Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy Of Sciences
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    PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA DURING 21ST CENTURY UNDER RCPS

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    Based on integrated simulations of 26 global climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this study predicts changes in temperature and precipitation across China in the 21st century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and analyzes uncertainties of the predictions using Taylor diagrams. Results show that increases of average annual temperature in China using three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are 1.87 degrees C, 2.88 degrees C and 5.51 degrees C, respectively. Increases in average annual precipitation are 0.124, 0.214, and 0.323 mm/day, respectively. The increased temperature and precipitation in the 21st century are mainly contributed by the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China. Uncertainty analysis shows that most CMIP5 models could predict temperature well, but had a relatively large deviation in predicting precipitation in China in the 21st century. Deviation analysis shows that more than 80% of the area of China had stronger signals than noise for temperature prediction; however, the area proportion that had meaningful signals for precipitation prediction was less than 20%. Thus, the multi-model ensemble was more reliable in predicting temperature than precipitation because of large uncertainties of precipitation

    Exploring brand preference and its spatial patterns in the Chinese automobile market

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    China has remained the world's largest new-automobile market, where personal vehicles play an increasingly important role in people's daily lives. Using automobile sales volumes for 337 prefecture-level cities from the Economic Advisory Centre of the State Information Centre, this study examined automobile brand preference and its spatial variation in China. The market shares of automobile brands and revealed comparative advantages in city markets were analysed, and geographical patterns were explored using spatial statistics. Analytical results revealed apparent regional heterogeneity and spatial concentration in automobile brand preference across China's automobile market

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    Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy Of Sciences
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