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"Modelling Risk Recurrence Intervals For Agricultural Projects From Theoretical Probability Distribution And Spi: Semonkong, Lesotho, South Africa"
Get PDFArticleDrought events are major natural hazards that occur in various climate regimes with significant agricultural,
environmental and socio-economic adverse impacts. These hazards are insidious, obstinate and slow-onset
with creeping nature that lead to drought disasters mostly in agriculture dependent communities. In this
study, the recurrence intervals of drought were studied from theoretical probability distribution and
Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) at Semonkong station in Lesotho. Firstly the spring (Sep, Oct and
Nov) monthly precipitation data obtained from Lesotho Meteorological Services, was tested for outliers
and homogeneity (2 tailed p-value = 0.286) for quality control purposes. Secondly, Mann Kendall trend test
and probability distribution fitting were both determined by XLSTAT software. No significant trend was
revealed. A normal probability distribution fitted well to the data using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (pvalue
= 0.869) with a risk of 86.9% of rejecting the null hypothesis. DrinC software was then used to compute
drought monitoring parameters at three months’ time scale (SPI-3) as shown in equation 1. The normal
distribution parameters were then inputted in INSTAT software to determine exceedance probabilities and
corresponding precipitation values. All precipitation values exhibited by INSTAT were matched with their
SPI values. Given the focus of the current study, both recurrence intervals in years and non-exceedance
probabilities were determined. The results showed that the study area is highly likely to experience moderate,
severe and extreme or more drought events in 3.33, 5 and 10 years respectively at any given period. This is
really a short period that these events will occur at any given year, therefore, the study recommends that
authorities, Government, participating private and NGO’s put livelihood diversification measures in place
given that over 80% of Lesotho population’s livelihood depends on rain-fed-agriculture
Powder Characterization for a New Selective Laser Sintering Polypropylene Material (Laser PP CP 60) after Single Print Cycle Degradation
Get PDFArticleExperiments were conducted to characterise a new polymeric powder (Laser PP CP 60) from Diamond Plastics GmbH used in selective laser sintering (SLS) additive manufacturing (AM). Three different batches of the powder were tested in the study; virgin powder, used powder, and a mixture (50% virgin: 50% used) powder. The three batches of powder were subjected to scanning electron microscopy (SEM), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), and melt flow index (MFI) testing. Scanning electron microscopy was used to determine the morphology of particles. The distribution of powder particle sizes was established by analysing the acquired SEM images using ImageJ software. Differential scanning calorimetry was used to determine the peak melting point, degree of crystallisation, and the sintering window of the powder. Thermogravimetric analysis was utilised to determine temperatures of degradation of the powder considered in the study. Lastly, MFI testing was used to determine the variation of flowability of the powder. It was found that the three batches of powder considered showed poor, but allowable morphology and particle size distribution. The sintering window of the virgin Laser PP CP 60 polypropylene powder increased after a single cycle of printing by 28%, from 21.04℃ (virgin powder) to 26.95℃ (used powder). The sintering window was lower than that for polyamide polymer, which might have contributed to the high shrinkage rates observed during processing of the material, as a narrow sintering window results in difficulties of regulating the cooling rate of the printed parts. The three batches of powder showed high degradation temperatures, which makes the material suitable for SLS processing. Finally, the three batches of powder showed low values of MFI, which indicates that the molten material has a high viscosity. This explains the difficulties experienced in processing the material
Experimental Investigation of Dynamic Elastic Properties of Reinforced Coconut Shell Powder/Epoxy Resin Composites
Get PDFArticleThe purpose of this study is to investigate experimentally the dynamic elastic behavior of a coconut shell powder filler reinforced epoxy resins composite of different filler sizes and volume fractions. The dynamic mechanical analysis of coconut shell powder reinforced epoxy composites was carried out with special reference to the effect of filler loading, and temperature. The result showed that the core properties of the components, morphology of the system and the nature of interface between the phases determine the dynamic mechanical properties of the composite. Below the glass transition temperature, the storage modulus was generally found to increase with increasing weight fraction of the reinforcing filler and a reverse trend as temperature rose through the glass transition temperature. The loss modulus was generally seen to decrease with decreasing filler weight fraction for temperatures below the glass transition point and vice versa. Moreover, the curves for loss modulus were seen to shift to lower temperatures with increasing filler content, signifying a decreasing glass transition temperature with increasing filler content. The damping factor was seen to decrease in magnitude with increasing content of filler, with a trend of the peak values shifting to the lower temperatures
The Development Of An Oversight And Accountability Framework For Municipalities In The Free State Province
Get PDFThesisSection 152 of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996 mandates that local communities receive democratic and accountable governance and they and community organisations’ involvement in the matters of local government should be encouraged. In terms of Section 4(2) of the Municipal Systems Act (MSA), 2000, the municipal council is the executive and legislative authority of the municipality and must use its resources in the best interests of the local community. The municipal council, as the highest authority in the municipality, has significant powers of approval and oversight responsibilities. As such, the speaker, as the chairperson of the municipal council, fulfils a critical oversight role to hold the political executives to account for their actions. The mayor (if the municipality has an executive committee) or executive mayor (if there is no executive committee) is the political leader who directs the fiscal and financial matters of the municipality. Section 56(3)(e) provides that the executive mayor must oversee service provision in the municipality and ensure that it is sustainable. It was highlighted in this study that, in terms of Section 59 of the MSA of 2000, it is incumbent on the municipal council to develop a system of delegation that maximises the administrative and operational efficiency of the municipality. This section also provides for adequate checks and balances and empowers the municipal council to delegate certain powers to perform any of the municipality’s duties to any other political structure, political office-bearer, councillor, or staff member of the municipality and, likewise, to withdraw any delegation or instruction. In terms of Section 60 of the Municipal Financial Management Act (MFMA), 2003, the municipal manager (MM) is the accounting officer of the municipality and he/she is accountable for the effective and efficient management of all municipal funds received and all payments made by the municipality. The MM, as the accounting officer of the municipality, fulfils a key accountability role to promote the sound financial management of the municipality.
It is clear that while political office-bearers (mayor or executive mayor, speaker, municipal councillors) are responsible for overseeing the financial and administrative performance of the municipality, the municipal council holds the accounting officer and relevant municipal officials to account for the manner in which they manage the financial and administrative matters or the municipality. Despite numerous legislative prescripts and the establishment of mandated oversight and accountable structures, all the municipalities in the Free State province failed to provide accountable local government to their communities. This was attested by the 2017-2018 Auditor-General’s audit report that the financial positions of all the municipalities (100%) of the Free State province had deteriorated to the extent of total breakdowns in financial controls. The Auditor- General reports for 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 warned that the blatant disregard for controls and compliance with key legislation have led to deteriorating accountability and leadership failures (AGSA, 2018:55; AGSA, 2019:12). The deterioration of all the Free State province municipalities’ financial position is proof that citizens failed to hold functionaries to account for poor performance. It was argued in this study that the weak control environment in municipalities in the Free State province led to a lack of consequences and poor oversight and accountability. Thus, there is an urgent need to ensure that the political oversight structures and MM give effect to the constitutional obligations to involve community members and community organisations in the affairs of local government.
The aim of the study was to positively contribute to instituted oversight and accountability in municipalities in the Free State province by developing a framework for oversight and accountability that promotes democratic local governance. The objective with this proposed framework was to provide a holistic and coherent approach by identifying key statutory and legislative frameworks, policies, regulations, structures, role players as well as support and enforcement structures required to promote political, financial, administrative and social oversight and accountability within municipalities of the Free State province.
Oversight structures must ensure consequences for non-compliance with legislation, policies, regulations, serious maladministration in connection with the affairs of municipalities, and other transgressions and irregularities. To be effective, enforcement agencies should conduct investigations of any reported transgressions and take required disciplinary steps. The proposed framework promotes consequences for non-compliance and non- performance in that mayors, accounting officers, chief financial officers (CFOs) and relevant officials in municipalities should be accountable for any financial losses incurred by municipalities during their term in office. As indicated in the framework, political office-bearers should give effect to the constitutional mandate to promote accountable local government to local communities. In addition to the proposed framework for oversight and accountability, this study contained specific recommendations to promote effective oversight and accountability. The first was that all municipalities in the Free State province should comply with the provisions of the Constitution of 1996 together and other applicable local government legislative frameworks, policies and supply chain management (SCM) regulations, with defaulters held accountable for their actions. Thus, there must be consequences for non-compliance with the afore mentioned. In addition, municipal councillors should adhere to Section 11(a) of the Code of Conduct of Councillors as provided in Schedule 1 of the MSA, 2000 which stipulates that a councillor may not, unless determined by law and mandated by council, interfere in the management or administration of any department of the municipal council. Here also, defaulters should be held to account for their actions. Moreover, municipal councils should adhere to Section 152(1) of the Constitution, 1996 which provides the objectives of local government. Furthermore, the oversight roles of the speaker, municipal council, mayor or executive mayor and municipal public accounts committee (MPAC) should be strengthened in municipalities of the Free State province to hold the executive to account and to ensure efficient and effective use of municipal resources. Likewise, the MM, as the accounting officer, should personally be held accountable for any loss of allocated funds or assets as a result of any deficiency in the administrative or managerial arrangements of the municipality. Consequently, failure to execute assigned responsibilities should result in the removal of the MM from office.
The Public Audit Amendment Act, 2018, states that if the accounting officer fails to implement remedial action, the Auditor-General may issue a certificate of debt in the name of the relevant accounting officer. As a result, it is crucial that internal controls intended to prevent irregularities and deviations from the MFMA, 2003, and SCM regulations be strengthened in all municipalities of the Free State province. It was therefore recommended that more should be done to empower ward committees and strengthen their role to promote participatory governance and accountable local governance. Also, the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) should investigate the possibility to establish an independent local government ombudsperson to address the crisis of perennial service delivery protests in municipalities. Although no legislative prescripts make provision for a recall procedure, SALGA should investigate the possibility of the implementation of the recall procedure of councillors and mayors as a mechanism to improve public accountability in local government. In this way, delinquent political office-bearers could be recalled. Yet another step to ensure sound administrative and financial management within the municipality of the Free State province is the filling of key positions, such as senior manager, which are increasingly vacant. Lastly, provincial government should ensure that it supports and effectively monitors the performance of all municipalities within the Free State province.
Specific recommendations were made from the empirical study to promote effective oversight and accountability in municipalities in the Free State province. One recommendation was that CoGTA should investigate a possible recall procedure. Concerns included that municipal elections could be used to revoke the electoral mandate of an elected official and that voters did not have any direct way of holding elected municipal representatives to account during the term for which were elected. This could be addressed by SALGA ensuring that all municipal councillors clearly understand their oversight role and the important role of portfolio committees, MPACs, audit committees and municipal performance audit committees in promoting oversight and accountability in the municipalities. As such, municipal councillors should receive training regarding the difference between oversight and political interference in the administration of the municipality. Speakers, mayors, executive mayors and municipal councillors should also receive training regarding key municipal legislations and SCM regulations to fulfil their oversight role effectively and ensuring that the municipal administration implements them.
National and Provincial Treasury should ensure that functionaries unequivocally understand the MFMA of 2003. Mayors should understand their respective oversight roles in municipal financial management and administration and MMs ensure that the actions and conduct of administrative municipal staff agrees with the Code of Conduct for Municipal Staff Members in Schedule 2 of the MSA of 2000. The 2015-2016 Auditor-General report urged the Free State local government political and administrative leadership to take accountability for, and address, control weaknesses to improve audit outcomes. It is incumbent on the municipal council and mayor to ensure that the MM implements these recommendations as continued inaction weakens oversight and accountability of the financial affairs of most municipalities. Undoubtedly, more should be done to educate and inform local communities about the mandate of the local sphere
Engendering Transparency In Value Determination of Wetlands In Nigeria's Niger Delta: A Case For An Abductive Approach
Get PDFPublished ArticleReviews of previous investigations into the causes of restiveness and economic deprivation in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria reveal that the payment of inadequate compensation for acquired landed assets has contributed immensely to this incidence of the se circumstances. Whereas several studies have sought to investigate the reasons for such complaints, a paucity of studies seeking to conduct such investigation from a theory development praxis has been noted. This study is prompted by this observation. A parallel convergent mixed method research design was deployed for data elicitation. Data was obtained through a mix of interviews and questionnaire surveys. The information sought was premised on the need to understand the approaches used by valuers and to determine if any research approach was applied during the process. The emergent data was using descriptive statistics. Findings from the study indicate that the dominant method for valuation of wetlands for compensation purposes; the pre determined compensation rates method, was predicated on the deductive approach. After a review of the four approaches available, the paper recommends the adoption of an abductive research approach for value determination in such instances due to the inherent principles associated with the approach
A New Hybrid MCDM Model: Sustainable Supplier Selection in a Construction Company
Get PDFPublished ArticleSustainable development is one of the most important preconditions for preserving
resources and balanced functioning of a complete supply chain in different areas. Taking into
account the complexity of sustainable development and a supply chain, different decisions have to
be made day-to-day, requiring the consideration of different parameters. One of the most important
decisions in a sustainable supply chain is the selection of a sustainable supplier and, often the applied
methodology is multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). In this paper, a new hybrid MCDM model
for evaluating and selecting suppliers in a sustainable supply chain for a construction company
has been developed. The evaluation and selection of suppliers have been carried out on the basis
of 21 criteria that belong to all aspects of sustainability. The determination of the weight values of
criteria has been performed applying the full consistency method (FUCOM), while a new rough
complex proportional assessment (COPRAS) method has been developed to evaluate the alternatives.
The rough Dombi aggregator has been used for averaging in group decision-making while evaluating
the significance of criteria and assessing the alternatives. The obtained results have been checked
and confirmed using a sensitivity analysis that implies a four-phase procedure. In the first phase, the
change of criteria weight was performed, while, in the second phase, rough additive ratio assessment
(ARAS), rough weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), rough simple additive
weighting (SAW), and rough multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC)
have been applied. The third phase involves changing the parameter r in the modeling of rough
Dombi aggregator, and the fourth phase includes the calculation of Spearman’s correlation coefficient
(SCC) that shows a high correlation of ranks
Adoption of Information and Communication Technologies in Teaching and Learning at a University
Get PDFPublished ArticleThe study was a cross-sectional exploratory survey to determine lecturers’ and students’ use of the core e-learning site, e-Thuto, at the Central University of Technology, Free State (CUT). The goal was to determine the adoption of electronic learning via information and communication technologies (ICTs) towards the improvement of the quality of teaching and learning. Yet, research cites several resource and skills challenges hindering ICT adoption in teaching and learning in developing economies that remain unaddressed. Data were collected from 10 lecturers in the Department of Communication Sciences at the CUT and 90 undergraduate students from all the four CUT faculties in order to correlate lecturers’ and students’ perspectives. Therefore, a structured interview schedule was used. Data were analysed using the emic and etic approaches where the respondents’ categorisation of behaviour, correlated with conceptual categories from literature, was regarded as the reality in the study context. The findings indicate a limited adoption of e-Thuto in teaching and learning due to several impediments. The policy implications point towards a more systematic integration of ICTs into the curriculum.
Keywords: adoption, diffusion, e-Thuto, ICTs, learning, teachin
Parent Sex Education Beliefs in a Rural South African Setting
Get PDFPublished Articleeducation. The informant parents (n = 30) were predominantly rural dwelling (female = 70%; black = 95%; rural = 80%;
age range = 30 to 65 years old) from the Free State, South Africa. They reported on their child sex education beliefs;
addressing appropriateness, resources, and content issues. Thematic analysis revealed that parents were more comfortable
engaging in sex education with their older or young adult children rather than the younger children. Moreover, the parents
considered sex education topics on sexual intercourse and instruments taboo subjects. Resourcing parents regarding sex
education would require working around cultural barriers about the age appropriateness of sex education, as well as
permissible content
Stochastic Soil Erosion Risk Modelling and Simulation Using Fournier Index
Get PDFPublished ArticleApproximately 280 million tons of cereal crop is lost from 108 million hectares of croplands through soil
erosion. This study aimed to (i) monitor soil erosion hazard over 48 year- long precipitation time series, (ii)
determine if changes exist for informed decision making and (iii) provide management stakeholders with
relevant and scientifically sound information for effective proactive disaster management. Fourier index
data was computed annually, and for four seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter, for the years 1967
to 2014. Each series was fitted to a suitable distribution and then, based on the fitted distributions, marginal
probabilities were computed according Fournier index categories: 100.
After some exploratory analyses trying out various distributions, the following distributions were fitted to
the data: Gumbel, three-parameter Weibull and three- parameter log-normal. Q-Q plots were generated to
assess the fit of the various distributions. Overall, the three-parameter log-normal distribution provided at
least a reasonably good fit to all five data sets. In order to have a model (distribution) that fits reasonably
well to all five data sets (rather than fitting possibly different distributions to the five data sets), and to have
a model with a reasonably simple functional form, the three-parameter log-normal distribution was chosen.
Based on the fitted three-parameter log-normal distributions the required probabilities were calculated.
The greatest soil loss was detected in summer and autumn with 89% and 66% respectively. However, no
significant loss of soil was found on annual basis
Cultural Tourism: Cultural Presentation at the Basotho Cultural Village, Free State, South Africa
Get PDFPublished ArticleSouth Africa is a unique country with a melting pot of miscellaneous
cultures. Many of these cultures have been preserved and displayed
in the form of cultural villages. To sustain these cultural villages, it is
important to invest in a market-based and product-based empirical
research. This study therefore, investigates the visitor’s responses
to the experience and the cultural presentation at Basotho Cultural
Village, Free State, South Africa. The population of the study was
domestic and international tourists visiting the village. Data was
gathered from 305 tourists by means of a self-administered
questionnaire. The results gathered provide the visitor’s
demographic profile, the visitor’s experience and the overall
satisfaction with the cultural presentation. The village is a drawcard
for both local (n = 251) and international tourists (n = 54) who sees
the cultural experience at the village as extremely important. The
results indicate the high level of satisfaction with the overall
experience as (90.2%) of the visitors were satisfied. However, the
research also indicates that there are concerns over the service,
facilities and staff portrayal of genuine Basotho culture at the
village. The study highlights critical aspects of visitor experience at
a heritage site for the village management and destination
marketing organisations (DMO’s)