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Bernard's transit from the gulf of Cádiz to the iberian peninsula on october 22, 2023
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Bernard was a deep extratropical cyclone that on October 22 affected the Iberian Peninsula, especially the southwest, where intense rainfall, and especially wind gusts, much higher than 100 km/h, caused countless incidents. Bernard was generated in the western North Atlantic and moved towards the east of the ocean with a behavior typical of the so-called diabatic Rossby waves. Western of the Azores Islands, the storm intensified and became thermally unstable, deepening its center at a rate of about 10 hPa/12 hours when it interacted with a high level shortwave trough. As a result, Bernard acquired characteristics of a tropical cyclone: a warm core, and strong low-level surface winds. As the storm moved westward over the Gulf of Cádiz, it intensified again due to the increase in convection in its center associated with the increase in vertical wind shear. Shortly before entering the Iberian Peninsula, the aggregation of cumulonimbus formed a Mesoscalar Convective System (MCS)
Climate varibility, teleconections and climate change of Sierra de Guadarrama
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.This analysis examines the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and climate variability at a local level using a set of long time series. The data is derived from previously validated in-situ observations and reconstructed from reanalysis. The study demonstrates that the region has experienced significant warming since the early 20th century, which has impacted the main meteorological variables and the duration of the snowpack. The increase in the fraction of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow has been observed due to changes in the seasonal cycle. This knowledge of the potential redistribution of seasonal runoff, changes in rain intensities and temperatures, is expected to be useful for defining adaptation strategies to new scenarios
Low-wind climatology over Europe based on ERA5 (1979-2018) reanalysis
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Low-wind characterization from climatic and meteorological perspectives is a challenging research area, as there is no objective definition for these atmospheric conditions, locally and over large regions. A definition based on light-breeze Beaufort wind scale threshold (3.3 m/s) with hourly data obtained from 0.25º ERA5 reanalysis for the 1979-2018 period is used to analyze their main climatic features over the whole European region, for both land and oceanic regions, once a validation with the limited amount of observational data is first made. Around 3500 low-wind hours/year are obtained, averaged over the 40-year period. Spatial patterns related to orography, oceanic areas and north-to-south gradients can be seen. Seasonal low-wind variability ranges around 20-25%, with important interannual variability. Consecutive low-wind hourly spells episodes last 5-10 days over land areas, with a mean spell length of around 20 hours, and more than 200 episodes per year
Statistical downscaling of ECMWF seasonal forecast system (SEAS5) within the framework of climate services
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Quality seasonal forecasts properly downscaled to the resolution needed by users is a key issue for planning of
water resources or agriculture sectors. Together with a better understanding of the mechanisms driving climate
variability at this timescale, a downscaling post-process has been developed by AEMET (Petisco, 2008a; Petisco
2008b; Amblar, 2017) for improving the usage of ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5). The algorithm
makes successive use of an analogue technique -based on a Euclidean distance- and regression to downscale
maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. One important ingredient of this algorithm is the usage of
a new observational gridded dataset with 5 km of horizontal resolution covering the peninsular Spain and the
Balearic Islands (Peral et al., 2017). Results show small error metric values, allowing to conclude that at least
over the Iberian Peninsula –where the high resolution observational grid is available- the here described
downscaling algorithm performs satisfactory
Participation of AEMET in the Destination-Earth initiative of the European Commission and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Destination Earth (DestinE) is an ambitious European Union initiative to create a digital twin – an interactive
computer simulation – of our planet. DestinE will be used to better understand the effects of climate change and
environmental disasters and enable policymakers to respond more effectively to these issues. Here we will address
the role of AEMET in this project in relation to the development of the DestiniE On Demand Extremes prototype
and tis meteorological verification
Evaluation of Noah-MP Land Surface odel for selecting parameterization schemes over the Iberian Peninsula
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Noah-MP Land Surface Model integrated into the WRF v3.9.1
framework for high-resolution climate modeling across the Iberian Peninsula (IP), focusing on its parameter
sensitivity for accurately depicting the region's varied climate conditions. The study uses the ERA5 reanalysis data
to drive WRF simulations at two resolutions: a broader 50 km domain aligning with the Euro-CORDEX area and
a more detailed 10 km domain concentrated on the IP. The methodology incorporates a preliminary spin-up phase
consisting of 30-year simulations to ensure soil variable stability, followed by a series of 52 one-year experiments
over 26 different parameter settings aimed to improve the model's precision for both wet and dry years. Critical
parameters, including vegetation dynamics and soil heat transfer processes, are adjusted to determine their
optimal configurations. This approach seeks to improve the model's capability in capturing the climate dynamics
and land-atmosphere interactions processes in the IP
The southern swell in the Canary Islands
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.The phenomenon of the southern swell in the Canary Islands has its origin in austral latitudes, essentially
vinculated with lows in the Southern Hemisphere. Waves arrive to the coasts of the Canary Islands with a
combination of height and period that can transmit a lot of energy. Although in an absolute scale such energies
do not reach the values of the deep lows in Northern Atlantic, the phenomenon is unexpected and it has a very
unusual direction, so it creates personal and material damages in the Canary Islands. This work tries to make a
description of the southern swell in the Canary Islands and show the behaviour of models, using data from wave
models (ECWAM and AEWAM) along with data from a buoy of Puertos del Estado located at the south of the
island of Tenerife
Evaluation of GPM DPR capabilities for identifying hailstorms
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Southern France is one of the regions most severely affected by hailstorms and is among the most thoroughly
researched areas, having an extensive operational hailpads network. Satellite sensors are increasingly significant
in hailstorm monitoring. The international Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission features a Core
Observatory (CO) that is equipped with the first Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) in space. The aim of
this study was to investigate the hailstorms that occurred in France between 2014 and 2021, as observed by the
DPR and recorded by the ANELFA. Eight hailstorms were identified, in which the DPR swath coincided with
ground observations. Various variables provided by the DPR were examined, and five detection algorithms were
assessed. The research confirmed the usefulness of hailpad networks in accurately verifying hailfall. Additionally,
it was verified that algorithms using Ku band data are more effective in detecting a greater number of pixels
containing hail. This research will serve as a foundation for developing prediction algorithms using GPM data
Contrasting precipitation trends in Europe: an attribution from moisture transport anomalies
No full textResumen de la ponencia presentada en: XXXVI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XXII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Cádiz y San Fernando del 13 al 15 de marzo de 2024.Precipitation trends in Europe have revealed opposing trends between different regions. The causes have been
attributed to the influence of teleconnection patterns and the increasing influence of persistent high-pressure
systems. In this paper we investigate these changes from another perspective, taking into account the variability
of atmospheric moisture transport from the climatological sources of moisture in each region. To carry out this
study, regions with statistically significant trends of opposite sign were determined using precipitation data from
various products. For each region, its oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources that contributed to precipitation
were determined. The results confirm the agreement in the representation of positive precipitation trends in
southeastern Europe and the western half of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as negative trend values in some parts
of central and western Europe. The North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea acted as the most important
sources