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Precipitable water as a predictor of LCL height
No full textBased on the precipitable water observations easily available from in situ and remote sensing sensors, a simple approach to define the lifting condensation level (LCL) is proposed in this study. High-resolution radiosonde and microwave radiometer observations over peninsular Indian region during the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment Integrated Ground Observational Campaign (CAIPEEX-IGOC) during the monsoon season of 2011 are used to illustrate the unique relationship. The inferences illustrate a linear relationship between the precipitable water (PW) and the LCL temperature. This relationship is especially valuable because PW is easily available as a derived parameter from various remote sensing and ground-based observations. Thus, it could be used to estimate the LCL height and perhaps also the boundary layer height. LCL height and PW correlations are established from historical radiosonde data (1984–2012). This finding could be used to illustrate the boundary layer-cloud interactions during the monsoon and is important for parameterization of boundary layer clouds in numerical models. The relationships are illustrated to be robust and seem promising to get reasonable estimates of the LCL height over other locations as well using satellite observations of PW
Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001–2008, 2: meridional currents
No full textIn the Indian Ocean, the observed variability of meridional currents (MC) at the Equator, 90°E shows distinct 10–20 day (quasi-biweekly) north–south reversals in the near-surface 40–350 m water column. Unlike the zonal currents, the seasonal variability in the MC field is strikingly absent in the annual cycle over this water column. However, the strong amplitude oscillations penetrate deep during boreal winter, boreal spring and boreal fall seasons. There is also a suggestion that they are weak and shallow during summer monsoon season during the years when the intraseasonal zonal westerly wind bursts along the equator are weak or absent. These quasi-biweekly oscillations are attributed to the westward propagating equatorially trapped mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) or Yanai waves triggered by the westward propagating meridional wind (MW) field along the equator suggesting a possibility of wind-forced response of the upper ocean. A careful examination reveals interannual modulation of this quasi-biweekly variability in the MC field. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer effects also shows a significant influence on the MC field on 10–20 day time scale. The upwelling and downwelling cycles caused in the near off-equatorial region as a result of the westward propagation of the MRG waves are noticed in the pycnocline inferred from the vertical temperature and salinity profiles recorded by a nearby TRITON CTD mooring deployed at 1.5°S, 90°E. The observed sharp differences in the MCs between years appear to be determined by the strengths of both MWs and barrier layer thickness. A suggestion of westward propagation of quasi-biweekly variability in SST along the equator with phase speed resembling that of the MRG waves is also episodically seen during most years
Bias‑correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map
No full textIf a coarse resolution dynamical model can well capture the large-scale patterns even if it has bias in smaller scales, the spatial information in smaller domains may also be retrievable. Based on this hypothesis a method has been proposed to downscale the dynamical model forecasts of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the extended range, and thus reduce the forecast spatial biases in smaller spatial scales. A hybrid of clustering and analog technique, used in a self organizing map (SOM)-based algorithm, is applied to correct the bias in the model predicted rainfall. The novelty of this method is that the bias correction and downscaling could be done at any resolution in which observation/reanalysis data is available and is independent of the model resolution in which forecast is generated. A set of composite pattern of rainfall is identified by clustering the high resolution observed rainfall using SOM. These set of composite patterns for the clustered days in each cluster centers or nodes are saved and the model forecasts for any day are compared with these patterns. The closest historical pattern is identified by calculating the minimum Euclidean distance between the model rainfall forecast and the observed clustered pattern and is termed as the bias corrected SOM-based post-processed forecast. The bias-corrected and the SOM-based reconstructed forecasts are shown to improve the annual cycle and the skill of deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts. Usage of the high resolution observational data improves the spatial pattern for smaller domain as seen from a case study for the Mahanadi basin flood during September 2011. Thus, downscaling and bias correction are both achieved by this technique
On the relationship between east equatorial Atlantic SST and ISM through Eurasian wave
No full textThe dominant mode of July–August (JA) seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are obtained by performing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first dominant mode of ISMR and its relationships with the sea surface temperature (SST), pressure level wind and geopotential height (GPH) fields are examined using gridded datasets for the period 1979–2014. The principal component of the first leading mode (PC1) obtained in the EOF analysis of JA rainfall over Indian landmass is highly correlated with north-west and central India rainfall, and anti-correlated with east-equatorial Atlantic SST (EEASST). The positive EEASST anomaly intensifies the inter-tropical convergence zone over Atlantic and west equatorial Africa which generates stationary wave meridionally, as meridional transfer of energy is strong, as the influence of background jet-streams are minimal over North Africa and Europe. The anomalous positive and negative GPH are generated over sub-tropics and extra-tropics, respectively, due to the stationary wave. This increases the climatological background steep pressure gradient between sub-tropics and extra-tropics consisting of anomalous negative GPH field over north-west (NW) Europe and vice versa for negative EEASST anomaly. The anomalous positive GPH over NW Europe acts as center of action for the propagation of a Rossby wave train to NW India via Europe consisting of anomalous high over NW of India. This intensifies the Tibetan High westward which reinforces the outbreak of monsoon activities over central and NW India
Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1
Get PDFThe National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being used for operational monsoon prediction over the Indian region. Recent studies indicate that the moist convective process in CFS is one of the major sources of uncertainty in monsoon predictions. In this study, the existing simple cloud microphysics of CFS is replaced by the six-class Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) single moment (WSM6) microphysical scheme. Additionally, a revised convective parameterization is employed to improve the performance of the model in simulating the boreal summer mean climate and intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The revised version of the model (CFSCR) exhibits a potential to improve shortcomings in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution relative to the standard CFS (CTRL), especially over the ISM region. Consistently, notable improvements are also evident in other observed ISM characteristics. These improvements are found to be associated with a better simulation of spatial and vertical distributions of cloud hydrometeors in CFSCR. A reasonable representation of the subgrid-scale convective parameterization along with cloud hydrometeors helps to improve the convective and large-scale precipitation distribution in the model. As a consequence, the simulated low-frequency boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) exhibits realistic propagation and the observed northwest-southeast rainband is well reproduced in CFSCR. Additionally, both the high and low-frequency BSISOs are better captured in CFSCR. The improvement of low and high-frequency BSISOs in CFSCR is shown to be related to a realistic phase relationship of clouds
Recent trends and tele‑connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment
No full textRecent trends, variations and tele-connections between the two large regional sub-systems over the Asian domain, the South Asian and the East Asian monsoons are explored using data for the 1901–2014 period. Based on trend analysis a dipole-type configuration with north-drought and south-flood over South as well as East Asia is observed. Two regions over South Asia, one exhibiting a significant decreasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India and the other significant increasing trend over the northern parts of the west coast of India are identified. Similarly two regions over East Asia, one over South Korea-southern parts of Japan and the other over South China are also identified both indicating a significant increasing trend in the summer monsoon rainfall. These trends are examined post 1970s. Possible factors associated with the recent trends are explored. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure and winds at lower troposphere indicates that the entire monsoon flow system appears to have shifted westwards, with the monsoon trough over South Asia indicating a westward shift by about 2–3° longitudes and the North Pacific Subtropical High over East Asia seems to have shifted by about 5–7° longitudes. These shifts are consistent with the recent rainfall trends. Furthermore, while the West Indian Ocean SSTs appear to be related with the summer monsoon rainfall over northern parts of India and over North China, the West Pacific SSTs appear to be related with the rainfall over southern parts of India and over South Korea- southern Japan sector
Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño
No full textIn general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Niño decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Niño on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Niño decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Niño decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Niño decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Niño, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Niño years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Niña conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the summer season, which are mainly due to persisting El Niño related warm SST anomalies over the Pacific. Atmospheric general circulation model simulation supports our hypothesis that El Niño decay variations modulate ISM rainfall and circulation
Assessment of PM2.5 and PM10 over Guwahati in Brahmaputra River Valley: Temporal evolution, source apportionment and meteorological dependence
No full textTemporal evolution, source apportionment and transport pathways of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) are analysed over Guwahati, located in the Brahmaputra River Valley (BRV), as a function of meteorological dynamics. During the study period (July 2013–June 2014), the mean PM2.5 and PM10 mass concentrations were found to be 52 ± 37 and 91 ± 60 μg m−3, respectively, both exhibiting higher concentrations during December–March and very low during summer. The annual mean ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was 0.57 ± 0.11, varying from 0.24 to 0.86, suggesting dominance of anthropogenic vs natural emissions during winter and spring, respectively. Diurnal variation reveals higher PM concentrations during morning (∼9:00 local time (LT)) and evening (∼23:00 LT) and lowest around ∼14:00 to 17:00 LT due to influence of dilution processes and higher mixing-layer height over the region. Bivariate plots and Conditional Bivariate Probability Function (CBPF) analysis showed that the highest PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are mostly associated with weak northwestern winds (<1.5 ms−1) in all seasons except spring, when the highest PM10 are for southwestern winds above 4–6 ms−1, indicating dust transport from SW Asia. Analysis reveals that the local emissions, transported aerosols, along with seasonally-changed air masses, meteorology and boundary-layer dynamics control the concentrations, evolution and fractions of PM over BRV. The turbid air masses transported over Guwahati mostly from western and southwestern directions contribute to higher PM concentrations, either carrying anthropogenic pollution from Indo-Gangetic Plains or locally and LRT dust from BRV and western India, respectively
Diurnal Evolution of Urban Heat Island and Its Impact on Air Quality by Using Ground Observations (SAFAR) over New Delhi
Get PDFThe paper presents a study of urban heat island (UHI) intensity and its impact on air quality by using the System of Air Quality Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) network observations over Delhi during the clear sky month of December of 2013 and 2015. It is found that in the month of December 2013 and 2015 the UHI shows a peak in late evening around 20:00 hrs. The concentration of PM2.5 shows a bimodal peak in the month of December of both the years 2013 and 2015 which is due to the enhanced anthropogenic activity during the traffic hours. The formation of UHI during the late evening traffic hours is due to the enhancement in the concentration of PM2.5 due to the enhanced anthropogenic activity with higher ground heat flux and lower PBLH and wind speed which leads to both the years 2013 and 2015 during the month of December. It is also found that UHI intensity shows a positive correlation (r = 0.57) with PM2.5 concentration and a negative correlation (r = -0.40) with wind speed and the PM2.5 concentration also shows a negative correlation (r = -0.57) with wind speed during December 2013. Whereas during December 2015 it has found that UHI intensity has a positive correlation (r = 0.65) with PM2.5 concentration and a negative correlation (r = -0.45) with wind speed and the PM2.5 concentration also shows a negative correlation (r = -0.57) with wind speed
Automated Identification of Oceanic Fronts for Operational Generation of Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories
Get PDFPFZs, are essentially the frontal structures as identified from the satellite images of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll concentration. These regions are known for fish aggregation and provide cost-effectiveness in offshore fishing operations. Subjective
identification of fronts may lead to human-errors, non-negotiable beyond a limit. To overcome this, we propose utilization of tools that help automated identification of the frontal structures. This approach not only removes the errors, but also helps shorten the time period of the operational process-chai