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The pursuit of offshore natural gas development: theoretical insights and the case of Cyprus
Get PDFThis thesis researches the conditions under which Cyprus pursues offshore natural gas (ONG) development in the East Mediterranean. The period under study is roughly the last two decades, ending in 2020 when Covid-19 freezes for considerable time most hydrocarbon activities. Using the theoretical approaches of Neoliberal Institutionalism (NLI) and Structural Realism (SR) to examine Cyprus’ gas development, this thesis tests whether the theoretical expectations of these two overarching theories are supported or undermined. Institutions, gains and interdependence are the core theoretical concepts employed as independent variables.
Elaborating on these concepts, core differences between the two theoretical approaches are extracted, from which the theoretical expectations are built. Semi-structured interviews, official reports, statements and speeches, mainly taken from the Cypriot side, but also from regional states, are the key-primary sources of relevant findings, informing the conditions under which Cyprus pursues ONG development. The analysis is separated into three chronologically defined periods that are marked by major developments in the trajectory of gas exploration in Cypriot waters. I systematically examine each of the major events that either facilitate or constrain gas development in each of those periods, by applying three expectations, each from NLI and SR. Evidence shows that Cyprus inclines to NLI expectations, related to institutions formed with regional states such as the ‘tripartites’, and defence alliances, or international organizations such as the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN). Cyprus also inclines to interdependence with regional states, and global powers such as France and the United States (US), as well as to mutually beneficial projects with regional states. By following such NLI pathways, Cyprus seeks to develop its ONG on the one hand and to create conditions of security for its safe execution on the other hand. Expert interviews, supported by extensive government documentation show that Cyprus’ authorities have not oriented the state towards a self-help system, as SR would argue, to cover any security deficits that participation in institutions might produce. Cyprus’ contribution to its own security, and the security of its maritime rights, is therefore minimal. Turkey, a neighbouring and powerful regional state, disputes the maritime and sovereignty rights of Cyprus, including with military might. This thesis helps fill gaps in the literature regarding political aspects of energy development in the East Mediterranean, as well as the unique role that a small state, such as Cyprus, might play in a geopolitically tense region, that discovers it has notable gas resources. This thesis also contributes to knowledge of current and future Cypriot governments, about the conditions under which the offshore Cypriot energy endeavour takes place, from an international relations perspective, and potentially to help in future energy and political decisions
Carved in ink: Magnus Makculloch and book production in fifteenth-century Scotland
No full textThis thesis examines the life and career of the Scottish ‘scribe’ Magnus Makculloch. In doing so it will disentangle the information that is known about Makculloch’s life, and problematise how we conceptualise the roles of book producers in the late fifteenth century. This thesis offers a framework for understanding the logic texts produced at the University of Leuven in the second half of the fifteenth century. Building on this, it will fit the manuscript Makculloch produced in 1477 at Leuven into this context and use it as the basis through which we can understand his later career in Scotland. This thesis also provides a detailed discussion and analysis of the manuscripts Makculloch would produce when he returned to Scotland, as well as the wider context in which they were created. On this foundation it uses the surviving works from the library of archbishop William Scheves – who commissioned Makculloch’s work – as a basis for broadening the discussion of book production, collection, and consumption in Scotland in the later decades of the fifteenth century. As a result, my thesis contributes in two main areas; the specifics of a pre-modern intellectual, and the courtly, intellectual and artistic construction and creation of knowledge in the context of both Scotland and Northern Europe
Why caring for teachers matters: assessing the impact of clinical therapy on educator wellbeing and student social-emotional growth
Get PDFBACKGROUND:
Teaching has been a stressful profession for decades, but the recent pandemic and pupil mental health crisis have caused more teachers to report poor emotion regulation and feelings of helplessness in the profession. Research indicates that pupils in classrooms in which there is high teacher stress and low teacher coping also report higher levels of stress and low competency in coping. But there is a weaker understanding of how effective adult mental health and wellbeing interventions can positively impact student emotion regulation. Furthermore, most educators do not have the resources to access supports for wellbeing to get and keep themselves mentally healthy and most optimally resourced to build healthy classrooms and support students.
PURPOSE:
This study sought to determine whether access to an individual clinical mental health intervention resource a) supported stronger teacher mental health and wellbeing and b) if that intervention translated to stronger socio-emotional and wellbeing indicators for their students. A project was designed to provide educators with on-site clinical cognitive behavioural psychotherapy from licensed Mental Health Professionals during the school day at no financial cost to the educator.
METHODS:
Quantitative data was collected from 107 control group educators and 14 intervention group educators using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) and the Medstar Georgetown WISE Centre Education Wellbeing Survey which included subscales from the Cognitive Affect for Mindfulness Scale- Revised (CAMS-R) and The Teacher Subjective Wellbeing Questionnaire (TSWQ). A change score was used to account for differences and variability in sampling at baseline. This data was analysed using paired samples t-testing within the intervention group and independent sample t-testing between groups to distinguish differences in the two groups at both before and after intervention cycles. Pupil quantitative data was collected using the Empower K12 ThriveK12 Student Wellbeing Survey from pupils at both control schools and intervention schools. Pupil data was analysed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) testing to compare the difference in groups of pupils given the exposure to the intervention over time. Three groups were assessed: 1) pupils in control schools (n= 178), pupils in intervention schools but without a teacher engaged in therapy (n= 66), 3) pupils in intervention schools with a teacher engaged in therapy (n= 44). Qualitative Data was also collected from 7 adult educator clients post-intervention using semi-structured interview. Qualitative data were analysed thematically using reflexive thematic analysis.
ADULT FINDINGS:
This study found that clinical therapy for educators was associated with positive wellbeing outcomes for adult educators and showed positive correlation with growth in socio-emotional indicators for the students of those educators. In comparing educators’ fall & spring wellbeing scores, results indicated that educators who received the intervention showed decreased symptoms of perceived stress between the pre and post assessments. Additionally, educators who received the intervention reported significantly higher improvement in emotion regulation indicators than their peers who did not. The quantitative data did not show statistically significant differences in perceived self-efficacy growth between educators who received the intervention and those that did not. Qualitative data further indicated that educators perceived the intervention to have a positive effect on their wellbeing and their ability to connect with their students and regulate their classrooms. This finding suggests an efficacious treatment effect of the intervention for educators and their students.
STUDENT FINDINGS:
In comparing students’ fall & spring wellbeing scores in which 0= control school, 1 = intervention school but no exposure to therapy and 2 = students whose teachers received therapy, the 0:1 pairwise comparison, produced a mean difference of .05505 with p=.772 with the 95% confidence interval from -.2442 to .031. The 2:0 pairwise comparison between student’s whose teacher received therapy and students at the control school produced a mean difference of .3 with p=.004 and a 95% Confidence Interval from .0830 to .0525. The 2:1 pairwise comparison between students whose teachers received therapy at the intervention school and students who were in the intervention school but whose teachers did not receive therapy, the mean difference was .35985 with p=.003 with a Confidence Interval range of .1044 to .6153. This data indicates that the intervention group receiving exposure to therapy showed a greater statistically significant improvement than the group in the intervention school who did not have direct exposure to therapy through their teacher.
CONCLUSION:
This study makes a critical contribution to the research on the distal impacts of adult educator clinical wellbeing interventions on student socio-emotional indicators, of which there has been little quantitative data in the research to date. This research indicates that it is effective to eliminate barriers to mental health treatment for educators as a means of increasing both adult educator and student wellbeing within a school setting. Further research is indicated in expanding this study beyond the primary, urban, American public charter school context to assess for applicability and scalability in other K12 academic domains both within the United States and beyond
Change, struggle and complexity within the Chilean penal field
Get PDFThis thesis focuses on the organisational field level of the Chilean criminal justice system, namely, a group of organisations that provide similar goods and services, forming a distinct area of institutional activity (Dimaggio & Powell, 1991). This construct connects organisational and individual levels by delving into the material, formal and subjective aspects of organisational life. In addition, in order to establish and clarify the landscape of this research, the thesis situates the field by disentangling its institutional infrastructure (Greenwood et al., 2011).
The research uses the conceptual tools and mixed methods of institutional theory to accomplish these tasks. In contrast to other applications of institutional theory in criminal justice, this research does not set out to investigate isomorphic processes of penal expansion. Rather its focus is upon the internal complexity of the Chilean penal field itself. This perspective allows ideas such as logics, structural overlapping, and struggle to be developed so as to explain conflicting and contradictory processes within penal organisations – here involving an extended retrospective case study (Flick, 2019) of the Gendarmería de Chile, the Chilean prisons agency. In seeking to capture both individual and organisational responses to change, it undertakes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of prison governance and regulation over the last 100 years. It also documents the Gendarmes’ institutional biographies through extended interviews.
The question that guided the research was about change in Gendarmería, understood in terms of increasing levels of complexity in the penal field. Specifically, it provides findings on how Gendarmes’ social backgrounds have shaped internal practices and moulded organisational struggles. The thesis offers an account of Gendarmería’s organisational struggles shaped by the external pressures and the complexity of its organisational field, the prison system. It thus contributes to understanding the peculiarity and complexity of the relationship between Gendarmería and the penal field in the Chilean context. Finally, the thesis offers insights into the struggles arising across the organisation’s history and considers how this shapes its contemporary challenges, opportunities, and constraints to change. Accordingly, the research contributes to a better understanding of the complexity of the Chilean penal system by encompassing micro, meso and macro levels of analysis
Predicting CO₂ migration in the shallow subsurface: the role of heterogeneity and mass transfer
Get PDFCarbon capture and storage (CCS) is an important technology for the net-zero transition. The success of CCS relies on the security of storage, as unintended release of CO₂ from a storage site can impact water resources, release stored CO₂ to atmosphere and reduce the value of carbon credits associated with storage. Given the potential impacts, robust monitoring techniques are required, supported by a deep understanding of the complexities of CO₂ migration in the shallow subsurface. The objective of this research is to better understand the impacts of subsurface heterogeneity and multicomponent mass transfer on the fate and migration of CO₂ using numerical models.
Simulations of a bench-scale CO₂ injection in saturated homogeneous sand were conducted using a coupled continuum-discrete approach using the Electrothermal Macroscopic Invasion Percolation (ET-MIP) model. ET-MIP was shown to accurately describe the experimental gas velocity, aqueous plume height and gas fingering behaviour, and demonstrated that multicomponent mass transfer impacts the persistence, distribution and development of the gas phase. A sensitivity study was conducted, and demonstrated that gas velocity and distribution were sensitive to the critical gas saturation and grid size.
A binary tree algorithm was implemented for MIP including gas channel fragmentation and mobilization (MIP-FM) to improve performance of ET-MIP. The new algorithm showed a 76% decrease in overall run time when implemented in ET-MIP, and enables the use of ET-MIP in larger domains.
Gas migration in realistic 3D sedimentary structures was simulated to understand the impact of cm-scale heterogeneities. Realistic sedimentary structures with cm-scale bedding and lamina were generated stochastically with varied entry pressure characteristics, and gas migration was simulated using MIP. The ensemble of gas migration results was analyzed and it was established that increased grain size contrast between the bedding and lamina (a function of both grain size and grain sorting of both materials) causes a transition from ganglia-dominated flow to pool-dominated flow and enhanced lateral migration from the source. These results highlight the challenges in gas migration monitoring, as small variations in heterogeneity can significantly alter gas migration pathways.
Lastly, the effects of subscale heterogeneity, groundwater flow and gas composition on gas migration were investigated by simulating CO₂ and noble gas mixtures in heterogeneous domains with varied aqueous flow rates. Results showed that both heterogeneity and aqueous flow rate can influence the vertical migration of CO₂, as a significant portion of the CO₂ will dissolve. Additionally, dissolved noble gas ratios were shown to be sensitive to multicomponent mass transfer during injection and post-injection, as less soluble noble gases such as He will preferentially partition to the gaseous phase.
The results of this thesis highlight the complexity of CO₂ migration in the shallow subsurface. Subscale heterogeneity can impact gas distribution, dissolution, and cause extensive lateral migration. Multicomponent mass transfer can impact the evolution of dissolved gas concentrations including noble gas ratios, and the persistence of gas in the subsurface. Ultimately, this research will help to improve monitoring and verification of CCS, through advancements in numerical modelling techniques and data interpretation. These findings extend beyond CCS, and can be applied to other fields of research including methane or hydrogen leakage and groundwater remediation techniques such as air-sparging or in-situ thermal remediation
Probabilistic inference in Bayesian neural networks
Get PDFDespite widespread applicability and the dominant role in machine learning, neural networks remain highly non-transparent and are often regarded as black boxes
due to the lack of human-understandable interpretations. Conventional deep
models tend to be overconfident in predictions, provide poor uncertainty estimates and are sensitive to adversarial attacks. The Bayesian paradigm takes a
step further and provides a natural framework to address these challenges by considering infinite ensembles of differently weighted neural networks. The Bayesian
neural networks are capable of capturing the uncertainty, improving the accuracy and controlling the model complexity. Unfortunately, for most real-world
problems, the exact probabilistic inference is unavailable, and the asymptotically
faultless Markov chain Monte Carlo becomes daunting when dealing with large
high-dimensional datasets and multimodal posteriors of neural networks. At the
same time, faster and computationally appealing optimization-centric variational
inference lacks the theoretical justification of the sampling-based methods and is
known to underestimate the uncertainty of the true posterior distribution. This
thesis systematically studies different aspects of variational inference, namely,
theoretical foundations, challenges and means of dealing with those. Further, the
practical questions arising when implementing and comparing Bayesian neural
networks are addressed, and the dependency of the predictive performance on
the architectural choices and the alignment between the model and the inference algorithm are analysed. Finally, this thesis contributes to the development
of variational inference techniques and presents a novel kind of Bayesian neural
network called a variational bow tie neural network in which we employ sparsity-promoting priors and consider the improved version of the classical coordinate
ascent variational inference algorithm
Smart wearable TENS device for overactive bladder management
No full textOveractive bladder (OAB) syndrome is a chronic condition of global prevalence that greatly
affects patient quality of life. While percutaneous tibial nerve stimulation (PTNS) is now a well-established treatment, its invasiveness limits its usability. Recent advances in transcutaneous
tibial nerve stimulation (TTNS) treatments have shown great promise, but most commercially
available neuro-stimulator are relatively large, reliant on adhesive gel electrodes and require
professional help. This makes them particularly difficult to use by older home-bound patients
with sensitive/fragile skin, who are often the target demographic. These limitations reduce
patient adherence and consistency in treatment. To address these issues, this thesis details the
development of a compact, wearable device (TENSmini, weighing 31 g), specifically designed
to be connected to a washable sock featuring conductive textile electrodes. This unobtrusive
device allows users to control stimulation parameters wirelessly via mobile devices, enabling
tailored TTNS treatments. Necessary features, including consistent electrode positioning,
galvanic isolation and automated disconnection detection, were incorporated to ensure enhanced
user protection. In two pilot studies involving 57 healthy participants, the TENSmini device
effectively stimulated the tibial nerve (measured via electromyographic (EMG) recording) and
demonstrated short-term inhibitory effects on bladder control, with performance comparable to
a clinical-grade stimulator. While further clinical studies are needed to evaluate its long-term
therapeutic effectiveness, the TENSmini offers patients enhanced safety, usability, and the
potential for considerable improvements in adherence to home-based OAB management
The role of ER-phagy and proteostatic defects in pancreatic cancer
No full textDespite being the most frequently mutated oncogene in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), Kras mutation in pancreatic acinar cells in mouse models does not lead to immediate morphological changes. Indeed, the molecular events driven by Kras that precede and facilitate the earliest transformation towards malignancy, such as acinar-ductal metaplasia (ADM) and PanIN formation, are unclear.
The precursors of PDAC, pancreatic acinar cells, are highly-specialised secretory cells and thus, vulnerable to changes in ER homeostasis. In fact, it has been shown that the recently characterised ER-phagy cargo receptor CCPG1, plays a role in maintaining ER proteostasis in these cells. However, it is unclear whether this is due to its role in ER-phagy, a selective form of degradation of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) that involves autophagy-mediated delivery of ER fragments – which may contain pathologic aggregates of proteins – to the lysosomes. Here, initial experiments in PDAC cells reveal no significant role for ER-phagy in PDAC cell physiology. I thus developed an in vivo model to study CCPG1 function in acinar cell physiology – as these primary cells cannot be cultured in vitro – and to interrogate its potential contribution to tumourigenesis. Preliminary data using a novel ER-phagy reporter (ss-SRAI-KDEL) showed that indeed, deletion of Ccpg1 led to reduction in ER-phagy flux in pancreatic acinar cells. Not only that, but in a Kras mutant mouse model of PDAC initiation (KC model), heterogeneous degrees of suppression of ER-phagy across the acinar cell compartment of the KC mouse pancreas were observed, and the areas of greatest downregulation were tightly spatially correlated with ADM formation.
Therefore, to interrogate whether such loss of ER-phagy would drive ADM and PanINs, a genetically engineered mouse model with a conditional deletion of the key ER-phagy gene, Ccpg1, was generated. This led to homogenous ER proteostatic defects across the acinar cell compartment and widespread acceleration of inflammation and ADM in the KC model. Proteomic analysis of purified acini revealed a small group of highly-aggregation prone ER luminal proteins that accumulated and aggregated upon ER-phagy loss. Crucially, Kras mutation alone is sufficient to drive these protein aggregates in acinar cells, given sufficient time, and this phenotype is tightly spatially associated with the formerly observed suppression of ER-phagy and incipient ADM. It is then conceivable to assume that Kras-driven proteostatic defects are molecular events in acinar cells that facilitate their transdifferentiation to ADM.
Thus, to understand how impaired proteostasis predisposes acinar cells towards malignant transformation, initial transcriptional analyses were performed in pancreata of CCPG1-deficient mice. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) showed that gene sets associated with pancreatic injury were enriched in these mice, suggesting ER-phagy deficiency causes an injury-like phenotype in acinar cells. Finally, spatial transcriptomics was used in KC murine pancreata to identify the transcriptional changes in the subpopulation of acinar cells presenting sporadic proteostatic defects. In these cells, the injury-specific genes were also enriched, confirming that Kras mutation alone drives the same molecular changes as ER-phagy failure.
Taken together, the results presented in this thesis suggest that dysregulation of ER proteostasis and aggregation of proteins predispose acinar cells to undergo ADM by inducing a phenotype similar to inflammation and injury and thus, are mechanistic hallmarks of early steps in Kras-driven tumourigenesis
CFD-DEM simulation of slurry particle infiltration in granular soils
Get PDFOver recent decades, the slurry pressure balance (SPB) method has gained popularity due to its safety, efficiency, and environmental advantages, especially in undersea and river-crossing tunnels with high groundwater pressures. By employing a pressurised slurry, commonly a bentonite suspension, the stability of the excavation face is maintained. When the pressurised slurry infiltrates into the surrounding strata, its fine particles clog the soil pores and form a low-permeability filter cake at the excavation surface. The filter cake continuously transfers slurry pressure to balance soil and groundwater pressures, dynamically regenerating as tunnelling progresses and cutters disrupt it.
A variety of investigations have aimed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of filter cake formation and infiltration. In particular, laboratory column tests have been widely used to characterise infiltration behaviour and filter cake properties. More recently, the coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics–Discrete Element Method (CFD–DEM) approach has proved effective in capturing the interactions between slurry particles and soil at the particle scale.
Despite these advances, numerical studies commonly simplify bentonite particles as spheres, overlooking their actual plate-like shape and potentially misrepresenting particle packing and permeability. Additionally, simplified infiltration models often neglect the dynamic, repeated infiltration and continuous filter cake reformation during tunnelling.
To address these gaps, this study models bentonite particles as oblate spheroids with varying aspect ratios and incorporates a simplified pitching torque model into the CFD–DEM framework to capture more realistic motion. Results show that higher aspect ratios improve infiltration channel sealing, enhancing slurry pressure transfer and excavation face stability.
Building on these developments, a more realistic SPB tunnelling model was developed to simulate infiltration under operational conditions. Coupled CFD–DEM simulations using this model and a standard column test enabled direct comparison. While both produced similar filter cakes, the SPB model showed greater infiltration distances, lower normalised permeability near the face, and faster fluid pressure dissipation—leading to quicker infiltration. These results highlight the dynamic model’s closer alignment with real tunnelling conditions, in contrast to the more conservative column test.
A new numerical framework was developed to simulate dynamic filter cake re-formation during tunnelling, incorporating multiple cycles of slurry re-infiltration and cutter head advancement. Compared to static models, the dynamic approach replicated field-observed pressure fluctuations. It also showed reduced infiltration rates, suggesting that static models may overestimate infiltration in such conditions.
Collectively, this study advances understanding of particle-scale slurry infiltration and dynamic filter cake evolution in SPB tunnelling. By incorporating realistic particle shapes, realistic tunnelling conditions, and repeated infiltration, it enhances the predictive accuracy and reliability of slurry shield tunnelling simulations
Strengthening community driven anticipatory action and early warning systems in Borana Zone, Ethiopia
Get PDFRecommendations from a research for action project commissioned by the Jameel Observatory. The full report is available at https://hdl.handle.net/1842/4363
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