he had refused to sell 
Gomel chemical plant to the Russian group “Eurohim” for 
USD 111 m, while he considered this price to be a “junk” one. 
Such a position and restricted access to private foreign bor-
rowing determines the choice of the external public borrowing 
as the main tool for the deficit financing. For using it, the limit 
of the external debt for 2009 was increased by 33% up to 
USD 8 bn. In June the press-release of the IMF mission was 
published, which suggest increasing loan from the IMF by 
SDR 651.4 m (about USD 1 bn). In case Belarus obtains the 
increased loan from the IMF, the last tranche from Russia and 
USD 125 m from the IBRD, then by the end of the 1st quarter 
of 2010 the external public debt will amount about 15-16% 
from GDP. This level of the external public debt is not a big 
threat from the fiscal point of view. But if the problem of the 
external deficit hasn’t been solved, the currency risks will be 
accumulating in the Belarusian economy. It may sharpen the 
problem of debt repayment for the budget and worsen re-
payment of private borrowings. 
Unfavorable tendencies are taking place in the energy sphere. 
Russia is trying to reduce the negotiating power of Belarus 
through realizing the projects of constructing gas and oil pipe-
lines bypassing Belarus. For instance, in June they informed 
about the beginning of the construction of the second part of 
the oil pipeline “BTS-2”, which may be a partial alternative to 
the pipeline “Druzhba”. Besides, the parties still cannot agree 
on the mechanism oil duties division and the value of tariffs 
for oil transportation after 2010. Belarusian government con-
siders the construction of a nuclear power-station as the core 
measure of the strategic energy safety. For this purpose, they 
applied for a loan of USD 9 bn from Russia, whose company is 
going to construct the station. However, both economic expe-
diency of the project and expediency of such borrowings from 
Russia still seem to be ambiguous. 
Foreign trade: Protectionist measures by Russia 
In Jan-Mar the deficit of merchandise trade amounted to USD 
1.9 bn, having increased by 2.5 times yoy. In comparison to 
GDP the deficit reached 17.8%. In trade with Russia the defi-
cit decreased by 33% yoy, but the surplus in trade with non-
CIS countries dropped by 94% yoy. This difference in trade 
dynamics was mainly determined by the dynamics of the en-
ergy resources prices. However, in trade with non-CIS coun-
tries other negative trends took place. The value of supply of 
potash fertilizers fell by 2.7 times yoy, of ferrous metals – by 
48% yoy. Overall in trade with non-CIS countries the average 
prices of exports decreased by 34.4%, while the physical vol-
ume – by 21.1% yoy. The decrease of the average imports 
prices and physical volumes was much less – by 1.5 and 
11.9% yoy correspondingly. 
In trade with Russia, the drop of imports physical volume (by 
17.8% yoy) was considerably less than those of exports (by 
32.8% yoy) as well. It was consequent to the decrease of the 
demand at the Russian market. At the same time, Belarusian 
enterprises kept on rather high level of output due to increas-
ing inventories and for this kept on importing intermediary 
goods from Russia. Belarusian authorities hope for a prompt 
recovering of the external demand. But it should be men-
tioned that Russian protectionist measures in regard to Bela-
rusian industrial and food products create additional barriers 
for the Belarusian exports and its perspectives. 
Public finance: Decrease of the consolidated revenues 
Consolidated revenues kept on falling and in 1st quarter of 
 
GDP and Industrial Output 
-5
0
5
10
15
Ja
n
.0
8
Fe
b
.0
8
M
ar
.0
8
A
p
r.
0
8
M
ay
.0
8
Ju
n.
08
Ju
l.
0
8
A
u
g
.0
8
S
ep
.0
8
O
ct
.0
8
N
ov
.0
8
D
e
c.
0
8
Ja
n
.0
9
Fe
b
.0
9
M
ar
.0
9
A
p
r.
0
9
real GDP growth
real industrial output growth
% yoy cum.
Source: National Statistical Committee. 
 
 
 
 
 
Net profit by in the branches of industry 
Jan-Mar 2009 BYR bn % yoy* 
Industry, total 746.2 -65.9 
Electric power 99.3 45.1 
Fuel 142.2 -64.1 
Ferrous metallurgy 59.4 -63.0 
Chemical and petrochemical 
industry 
302.7 -55.8 
Machinery and 
metalworking: 
127.6 -74.5 
Electro technical industry 7.4 -82.9 
Machine building and in-
struments 
1.5 -61.9 
Auto industry 2.9 -98.1 
Tractor building and agri-
cultural machinery 
29.7 -79.0 
Logging, woodworking, pulp 
and paper 
7.5 -89.1 
Building materials 40.4 -0.5 
Light 7.6 -74.1 
Food -69.4 -- 
Economy, overall 2159.0 -37.8 
* growth rate in nominal terms. 
Source: National Statistical Committee. 
 
 
 
 
 
Merchandise Trade 
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Ja
n
.0
8
Fe
b
.0
8
M
a
r.
0
8
A
p
r.
0
8
M
a
y.
0
8
Ju
n
.0
8
Ju
l.0
8
A
ug
.0
8
S
e
p.
08
O
ct
.0
8
N
ov
.0
8
D
ec
.0
8
Ja
n.
09
Fe
b
.0
9
M
ar
.0
9
-900
-750
-600
-450
-300
-150
0
150
balance (right axis)
exports
imports
USD m
Source: National Statistical Committee. 
Belarusian Monthly Economic Review №6 (81) 
 
 
 
June 2009 3 
2009 amounted to 46.5% of GDP, which is 7.7 percentage 
points less than in previous year (6.3 percentage points in Jan-
Feb). Consolidated expenditures in the 1st quarter amounted 
to 44.4% of GDP, which by 1.3 percentage points less that in 
the previous year. Finally, the budget surplus in the 1st quar-
ter amounted to 2.1 of GDP (8.5% in the 1st quarter of 2008). 
According to the President’s Edict consolidated revenues and 
expenditures were set at the level of BYR 54.9 trn. De-facto 
the budget sequestration by BYR 11 trn (de-jure by BYR 2.8 
trn) took place. It is supposed that in case of favorable eco-
nomic situation, the consolidated revenues will reach the level 
of BYR 54.9 trn. In that case, BYR 8.2 trn will be placed at the 
President’s reserve fund. The sequestration of the budget 
touched provision of subsidies to the oil-refiners (by about 
BYR 4.3 trn), expenditures of the social security fund (BYR 
1.5 trn) and financing of state programs (BYR 1.3 trn). Thus, 
during the crisis the possibilities of fiscal stimulating of the 
domestic demand are substantially restricted. 
Monetary policy: Deceleration of crediting 
In April, net foreign assets of the monetary authorities shrank 
by 10.8% mom (by USD 419.1 m). However, money supply 
was expanded due to the withdrawal of the government’s ru-
ble deposits at the NBB (decline by 36.7% mom) and refi-
nancing of banks (increase by 23.2% mom). Finally, base 
money grew in April by 10.3% mom, while in annual terms it 
dropped by 3.6% yoy (14.2% yoy in March). 
Despite liquidity injections, crediting of the real sector was still 
declining, because banks still felt lack of resources. Hence, 
claims on real sector by banks increased by 1.3% mom, while 
declined in annual terms by 5.1 percentage points down to 
54.0% yoy. Deposits of juridical persons were falling because a 
huge part of their working capital is concentrated in invento-
ries. Feeling this lack of liquidity banks kept high interest rates 
in national currency, trying to attract households’ deposits. 
However, interest rates in hard currency were reduced accord-
ing to the recommendation by the NBB. In this situation, 
households were still passive in depositing, while the cash in 
circulation was growing. Finally, ruble money grew by 
1.9% mom, while dropped by 2.2% yoy (growth of 1.2% yoy 
in March) in annual terms. Broad money grew by 1.0% mom 
and in annual terms by 23.4% yoy (27.3% yoy in March). 
Consumer prices in April grew by 0.4% mom and in annual 
terms inflation decreased down to 14.7 yoy (15.5% yoy in 
March). The Belarusian ruble was appreciated by 2.0% 
through April-May against US dollar, being within the target 
corridor of the NBB currency basket. As of May 31, its ex-
change rate was 2780 USD/BYR. 
Banking sector: Stimulating the economy through 
privileged loans for construction 
In June a President’s Edict was signed, according to which the 
interest rates on privileged loans for construction of accommo-
dation for families with more than two children was reduced 
from 3 to 1% annually. These loans are provided by Belarus-
bank, while the difference in interest rates is compensated by 
the budget. Before in May, Minsk local government agreed with 
Belarusbank a new mechanism of provision privileged loans in 
the capital. This mechanism substantially expands the access to 
privileged loans by households. Thus authorities seem to stimu-
late house-investment demand and construction branch in the 
economy. From the view of the whole economy, this measure 
may be effective for stimulating growth. However, it may lead 
to worsening situation with liquidity of Belarusbank, whose 
stance is extremely important for the whole banking system. 
Consolidated Budget 
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ja
n
.0
8
Fe
b
.0
8
M
ar
.0
8
A
p
r.
0
8
M
ay
.0
8
Ju
n
.0
8
Ju
l.0
8
A
ug
.0
8
S
e
p
.0
8
O
ct
.0
8
N
o
v.
08
D
e
c.
0
8
Ja
n.
09
Fe
b.
0
9
M
a
r.
0
9
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
balance (right axis)
revenues
expenditures
% of GDP
Source: calculations based on the National Statistical 
Committee data. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Monetary Base and СPI 
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
Ja
n.
0
8
F
eb
.0
8
M
ar
.0
8
A
pr
.0
8
M
ay
.0
8
Ju
n
.0
8
Ju
l.
0
8
A
u
g.
08
S
ep
.0
8
O
ct
.0
8
N
o
v.
08
D
ec
.0
8
Ja
n
.0
9
Fe
b
.0
9
M
a
r.
0
9
A
p
r.
0
9
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CPI (right axis) monetary base
% yoy eop % yoy
 
Source: calculations based on the National Statistical 
Committee and the NBB data. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Refinancing rate 
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Ja
n
.0
8
Fe
b
.0
8
M
ar
.0
8
A
p
r.
0
8
M
ay
.0
8
Ju
n
.0
8
Ju
l.
0
8
A
u
g
.0
8
S
ep
.0
8
O
ct
.0
8
N
o
v.
0
8
D
ec
.0
8
Ja
n
.0
9
Fe
b
.0
9
M
ar
.0
9
A
p
r.
0
9
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
real (right axis) nominal
% per annum
Source: calculations based on National Statistical 
Committee and the NBB data. 
 
Belarusian Monthly Economic Review №6 (81) 
 
 
 
June 2009 4 
Economic Trends  Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 
Feb 
09 
Mar 
09 
Apr. 
09 
GDP growth % yoy 8.9 8.4 7.3 10.9 10.1 11.2 7.5 1.1 -- -- -- 
GDP growth % yoy cum. 8.6 8.4 8.2 10.9 10.4 10.7 10.0 1.1 2.3 1.1 1.2 
Industrial Production % yoy cum. 7.7 8.2 8.5 14.7 13.0 13.1 10.8 -4.5 -2.3 -4.5 -3.6 
Agricultural Production % yoy cum. 5.2 5.6 4.1 6.8 5.4 6.9 8.9 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.6 
CPI % yoy eop 7.2 9.0 12.1 13.2 16.0 16.3 13.3 15.5 15.7 15.5 14.7 
PPI % yoy eop 13.6 16.8 17.1 13.5 16.2 18.5 14.2 21.4 21.4 21.4 19.2 
Merchandise export (USD)* % yoy 23.3 18.5 44.4 69.2 56.0 44.9 -11.6 -48.8 -49.7 -50.0 -- 
Merchandise import (USD)* % yoy 23.7 23.8 42.4 56.5 55.3 53.1 -1.5 -31.9 -31.4 -31.5 -- 
Merchandise trade balance 
(NBB data) 
USD m cum. -1563 -2304 -3858 -647 -2049 -3835 -6104 -1780 -1049 -1783 -2520 
Current account USD m cum. -1152 -1652 -2944 -433 -1411 -2920 -5049 -- -- -- -- 
Current account % GDP cum -5.8 -5.1 -6.6 -3.6 -5.5 -6.6 -8.0 -- -- -- -- 
International reserves USD m eop 2344 2155 4182 4746 4618 4120 3061 3955 3327 3955 3565 
Monetary base % yoy eop 29 25 38 59 54 48 12 -14.2 0.4 -14.2 -3.6 
Lending rate** % p.a. aop 11 12 12 11 10 11 14 17 18 16 16 
Exchange rate 
(official) 
USD aop 2145 2147 2152 2148 2136 2114 2147 2772 2807 2845 2829 
Exchange rate 
(official) 
EUR aop 2890 2948 3115 3215 3339 3183 2827 3614 3595 3704 3732 
* Growth rates in value terms (source: Ministry of Statistics and Analysis). 
** Nominal rate of commercial banks for new loans for legal entities in national currency. 
Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Analysis, NBB. 
 
Key Economic Indicators 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 
Nominal GDP* BYR trn 26.613 36.565 49.991 65.067 79.231 97.165 128.828 
Nominal GDP** USD bn 14.5 17.7 23.1 30.2 36.9 45.2 60.3 
GDP Growth % yoy 5.0 7.0 11.4 9.4 9.9 8.6 10.0 
Industrial production % yoy 4.5 7.1 15.9 10.5 11.3 8.5 10.8 
Agricultural production % yoy 0.7 6.6 12.6 1.7 6.1 4.1 8.9 
CPI % yoy aop 42.6 28.4 18.1 10.3 7.0 8.4 14.8 
CPI % yoy eop 34.8 25.4 14.4 8.0 6.6 12.1 13.3 
PPI % yoy aop 41.4 37.5 24.1 12.1 8.3 16.2 15.6 
PPI % yoy eop 42.7 28.1 18.8 10.0 8.5 17.1 14.2 
Exports (gs, USD) % yoy 9.8 24.4 35.7 15.8 21.8 24.3 35.5 
Imports (gs, USD) % yoy 9.0 25.1 40.3 3.0 33.0 27.9 37.6 
Current account USD m –311 –424 –1206 510 –1512 -2944 -5049 
Current account % GDP –2.1 –2.4 –5.2 1.7 –4.1 -6.6 -8.0 
FDI (net) USD m 453 170 163 303 351 1770 2143 
International reserves USD m 457 474 770 1297 1383 4182 3467 
Fiscal balance % GDP –0.2 –1.6 0.0 –0.6 2.2 0.6 0.9 
Domestic public debt % GDP eop 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.7 
External debt (total) % GDP eop 27.0 23.7 21.4 17.9 18.6 28.4 24.6 
Monetary base % yoy eop 32 50 42 74 20 38 12 
Exchange rate (official)* USD aop 1784 2075 2160 2154 2145 2146 2136 
Exchange rate (official)* USD eop 1920 2156 2170 2152 2140 2150 2200 
Exchange rate (official)* EUR aop 1690 2353 2684 2681 2692 2937 3135 
Exchange rate (official)* EUR eop 1989 2695 2956 2550 2817 3167 3077 
* On January 1, 2000 the Belarusian ruble was denominated 1:1000. All figures for 1999 are given in ‘new’ Belarusian rubles. 
** For the period of 1999–2000, GDP in USD is calculated by using the market (unofficial) exchange rate (source: IPM Re-
search Center). 
Sources: National Statistical Comittee, Ministry of Finance, NBB, IPM Research Center. 
 
Notes: 
aop average of period gs goods and services 
avg average trn trillion 
bn Billion NBB National Bank of Belarus 
cum. cumulative p.a. per annum 
eop end of period yoy year-on-year 
m million ytd year-to-date 
 


Belarusian Monthly Economic Review, \u21166(81), June 2009

Newsletter no. 38. Decentralisation, corruption and supervision of local budgets in Croatia

A chance for the Ukrainian GTS-2009: between geo-politics, economy and presidential elections

  
 
1 
 
The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in 
Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. Dr 
Milan Jazbec, Member of the International Institute IFIMES, presents and analyses 
at the occasion of the 60th anniversary of NATO and of the 5th anniversary of the 
Slovene membership as well as at the enlargement with Albania and Croatia, the 
Slovene experiences. He points out some most important conclusions and 
recommendations for the benefit of future member countries from the Western 
Balkans. His article »Slovenia and NATO: A Handful of Useful Experience« is 
published in its entirety. 
 
 
 
 
Dr Milan JAZBEC  
- Member of the International Institute IFIMES 
 
 
 
SLOVENIA AND NATO:  A HANDFUL OF USEFUL 
EXPERIENCES 
 
 
 
In the May Declaration from 1989, Slovenia laid down its membership ambition in 
the Euro Atlantic integration process. With this, the independence project became a 
structural part of the integration revival across Europe, as well as its reflection. 
During the early nineties a lively discussion was on the way to solve the security 
dilemma of the newborn state, spanning from classical neutrality to the membership 
status in the Alliance. The latter was formalized as a foreign policy priority in the 
amendments to the Resolution on the Starting Points of the National Security 
Strategy, adopted by the Slovene Parliament in January 1994. In the following years 
two events could be pointed out, namely the NATO Madrid Summit in June 1997 and 
launching of the Alliance’s new tool for the candidate countries, the Membership 
Action Plan. 
 
  
 
2 
A DECADE FOR THE MEMBERSHIP 
 
Slovenia achieved its membership ambition during the course of a decade – from 
January 1994 till March 2004, a series of events, activities and processes took place, 
with the broad participation of the political and expert communities, as well as the 
broader public, governmental and nongovernmental institutions, various individuals 
and media, be it from Slovenia or from NATO member countries and structures, as 
well as from third countries. 
 
In March 1994, Slovenia was the first among the aspirant countries to join the newly 
established Partnership for Peace Programme. It was also the first one, which 
established the Interministerial Working Group for achieving NATO membership, 
consisting of senior officials from various ministries and agencies. This was followed 
by broad and intensified participation in various programmes and activities, offered 
by the Alliance, to prepare the interested countries for the membership. The whole 
proces included military, defense, security, political and other sectors, which referred 
to NATO and its programmes. The political aspect stood out in particular during the 
years 1996 and 1997, in the period preceding directly the Madrid Summit, when 
Slovene expectations were very high, articulating in the expectation of invitation.  
   
Foreign policy and diplomatic activities, combined with the results of the reform 
proces, contributed to the support of influential member countries, although the 
much desired invitation was not extended to Slovenia, primarily due to off-stage 
political combinations. This resulted, from one point of view, in an obvious 
disappointment of the main political protagonists in membership, but from another 
point of view – what became appearant only later – opened vast space for the 
continuation of the reform process. It became broader, more coherent and 
continuous, with upgraded and in-depth communication with the Alliance and its 
member states. At the end of the 1997 Slovenia established its mission to NATO. 
 
In the beginning of 1998, the Slovene Government presented its national strategy for 
NATO membership, which helped to keep the momentum and the ambition alive. A 
couple of months later, NATO organized in Slovenia, for the first time on the territory 
of a partner country, the Cooperative Adventure Exchange military exercise with 
participation of more than 6000 soldiers from many member and partner countries. 
This was actually the first encounter of Slovenia with NATO on such a broad basis. 
 
In the autumn of 1999 Slovenia starts participating in the Membership Action Plan 
(MAP), the new NATO tool for candidate countries. MAP presents a broad document, 
which helps to bring countries closer to the membership, with particular emphasis on 
five areas, namely political-economic, defense, resources, security and legal. It 
focuses on continuity and broadness of the reform process, results of which should be 
shown through constant, indepth and demanding dialog with the Alliance. The 
experiences of the previous seven members show they were much better prepared for 
  
 
3 
the membership than the three from 1997. It also shows that Slovenia has usefully 
invested time from Madrid 1997 to Prague 2002. 
   
The Slovene public opinion support for the membership differed through the 
mentioned decade. It was more or less in favor of the membership, though support 
fell below 40% a couple of times. From mid 2001 till March 2003, when the 
membership referendum took place, a lively and broad, from time to time also very 
polemic, public discussion about the membership was on its way. The public 
awareness campaign touched upon various topics (like the necessity of membership 
as such, costs, alternatives), which above all established broad, indepth and direct 
communication between public and representatives of the defense, military and 
security structures. That was an important dimension in the Slovene public discourse 
on current political issues. Slovenia stands out among the group of 2004 members 
with this experience. The positive result from the referendum (66% in favor, 60% 
turnout) was an important political back-up for membership, which, following the 
invitation from the Prague Summit in November 2002, materialized on March 23, 
2004 (a year after the referendum).  
 
USEFUL AND HETEROGENEOUS EXPERIENCE 
 
Slovenia’s cooperation with and within NATO so far presents a handful of useful and 
heterogeneous experience for its further activities, as well as for future member 
countries, in particular those from the Western Balkans. This experience could be 
viewed from three points in time, namely from the decade of pre-membership 
activities, after the first membership year, and after five years of membership. 
 
Firstly, the membership project was conceptualized and perceived as a state project 
and not as of only the Foreign and the Defense Ministries and the Slovene Armed 
Forces, although their activities dominated in the public eye. This was to a certain 
extend normal, hence additional attention for other aspects of NATO activities (like 
its science programmes, environmental issues, education and scholarship issues) was 
necessary. One could point out the following areas with the richest experience from 
the mentioned period: defense, military, security, organizational, psychological, 
sociological and the media. Having in mind the direct relation with the Alliance, the 
following aspects stood out: a realistic approach in planning and execution (not to 
promise anything beyond capabilities, or what could not be fulfilled), the ability to 
show constant progress in the defense reform process and transparency at work 
(what directly raises the level of solidarity within the Alliance). The Alliance was 
expecting and encouraging a responsible relationship and cooperation of the 
executive branch of power with the legislative one (after all, national parliaments 
execute democratic control of armed forces and ratify the accession protocols) as well 
as overall open and constant communication with the public (from Autumn 2001 till 
Spring 2004 more than hundred of public debates at various levels and media all 
around Slovenia took place, with participation of both NATO pros and cons). 
  
 
4 
   
Secondly, some experiences from the first membership year have been those from 
the previous period, although much stronger, and some new have arisen. The 
membership is above all the beginning of the process and not its end (some new 
members have understood this the other way round). A certain part of this experience 
is visible to the outsiders as a bureaucratic and also political routine, the major part 
however as a demanding organizational endeavor, which depends on the efficiency of 
home institutions and of their foreign policy making capabilities. A lot is being 
expected from a new member, although there are no special demands from her. If the 
new member state is not active and does not participate in various processes, it finds 
herself sooner or later on the margin of the Alliance. One could also say that 
membership is a very demanding conceptual and substantial change, for which no 
preparation is sufficient. In these dynamics, the focal point is aimed towards a fast 
and smooth structural adaptation of, primarily, foreign and defense ministries to the 
North Atlantic Council weekly routine work. Additionally, special attention has to be 
devoted to substance and policy making, since the increasing information workload 
could easily push substance aside. The defense planning system (resources and 
procurement in particular) and personnel policy tremendously gain in importance. 
Membership opens new promotion opportunities within various structures of the 
Alliance (the Slovene representative Ms. Edita Štok became the first chairwoman of 
the NATO medical committee, in autumn 2004). The dialogue with the public, 
however, remains an utmost priority. 
 
Thirdly, the fifth membership anniversary points out the importance and 
demanding nature of some of previous experiences and picks up some new ones. 
There is a well-established practice of learning from previous members within the 
Alliance, but also gaining specific experience from the new ones is part of this 
practice. Each single enlargement takes place in different security environment, 
which means that new members bring their particular historical, cultural and 
political tradition into the Alliance. A synergy of all of this is useful for all. 
Forwarding already gained experience to candidate countries and to all, who show 
interest for this, is part of the expected behavior within the Alliance. Year-long 
membership would mean the upgrading of all previous experiences, but also a need 
to deepen, expand and enrich them. This presents a never-ending process, which 
inspires the philosophy of enlargement and transformation. Its core presents the 
defense planning system and the capability maintenance; hence, a highly responsible 
and serious approach to constant fulfilment of the Alliance’s mission is in place all the 
time. Each further enlargement has to prove this progressively. 
   
CONCLUSION  
 
Two aspects are of special importance while contemplating, generalizing and 
forwarding the Slovene NATO experience to those interested in it. Firstly, the 
membership ambition was a way of structural inclusion of Slovenia in the 
  
 
5 
international community and in the Euro Atlantic integration process in particular. 
Secondly, it was the way to establishing the national defense, military and security 
system, which would refer to the changed security environment after the end of the 
Cold War. The whole process was executed transparently and in the final phase highly 
intensive, with a careful attitude towards, and critically seen by, the public. Only a 
handful involved viewed the membership with euphoria, and Slovenia was clearly an 
exemption with such approach. For a great part of the supporters of the membership 
ambition, this never was only a point in the air, which should be achieved as soon as 
possible, whatever the costs and gains. 
 
During the course of the years membership becomes a relatively boring routine for 
outsiders and remains a demanding political and organizational process for insiders. 
For the sake of both a permanent and transparent relation with public opinion is 
necessary. Each member state hosts sooner or later important NATO events and also 
important activities of the Alliance, like peace support operations and missions (for 
example Afghanistan), reflect critically in the public eye. Again, constant dialogue 
with the public is important from various points of view. Last but not least, the 
support of member states for the enlargement process also depends on public opinion 
support. 
 
For Slovenia all these aspects share additional importance because of its support for 
the membership ambition of the Western Balkans countries. Their membership and 
activities in various NATO programmes as well as in the Alliance as such directly 
contribute to security and stability of the region. A welcoming of Albania and Croatia 
to the membership is a very important point in the history of enlargement. 
 
 
Ljubljana, 30 March 2009                                    
                                                                     International Institute for Middle-East 
                          and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) – Ljubljana 
 
                                                                     Directors: 
               Bakhtyar Aljaf                                                                
                         Zijad Bećirović, M.Sc. 
 
 
 
                                                     


Policy Documentation Center

Not a member yet

Major changes in the labour market, 1st Quarter of 2009 (Statistical reflections)

Financing GHG emission reduction projects in agriculture in Ukraine - use options for markets related to the Kyoto Protocol

Belarusian Monthly Economic Review, \u21166(81), June 2009

Newsletter no. 38. Decentralisation, corruption and supervision of local budgets in Croatia

A chance for the Ukrainian GTS-2009: between geo-politics, economy and presidential elections

Slovenia and NATO: a handful of useful experience

Slovenian - Croatian border dispute: a political perspective

Shadows of the early parliamentary elections

The Ukrainian intellectuals in the Mediacratia epoch

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Local Communities in Moldova

5,270

5,911