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Developing logit calibration model for wildfire smoke characterization based on sentinel-2 multispectral data and machine learning techniques
No full textWildfires are complicated incidents that arise as results of both natural causes and anthropological activities. They have long been regarded as the most devastating phenomena globally. Wildfires are considered a powerful natural factor which has detrimental effect on the global environment. This study was aimed at developing logit calibration models for wildfire smoke prediction based on Sentinel-2 multispectral data and machine learning techniques. Remotely sensed data, in the form of the Sentinel-2 imagery, was used as the base from which wildfire smoke plumes were spectrally characterized and distinguished from clouds and flame using endmember selection. The Smoke Detection Index (SDI) was generated to detect the relative abundance of smoke from the imagery. The Cloud Detection Index (CDI) was also generated from Sentinel-2 imagery to detect the relative abundance of clouds. The bi-level thresholding technique was also used to characterize wildfire smoke from the imagery. The logit models were developed through multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network to predict wildfire smoke plumes. The Relative Operator Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) metrics was used to evaluate the logit models performance. The spectral signature pattern from endmembers revealed that wildfire smoke behaves different across Sentinel-2 multispectral channels with shortwave 1 channel (SWIR-1) exhibiting the highest radiance value. The signature patterns from endmember selection also revealed the distinctive spectral characterization of smoke from those of clouds. The findings showed that whilst smoke exhibited high radiance value on SWIR-1 channel, clouds exhibited high radiance value in the near infrared (NIR), signifying that smoke and cloud are spectrally separatable in the NIR. The smoke-containing pixels from bi-level thresholding were characterized by SDI values that ranged between 0.089 and 0.561. Suggesting that pixels associated with wildfire smoke are limited to this range of values. The logit models developed showed that smoke is predicted in SWIR-2. The ROC-AUC value obtained by this model was 0.77. The Implications emerging from the ROC-AUC results revealed that MLP model employed on the SWIR-2 band present a viable and accurate prediction of wildfire smoke plume. The findings of this study suggest that wildfire smoke is efficiently predicted at the shortwave channels of the electromagnetic spectrum. The wildfire smoke can be spectrally distinguished from cloud in the near infrared channel.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 202
Assessing the invasive status of the Oenothera species (evening primroses) in South Africa
No full textOenothera species (Myrtales: Onagraceae), commonly known as evening primroses, were introduced to South Africa for various purposes, where they established alien populations and expanded their distribution nationwide. Although some of these species are listed as emerging invaders in South Africa, their invasive status is currently unclear. This study assessed the invasive status of eight Oenothera species listed as emerging invaders in South Africa, namely, O. biennis, O. glazioviana, O. laciniata, O. indecora, O. stricta, O. jamesii and O. rosea. The study also focused on the biotic interactions of Oenothera with native arthropod species to assess any potential ecological impacts. The distribution of the eight Oenothera species was mapped using available occurrence records from sources such as the SAPIA database, herbarium records, and BRAHMS database. Additional records were collected by conducting field surveys in KwaZulu- Natal and Eastern Cape provinces. The distribution of these species was mapped using QGIS. Most Oenothera species were found in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Free State, Mpumalanga and Western Cape provinces, while North-West, Northern Cape, and Limpopo provinces had fewer species. The grassland, savanna and fynbos biomes had more Oenothera species than other biomes in South Africa. The results indicated that O. biennis, O. glaziviana, and O. rosea are spreading at a preceding rate. In South Africa, the species flower predominantly in the spring and summer seasons. Species distribution modelling was conducted using Maxent to identify climatically suitable areas for establishing evening primrose populations. Species distribution models results show that the climatically suitable areas are concentrated in the central, eastern, and south-western regions of South Africa. The most considerable climatic variables contributing to the distribution of most Oenothera species were the annual mean temperature and precipitation during the driest month. To evaluate biotic interactions between native arthropods and Oenothera species and assess the potential ecological impacts, arthropods were collected from two Oenothera species (O. biennis and O. glazioviana) in different localities (only in Eastern Cape: East London and Fort Beaufort). The arthropods collected were identified, and diversity indices were calculated to determine the diversity of native arthropods collected in sites where these species are present. The overall number of individual arthropods collected was 768, belonging to six orders. These arthropod species belong to three feeding guilds: herbivores, predators, and palynivores. The ANOVA results showed that these species statistically differ in diversity for all the diversity indices. Overall, there were significant interactions between the arthropods’ orders and their feeding guilds. Lastly, the risk analysis framework assessed the potential for managing and listing two species (O. biennis and O. rosea) in the NEM: BA A&IS list. After considering all the likelihood elements, environmental, socioeconomic, and potential impacts, the risks posed by Oenothera biennis in South Africa were found to be high. The recommendation of this analysis suggests that O. biennis and O. rosea species be listed as category 1b in the NEMBA A & IS regulations list. The results of this study indicate that these congeners experience ecological differences, resulting in their varied distribution and invasion. Furthermore, they offer new insights regarding the geographical patterns and potential distribution of Oenothera species in South Africa. Moreover, it also provides recommendations for the management of the species in the South African context.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 202
Arts-based participatory research for more equitable ocean governance in South Africa
No full textThis research explored the usefulness of arts-based participatory research (ABPR) in identifying more equitable ocean governance in South Africa. Co-developing the ABPR with Indigenous and local knowledge holders as co-researchers, the research expanded on opportunities to inform more equitable marine spatial planning (MSP) and marine protected areas (MPAs) processes. Working with 24 co-researchers in Algoa Bay (Eastern Cape) and 24 co-researchers in Mandeni (KwaZulu-Natal) for over two years, the thesis formulated and contextually adapted an approach incorporating photovoice and digital storytelling for co-researchers to share their ocean knowledges, priorities and stories. As people hold various priorities, interests and knowledges of the ocean, these knowledges shape how people interact with the ocean and coast. Despite a multitude of interconnected and complex ocean knowledges (pluriversality), a growing body of literature describes the exclusionary, top-down and inequitable nature of area-based ocean management in South Africa, which do not recognise Indigenous and local knowledge systems (ILKS). The research was conceptualised as a response to these realities, and the ABPR processes were developed with knowledge holders who felt excluded from current ocean governance approaches. Working within a broader theoretical framework of social and environmental justice, the research drew on contextually relevant literature and theoretical paradigms such as social sustainability, social-ecological systems, decolonial and postcolonial theory, social learning, transdisciplinary knowledge co-production and arts-based research. The ABPR methods were carefully crafted together with co-researchers, and photovoice experts assisted with cross-learning workshops. The ABPR included in situ photography and storytelling processes to ensure co-researchers could convey embodied, daily lived experiences or re-imagined connections with the ocean and coast. Embracing and reclaiming world-making through processes of participatory community mapping, the ABPR also facilitated collaborative analysis of co-researchers’ relationships and interactions with the ocean in light of current MSP and MPA processes. The final photostories from the ABPR processes were shared by the co-researchers at two multimedia exhibitions and two multi-stakeholder workshops that brought together relevant government representatives, coastal managers, conservation authorities, scientists and local community members. The results from the ABPR processes provided a number of novel and significant insights into ocean knowledges, connections and priorities that are currently not recognised in ocean governance processes in South Africa. Specifically, the ABPR proved useful in highlighting strong spiritual and traditional connections to the ocean and facilitating direct engagements and social learning processes between various ocean priorities to start bridging the gap between ILKS, marine science and ocean decision-making. Furthermore, the ABPR was valuable in mapping sociocultural priorities and interactions with the ocean, which could inform more inclusive and equitable MSP and MPAs processes. The ABPR surfaced opportunities for cognitive justice, where ILKS holders could own the knowledge production process, and identify opportunities for greater co-management in ocean decision-making. The insights from the research are relevant for several disciplines, research practices, and ocean governance processes. In summary, the ABPR process was useful to identify practical approaches and pathways necessary for embracing and working with the complexity of social-ecological marine systems and the plurality of ocean knowledges for more equitable ocean futures.Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 202
The role of dynamic capabilities and enterprise risk management on SMMEs business continuity in Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality
Get PDFBusiness continuity does not happen by chance, it is rather enabled or propelled by various activities in business operations. This study examines the role of dynamic capabilities and enterprise risk management and their role in the continuity of Small, Micro and Medium Enterprises (SMMEs) in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality. Fixated in the positivist paradigm, this study adopted a quantitative research approach to collect data from 105 SMMEs registered with the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber, who were sampled using stratified and convenience sampling. Data was collected via an online survey on Google Forms and analysed using SPSS version 23. Descriptive statistics and statistical analysis methods were applied using SPSS version 23. The analysis was done in three phases. Firstly, the researcher conducted a reliability analysis of the questionnaire, and secondly, a descriptive statistical analysis to examine the research questions. The third phase was a statistical analysis to test the hypothesis. A Pearson‟s correlation test was performed to test the relationship between dynamic capabilities and enterprise risk management. The findings showed that, as enterprise risk is managed, dynamic capabilities increase, and thus there is a significant relationship between dynamic capabilities and enterprise risk management. The correlation between the variables which measured the dynamic capabilities and those which measured enterprise risk management seemed to be significant as they were all above 0.05. Therefore, it can be concluded that dynamic capabilities and enterprise risk management contribute to business continuity. This means that dynamic capabilities enhance business continuity, dynamic capabilities enhance enterprise risk management and enterprise risk management enhances business continuity. To leverage these positive relations, SMMEs ought to employ ERM experts or engage ERM consultants who will design Enterprise Risk management (ERM) strategies that are compatible with their enterprises. It is also recommended for SMMEs to have quarterly evaluations of the Enterprise Risk Management strategies and Dynamic Capabilities that enhance their business continuity planningThesis (MBA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Business School, 202
Tourism and economic growth in the Republics of Botswana and Madagascar: an empirical investigation of causal links
Get PDFThis study investigated the Granger causality of tourism and economic growth in the Republics of Botswana and Madagascar during the period 1995 2019. The study was inspired by speculation regarding the influence of tourism on the economic growth of the two countries, given that the literature cautions that the relationship is not always direct and obvious, but rather depends on the country and changes over time. The ARDL-bounds F-test was used to test for co-integration and for Granger causality, with the ECM-based multivariate Granger-causality test used. The results confirm that tourism and economic growth have a prevailing stable, long-run co-integration in both countries, with a unidirectional causation, in that tourism is propelled by economic growth. These findings support the growth-led tourism GDP TOR hypothesis for both countries, and do not corroborate the popular tourism-led growth TPR GDP hypothesis. The study findings imply that both countries’ rich natural resources are insufficient to propel tourism growth and drive GDP in the absence of a supportive economic environment. The study therefore recommends that investment and policy efforts in Botswana and Madagascar focus more on overall economic development than at tourism per se. This would create an environment conducive for attracting and retaining visitors to these countries, and thus boost tourism.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 202
Factors contributing to operational excellence in a pharmaceutical manufacturer in East London, South Africa
Get PDFTo ensure that high quality, secure and effective pharmaceutical goods are consistently produced and supplied to the appropriate end user, pharmaceutical manufacturing companies operate in a highly regulated environment. The idea that quality is not assessed is incorrect; rather, it is built, is at the heart of this production environment. Since fulfilling deadlines on time in full is the benchmark for good customer service, to achieve this results in numerous quality limits that have an impact on the quick delivery of medicines. Companies are often competing for the same clients; thus, there is increasing competition, which is mostly due to the availability of reasonable and inexpensive generics. The most profitable company will be the one which operates and produces at low cost, with great efficiency and economies of scale. Furthermore, the generic pharmaceutical firm is not immune from the fundamental purpose of business, which is to make money for the shareholders and add value for the clients. In order to maintain competitiveness in a pharmaceutical company which operates in East London, South Africa, this study aims to identify the factors that lead to perceived operational excellence. Respondents were given a standardised questionnaire; thus the study employed a quantitative research methodology. The sample size for the study was determined by randomly selecting 100 employees, composed of Operators, General Assistants, Production Team Leaders, Production Pharmacists, Pharmacist Assistants and Artisans from Pharmaceutical Company X. With the aid of a research assistant, the questionnaire was distributed to and answered by respondents. The gathered data were analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27 for Windows. The results of the study were then shown in cross tabulations, pie charts and bar graphs. The main outcomes of the study revealed that the majority of consumers believed pharmaceutical products were of a high calibre in terms of quality. Furthermore, the majority of participants agreed that operational excellence is important in companies that produce fast-moving consumer goods, like the pharmaceutical industry does. The survey also revealed the need for operational excellence in the pharmaceutical industry. Given that quality in the pharmaceutical industry has grown to be a crucial issue, the study suggests that the importance of pharmaceutical product quality needs to be more widely understood. Academics, pharmaceutical companies and legislators will all benefit from the study.Thesis (MBA) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Business School, 202
An alternative model for the financial sustainability of social services sector NGOs in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
Get PDFThe work of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) is traditionally deemed “unprofitable”, yet they provide valuable services to communities. With an exponentially growing NGO sector of more than 270 000 NGOs, of which 40% are social service sector NGOs, and an increased demand for NGO services, a decrease in government and donor funding has heightened the debate on the need for financial sustainability of NGOs in South Africa. NGOs are important development actors, and their financial sustainability is crucial as it ensures that the sector continues to be relevant and effective in ensuring that social needs are met. Using a mixed methods sequential explanatory research design, the study focused on the social services sector NGOs in the Eastern Cape with the aim of understanding their financial challenges and strategies being employed to address such and, in the process, develop an alternative model for the financial sustainability of these NGOs. A conceptual framework was developed from six theories which were used to explore the concept of financial sustainability drawing insights from the internal and external environment of the participating NGOs. These theories were used together to emphasise that no one theory could single-handedly and holistically explain the concept of the financial sustainability of social service sector NGOs. The use of multiple theories also came from the realisation that NGOs in South Africa, in general, are struggling to survive owing to a myriad of factors which include increased competition for resources and reduced funding from their traditional source. Furthermore, donor dependency, staff and organisational capacity, management practices and values, and the interplay of an NGO with its stakeholders and environment all have a bearing on financial sustainability. Being the poorest province in South Africa heightens the need for social services in the Eastern Cape. From the study, it was established that 48% of social services sector NGOs depended on government funding while only 16% had the capacity to generate their own income. However, depending on government funding was not sustainable and this was crippling the social services sector. The study also established that “young” NGOs struggled to secure funding when compared to their “mature” counterparts. In addition, staff capacity and the values of an organisation affected income generation and how funds were sourced. Lack of capacity to fundraise and/or implement commercial activities had affected the financial sustainability of the social sector NGOs. The interplay of an NGO and its stakeholders and environment also had a bearing on the financial sustainability of the sector. The study provides a multipronged approach and perspective to financial sustainability. The proposed financial sustainability model challenges social services sector NGOs to consciously reflect on their internal and external environments as well a come up with strategies that positively affect their financial sustainability. From the study, the strategies that were being implemented to realise financially sustainability included, retaining current donors, reaching out to new donors, innovative fundraising approaches, redesigning programme activities to include cost-recovery components, collaborating with other NGOs as well as commercial ventures. This study concludes that social services sector NGOs need all these approaches in addition to improving staff capacity and adopting a culture that enhances organisational performance. There is need to build a system where NGOs are adequately supported to do their work without worrying about income and where well-designed financial sustainability components help NGOs, funders, government and communities identify where change is needed.Thesis (DPhil) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 202
Sustainable conservation practices in Tigray, Ethiopia
Get PDFAfter the short-lived Derg regime's land reform in 1975, Ethiopia's smallholder farmers were granted equitable tenure and ownership rights for the first time in history. Furthermore, since 1991 there was a growing desire for better living conditions among smallholder farmers. As a result of the involvement of smallholder farmers, Sustainable Conservation Practices (SCP) was regarded as an effective symbol of government land and rural development policy in Ethiopia in the last two decades. SCP in Tigray, Ethiopia has been hailed as a model of conservation practices impacting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and sustainable development. It has, however, been accompanied by both criticism and acclaim. Contrary to the success narratives of the SCP, Tigray's smallholder farmers continue to face livelihood challenges and climate threats. The primary aim of this study was to critically assess and explain the livelihood impact of SCPs and ongoing participation in soil and water conservation practices (SWCPs) among Tigrayan smallholder farmers. Previously, studies on the issue have focused on SWC techniques or local watershed management. There has been a lack of adequate research on the historical and political interactions between smallholder farmers and the state regarding land conservation in the past two decades. A mixed method approach was used to address this knowledge gap in four tabiyas through multiple sampling methods, using purposive sampling methods to select two reported models of conservation and random sampling methods to select two average tabiyas, in three different woredas. Mixed methods research was used to combine quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis techniques. The study revealed that Ethiopia's land use laws and policies under previous regimes have led to current challenges in sustainable land conservation and poverty reduction. As a result of land tenure laws and rights imposed by previous regimes, the challenges for the sustainable land use rights and land conservation practices continue to impact the livelihood of smallholder farmers. To demonstrate the success of land reform and conservation efforts, the government has been promoting the continued use of SWC practices by smallholder farmers in the last two decades. As part of SWC practices, political mobilisation and incentives such as safety-net programmes and agricultural inputs are used to encourage participation. Despite admirable advances in land degradation management, there were no appreciable differences between the results from the model and the average tabiya categories in terms of livelihood improvements. The success of the model tabiyas has proven difficult to replicate and it is still too early to judge whether the success of model tabiyas will be sustainable if they do not continue to receive extensive support from government and external stakeholders. The integration of local knowledge is crucial for the success of SCP, and the cumulative effect of the ‗one size fits all‘ approach in Tigray contributed to the failure to see substantial changes in the rural households. Thus, this study recommends the transformation of the rural and agricultural sector requires comprehensive, reliable, indigenous, and scientific paths that are informed by the local and lived experience of the rural households, rather than telling the success stories of conservation over again.Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism, 202
The State of the Adoption of BIM in South Africa (A Kwa Zulu Natal Evaluation)
Get PDFThe construction sector is a key role player in South Africa’s economic development but is also known to have poor quality standards, and efficiency and lacks sustainable development. Building information modelling (BIM) has internationally been leveraged to improve the industry’s efficiency and could allow the local built environment sector to attain the same kinds of productivity gains that have been realised in other sectors. The value proposition of the wholescale BIM adoption in South Africa is irrefutable, given the widespread adoption by other nations. However, in South Africa, there is no known official position regarding mandating BIM for Infrastructure Projects. The Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) has maintained that the initial adoption of BIM in South Africa must be market and client driven. This study explores the issues surrounding the implementation of Building Information Modelling (BIM) through the research lens of built environment professionals based in Durban by ascertaining the state of BIM implementation amongst role players in the local construction industry. An understanding of the relative level of knowledge of BIM and its potential uses will be analysed. It explores the barriers to BIM and how it affects its uptake in organisations and pervasive use in the local construction sector. The methodology for this paper is based on a literature review of the key global trends relative to BIM implementation and thereafter a quantitative research methodology was then employed. A key finding was that the lack of knowledge about what BIM is and its potential uses, which is pervasive among the built environment professions affects the extent of its adoption. Other important outcomes were found to be the prevalence of the notion that scarcity of appropriately trained or experienced professionals in BIM in organisations retards its adoption and implementation, and the overarching perception that the implementation of BIM is constrained by resistance to change by staff and leadership at an organisational level. The paper concludes with observations and recommendations that flow from the research findings.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Engineering, the Built Environment and Technology, School of Built Environment and Civil Engineering, 202
Devastation and restoration: the use of Namibian dense salt blocks and the Cape Cross Salt Pans as visual metaphors
Get PDFThis mini-thesis explores personal experiences during seasons of loss and grief using physical landscapes, specifically Namibian dense salt mining activities at the Cape Cross Salt Pans, as metaphors for devastation and restoration. Furthermore, the thesis investigates the connection between spiritual and physical landscapes through song and dreams to interpret personal experiences of loss and grief. The thesis explores how believers may find physical places of value outside the constraints of formal religious activities and how these experiences could evoke spiritual landscapes. The qualitative auto-ethnographical approach followed in this study proved an appropriate research methodology, explicitly involving observation and documentation of the physical landscape and reflection on personal experiences, such as dreams. In coming to terms with personal experiences of grief and loss, the individual results of the process were generated using methods such as retrospective reflection and observation. In my findings, I unpack how I found personal meaning from my creative and academic explorations. The metaphoric characteristics of dense salt blocks figuratively express ‘metamorphosis’, ‘weeping’, and ‘growth’. My findings include that one can represent healing and restorative elements with artistic value. The Namibian salt mining industry is typically removed from artistic activities and expression, but I succeeded in forging an atypical relationship with the industry players in an area of the salt block mining industry. In my practice, I explored the character of mined resources, in this case, dense salt blocks, by changing their inherent properties from low-value commercial minerals into unique art objects. In the process, I examined the metaphoric associations that organically mined material, in this case, salt blocks, may hold. Therefore, I link personal creative storytelling to a site with spiritual and sacred values and thus become a place to come to terms with loss and grief.Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Humanities, Fine Art, 202