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Quantitative Risk Analysis for Elections
Get PDFThis paper examines risk analysis and risk management in the field of election security. The purpose of this paper is not to enumerate risks to election security or explain how they might be mitigated, but rather to understand and improve how we measure and communicate those risks.
First, I contextualize election security risks by establishing what it means for an election to be secure and I give an overview of the types of events that might threaten election security. Then, I explore different methods that we can use to model electoral risks. Existing resources for managing electoral risks use qualitative methods, but qualitative methods have many inherent problems that quantitative methods do not. To improve electoral risk management, I suggest that election administrators use the Quantitative Electoral Risk Management Tool.
The Quantitative Electoral Risk Management Tool, which I developed, uses Monte Carlo simulations to quantitatively analyze electoral risks using the same expert opinions on which existing qualitative models are based. It produces a loss exceedance curve that tells election administrators the chance their election is insecure based on the margin of victory in the election. It also supports risk management decision making by listing sets of controls that could be implemented to mitigate the enumerated risks and ranking them according to their cost effectiveness.
I surveyed six election security experts to demonstrate how election administrators could use the tool to more effectively manage risks. After participating in a brief calibration training exercise, the experts were asked to enumerate the risks to an election with which they were familiar and estimate some details about each risk. I ran the data collected in my survey through the tool to generate example loss exceedance curves and risk rankings. At the end of this paper, I make some observations about the results of my survey, discuss the advantages and limitations of my methodology and the tool, and consider how my work can be improved in the future
Threat perceptions, defensive behaviors, and the perceived suicide prevention value of specific firearm storage practices
Get PDFIntroduction: Secure firearm storage has been proposed as a suicide prevention method within the military; however, secure storage practices are uncommon. Service members may perceive limited value in secure storage as a suicide prevention tool and threat-related factors may influence such perceptions. Method: A nationally representative sample of firearm-owning military service members (n = 719) was recruited between December 3, 2021 and January 4, 2022 to complete a self-report survey by Ipsos using their KnowledgePanel calibration approach to optimize representativeness. Results: Threat sensitivity was associated with less perceived suicide prevention value across all within-home storage practices as well as out-of-home storage. Defensive firearm ownership was associated with less perceived out-of-home storage value. Contrary to expectations, PTSD symptoms were associated with greater perceived suicide prevention value across all storage practices and intolerance of uncertainty was associated with greater perceived out-of-home storage value. Discussion: Perceptions of, sensitivity to, and reactions to threat represent a complicated confluence of factors that may influence firearm views and behaviors in disparate ways. Viewing the world as dangerous and other people as a threat may limit perceived suicide prevention value for secure storage and increase the drive for firearm access
The Suicide Status Form-4 (SSF-IV) as a potentially therapeutic suicide risk assessment tool
No full textBackground: Empirically supported suicide risk assessment and conceptualization is a central aim of the Zero Suicide model. The Suicide Status Form (SSF) is the essential document and scaffolding of the Collaborative Assessment and Management of Suicidality—Brief Intervention (CAMS-BI) and is hypothesized as an example of a psychological assessment as therapeutic intervention (PATI). However, this hypothesis has never been directly tested. Methods: N = 57 patients deemed at risk for outpatient suicidal behavior and treated as part of an inpatient psychiatric consultation and liaison service were recruited to participate in CAMS-BI at a Level 1 trauma center in the southeastern United States. During the CAMS-BI process, patients were asked to rate their subjective units of distress (SUDS) at five time points throughout the intervention (k = 285). Results: The omnibus random intercept multilevel model revealed a significant difference in pre- to post-session ratings of SUDS across patients. Post hoc pairwise comparisons revealed no significant differences between SSF sections (e.g., Section A, Section B, and Section C) and relative reductions in SUDS; however, there was an observable trend toward a favorable effect of Section A of the SSF. Conclusions: The SSF may represent an example of PATI pending replication and extension of the current results
The Boltzmann-Enskog Equation with Brownian Forcing
Get PDFInteracting particle systems (IPS) are used to rigorously derive partial differential equations modeling macroscopic behavior given by systems of stochastic differential equa- tions in physics, biology, and other sciences. These systems model the time evolution of n interacting particles with desired dynamics. In the n-system studied here, only two parti- cles may interact at a time (binary collisions). The particles are exchangeable; that is, the ordering of the particles does not play a role, and the interaction between the ith particle and the jth particle models an elastic collision. In this thesis, we use the method of inter- acting particle systems to find weak solutions to the weak formulation of the Boltzmann- Enskog equation perturbed by a Brownian motion. Conservation of energy is lost due to the addition of a Brownian motion. We solve the martingale problem corresponding to this n-system and prove a propagation of chaos result. The sequence of empirical measures of this n-system weakly converges to the law of a weak solution of a stochastic differential equation of the McKean-Vlasov type driven by a Poisson random measure
A Comprehensive Guide to a Trumpet Embouchure Change
Get PDFAbstract
The purpose of this project is to expand the literature related to the subject of trumpet embouchure change and provide a comprehensive resource that will assist both student and teacher in navigating a trumpet embouchure change. This resource will not only help them determine whether to go through with the process but will present them with multiple options regarding embouchure change starting methods. It can be used for a variety of ages but primarily intended for use with students high school age or older.
In current method books, one trumpet embouchure is usually presented and is often a “one-size-fits-all” situation. This is problematic, as the literature otherwise determines that all players are different, and one embouchure type will not work for all facial structures. Additionally, while some books mention embouchure changes, there is no book specifically dedicated to the process of changing a trumpet embouchure. Furthermore, traditional method books often become too difficult, too quickly for someone undergoing this process. In the current literature students are expected to compile their own exercises from various sources, leaving them and their teachers to find proper methods and exercises.
This paper will consist of four parts: the literature review, the pedagogical study and suggestions, an explanation of the method book materials, and the method book manuscript itself. Pedagogical opinions from experts of embouchure and embouchure change were compiled to bring awareness of multiple viewpoints, as well as inform this author’s own pedagogical suggestions. This section (chapter three) illuminates that there are benefits and drawbacks to every embouchure type, and that there is not one solution that works for every player. The pedagogical suggestions draw from the study of these materials as well as the author’s own experience to recommend various paths for the student regarding embouchure change. The method book portion of this project uses this knowledge to compile a resource that will successfully navigate a student through the initial stages of a trumpet embouchure change using a variety of starting methods
Memorializing a Lethal Saint: The Sanctification of Violence in the Life of Barsauma
No full textSamuel\u27s Life of Barsauma, a little-studied, late fifth-century Syriac text, commemorates the ascetic career of a nasty saint. One of the most noticeable features of this monastic hagiography is the high degree and diversity of violence: Barsauma is frequently portrayed as the victim of violence by his adversaries and the perpetrator of violence against his adversaries. Yet, the Life of Barsauma stands out from other late ancient monastic hagiographies because of its enthusiastic depiction of the saint\u27s lethality. According to Samuel, Barsauma uses his curse to kill an array of individuals, and the mere presence of him and his disciples leads to the mass deaths of Jews gathered in Jerusalem. For most late ancient hagiographers, a saint\u27s performance of violence was something to be downplayed or specifically rationalized, and rarely if ever would a saint\u27s performance of holy violence lead to the death of one person, let alone many people. The Life of Barsauma\u27s deviation from contemporary hagiographical convention compels this article\u27s investigation into the meaning that Samuel hoped to communicate through his thorough depiction of a lethally violent saint. I argue that Samuel\u27s Life constitutes the literary amplification of a memory about the historical Barsauma, and an exhortation for the monks of Barsauma\u27s monastery to imitate him with similarly violent actions. In the end, Samuel\u27s defies the conventions of monastic hagiography in order to authorize readers to perform their own acts of violence as they construct and police the monastic community\u27s sectarian boundaries
Fixing the Past: The Effects of Human Rights Trials on Political Attitudes in Argentina
No full textDoes prosecuting perpetrators of repression under a dictatorship promote public support for human rights and the courts? We argue that convicting perpetrators in human rights trials reduces public acceptance of these violations. However, while convictions signal judicial efforts to end impunity, they may also call attention to the politicized process by which transitional justice begins. We estimate the effects of human rights trial verdicts on attitudes in Argentina, a country ruled by a military dictatorship from 1976-1983 that, twenty-five years later, initiated sweeping human rights trials for past repression. Using observational day-level opinion data from a survey fielded around the guilty verdict for one of the dictatorship\u27s top-ranking generals, we find the trial verdict increased the public\u27s rejection of torture and political killings. Yet belief in judicial fairness declined. These results suggest that trials solidify public commitments to human rights, but confidence in the judiciary is not a necessary condition for this effect
If These Walls Could Talk, What Would They Say about Reproductive Justice Today?
No full textThis article critically examines the lives of the three women in the television film If These Walls Could Talk (Cher & Savoca, 1996). The three protagonists, all White American women, live in the same house and are all faced with the decision of whether to terminate their unplanned, unwanted pregnancies in 1952, 1974, and 1996. Notably, three Black women were included as minor characters in the film. These foundational questions guide this film analysis: (1) What were the societal norms for US women who considered either abortion or giving birth in 1952, 1974, and 1996? (2) What barriers did women face who considered either abortion or giving birth in 1952, 1974, and 1996? and (3) In what ways does this film highlight or fail to highlight the realities that Black women faced in 1952, 1974, and 1996? This analysis not only examines the social norms and barriers experienced by these fictional White and Black women but also the potential consequences women will face today because of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade (1973) on June 24, 2022
When state rescuing systems were paralyzed: Post-hurricane depression, hope, and spirituality of Black and White student volunteers
No full textObjectives: Major disasters impose existential challenges and researchers have called for investigation of protectors (e.g., hope, spirituality) and further examination of mental health among Black and White student volunteers. This longitudinal study validated spirituality measures and tested a hypothetical model of depression among volunteers after deadly hurricanes. Participants: Two-wave, survey data were collected via a purposive sample at three- and six-months post-disaster (N = 201; Age = 30.38, female = 91%, Black students = 38.8%). Methods: Bayesian structural equation modeling (Bayesian-SEM) was employed to address both the small Wave-2 sample and the dichotomized depression measure. Results: High proportions of respondents met symptom bars approaching clinical depression in both waves. As expected, hope had a suppressing effect on Waves 1-&-2 depression and mediated the opposite roles of peritraumatic emotions on both. Prayer coping mediated positive paths from Black participants. Conclusion: Bayesian-SEM results reinforced the lasting protection of hope against post-disaster depression and indicated greater reliance on spirituality to cope among Black student volunteers