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A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for estimating solar radiation from sunshine duration records
No full textEstimating surface solar radiation is essential for applications in climatology, agriculture, and renewable energy, yet direct radiation measurements are often sparse or unavailable. This study presents a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for estimating daily solar radiation from sunshine duration records, using an extended version of the Angström–Prescott (A–P) empirical relationship. The model incorporates fixed effects, elevation-dependent covariates, spatially and temporally structured latent fields, and unstructured random effects, estimated using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) and the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach. Applied to a comprehensive observational dataset covering mainland Spain (1973–2024), the model reveals coherent spatial and seasonal patterns in the A–P coefficients, including a strong altitude effect on the slope parameter and opposing seasonal cycles for the intercept and slope. Validation against observed radiation data shows excellent agreement for most aspects of the distribution, with remaining discrepancies explained by known limitations in the sunshine duration measurements, particularly under overcast conditions. Long-term temporal trends in the slope suggest changes in atmospheric transmissivity, potentially linked to air quality and aerosol dynamics. The proposed framework provides a flexible, computationally efficient, and physically interpretable tool for reconstructing solar radiation fields in data-scarce regions, offering broad relevance for environmental and climate-related applications.This research work has been funded by the European Commission – NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094) through CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform ‘‘Clima (PTI Clima) / Development of Operational Climate Services’’, and by Aragón Government through grant E02-20R
Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
No full textGlobal warming alters the hydrological cycle, increasing heavy rainfall events worldwide. In October 2024, Valencia (Spain) experienced rainfall accumulations in a few hours surpassing annual averages (771.8 mm in 16 h in the official weather station at Turís) and breaking the record for one hour rainfall accumulation in Spain (184.6 mm), resulting in 230 fatalities. Here, we present a physical-based attribution study employing a km-scale pseudo-global warming storyline approach to assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change. We show that present-day conditions led to a 20% °C⁻¹ increase in 1-hour rainfall intensity, exceeding Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This intensification was driven by enhanced atmospheric moisture from warmer sea surface temperatures, leading to increased convective available potential energy, stronger updrafts, and microphysical changes including elevated graupel concentrations. These results demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change could intensify the occurrence of flash-floods in the Western Mediterranean region: in this particular case, it intensified the 6-h rainfall rate by 21%, amplified the area with total rainfall above 180 mm by 55%, and increased the volume of total rain within the Jucar River catchment by 19% compared to the pre-industrial era. This study highlights the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and improved urban planning to reduce the growing risks of hydrometeorological extremes in a rapidly warming world.This research has been supported by the grant PID2023-146344OB-I00 (CONSCIENCE) funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe”, and the ECMWF Special Projects (SPESMART and SPESVALE). This work is supported by the Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute of the Complutense University of Madrid. C.C.-S. acknowledged the grant supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (PRE2020-092343). A.H.-M. is grateful for his MCI/AEI predoctoral contract (FPU18/00824). M.M.M. acknowledges financial support from Next Generation EU, Mission 4, Component 1, CUP B53D23007360006, project “WIND RISK”. C.A-M. acknowledges support from the GVA. PROMETEO Grant CIPROM/2023/38; CSIC-LINCGLOBAL Ref. LINCG24042; and CSIC’s PTI-Clima. We would like to thank Dr. Linda van Garderen and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments to improve this work and for the effort they made to review this manuscript
Offshore wind energy in the Iberian Peninsula: A comparative analysis of availability, persistence, and complementarity with onshore wind and solar photovoltaic generation
No full textIncorporating renewable energy sources is crucial to achieve European climate neutrality by 2050. The Iberian Peninsula (IP) is a benchmark in this regard, with significant potential in offshore wind energy. This study analyzes availability, persistence, complementarity, and synergy with existing solar and onshore wind sources, using the COSMO-REA6 reanalysis and real generation data from iberian electricity grids. Offshore wind energy exhibits higher availability and lower seasonal variability compared to solar and onshore wind, particularly at medium-high capacity factor thresholds. Offshore wind energy shows significant potential to complement solar and onshore wind energy, especially in summer, when peak electricity demand occurs. The great geographical diversity of offshore wind resources determines substantial differences in the complementarity characteristics of the representative offshore wind areas in A Coruña, Girona, Malaga and Lisboa. Thus, the incorporation of offshore wind energy into the Iberian renewable energy mix can reduce dependence on a single energy source, increase energy security and mitigate the risk of energy shortages, especially during peak demand periods. This integration is aligned with the objectives of the European Green Deal and supports the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system in the IP.This work is part of the research project PID2020-118210RB-C21 (EMERGENTES 100%) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MCIN) and the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033)
Corpora Newsletter. N. 15 (enero 2026)
No full textBoletín bimestral para la comunicación corporativa de AEMET
Cambios en los fenómenos atmosféricos debidos al cambio climático
Full text linkPresentación realizada en el XIII Foro de Usuarios Aeronáuticos, celebrado de forma mixta (presencial y virtual) el 16 de enero de 2025
Balance hídrico nacional. Número 2/2025
No full textBalance hídrico correspondiente al 20 de enero de 2025
