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Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
The relationship between health literacy and colorectal cancer early diagnosis in the elderly
No full textObjective(s): The level of health literacy is not the same in all people, and the level of health literacy is lower in the group of the elderly, immigrants and people with low economic status. Considering the importance of health literacy and obtaining useful information and performing screening behaviors in the elderly, the present study aimed to assess the relationship between health literacy and performing colorectal cancer early diagnosis in the elderly of Shahrekord, Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study examined the level of health literacy and performing cancer-screening behaviors in the 351elderly of Shahrekord whose information was fully recorded in electronic case records and selected randomly. After collecting information using standard health literacy questionnaire and checklist about colorectal cancer early diagnosis, the data was analyzed using SPSS version 25 software. Results: The mean age of the elderly participants in the study was 67.08 ± 5.75 years. The mean health literacy score of the elderly was 60.65±12. About 52 of elderly had performed colorectal cancer screening. The mean score of health literacy was higher in men (p<0.001). Married people, self-employed, university educated, the elderly with a history of illness in the family, had higher health literacy (p<0.001). There was a significant relationship between the health literacy score and colorectal cancer early diagnosis (p<0.001). Conclusion: Improving health literacy may be an effective strategy in improving and promoting colorectal cancer early diagnosis in the elderly. Therefore, developing comprehensive programs, creating simple and understandable media and educational materials, as well as effective educational interventions for people with insufficient health literacy can be an effective step to improve health literacy among this population
Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050
No full textBackground: Today, food insecurity is recognized as an important public health problem that can have detrimental effects on families. Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the determinants and consequences of food insecurity in families having children under the age of 2 years. Method: In this cross-sectional study, 307 mothers and their children under the age of 2 years were selected by stratified random sampling. Demographic and socioeconomic data were collected by completing questionnaires through face-to-face interview. Household food insecurity (HFI) status was determined using the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) household food security questionnaire. Results: Based on the results, 67.4% of families were high food secure. Low and very low food security was 25.7% and 6.9%, respectively. House size (Beta = −0.019, 95% CI: −0.029, −0.009), father's job (Beta = −4.758, 95% CI:−6.777, −2.738), father education (Beta = −0.370, 95% CI: −0.717, −0.023), and economic status (Beta = −0.628, 95% CI: −0.809, −0.448) were significantly related to the USDA total food insecurity score (p < 0.05). Regression analysis showed that children birth weight, father’s body mass index (BMI), and mother's waist circumference had a significant positive correlation with weight for age (Z-score) of children. Children’s birth weight, father’s BMI, and HFI status had significant and positive correlation with weight for length (Z-score). Moreover, the significant association between children’s birth height, mother’s BMI, and mother's waist circumference with length for age (Z-score) were observed (p < 0.05). Conclusion: We found the father's job was the most effective factor in food insecurity and economic status of the family was in the second place. Also, HFI had a relationship with weight status of children under the age of 2 years
Introducing a novel TRAPPC10 gene variant as a potential cause of developmental delay and intellectual disability in an Iranian family
No full textBackground: TRAPP complexes are crucial components for intracellular transport and cellular organization. Their role in vesicle trafficking, particularly through their involvement in the secretory pathway, make them more important in neurodevelopmental mechanisms. This study aims to identify a novel genetic variant, associated with developmental delay and intellectual disability by analyzing a consanguineous Iranian family. Materials and methods: Here, we performed whole-exome sequencing on an Iranian family, originating from a small population. The patient presented with severe developmental delay, microcephaly, and behavioral abnormalities. Through our analysis, we discovered a new biallelic variant on a previously introduced gene: TRAPPC10 (NM_003274.5): c.3222 C > A; p.(Cys1074Ter) that is a potential cause for these specific clinical characteristics. Results: Previous functional analysis suggest that the mutation causes premature termination of protein translation, likely leading to nonsense-mediated decay because of biallelic loss of functional TRAPPC10 protein which leads to severe developmental delay, microcephaly, and behavioral abnormalities such as aggression and autistic traits. Conclusion: The aim of this research is to discover a novel variant in the TRAPPC10 gene that is responsible for a particular neurodevelopmental condition, dominantly characterized by developmental delay, intellectual disability, and microcephaly. These findings advance the comprehension of TRAPP-related diseases and emphasize the need for further exploration into the impact of TRAPPC10 on the development of the nervous system
Evaluation of the effect of sustained‐release progesterone injection on the expression of interferon‐related genes in repeat‐breeder dairy cows
No full textBackground: Repeat-breeder cows repeatedly fail to conceive after at least three attempts and return to oestrus at apparently normal intervals. Repeat-breeder cows cause economic losses in dairy farms in different ways. Objective: In the present study, we investigated the effect of sustained-release progesterone injection in two different doses on the expression of interferon-related genes in repeat-breeder dairy cows. Methods: A total of 96 repeat-breeder primiparous and multiparous cows were assigned among three groups: control group, inseminated and do not receive progesterone treatment; P400 and P600 groups, inseminated and received a single-intramuscular injection of 400 and 600 mg slow-release progesterone 5 days after insemination, respectively. Blood sampling was carried out on Day 20 after AI for progesterone measurement and evaluation of gene expression for ISG15, MX1 and MX2 genes. Results: One injection of sustained-release progesterone increased the expression of ISG15, MX1 and MX2 genes with differences between two different progesterone concentrations. For all three genes, the level of gene expression was higher in progesterone-supplemented group than in control group, when P400 and P600 groups considered together. The level of MX2 gene expression was significantly higher in pregnant cows than non-pregnant cows. There was a significant positive correlation between expression level of all three genes and blood progesterone concentration. The expression level of ISG15 gene showed a significant positive correlation with MX1 and MX2 gene expression. Conclusion: The use of this sustained-release progesterone is simple and can be used in repeat-breeder cows to improve fertility
N-(4-(4-Chlorophenyl)Thiazol-2-yl)-2-(2-Phenylacetamido) Acetamide Derivatives as Potential Anticancer Agents: Synthesis and Cytotoxicity Evaluation
No full textAccording to the rising statistics of cancer cases, the discovery of novel anticancer drugs is a critical issue in current medical research. Besides, drug resistance and the incidence of severe adverse effects are the logical reasons for the discovery of new antineoplastic agents. According to the positive background that has been observed for 1,3-thiazole derivatives as potential anticancer drugs, we decided to synthesize a new series of 1,3-thiazole-based cytotoxic agents. MTT assay, activation of caspase 3, capability for reduction of the Mitochondrial Membrane Potential (MMP), and production potency of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) were investigated. Some of the tested compounds demonstrated potent cytotoxic activity and also caspase 3 activation, MMP reduction, and ROS generation. Three cancerous cell lines namely Hela (cervical cancer), A549 (lung carcinoma), and U87 (glioblastoma) were applied to perform the MTT assay. Diverse moieties with different electronic features were substituted on the phenyl ring to reveal the structure-activity relationships of the target compounds 8a-8o. Hela (cervical cancer), A549 (lung carcinoma), and U87 (glioblastoma) were utilized as cancerous cells to explore the cytotoxicity via MTT assay. Hela and U87 cells were more sensitive to the tested compounds and A549 was more resistant to the tested derivatives. Compound 8a with ortho chlorine moiety on the phenyl ring was the most active derivative against Hela cells (IC50 = 1.3±0.14 µM). All evaluated derivatives rendered lower activity against A549 than doxorubicin as a standard anticancer drug. Only some of the evaluated compoundsshowed more cytotoxicity against U87 than doxorubicin. Furthermore, caspase 3 activation, mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), and reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation were also investigated. Fortunately, some of the tested compounds were also active in these tests. In conclusion, the current 1,3-thiazole derivatives could be suggested as potential anticancer lead compounds
Investigation of pregnancy tendency, reproductive characteristics, and disability in women with multiple sclerosis: A secondary data analysis of the national registry in Iran
No full textBackground: Multiple sclerosis (MS) predominantly affects women of childbearing age, significantly impacting their quality of life (QOL). The diagnosis of MS can influence pregnancy intention, and the level of disability associated with MS may change before and after pregnancy. This study aims to analyze the reproductive characteristics of Iranian female patients with MS (PwMS) and their association with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and pregnancy tendency, providing valuable insights into disease progression and the development of tailored treatments. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the nationwide MS registry of Iran (NMSRI) from 2018 to 2021. Patients without a documented history of pregnancy, MS type, or EDSS score were excluded from the study. Various statistical methods, including nonparametric tests, the generalized estimating equation (GEE) model, and multiple logistic regression, were employed to analyze the data. Results: The study included 1120 PwMS with a median diagnostic age of 31 and a disease duration of 6 years. The majority had relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and the mean EDSS score at bassline was 1.5 ± 1.4. A history of pregnancy or abortion was associated with higher EDSS scores. Multiparity before MS diagnosis was linked to EDSS score ≥ 5, while this EDSS range was associated with decreased parity after MS diagnosis (all P-values < 0.05). Conclusion: Pregnancy and parity can affect the disability in female PwMS irrespective of clinical symptoms, diagnosis age, and MS type. Moreover, the chance of parity may be affected by a higher disability score, which should be considered in the clinical setting
Mathematical modeling of interactions between colon cancer and immune system with a deep learning algorithm
No full textColon cancer is a complex disease with genetically unstable cell lines. In order to better understand the complexity of colon cancer cells and their metastatic mechanisms, we develop a mathematical model in this study. The model is based on a system of fractional-order differential equations and Fractional-Cancer-Informed Neural Networks (FCINN). The model captures a dynamic network of interactions between dendritic cells (DCs), cytotoxic T-cells (CD8+), helper T-cells (CD4+), and colon cancer cells through fractional differential equations. By varying the fractional order between 0 and 1, we can classify patients into different groups based on their immune patterns. The goal of this paper is to identify different immune patterns and cancer cell behaviors, as well as the parameters that play an important role in metastasis, control, or elimination of cancer cells in the model. However, several parameters in the model are difficult to estimate in a patient-specific manner. To address this challenge, we use FCINN as an effective deep-learning tool for parameter estimation and numerical simulation of the model. Our findings suggest that the most effective factors in controlling the progression and preventing metastasis of colon cancer are the initial number of cancer cells, the inhibiting rates of tumor cells by DCs, the source of DCs, and the activation of helper T-cells by DCs. These findings suggest that DCs can be used as an immunotherapy tool for the control and treatment of colon cance
Associations between Dietary Patterns during Pregnancy and Neurodevelopment in Children
No full textBackground and Objectives: Neurodevelopmental disorders are complex and multifactorial disorders with difficult diagnosis and treatment. Maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy may play important roles in neurodevelopment. The aim of this study was to investigate effects of maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy on neurodevelopment of children. Materials & Methods: This study was carried out as a sub-study of the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN) Birth Cohort. Overall, 214 mother-child pairs participated in the present study. Dietary patterns were assessed by 90-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Neurodevelopment outcomes were assessed by child behavior check list (CBCL) and ages and stages questionnaires (ASQ). Results: In syndromic scale of CBCL, western diets at first trimester increased the risk of emotional disorders (p = 0.045). At third trimester, significant negative relationships were seen between the healthy diets and sleep disorders (p = 0.047), fatty diets and sleep and internalizing disorders (p = 0.017 and 0.012, respectively), western diets and sleep and total problems (p = 0.026 and 0.046, respectively). In scales based on diagnostic and statistical manual (DSM), positive relationships were reported between the unhealthy diets and anxiety disorders (p = 0.049). Conclusion: Results indicated that maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy might affect the neurodevelopmental outcomes of children. Further studies to identify associations between dietary patterns and neurodevelopment are needed
The comparison of STOP-BANG and no-apnea questionnaires in screening obstructive sleep apnea among commercial drivers
No full textObjective: No-apnea questionnaire (NAQ) and STOP-BANG questionnaire (SBQ) are widely used for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) screening. This investigation aimed to compare the SBQ with the NAQ as an OSA screening tool among commercial drivers. Methods: We included eligible commercial drivers who came to the Occupational Health clinic between March 2018 and March 2019. Participants filled out the SBQ, NAQ, and ESS questionnaires. The SBQ scores eight factors to assess OSA risk, with a score of ≥3 indicating high risk. The NAQ scores age and neck circumference for OSA risk, with ≥3 indicating significant risk. The ESS measures daytime sleepiness, with a score of ≥10 indicating excessive sleepiness as the most common symptom of OSA. The patients’ scores were evaluated based on the set criteria. A McNemar test was used to determine the differences between SBQ and NAQ. The number of at-risk patients was measured for each screening test, and the correlation between the two screening methods was evaluated by measuring Cohen’s kappa coefficient. Results: A total number of 581 commercial drivers, with a mean age of 44.39 ± 9.16 years, participated. The mean SBQ score was 1.82 ± 0.78, with 17.7% of participants being at high risk of OSA. The mean NAQ score was 3.48 ± 1.94, with 65.7% of participants being at high risk of OSA. About 48.6% of commercial drivers were at high risk, according to the NAQ but not SBQ. In contrast, 0.5% of participants were at high risk, according to SBQ, but not NAQ. Regarding ESS scores, among those identified as high risk for OSA by the SBQ, 13.6% exhibited an ESS score greater than 10. Similarly, within the high-risk group identified by the NAQ, this proportion was 14.1%. Cohen’s kappa coefficient was 0.17, which is considerably low. A McNemar test also indicated that the SBQ and the NAQ didn’t have equivalent diagnostic outcomes (P-value < 0.001). Conclusions: The NAQ identified more professional drivers at risk for OSA compared to the SBQ, suggesting that objective-based questionnaires may be more effective for screening in safety-sensitive jobs like commercial driving. However, further validation with polysomnography and cost-benefit considerations are needed to determine the most efficient and sustainable screening approach