Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
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Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone
Get PDFArctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century.</jats:p
Insights into the diet and feeding behavior of immature polar cod (Boreogadus saida) from the under‐ice habitat of the central Arctic Ocean
Get PDFPolar cod (Boreogadus saida) is an endemic key species of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem. The ecology of this forage fish is well studied in Arctic shelf habitats where a large part of its population lives. However, knowledge about its ecology in the central Arctic Ocean (CAO), including its use of the sea-ice habitat, is hitherto very limited. To increase this knowledge, samples were collected at the under-ice surface during several expeditions to the CAO between 2012 and 2020, including the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The diet of immature B. saida and the taxonomic composition of their potential prey were analysed, showing that both sympagic and pelagic species were important prey items. Stomach contents included expected prey such as copepods and amphipods. Surprisingly, more rarely observed prey such as appendicularians, chaetognaths, and euphausiids were also found to be important. Comparisons of the fish stomach contents with prey distribution data suggests opportunistic feeding. However, relative prey density and catchability are important factors that determine which type of prey is ingested. Prey that ensures limited energy expenditure on hunting and feeding is often found in the stomach contents even though it is not the dominant species present in the environment. To investigate the importance of prey quality and quantity for the growth of B. saida in this area, we measured energy content of dominant prey species and used a bioenergetic model to quantify the effect of variations in diet on growth rate potential. The modeling results suggest that diet variability was largely explained by stomach fullness and, to a lesser degree, the energetic content of the prey. Our results suggest that under climate change, immature B. saida may be at least equally sensitive to a loss in the number of efficiently hunted prey than to a reduction in the prey's energy content. Consequences for the growth and survival of B. saida will not depend on prey presence alone, but also on prey catchability, digestibility, and energy content
Surfing the heatwave: Understanding the influence of marine heatwaves in driving community dynamics and species performance in the North Sea
Get PDFAs a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, the frequency, duration and magnitude of extreme weather events are increasing and expected to rise further in the coming decades. Among them, marine heatwaves (MHWs) are driving significant ecological changes worldwide, including mass mortalities, shifts in species distributions, and biodiversity loss. Growing concerns about MHW impacts have led to intensified research efforts to define, categorize, and assess their consequences across different levels of biological organisation.
Despite this increasing attention, key knowledge gaps remain. The unpredictable nature of MHWs makes it challenging to quantify their effects on marine communities. Moreover, most studies on climate change focus on rising mean temperatures, often overlooking biological responses to thermal fluctuations, which can differ from those under constant conditions. Research has also largely concentrated on coral reefs and fish, with less attention to plankton, a key component of marine food webs.
This thesis quantifies MHW effects on individuals, populations and communities using zooplankton as model organisms. It consists of two main blocks: (1) analysing historical time series data to assess MHW impacts on mesozooplankton in the North Sea and (2) conducting laboratory experiments to evaluate how present and future MHWs affect the survival, growth, and phenology of meroplankton larvae.
Findings reveal that MHW impacts on zooplankton communities vary by season, emphasizing the need for season-specific studies. Copepods, a key zooplankton group, are unable to adjust their phenology in response to MHWs occurring before their bloom. The lack of a phenological shift, combined with rising MHW days and temperature increase rates, can lead to faster and more or less intense blooms, with potential repercussions for higher trophic levels. The thesis also shows that MHW effects on species performance differ from those of general warming, as MHW components interact in complex ways. Species resilient to warmer temperature or invasive species may benefit from MHWs, often at the expense of native species. As MHWs continue to grow stronger, more frequent and longer, understanding the link between their components and their ecological and socio-economic consequences will become increasingly crucial
A Lagrangian Model‐Based Analysis of Protist Plankton Variability and Its Impact on Organic Matter Dynamics Along Transit Pathways Through the Fram Strait
Get PDFAbstractThe Arctic Ocean is characterized by substantial seasonal and inter‐annual variability, of which the sources and impacts are not yet fully understood. Here, we analyze how much of the variability found in in situ observations of biogeochemical and ecological variables collected at the Long‐Term Ecological Research Observatory HAUSGARTEN can be explained by differences in the physical conditions in the water masses passing through the Fram Strait (FS). Employing a size‐based plankton ecosystem model with nine distinct size classes of protist phyto‐ and zooplankton, we simulate standing stocks and fluxes within the nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus pools in water parcels that follow trajectories tracing the opposing East‐Greenland and West‐Spitsbergen currents through the FS. Our model results agree with in situ observations of biogeochemical tracers, plankton size measurements, climatological data, and remote sensing observations. They show distinct temporal developments in plankton size composition, growth, and export in trajectory ensembles, highlighting how variable physical conditions affect the communities' specific growth histories. Our study indicates that 10%–72% of the variability in upper water column tracer concentrations observed in the FS can be attributed to differences in water parcel trajectories. The maxima of net primary production and vertical export along the trajectories occurred in some (spatial and temporal) distance upstream of the sites of in situ sampling. This study shows that Lagrangian modeling helps clarify complex biogeochemical‐ecological relationships in highly dynamic systems such as the FS, which is urgently needed to understand the role of climate change in the Arctic carbon cycle.</jats:sec
Beyond blooms: the winter ecosystem reset determines microeukaryotic community dynamics in the Fram Strait
Get PDFThe Arctic Ocean is undergoing a major transition as a result of global warming, with uncertain consequences for its ecosystems. Our study introduces an integrated analytical approach using co-occurrence networks, convergent cross-mapping, and energy landscape analysis. Applied to four years of amplicon data from Fram Strait, located at the boundary between Arctic and Atlantic waters, our method identifies keystone species in seasonal microbial communities, elucidates causal interactions, and predicts stable configurations across changing environments. We find strong evidence for a “winter reset”, implying that organisms representing the spring bloom are largely determined by prevailing environmental conditions during winter. In addition, our analysis suggests that winter communities may adapt more readily to expected Atlantification than summer communities. These results highlight the utility of innovative time-series analyses in disentangling ecosystem dynamics. This approach provides critical insights into Arctic ecological interactions, dynamics, and resilience and aids in understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change
Sustainability: We need to focus on overall system outcomes rather than simplistic targets
Get PDFMany of the global challenges that confront humanity are interlinked in a dynamic complex network, with multiple feedback loops, nonlinear interactions and interdependencies that make it difficult, if not impossible, to consider individual threats in isolation. These challenges are mainly dealt with, however, by considering individual threats in isolation (at least in political terms). The mitigation of dual climate and biodiversity threats, for example, is linked to a univariate 1.5°C global warming boundary and a global area conservation target of 30% by 2030. The situation has been somewhat improved by efforts to account for interactions through multidimensional target setting, adaptive and open management and market-based decision pathways. But the fundamental problem still remains—that complex systems such as those formed by the network of global threats have emergent properties that are more than the sum of their parts. We must learn how to deal with or live with these properties if we are to find effective ways to cope with the threats, individually and collectively. Here, we argue that recent progresses in complex systems research and related fields have enhanced our ability to analyse and model such entwined systems to the extent that it offers the promise of a new approach to sustainability. We discuss how this may be achieved, both in theory and in practice, and how human cultural factors play an important but neglected role that could prove vital to achieving success. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog
A temperature‐controlled, circular maintenance system for studying growth and development of pelagic tunicates (salps)
Get PDFSalps have attracted attention as zooplankton organisms that may be able to expand their habitat range and increase their ecological importance in the face of ongoing global warming. Due to their gelatinous nature, unique feeding strategy, and reproductive ecology such changes could have profound impacts on regional marine ecosystems. While their role in the regional carbon cycle is receiving attention, our knowledge of their physiology and life cycle is still limited. This knowledge gap is mainly due to their fragile gelatinous nature, which makes it difficult to capture and maintain intact specimen in the laboratory. We present here a modified kreisel tank system that has been tested onboard a research vessel with the Southern Ocean salp Salpa thompsoni and at a research station with Salpa fusiformis and Thalia democratica from the Mediterranean Sea. Successful maintenance over days to weeks allowed us to obtain relative growth and developmental rates comparable to in situ field samples of S. thompsoni and S. fusiformis, and provided insights into previously unknown features of their life cycle (e.g., testes development). Our results show that traditional methods of estimating growth, such as cohort analysis, may lead to a general overestimation of growth rates and neglect individual strategies (e.g., shrinkage), which can affect the results and conclusions drawn from population dynamic models. By providing a starting point for the successful maintenance of different species, comparable experiments on the physiology of salps is made possible. This will contribute to refining model parameters and improving the reliability of the predictions
Late Holocene Dust Deposition Fluxes Over the Entire South Atlantic Ocean
Get PDFMineral dust accumulated on the ocean floor is an important archive for reconstructing past atmospheric circulation changes and climatological conditions in the source areas. Dust emitted from Southern Hemisphere dust sources is widely deposited over the oceans. However, there are few records of dust deposition over the open ocean, and a large need for extended geographical coverage exists. We present a large data set (134 surface sediment samples) of Late Holocene dust deposition from seafloor surface sediments covering the entire South Atlantic Ocean. Polymodal grain-size distributions of the lithogenic fraction indicate that the sediments are composed of multiple sediment components. By using end-member modeling, we attempt to disentangle the dust signal from non-aeolian sediments. Combined with 230Th-normalized lithogenic fluxes, we quantified the specific deposition fluxes for mineral dust, crrent-sorted sediments and ice-rafted debris (IRD). Although the method could not completely separate the different components in every region, it shows that dust deposition off the most prominent dust source for the South Atlantic Ocean—southern South America—amounts up to approximately 0.7 g cm−2 Kyr−1 and decreases downwind. Bottom-current-sorted sediments and IRD are mostly concentrated around the continental margins. The ratio of the coarse to fine dust end members reveals input from north African dust sources to the South Atlantic. The majority of the observations are in good agreement with new model simulations. This extensive and relevant data set of dust grain size and deposition fluxes to the South Atlantic could be used to calibrate and validate further model simulations
Plankton community changes during the last 124 000 years in the subarctic Bering Sea derived from sedimentary ancient DNA
No full textCurrent global warming results in rising sea-water temperatures, and the loss of sea ice in Arctic and subarctic oceans impacts the community composition of primary producers with cascading effects on the food web and potentially on carbon export rates. This study analyzes metagenomic shotgun and diatom rbcL amplicon sequencing data from sedimentary ancient DNA of the subarctic western Bering Sea that records phyto- and zooplankton community changes over the last glacial-interglacial cycles, including the last interglacial period (Eemian). Our data show that interglacial and glacial plankton communities differ, with distinct Eemian and Holocene plankton communities. The generally warm Holocene period is dominated by picosized cyanobacteria and bacteria-feeding heterotrophic protists, while the Eemian period is dominated by eukaryotic picosized chlorophytes and Triparmaceae. By contrast, the glacial period is characterized by microsized phototrophic protists, including sea ice-associated diatoms in the family Bacillariaceae and co-occurring diatom-feeding crustaceous zooplankton. Our deep-time record of plankton community changes reveals a long-term decrease in phytoplankton cell size coeval with increasing temperatures, resembling community changes in the currently warming Bering Sea. The phytoplankton community in the warmer-than-present Eemian period is distinct from modern communities and limits the use of the Eemian as an analog for future climate scenarios. However, under enhanced future warming, the expected shift toward the dominance of small-sized phytoplankton and heterotrophic protists might result in an increased productivity, whereas the community's potential of carbon export will be decreased, thereby weakening the subarctic Bering Sea's function as an effective carbon sink
Dataset from RNAseq analysis of differential gene expression among developmental stages of two non-marine ostracodes
Get PDFWe contribute transcriptomic data for two species of Ostracoda, an early-diverged group of small-sized pancrustaceans. Data include new reference transcriptomes for two asexual non-marine species (Dolerocypris sinensis and Heterocypris aff. salina), as well as single-specimen transcriptomic data that served to analyse gene expression across four developmental stages in D. sinensis. Data are evaluated by computing gene expression profiles of the different developmental stages which consistently placed eggs and small larvae (at the stage of instar A-8) similar to each other, and apart from adults which were distinct from all other developmental stages but closest to large larvae (instar A-4). We further evaluated the transcriptomic data with two newly sequenced low-coverage genomes of the target species. The new data thus document the feasibility of obtaining reliable transcriptomic data from single specimens – even eggs – of these small metazoans