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The first observation of seismicity beneath the Northwestern Ethiopian plateau and its seismotectonic implications
No full textThe seismotectonics of the Northwestern (NW) Ethiopian plateau and the adjacent rift flanks were studied using local earthquake data recorded by broadband seismic networks. This include stations from the Ethiopian plateau network (2014–2016) as well as seven permanent Ethiopian seismic stations. A total of 800 earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from M
L∼1.1 to 4.6 were located. Seismicity clustered beneath the NW plateau, Fentale volcano, and the Guraghe border fault of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). The detected seismic activity beneath the NW plateau is the first observation ever made in the area, supporting recent tomographic investigation results indicating the presence of partial melt and magmatic activity. This result further show that the NW plateau exhibits greater tectonic activity relative to the southeasten plateau of the MER. Moment tensor inversion is conducted using ISOLA software for few earthquakes in the magnitude range M
w 3.7 to 4.6. We obtained a dominantly normal faulting earthquake of magnitude 3.7 at 14 km depth beneath the NW plateau implying extensional tectonics. We interpret that active thermal degradation and crustal heterogeneity contributes to the seismicity beneath the NW plateau, where cumulative observations may indicate distributed extension.</p
There was no call for immediate implementation of “Tetris” in clinical practice: Response to the commentary by Halvorsen et al. (2024)
No full textSpatial and demographic dimensions of sovereignty in Western Sahara: the authority-sponsored shaping of the ‘self’ in self-determination
No full textPerformance and robustness of single-source capture-recapture population size estimators with covariate information and potential one-inflation
No full textCapture-recapture methods for estimating the total size of elusive populations are widely-used, however, due to the choice of estimator impacting upon the results and conclusions made, the question of performance of each estimator is raised. Motivated by an application of the estimators which allow covariate information to meta-analytic data focused on the prevalence rate of completed suicide after bariatric surgery, where studies with no completed suicides did not occur, this paper explores the performance of the estimators through use of a simulation study. The simulation study addresses the performance of the Horvitz–Thompson, generalised Chao and generalised Zelterman estimators, and develops a novel, generalised, form of the modified Chao estimator to account for both covariate information and one-inflation. In addition, the performance of the analytical approach to variance computation is addressed. Given that the estimators vary in their dependence on distributional assumptions, additional simulations are utilised to address the question of the impact outliers have on performance and inference.<br/
Uni-list capture-recapture approaches, with uncertainty quantification, performance analysis and a meta-analytic application
No full textMeta-analysis is a powerful tool for evaluating numerous studies focused on the same or similar research question and integrating the results to identify a common parameter.This well-established methodology is prone to bias, so this thesis proposes the use of model-based meta-analytic and uni-list capture-recapture approaches, to compute more reliable estimates, with a focus on count data systematically missing zero counts.For the meta-analytic approach, traditional methodologies do not adequately address zero-truncated count data. This thesis develops a model-based approach with zero-truncated count models which appropriately account for the missing zeroes and an exposure variable if applicable. From these models, a maximum likelihood approach is taken with the expectation-maximisation algorithm, used to compute less biased parameter estimates. Following these approaches, both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are addressed through covariate modelling and overdispersion modelling respectively.As for the uni-list capture-recapture approach, the Horvitz-Thompson, generalised Chao’s and generalised Zelterman’s estimators are used for population size estimation, allowing for the inclusion of covariate information and an exposure variable.Also explored is the uncertainty that arises from these estimation methods, with both approximation-based variance estimation methods and the bootstrap algorithm addressed. Various approaches to the bootstrap algorithm and methods for accounting for model uncertainty are developed, in addition to alternative methods of confidence interval construction. The last focus of the thesis addresses the estimators under the presence of one-inflation, and given the poor performance of many of the existing estimators, the generalised-modified Chao’s estimator is developed to account for zero-truncation, one-inflation and covariate information.The methodologies discussed in this thesis are demonstrated through the use of real-life case study data, and assessed through a series of simulation studies
Early years nutrition: setting the standards for change
Get PDFThe early years is the critical window to lay the foundations for a healthier, happier generation. Nutrition during pregnancy, infancy and the pre-school years significantly impacts development, physical health, emotional wellbeing and even long-term academic and economic achievement. These formative years are where we have the greatest potential to close health inequalities and to embed behaviours that will last children a lifetime. The report provides not only a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing our children today, but also a set of practical, evidence-based recommendations for meaningful change
Transparent reporting of observational studies emulating a Target Trial—the TARGET statement
No full textImportance: when randomized trials are unavailable or not feasible, observational studies can be used to answer causal questions about the comparative effects of interventions by attempting to emulate a hypothetical pragmatic randomized trial (target trial). Published guidance to aid reporting of these studies is not available.Objective: to develop consensus-based guidance for reporting observational studies performed to estimate causal effects by explicitly emulating a target trial.Design, setting, and participants: the Transparent Reporting of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial (TARGET) guideline was developed using the Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research (EQUATOR) framework. The development included (1) a systematic review of reporting practices in published studies that had explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial; (2) a 2-round online survey (August 2023 to March 2024; 18 expert participants from 6 countries) to assess the importance of candidate items selected from previous research and to identify additional items; (3) a 3-day expert consensus meeting (June 2024; 18 panelists) to refine the scope of the guideline and draft the checklist; and (4) pilot of the draft checklist with stakeholders (n = 108; September 2024 to February 2025). The checklist was further refined based on feedback on successive drafts.Findings: the 21-item TARGET checklist is organized into 6 sections (abstract, introduction, methods, results, discussion, other information). TARGET provides guidance for reporting observational studies of interventions explicitly emulating a parallel group, individually randomized target trial, with adjustment for baseline confounders. Key recommendations are to (1) identify the study as an observational emulation of a target trial; (2) summarize the causal question and reason for emulating a target trial, (3) clearly specify the target trial protocol (ie, the causal estimand, identifying assumptions, data analysis plan) and how it was mapped to the observational data, and (4) report the estimate obtained for each causal estimand, its precision, and findings from additional analyses to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to assumptions, and design and analysis choices.Conclusions and relevance: application of the TARGET guideline recommendations aims to improve reporting transparency and peer review and help researchers, clinicians, and other readers interpret and apply the results
Environmental Design Approaches for Maximising Outdoor Comfort Using Microclimate-Based Strategies in Hyderabad
Get PDFThis study presents microclimate-responsive strategies to enhance outdoor comfort and community engagement at the Dr. Kallam Anji Reddy Memorial in Hyderabad, India, a composite climate site and public building case study. The methodology combined EPW climate data, climate trends, bioclimatic charts, and thermal comfort models (PMV, PET, ASHRAE/IMAC) to assess comfort and identify daily extremes. CFD, radiation, and shading analyses of iterative design proposals demonstrated that rammed earth vertical gardens and a butterfly-shaped ferrocement shade with integrated rainwater collection and cross-ventilation improved evaporative cooling, reduced solar radiation, and enhanced airflow, as confirmed by adjusted bioclimatic charts. Additional benefits included air pollution filtration, noise reduction, biodiversity gains, and support for community food growing. This study demonstrates how in-depth, site-specific hourly microclimate analyses, combined with iterative design investigations enable designers to identify truly optimized interventions that create outdoor spaces that are comfortable and usable all year-round
Indoor Temperature Prediction for Residential Heat Pumps: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach
No full textWith space heating accounting for a large proportion of UK energy demand, air-source heat pumps have become central to building decarbonisation. Successful deployment depends onaccurate prediction of indoor temperature, which is critical for maintaining thermal comfort. This study presents a novel, hybrid approach for temperature prediction, embedding the interpretability of a Resistance–Capacitance network with a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to capture unmodelled dynamics.Archetypes represented building geometry and envelope characteristics for each housing typology, supplying baseline parameters that were subsequently calibrated for individual dwellings using variational inference. The calibrated Resistance–Capacitance model achieved acceptable accuracy (RMSE = 1.38 °C), while the hybrid model reduced error further (RMSE = 0.44 °C).Clustering households and applying transfer learning reduced error by an additional 30%, highlighting the potential of physics-informed models to enable demand-response control of residential heating
How effectively do UK local authorities communicate mould guidance to diverse populations: an accessibility and equity assessment?
Get PDFEffective communication of damp and mould risks is vital for public health equity in the UK. This paper presents findings from a 10-council evaluation focused on accessibility outcomes. A ten-element rubric derived from National Health Service (NHS) and Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) guidance assessed websites for content coverage, readability, usability (click depth ≤3, WCAG 2.2 compliance), and availability of translations or alternative formats. While most councils included definitions and causes explanations, accessibility was uneven and only Newham met best-practice thresholds, offering Easy-Read or translated content. In contrast, Liverpool and Glasgow failed due to excessive click-depth, poor readability, and lack of support for non-English speakers. Translations were the weakest provision across the sample. The results highlight the urgent need for national coordination to deliver pre-translated, Easy-Read templates and ensure WCAG compliance
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